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August 2020 Pacific Northwest WX Obs and Discussion


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Had a warm time camping, but thanks to the elevation it was a lot more pleasant than what the lowlands experienced. I will say, Cascade River and Cascade Pass area of the North Cascades National Park

Same with Victoria, I've seen some flashes and heard distant thunder but nothing has come close yet. Different story further north on the island, my brother captured these from Nanoose looking SE over

In Eugene today for my wife s surgery. Pleasant day. And seems like the procedure went well.

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I was in some hot springs this morning that were 105. We got in a pool after that was 86.

 

77 sounds frigid!

We need a Melbourne-style military lock down to keep your butt at home for good!

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Sad story from Lacamas Lake this afternoon. 10 year old girl accidentally fell in and is being treated 2nd and 3rd degree burns.☹️

Horrible!

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A few cool photos posted on FB but this one was very unique!!

Very creative!!!

 

I was able to get a few photos of the moon tonight before the clouds rolled in. Interesting clouds this afternoon/evening as well although I wish they had moved in a bit later so the sunset wasn’t obscured.

FDA72244-060C-4B0A-97D9-650A85872DA1.jpeg

8A6BF705-96BF-45F7-9FC1-F3EEDFB7EB2D.jpeg

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-80

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I was able to get a few photos of the moon tonight before the clouds rolled in. Interesting clouds this afternoon/evening as well although I wish they had moved in a bit later so the sunset wasn’t obscured.

 

 

Looks like people in that neighborhood water their lawns.

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Nice looking gfs run tonight for those of us who are hoping for rain soon :)

Happy to share some of Isaias’s 5-7”.

 

Trigger warning for Tim. Viewer discretion advised.

 

eNzx1h1.jpg

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Happy to share some of Isaias’s 5-7”.

 

Trigger warning for Tim. Viewer discretion advised.

 

 

 

I like periods of heavy rain.

 

I don't like days of clouds and drizzle and chilly temps in the summer.     That is very different than an interesting period of warm, humid rain and thunderstorms.     ^_^

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I like periods of heavy rain.

 

I don't like days of clouds and drizzle and chilly temps in the summer. That is very different than an interesting period of warm, humid rain and thunderstorms. ^_^

Agreed. Rain with temperatures in the mid 70s after a hot day is quite refreshing. Especially if it clears out after that and smells nice.

 

64 degrees with drizzle and clouds so thick that it looks like sunrise at 9 am in the summer is depressing.

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Apples to apples on the maps here... Cliff Mass named the "blob" in the summer of 2014 and he said it developed in late 2013.

 

Here is the SSTA map from the summer of 2014:

 

2014.png

 

 

And here is today...

 

2020-5.png

 

 

Say what you want about the meaning of the blob... chicken and egg and all that other stuff. But to say its completely dead and gone is just silly.

 

For reference... here the map from the summer of 2012:

 

2012-1.png

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Probably won’t get much with this system moving through today...some drizzle/light rain with maybe 0.01” at best or maybe nothing at all. System later this week looks like the best soaking since early July. Will be good for the mountains to get some rain across the region to keep the fire danger at bay...and good for everyone’s gardens/lawns in the lowlands.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-80

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Clear with a low of 57 this morning. Up to 64 currently.

 

Looking at Tim's vaunted 06z GFS, looks coolish with a few week systems in the mid-range. Not bad not bad. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looking at Tim's vaunted 06z GFS, looks coolish with a few week systems in the mid-range. Not bad not bad.

 

Will be awhile before I believe the models when they show cool weather after last week’s travesty. I’m assuming whatever troughs shown will end up digging offshore and pumping heat over us.

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Will be awhile before I believe the models when they show cool weather after last week’s travesty. I’m assuming whatever troughs shown will end up digging offshore and pumping heat over us.

 

Yeah from a nice soaking rain to 95-100 degree heat in the Western Valleys with record highs east side. UGH.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looking at Tim's vaunted 06z GFS, looks coolish with a few week systems in the mid-range. Not bad not bad. 

 

It is my 06Z GFS... and it is definitely vaunted!   :rolleyes:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was pretty happy we happened to get out of town that week.

 

I imagined so. It really was not that bad. If we just have that one solid week of heat, and the rest of our 90+ days come on 1-2 day warm/heat spikes. I can live with that. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z GFS shows an anomalously chilly day on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 60s in the Seattle area.

 

But then shows a nice rebound starting Friday through the weekend similar to what the vaunted 06Z run showed.    Much warmer and drier than the 00Z run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I imagined so. It really was not that bad. If we just have that one solid week of heat, and the rest of our 90+ days come on 1-2 day warm/heat spikes. I can live with that.

 

I would agree. Although I am skeptical it will be our only long bout of heat this summer.

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Partly sunny and 69F this morning. Nice for breakfast on the deck this holiday Monday.

 

Veggie garden has finally taken off with the warmer sunny weather the past couple weeks. We could probably eat fresh veggies most days for the rest of the summer.

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Partly sunny and 69F this morning. Nice for breakfast on the deck this holiday Monday.

 

Veggie garden has finally taken off with the warmer sunny weather the past couple weeks. We could probably eat fresh veggies most days for the rest of the summer.

 

 

What holiday?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Check out the insane warm bias on the EPS seasonal this year. Both June/July.

 

All of the model guidance has been over-bullish on western ridging this summer, as well.

 

SFL9n76.png

Ek5P1dS.png

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Partly sunny and 69F this morning. Nice for breakfast on the deck this holiday Monday.

Veggie garden has finally taken off with the warmer sunny weather the past couple weeks. We could probably eat fresh veggies most days for the rest of the summer.

Do you put veggies on the burgers

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Check out the insane warm bias on the EPS seasonal this year. Both June/July.

 

All of the model guidance has been over-bullish on western ridging this summer, as well.

 

 

 

 

Ironically.... the EPS has been much better in predicting the cool periods in the PNW this summer compared to last year.  

 

Last summer it seems like it was always showing anomalous warmth after day 7 and it never seemed to arrive.    This summer it has frequently showed cool periods in that range and those periods have generally verified.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ironically.... the EPS has been much better in predicting the cool periods in the PNW this summer compared to last year.

 

Last summer it seems like it was always showing anomalous warmth after day 7 and it never seemed to arrive. This summer it has frequently showed cool periods in that range and those periods have generally verified.

EPSPTSD

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Ironically.... the EPS has been much better in predicting the cool periods in the PNW this summer compared to last year.

 

Last summer it seems like it was always showing anomalous warmth after day 7 and it never seemed to arrive. This summer it has frequently showed cool periods in that range and those periods have generally verified.

D11-15 still has a notable warm bias out there.

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D11-15 still has a notable warm bias out there.

 

 

Maybe... that is a little farther out.     Its definitely been better than last summer though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I do wonder when the wet season is going to start this year. I’ve been talking to Phil about the overall pattern, he says that -EPO / dry is favored going into fall. Pacific typhoon season is going to be anemic this year so that reduces the probability of remnants getting sucked up into the jet stream and giving us some early rain.

 

On the other hand, if we’re following 2016’s script, that year was the wettest October on record here.

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