Jump to content

September 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Can you spot the CF??? The Euro is advertising a very strong Autumnal CF to sweep across the board next Sunday....that's about as dramatic of a temp contrast as you get in the Autumn! 90's followed by 60's just a few miles away....pretty wild stuff right there...some chilly nights are in the forecast for Labor Day! The smell of bon fires will be prevalent for those who will be enjoying the outdoors.

 

 

There is overwhelming model support for a major shot of "Autumnal Chill" lead by pretty much all the modeling as we head into the first full week of Sept.

That's impressive. Can't wait although I'm not liking the 80s and 90s out ahead of it. Really wanna be done with that.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ummm.... lock it down and get ready for fall is all I can say. Going to be insane cold for September.

Early Frosts coming this year instead of waiting till mid October or even late Oct/early Nov for some of us in recent years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Early Frosts coming this year instead of waiting till mid October or even late Oct/early Nov for some of us in recent years.

I've got leaves yellowing and falling off, too. After this 4 inch rain and 10 days of cool weather, autumn will be locked.

 

This is going to feel to some like the longest autumn in history. For some here especially, shortest summer in 19 years is a fact. Not even the years of 2000, 2009-2011. 2007, or any of them in my memory will have just ended so cold and sharp. Maybe going back to 1995 or some of the other 90s years. I know one year in early 1990s, I nearly froze to death trick or treating and maybe Sept-October 1987, but I'm lost on this one. I think if it sticks, this will be an unprecedented start to autumn.

 

Unanimous cold in all modeling is crazy.

 

September 2015 maybe before Nino influences took over, I remember a layer cold enough above ground to produce sleet at 42 degrees, but this is looking whacky and the models are always too warm at 12 day leads.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last flakes here was also the biggest snow of the season in mid April! That was still when I lived near Capitol Beach in west Lincoln. Being near Alvo in north Lincoln now, its a lot more open. Even if there's no true blizzard this winter, it will make blowing snow episodes a lot more interesting. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ummm.... lock it down and get ready for fall is all I can say. Going to be insane cold for September.

Yes lets have the chill in September, then by December we can maybe go back above normal when colder than average sucks in Iowa. That would suit me just fine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes lets have the chill in September, then by December we can maybe go back above normal when colder than a average sucks in Iowa. That would suit me just fine.

I would rather bake my a** off in September if it meant a cold and snowy December

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would rather bake my a** off in September if it meant a cold and snowy December

Thing is I’ld rather skip winter altogether and just have extended fall or springlike wx. Actually OKwx2k4’s type of winter climate would suit me just fine, but maybe not his summers. Eastern Ok. normally really doesn’t have much of what Iowans would consider as winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While not necessarily a textbook "Blue Norther", it certainly is showing some characteristics of this type of event and will definitely provide the temp drop across the Great Plains/MW.  00z EPS driving a significant push of "Autumnal Air" straight down out of Canada south into Texas post Labor Day.

 

If you look at the big picture, this pattern resembles very closely to how the LRC developed last October driving CF's deep into the South in the Autumn but then disappeared in the Winter.  Gotta keep that in mind going forward into the cold season.

 

Meanwhile, the model did come in wetter later next week as this aforementioned trough pushes through the Sub and likely sparking some much needed rainfall for those who have been dry.

14-km EPS Global United States 2-m Temperature Anom.gif

2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The biggest takeaway off the CFSv2 in the forecast trends are the following:

 

1) Much colder waters in the central/eastern PAC

2) Wetter/Cooler for the central/eastern Sub

3) Blocking over the Arctic

The arctic blast next week really commands that map, cuz after that the sub looks to be near normal for the rest of the month. EPS is trending cooler, though. Looking forward to today's weeklies.

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models are showing tomorrow’s light to moderate rain event to mostly be southeast of Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. The GFS does clip this area with about 1/4” rain. But most other models keep it dry here. Either way that’s not going to do much to help the developing drought

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yikes, the Euro also ushers down some big time chill mid/late next week!  The 12z EPS agrees that potentially record setting cold may be on the table across the Plains.

 

@ Fargo, definitely seeing some #Hoodie  #Jacket weather in your back yard!

2.png

3.png

4.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Indeed, the first 60s for highs looking likely next week, starting at or a day after the LDW and throughout the remainder of the week. Nippy 40s for lows, so, yes, there will be a drastic change in the air temp. Met Autumn will make its presence.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We took a road trip up to Ludington and had a lunch at the park at the beach. It was cloudy and a cool 72 there at the beach. But all in all a good road trip for the end of met summer. At this time it is partly cloudy and 73 here at my house. Also the updated CPC long range guess is now calling for below average temperatures for September

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In looking back at August in West Michigan.

For the month of August Grand Rapids had a mean of 72.0 that is a departure of +1.2. The high for the month was 91 on the 24th and 26th the low was 52 on the 19th there was 2.60” of rain fall below the average of 3.59”. At Muskegon the mean was 72.2 that is a departure of +2.3 the high was 91 on the 14th and the low was 49 on the 5th there was 2.22” of rain fall the average there for August is 3.39” At Holland the mean was 71.3 that is a departure of +0.3 the high for the month was 90 on the 14th and the low was 48 on the 19th Holland recorded 2.16” of rain fall with 3.57” being average. At Kalamazoo the mean was 72.5 that is a departure of +1.3 the high for the month was 95 on the 27th and the low for the month was 50 on the 19th they reported 3.08” of rain fall there average rain fall for August is 3.87” and at Lansing the mean was 71.6 that is a departure of +1.8. the high was 92 on the 24th and 27th and the low was 49 on the 19th they recorded 3.45” of rain fall and the is above the average of 3.37 there.  So it was warmer and dryer across west Michigan with only Lansing recorded above average rain fall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Attm, its 71F under sunny skies. Some stormy weather is possible today as a frontal boundary stalls.

 

Btw: August was sweet. Received 5.99" of rainfall. That is 206% above the norm. I bet the "Drought Monitor will have different results soon for my area :D

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another near miss here. Euro was too far north. The NAM did pretty well with coverage on this event. Obviously we’re in desperate need of rain

 

Short term models seem to be inching further north.  Radar trend is encouraging as well.  I'll take anything at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I am fain to find out that my area has now been removed from the "Abnormally Dry" cat and is near average in rainfall, but above for the month of August. Thanks to the wet weather last week, which helped boost up those numbers. Lets see how September goes in terms of rainfall.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FGF on next weekend's frontal passage

 

 

 

There will be a chance for shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
ahead of the wave traversing the region on late Saturday/early
Sunday, however; exact timing and confidence in this precipitation
event is still quite variable and will continue to be monitored.
Another cold front associated with this second forward propagating
wave will again introduce some gusty winds and notably cooler
temperatures to the area. Moving further into weekend, high
temperatures for Sunday should be able to stay in the mid 60s. With
the introduction of more northerly surface flow and CAA into the
area, ensemble spread is in agreement on overnight lows on Monday
and Tuesday morning reaching the mid to low 40s with some areas
flirting with low temperatures in the upper 30s. Attendant high
temperatures look to also rebound only into the mid to upper 50s
to start the work week.

 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 0

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    3. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...