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August 2020 Pacific Northwest WX Obs and Discussion


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Had a warm time camping, but thanks to the elevation it was a lot more pleasant than what the lowlands experienced. I will say, Cascade River and Cascade Pass area of the North Cascades National Park

Same with Victoria, I've seen some flashes and heard distant thunder but nothing has come close yet. Different story further north on the island, my brother captured these from Nanoose looking SE over

In Eugene today for my wife s surgery. Pleasant day. And seems like the procedure went well.

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Most famines historically have been the result of drought.

Most mass deaths in human history have been the direct result of morning clouds and highs in the low to mid 70s in August.

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Most famines historically have been the result of drought.

 

 

Yes... that is also unfavorable weather.  

 

I was thinking more about the people yearning for a return to the LIA and cold summers with lots of below freezing temps and of course brutal winters.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Would be unfortunate to see the explosive fire potential diminished with an ugly day or two of light, occasional 70 degree rain showers. 

 

That is going to happen in WA tomorrow.    And probably again next Tuesday.    

 

Personally... I like having one rain event per week in the summer.    Just not on the weekend!   The problem is that it rarely works out that way up here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cliff Mass also said today and this past weekend that we are doing great in terms of wildfires.  

 

The bottom line is that at this point there is no reason to expect an above-normal wildfire and wildfire smoke season.  In fact, good reason to expect less wildfires and smoke than normal.  One issue to take off your worry list.
 
 
But then again... wildfires are an important of the ecosystem and we can't prevent it from happening.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That is going to happen in WA tomorrow.    And probably again next Tuesday.    

 

Personally... I like having one rain event per week in the summer.    Just not on the weekend!   The problem is that it rarely works out that way up here.

 

We might crack 0.02".

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We might crack 0.02".

 

 

You said a day with scattered showers and clouds with a high around 70.    We got that locked up for tomorrow in the Seattle area and most of western WA for that matter. 

 

12Z ECMWF says next Tuesday will be similar.    Its even trying to follow the once a week plan... at least for now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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NOAA is upgrading their ensemble system to FV3-GFS core -- a very welcome and long-awaited improvement. A parallel data feed is becoming available. I will collect and post graphics






 










 










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There will be 30 perturbed ensembles, 1-control = 31 members out to 16-days. This is the first GEFS upgrade in 5-years & based upon the FV3 model core. Every 00z forecast will extend to 35-days for sub-seasonal applications



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Cliff Mass also said today and this past weekend that we are doing great in terms of wildfires.  

 

The bottom line is that at this point there is no reason to expect an above-normal wildfire and wildfire smoke season.  In fact, good reason to expect less wildfires and smoke than normal.  One issue to take off your worry list.
 
 
But then again... wildfires are an important of the ecosystem and we can't prevent it from happening.  

 

 

Does he still think that we've done a great job with the virus?

Low. Solar.

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NOAA is upgrading their ensemble system to FV3-GFS core -- a very welcome and long-awaited improvement. A parallel data feed is becoming available. I will collect and post graphics
 
 
Replying to
There will be 30 perturbed ensembles, 1-control = 31 members out to 16-days. This is the first GEFS upgrade in 5-years & based upon the FV3 model core. Every 00z forecast will extend to 35-days for sub-seasonal applications

 

 

Oh boy...

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Low. Solar.

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Does he still think that we've done a great job with the virus?

 

 

Cliff's take on the virus...

 

There are some folks and many media pundits who are claiming this COVID disaster is all the fault of President Trump and that things would have been much better under a Democratic President.
 
This is either very naive or very cynical.
 
There is no doubt that the President and his administration has been startlingly misinformed and ineffective. His abysmal leadership has made things much worse.
 
But the problems noted above are not recent developments and have been allowed to fester in recent administrations, including the 8-years of President Obama.  I suspect we would not have been in much better place if Hilary Clinton would have won, because the basic institutional infrastructure was not put in place.
 
That is what we must do together as a nation, following the example of the weather prediction community.  And speaking as one of them, we would be glad to help.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My son is absolutely dreading all of the students returning next week.  He's so funny, 4 months ago he was threatening to take this year off because he did not want to do classes online (1st semester Junior year is apparently the worst for Physics majors), but now he's all wound up because most of the upper level classes will be in person.....kids..... :rolleyes:

 

Yeah...15,000 students returning back is going to be an interesting experiment to say the least! 

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Nice ECMWF run... something for everyone.

 

A couple quick shots of rain and plenty of summery days but no heat in sight.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah...15,000 students returning back is going to be interesting experiment to say the least! 

 

 

My son just left for Pullman... moving into an apartment.  

 

I have to imagine that Pullman is about to become the biggest hotspot in WA state.     Hopefully all those kids don't need to interact with many older people.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cliff's take on the virus...

 

There are some folks and many media pundits who are claiming this COVID disaster is all the fault of President Trump and that things would have been much better under a Democratic President.
 
This is either very naive or very cynical.
 
There is no doubt that the President and his administration has been startlingly misinformed and ineffective. His abysmal leadership has made things much worse.
 
But the problems noted above are not recent developments and have been allowed to fester in recent administrations, including the 8-years of President Obama.  I suspect we would not have been in much better place if Hilary Clinton would have won, because the basic institutional infrastructure was not put in place.
 
That is what we must do together as a nation, following the example of the weather prediction community.  And speaking as one of them, we would be glad to help.

 

 

That's a much more reasonable take than his initial one.

Low. Solar.

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Having the GFS go out 35 days will definitely increase our chances for cold and snow.  

 

Well... at the least the discussion about possible cold and snow which is most of the fun anyways.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My son just left for Pullman... moving into an apartment.  

 

I have to imagine that Pullman is about to become the biggest hotspot in WA state.     Hopefully all those kids don't need to interact with many older people.

 

Yeah I'm shocked that they haven't at least shutdown the dorms and food cafeteria areas. Gallatin County is already not doing great and I'm not sure how we'll avoid it getting a whole lot worse without some sort of college restrictions.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I'm down in Park City UT this week and the heat here is brutal! Heats up a lot quicker and takes a lot longer to cool down at night compared to Bozeman.

 

I always envisioned this place being cool'ish but apparently 7,000ft is still not high enough!

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I'm down in Park City UT this week and the heat here is brutal! Heats up a lot quicker and takes a lot longer to cool down at night compared to Bozeman.

 

I always envisioned this place being cool'ish but apparently 7,000ft is still not high enough!

 

 

Low oxygen!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm down in Park City UT this week and the heat here is brutal! Heats up a lot quicker and takes a lot longer to cool down at night compared to Bozeman.

 

I always envisioned this place being cool'ish but apparently 7,000ft is still not high enough!

 

Looks like they're having a bit of a heatwave there now. But only 5-10 degrees above normal...SLC is definitely warmer than I'd like in the summer. Average highs around 92-93 this time of year, with average lows in the mid 60s.

 

(Yes, Phil. We know this is still preferable to what you endure.)

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Low. Solar.

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Looks like they're having a bit of a heatwave there now. But only 5-10 degrees above normal...SLC is definitely warmer than I'd like in the summer. Average highs around 92-93 this time of year, with average lows in the mid 60s.

 

(Yes, Phil. We know this is still preferable to what you endure.)

 

I honestly do not know how people live in SLC. 100 degrees there again today making it the 6th day above 100 in the past 7 days.

 

The heat is relentless and the air quality is generally bad all summer and even sometimes in the winter.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I can already see the future of Andrew saying “Wow, great 0z run” as it takes away our short term chances of snow, but gives the foothills a wicked storm on day 29.

You know me so well.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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These first few days of August have been nice. Mid to upper 70s so far for highs this month. 73 currently. Next week or so looks decent as well.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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81 here with a few puffy cumulus clouds floating around... picture postcard summer weather.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I went down a Wikipedia rabbit hole last night starting with the 1619 Project and ended up reading all about the Mayflower voyage and the colonists trying to survive the first winter.

 

After many hardships, . . . the Pilgrim Fathers first set foot December, 1620 upon a bare rock on the bleak coast of Massachusetts Bay, while all around the earth was covered with deep snow. . . Dreary, indeed, was the prospect before them. Exposure and privations had prostrated one half of the men before the first blow of the ax had been struck to build a habitation. . . . One by one perished. The governor and his wife died in April 1621; and on the first of that month, forty-six of the one hundred emigrants were in their graves, nineteen of whom were signers of the Mayflower Compact.[30]

 

I was thinking that the last couple generations are probably the first in human history with the luxury of cheering for terrible weather. Survival often depended on favorable weather conditions in the winter and definitely in the summer for growing food. Some people on here are trail blazers. :)

It was even harder back then because the folks couldn't prepare for bad weather like how we can today with the weather models we have at our disposal.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Storms coming!

 

I haven't posted too much lately. Only so many places to post things ;)

 

Oh by the way, this is the 5th time since 2012 we have had a thunderstorm on August 5 in K-Falls. Isn't that strange :P

There was even a 3 year in a row stretch (2014/2015/2016) which thunder occurred on this date.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Maybe with the new evening FV3 I wonder if we will start to see a day-14 rug-pull instead of day 8 this winter?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

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Man, the tropical forcing coming up looks as ideal for a cool western August as it possibly could in this era.

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Ryan Maue

 

@RyanMaue

 

 

 

 

NOAA is upgrading their ensemble system to FV3-GFS core -- a very welcome and long-awaited improvement. A parallel data feed is becoming available. I will collect and post graphics

@weathermodels_

@RyanMaue

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Replying to

@RyanMaue

There will be 30 perturbed ensembles, 1-control = 31 members out to 16-days. This is the first GEFS upgrade in 5-years & based upon the FV3 model core. Every 00z forecast will extend to 35-days for sub-seasonal applications

Finally.

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Yeah...15,000 students returning back is going to be an interesting experiment to say the least!

My classes got bumped online again.

 

Taking particle physics III this semester. Gonna be a b*tch without campus resources available.

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Looks like they're having a bit of a heatwave there now. But only 5-10 degrees above normal...SLC is definitely warmer than I'd like in the summer. Average highs around 92-93 this time of year, with average lows in the mid 60s.

 

(Yes, Phil. We know this is still preferable to what you endure.)

100+ w/ mid-90s heat indices > mid-90s w/ 100+ heat indices. Not even debatable.

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78 currently...don’t think we will make it to 80 today. Tomorrow we might just get to 70 for a change from recent norms. Lots of upper 70s and low 80s the past couple weeks.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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Cliff Mass also said today and this past weekend that we are doing great in terms of wildfires.

 

The bottom line is that at this point there is no reason to expect an above-normal wildfire and wildfire smoke season. In fact, good reason to expect less wildfires and smoke than normal. One issue to take off your worry list.

 

 

But then again... wildfires are an important of the ecosystem and we can't prevent it from happening.

Good point, wildfires are natural. We need balance, can't have too many or too little.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Ryan Maue

 

@RyanMaue

 

 

 

 

NOAA is upgrading their ensemble system to FV3-GFS core -- a very welcome and long-awaited improvement. A parallel data feed is becoming available. I will collect and post graphics

@weathermodels_

@RyanMaue

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Replying to

@RyanMaue

There will be 30 perturbed ensembles, 1-control = 31 members out to 16-days. This is the first GEFS upgrade in 5-years & based upon the FV3 model core. Every 00z forecast will extend to 35-days for sub-seasonal applications

 

Can't wait!

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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We had a hailstorm here, most stones 1/2" but some around dime/penny size. Been totally downpouring, roads are streams of water.

 

I have video/pics to go through later. The storm is still kinda going but not as intense. So far no super close lightning strikes. Seems like maybe within a mile give or take.

 

At my place I'd call this an "almost" severe. But I think places like Altamont or just to my south may have gotten a legitimate severe.

  • Like 5

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Last 85 degree day of 2020?

 

I bet beginning of September does a few more there.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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