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August 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Don't usually post here in the summer but todays winds are worthy. 133000 customers with no power at peak (do the math- that's all of DSM metro and burbs) What got me was that 50 mph winds lasted near

I had to rub my eyes when I saw these temps for the opening days of September...@CentralNeb, the Euro is making your wish come true...daytime highs in the 60's???  @Fargo, your gonna feel the Autumn c

Hello from the Black hills of South Dakota! Never been here before and up here with the in-laws; what a geologic wonder! Took a train today from Hill City to Keystone and the outcrop of limestone and

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I remember driving through all those towns down I-80 this past Wednesday. I could only imagine what it looked like as this storm complex barreled through. I recall Iowa City was a college town? Don’t remember exactly but that seemed like a lively and busy city.

Yes the University of Iowa is here. I get my teeth fixed at the College of Dentistry. Also U of I Hospitals and clinics. You passed close to Bud’s home and I’m around 10 miles south of I-80.

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Yes the University of Iowa is here. I get my teeth fixed at the College of Dentistry. Also U of I Hospitals and clinics. You passed close to Bud’s home and I’m around 10 miles south of I-80.

If you were on I-80 just W of DSM about 15 miles-- within 3 miles of my place.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yes the University of Iowa is here. I get my teeth fixed at the College of Dentistry. Also U of I Hospitals and clinics. You passed close to Bud’s home and I’m around 10 miles south of I-80.

I’m about 1/2 mile north of I-80 near exit 403. Too bad north Lincoln is the slightly ugly part of town!

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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Also! Forgot to mention we had debris fly over our building as the storm hit! There was lawn chair seats and a tarp that flew over head. Pretty crazy! I feel for you all in Iowa :( you guys got hit so hard. Hope you’re all okay!! My thoughts are with all of you who have to deal with cleanups, what a nightmare :(

 

 

trim.EC19EC68-1DF3-454F-A7F8-B44DB658E9C7.MOV

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What a day of weather to start a new work week.  I didn't realize how bad the city got hit till I saw all the footage online.  Here's some more footage of the possible tornado damage near Rodgers Park: https://www.instagram.com/p/CDu_eE6D3dG/?igshid=1iuairu0e61k5

 

Here's a neat graphic from LOT showing the track of the derecho on radar...

 

 

 

For those who are still without power and may remain without power for at least a couple more days, at least the weather is cooperating today and tomorrow with very comfy DP's and temps hovering around 80F.  Nice cool nights as well with temps in the 50's.  I remember losing power and having to sleep through a very soupy and humid night.  That's the worst!

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Shout out to all the meteorologists and NWS who were tracking this severe wx set up and warning people way in advance.  From their efforts, there were ZERO fatalities in Chicago.  Not sure about other places in NE/IA/S WI, but locally back home no deaths reported.

 

Some more pictures and vid's of the storm complex....those 2 x 4's were out in IA...the video is from a suburb just west of the city which likely became the tornado.

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1292937768394424320

 

 

Cedar Rapids, IA:  https://twitter.com/i/status/1292884786130964481

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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My friend lives in a mobile home in Marion. Their skirting is gone but otherwise they're completely fine.

 

Another friend lives in Hiawatha and their yard got wiped out.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Some good news in the wx dept if your seeking some cooler weather as the trend in the modeling is showing a rather significant cool shot early next week for many of you.  The EPS has been leading the way with this pattern and GEFS playing catch up.  The aforementioned cool down may have some legs for the eastern Sub leading us into the second half of Aug as Summer slowly comes to a close.

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png  

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My phone service still is intermittent. Maybe the cell towers had damage and it’s not just network congestion. Thanks for the links Tom and whoever. I’m mostly on mobile and also use my phone as a WiFi hotspot for other devices so when my phone doesn’t work I have no internet over half of the time it seems like. I have tons of notifications I wanna check on Twitter yet.

 

I sure hope it rains more. This rain will last only for a day or so.

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My wind gauge clocked an 87 mph gust from this storm. My goal when I moved here was to hear the Chicago tornado sirens. It happened today! Woo! Also there’s a lot of damage — the tornado was reported a few blocks north of my location. Was the best storm ever.

 

 

attachicon.giftrim.CDCE58E4-6EE2-47BD-B6F8-2E3383C33F83.MOV

It has been confirmed!

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Another night managing the generator. Still no power around here. Cell service is getting better. It looks like peak wind gust from that line of 112mph was a couple miles to my NW. The damage is unbelievably widespread. Went to multiple parts of town today and all looked the same.

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Another night managing the generator. Still no power around here. Cell service is getting better. It looks like peak wind gust from that line of 112mph was a couple miles to my NW. The damage is unbelievably widespread. Went to multiple parts of town today and all looked the same.

Did you do any video footage? I’m curious to see what the aftermath looks like. The videos I saw during the height of the storm were something you see when the eye wall of a Hurricane rips through. I can’t beleive how long lasting the winds were.

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Meantime, it's a warm and somewhat muggy morning here in AZ 84F/58F.  In fact, DP's have been rising since yesterday for the southern half of the state as some monsoon moisture is trying to make its way up into the valley but having a very tough time.  I saw some gorgeous anvil cloud tops to my south from storms near the Tucson area.  That's all that I'm getting though here for the time being.  

 

Unfortunately, we are starting an Excessive Heat Warning tomorrow through Monday!  5-days straight of intense heat with peak temps reaching up to 114-115F near PHX metro Fri-Sun.

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I finally got a chance to drive through Cedar Rapids and wow, what a mess.  i'm so thankful that we didn't get it nearly as bad here.  And it was still really bad here, so I can only imagine how bad it was in CR during the storm.  Some areas of town are starting to get power back, which seems incredible considering the amount of power lines still lying on the ground.  Overall though most of the town is without power, internet or cell coverage.  People are driving in miles every direction to find places that have power and gas.  I'm hosting 6 co-workers at my house today just to work and login as they have no power at home and our office is still out of commission.  We're thinking we can go back to the office tomorrow though.  As if 2020 couldn't get any worse or weirder.  

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Did you do any video footage? I’m curious to see what the aftermath looks like. The videos I saw during the height of the storm were something you see when the eye wall of a Hurricane rips through. I can’t beleive how long lasting the winds were.

Yes I do have some decent footage before I high tailed it to my safe place. Once I have the means I’ll try to upload. It was like experiencing a hurricane. It just would not stop.

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I just heard that 1/3 of the crop in IA was devastated.  That's going to impact prices for food I'd imagine and for ethanol fuel. My deepest sympathies for those who were directly effected from this severe storm.

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I finally got a chance to drive through Cedar Rapids and wow, what a mess.  i'm so thankful that we didn't get it nearly as bad here.  And it was still really bad here, so I can only imagine how bad it was in CR during the storm.  Some areas of town are starting to get power back, which seems incredible considering the amount of power lines still lying on the ground.  Overall though most of the town is without power, internet or cell coverage.  People are driving in miles every direction to find places that have power and gas.  I'm hosting 6 co-workers at my house today just to work and login as they have no power at home and our office is still out of commission.  We're thinking we can go back to the office tomorrow though.  As if 2020 couldn't get any worse or weirder.  

Your the type of people we need more of in this world.  Lending a helping hand for our fellow neighbors.  Hope it gets better for everyone.

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A bunch of people from my community went to CR. today to help clean up. I wanted to go but yesterday I started with a bad sore throat again and feeling pretty crappy today. I just had this type of sickness around 2 months ago with barely detectable episodes of it in between. It sucks and I’m not sure what’s going on. The first time I thought it probably was Covid-19 since others had symptoms, but I don’t know. I’ll have more opportunities to help as some are organizing groups to clean up and rebuild at various places.

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Looks like some storms near or over St. Paul Storm. Wish I could get the rainfall they are often receiving!

Meanwhile the drought around here will continue to slowly intensify, as our modest chances for rain this week are continuing to dwindle away (the trend of 2020 weather-wise here). The isolated bouts of heavy rain last week helped out in the short term, however it wasn't prolonged or widespread enough.

 

The Omaha Eppley Airfield reporting station will pass the 9 inch deficit tomorrow for annual rainfall... last year we were WAY up, this year are WAY down... guess it's how the law of averages works around here anymore.

 

Still seems absolutely amazing that our area got caught in some of the damaging winds (although nothing like our friends to east in Iowa and Illinois experienced) from Monday's derecho as it started to get its act together, while almost every reporting station in the Omaha metro area reported a trace or less of rainfall. Thankfully the cooler weather on the horizon for next week will help keep things from getting too out of control if we don't get much, if any rainfall over the next few days.  

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Got commercial power back here at 1pm today. Power was out 50 hours. Some family members still without power and it's not exactly cool out.

Luci lights, battery packs and Yeti grade coolers saved hundreds of dollars of meat for my self.

Commercial power. Don't take it for granted

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The NWS here in PHX issued the Excessive Heat Warning yesterday and it rolls through Monday Tuesday.  I could see them conceivably extend it through the entire week next week if the Euro is right.  My goodness, this would be an oppressive heat wave.  Here is our 7-day forecast....https://www.abc15.com/weather/forecast/todays-forecast/phoenix-arizona-summer-weather-forecast-2020

 

 

Nothing but 114-115F temps!  Wowza!

 

At this time, it is 90F with a 54F DP which makes it feel a tad humid.  High clouds are keeping a blanket on temps here this morning.  I'll tell ya, yesterday I felt every bit of moisture in the air with DP's in the upper 50's.

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The JMA weeklies are showing a rather dry and somewhat normal pattern for our Sub the rest of this month after next weeks cooler pattern.

 

Week 2 temps/precip...

 

Y202008.D1212_gl2.png

 

Y202008.D1212_gl2.png

 

 

 

 

Signs still pointing towards a seasonal open to September....the Euro weeklies have been suggesting a cool shot coming down the Upper MW into the majority of our central Sub towards Labor Day weekend.

 

 

 

Temps...

 

Y202008.D1212_gl2.png

 

 

Precip...looks wetter with the likelihood of a lot of fronts coming down from Canada...

 

Y202008.D1212_gl0.png

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Amazing, the NWS now us upped the amount of Tornado's to 11 for N IL during this derecho event and also increased the winds for the Rogers Park twister which firmly places it into a F-1.  Based on the images and footage I've seen, I think that makes complete sense.

 

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I've been in Duluth (AMAZING city) for the past few days, but I'll be coming home today in time for the enhanced straight line wind risk tonight.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Holy friggin’ sizzle...I’m at the pool but leaving in a few bc I can’t handle this Heat...been here for abou an hour...currently 109F/43F...RF 117F! It’s...Hot...Folks!

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First day of school for us today.  All went well.  The beat goes on weather wise.  85 degrees with heat index of 95 and a 72 dew at 2:30 PM.  Just gross as I stepped outside.  So looking forward to a cold front with low dews.  Been a long summer.  

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On average there are 16 tornadoes in Michigan each year. Well this year Michigan just recorded its first one of 2020. It occurred in the UP in Iron County near Peavy Pond. The tornado was rated a high end EF1 with winds reported at around 105 MPH. Damage was limited to downed trees and power lines.

At this time it is sunny and a warm 88 here at my house.

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60% chance of watch issuance.

 

mcd1477.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1477

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0417 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

 

Areas affected...northwest MN...far eastern ND

 

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

 

Valid 132117Z - 132245Z

 

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

 

SUMMARY...Convective initiation appears imminent between Grand Forks

and Fargo as of 415pm CDT. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are

forecast to develop as the cap weakens further.

 

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows the initial signs of

glaciation with storms near the Red River (415pm CDT). A mid-level

accas plume has overspread northwest MN into southeast ND on the

southern fringe of large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level

shortwave trough over Manitoba.

 

Surface analysis places a warm frontal zone from northeast ND

east-southeastward into northern MN near Duluth. Temperatures south

of the boundary are in the 80s with lower 70s dewpoints and

temperatures have remained generally in the mid-upper 70s over far

northern MN where a stratus deck has impeded stronger surface

heating. Objective analysis/RAP forecast soundings show a very to

extremely unstable airmass located over southeast ND into adjacent

parts of MN with MLCAPE 4000-4500 J/kg. The limiting factors for

severe are the weak large-scale forcing for ascent and modest

effective shear (ranging from 20 to 30 kt). The strongest

deep-layer shear is relatively confined near and north of the warm

front where storm organization potential will be enhanced due to the

stronger shear. Storms may eventually be capable of transient

rotation primarily near the warm front where flow is locally backed

with southeast surface winds. The stronger storms that can become

established may be capable of a large hail/severe gust threat.

Although tornado potential will likely be muted by modest deep-layer

shear, appreciable curvature to the hodograph near the warm front

may yield a localized tornado risk for 1-2 hours before storm cold

pools negatively interfere with one another.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Not a big fan of severe potential right now. The boundary looks to be immediately on top of me. Western Minnesota should fare better.

 

 

It is VERY muggy right now. I drove into town through a light shower. It was just enough to moisten the air but not enough to cool things down at all, and as a result it feels very tropical outside. 82/74°F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It is still 81°F at 11pm. Nasty.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Nice wake-up call.

 

 

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
558 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Clay County in northwestern Minnesota...
Southeastern Cass County in southeastern North Dakota...

* Until 700 AM CDT.

* At 558 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Frontier, or
7 miles south of Fargo, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
Rustad and Oxbow around 600 AM CDT.
Prairie Rose, Frontier and Briarwood around 605 AM CDT.
Moorhead, Dilworth and Reile`s Acres around 620 AM CDT.
North River and Fargo around 625 AM CDT.
Oakport and Glyndon around 630 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Moorhead
Airport.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 29 between mile markers 49 and 76.
Interstate 94 in North Dakota between mile markers 342 and 352.
Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 1 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Picked up about an inch of rain from that last wave. Should get hit by the wave along the cold front this morning.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Happy Friday!  The beat goes on here in the valley of the Sun Heat!  Yesterday, we tied the record at PHX of 115F and today we are forecasted to top 116F.  Some notable Heat stats here in the valley:

 

1) Most days at 115F or better: 7 days and counting (old record 7 from 1974)

2) Most days at 110F or more: 37 days and counting

3) Most lows in the 90's: 20 days and counting (old record 15 from 2013)

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Yesterday’s official high at Grand Rapids was 86. At my house and at Muskegon the high was 88 and to the east at Lansing it was 85. The overnight low both at the airport and here at my house morning was 64.  At this time, it is 66 here at my house.

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Here's a tweet from the NWS at Chicago and an update on the final count of tornado's from the Derecho....15...

 

 

 

(1/2) Here's a final map of all 15 (!) tornadoes that touched down during the 8/10/2020 derecho event. We also shaded areas where widespread straight line winds >75 mph likely occurred. Other pockets of enhanced straight-line wind damage likely happened outside the shading.

 

 

1.jpg

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Wow, that is some real heat. I just checked the record high for August there is 117 on August 14, 2015. The reading of 115 is in a tie for the 3rd hottest August day there and 116 is the 2nd hottest.

Happy Friday!  The beat goes on here in the valley of the Sun Heat!  Yesterday, we tied the record at PHX of 115F and today we are forecasted to top 116F.  Some notable Heat stats here in the valley:

 

1) Most days at 115F or better: 7 days and counting (old record 7 from 1974)

2) Most days at 110F or more: 37 days and counting

3) Most lows in the 90's: 20 days and counting (old record 15 from 2013)

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Wow, that is some real heat. I just checked the record high for August there is 117 on August 14, 2015. The reading of 115 is in a tie for the 3rd hottest August day there and 116 is the 2nd hottest.

Indeed it is!  In August we typically have more moisture in the air due to the Monsoon but it has been lacking, thus the extreme hot temps are persisting.  Usually, the humidity will keep temps at bay but not this year.  Last month, PHX topped out at 118F but I doubt we get that Hot this month.  We'll get close today but prob not that hot.  Nonetheless, I'm actually looking forward to potentially tying another record here today.

 

The west valley got hit by some very slow moving heavy storms that dumped 1-2" of rain near Buckeye which is where a lot of the local crop is grown (cotton, lettuce, spinach, alfalfa, citrus fruits).

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@Tom you're baking down there!

And that is quite the story over there in N IL. 15 tornadoes!!?

It’s crazy I tell ya! I’m surprised there aren’t more fires TBH. I also think it’s also due to the lack of thunderstorms which can produce dry lighting and spark fires. Looking out into the extended, when I get back home, the weather is looking mighty fine! I’m ok with the Heat for now...but ya, it’s friggin’ Hot my man!

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Sounds like this is the last day of the humidity for awhile, thank goodness.  My son is a freshman, and at our school 9-12 grade football practices together.  He is just exhausted when he gets home due to the high dews.  Tomorrow looks like dews in the 50's and NWS Hastings says next week will be warm but dews in the 50's to low 60's is much more comfortable.  A/C at schools is running non stop.

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Someone fell asleep at their desk at FGF. No warning in Fargo despite 70mph gusts.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Someone fell asleep at their desk at FGF. No warning in Fargo despite 70mph gusts.

How many rounds of wx have you had since last night? 2 or 3??? Cashin’ in nicely.

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Been super busy last couple of days. Had to fly to Boston-NYC-Wash DC on business. Very pleased w aircraft regulations as well. Airports are much less crowded, something I am not accustomed to.

 

Anyways, so, back in MI, temps here are at 83F and a muggy dew.

 

I heard about TS Josephine. Looks like it is a fishstorm and will remain at that cat.

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