james1976 Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Can you spot the CF??? The Euro is advertising a very strong Autumnal CF to sweep across the board next Sunday....that's about as dramatic of a temp contrast as you get in the Autumn! 90's followed by 60's just a few miles away....pretty wild stuff right there...some chilly nights are in the forecast for Labor Day! The smell of bon fires will be prevalent for those who will be enjoying the outdoors. There is overwhelming model support for a major shot of "Autumnal Chill" lead by pretty much all the modeling as we head into the first full week of Sept.That's impressive. Can't wait although I'm not liking the 80s and 90s out ahead of it. Really wanna be done with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Ummm.... lock it down and get ready for fall is all I can say. Going to be insane cold for September.Early Frosts coming this year instead of waiting till mid October or even late Oct/early Nov for some of us in recent years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Early Frosts coming this year instead of waiting till mid October or even late Oct/early Nov for some of us in recent years.I've got leaves yellowing and falling off, too. After this 4 inch rain and 10 days of cool weather, autumn will be locked. This is going to feel to some like the longest autumn in history. For some here especially, shortest summer in 19 years is a fact. Not even the years of 2000, 2009-2011. 2007, or any of them in my memory will have just ended so cold and sharp. Maybe going back to 1995 or some of the other 90s years. I know one year in early 1990s, I nearly froze to death trick or treating and maybe Sept-October 1987, but I'm lost on this one. I think if it sticks, this will be an unprecedented start to autumn. Unanimous cold in all modeling is crazy. September 2015 maybe before Nino influences took over, I remember a layer cold enough above ground to produce sleet at 42 degrees, but this is looking whacky and the models are always too warm at 12 day leads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Strange to think I saw my last flakes in May. Seems so long ago. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Last flakes here was also the biggest snow of the season in mid April! That was still when I lived near Capitol Beach in west Lincoln. Being near Alvo in north Lincoln now, its a lot more open. Even if there's no true blizzard this winter, it will make blowing snow episodes a lot more interesting. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Ummm.... lock it down and get ready for fall is all I can say. Going to be insane cold for September.Yes lets have the chill in September, then by December we can maybe go back above normal when colder than average sucks in Iowa. That would suit me just fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Yes lets have the chill in September, then by December we can maybe go back above normal when colder than a average sucks in Iowa. That would suit me just fine.I would rather bake my a** off in September if it meant a cold and snowy December Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 I would rather bake my a** off in September if it meant a cold and snowy DecemberThing is I’ld rather skip winter altogether and just have extended fall or springlike wx. Actually OKwx2k4’s type of winter climate would suit me just fine, but maybe not his summers. Eastern Ok. normally really doesn’t have much of what Iowans would consider as winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Hello Autumn! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 While not necessarily a textbook "Blue Norther", it certainly is showing some characteristics of this type of event and will definitely provide the temp drop across the Great Plains/MW. 00z EPS driving a significant push of "Autumnal Air" straight down out of Canada south into Texas post Labor Day. If you look at the big picture, this pattern resembles very closely to how the LRC developed last October driving CF's deep into the South in the Autumn but then disappeared in the Winter. Gotta keep that in mind going forward into the cold season. Meanwhile, the model did come in wetter later next week as this aforementioned trough pushes through the Sub and likely sparking some much needed rainfall for those who have been dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 The biggest takeaway off the CFSv2 in the forecast trends are the following: 1) Much colder waters in the central/eastern PAC2) Wetter/Cooler for the central/eastern Sub3) Blocking over the Arctic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 The biggest takeaway off the CFSv2 in the forecast trends are the following: 1) Much colder waters in the central/eastern PAC2) Wetter/Cooler for the central/eastern Sub3) Blocking over the ArcticThe arctic blast next week really commands that map, cuz after that the sub looks to be near normal for the rest of the month. EPS is trending cooler, though. Looking forward to today's weeklies. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Models are showing tomorrow’s light to moderate rain event to mostly be southeast of Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. The GFS does clip this area with about 1/4” rain. But most other models keep it dry here. Either way that’s not going to do much to help the developing drought 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 12z Euro brings more precip up through the MW in recent runs....12z UKIE is similar in placement... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Yikes, the Euro also ushers down some big time chill mid/late next week! The 12z EPS agrees that potentially record setting cold may be on the table across the Plains. @ Fargo, definitely seeing some #Hoodie #Jacket weather in your back yard! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 I would rather bake my a** off in September if it meant a cold and snowy DecemberX10,0000I'd take 100° and sweating 5lbs every day of September and brown leaves the rest of my life to quit having warm winters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 65 for the forecast high next Tuesday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 65 for the forecast high next Tuesday!57 here. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Indeed, the first 60s for highs looking likely next week, starting at or a day after the LDW and throughout the remainder of the week. Nippy 40s for lows, so, yes, there will be a drastic change in the air temp. Met Autumn will make its presence. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 48 for a forecast low tonight. Dews in the 30s and 40s in the upper midwest heading this way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 12z Euro brings more precip up through the MW in recent runs....12z UKIE is similar in placement...That would be great for me and hopefully verifies, but most of the CAMs show rainfall a little further south attm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 48 for a forecast low tonight. Dews in the 30s and 40s in the upper midwest heading this way.I’m jelly! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 We took a road trip up to Ludington and had a lunch at the park at the beach. It was cloudy and a cool 72 there at the beach. But all in all a good road trip for the end of met summer. At this time it is partly cloudy and 73 here at my house. Also the updated CPC long range guess is now calling for below average temperatures for September 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Welcome to met Autumn!! And what a way to kick.it off. Currently at 48° with mid and high clouds rolling in. Might squeak out a shower today. We'll see 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 It looks like soon fall will be in the air. I recorded 0.05" of rain fall overnight so just enough to dampen the ground. At this time it is mostly cloudy and 66 here at my house the latest reading from the airport was 67 no rain was reported at GRR overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Des Moines NWS has mid to upper 60s for Monday and says "even colder Tuesday" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 In looking back at August in West Michigan.For the month of August Grand Rapids had a mean of 72.0 that is a departure of +1.2. The high for the month was 91 on the 24th and 26th the low was 52 on the 19th there was 2.60” of rain fall below the average of 3.59”. At Muskegon the mean was 72.2 that is a departure of +2.3 the high was 91 on the 14th and the low was 49 on the 5th there was 2.22” of rain fall the average there for August is 3.39” At Holland the mean was 71.3 that is a departure of +0.3 the high for the month was 90 on the 14th and the low was 48 on the 19th Holland recorded 2.16” of rain fall with 3.57” being average. At Kalamazoo the mean was 72.5 that is a departure of +1.3 the high for the month was 95 on the 27th and the low for the month was 50 on the 19th they reported 3.08” of rain fall there average rain fall for August is 3.87” and at Lansing the mean was 71.6 that is a departure of +1.8. the high was 92 on the 24th and 27th and the low was 49 on the 19th they recorded 3.45” of rain fall and the is above the average of 3.37 there. So it was warmer and dryer across west Michigan with only Lansing recorded above average rain fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Sparky - You getting some rain this morning? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Sparky - You getting some rain this morning?Sadly not yet. I can see it passing a few miles south. Maybe some later? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Attm, its 71F under sunny skies. Some stormy weather is possible today as a frontal boundary stalls. Btw: August was sweet. Received 5.99" of rainfall. That is 206% above the norm. I bet the "Drought Monitor will have different results soon for my area 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Sadly not yet. I can see it passing a few miles south. Maybe some later?Actually I'm not expecting much and so far it's just south as most models had shown. Nice big system in Oklahoma etc! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Another near miss here. Euro was too far north. The NAM did pretty well with coverage on this event. Obviously we’re in desperate need of rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Another near miss here. Euro was too far north. The NAM did pretty well with coverage on this event. Obviously we’re in desperate need of rain Short term models seem to be inching further north. Radar trend is encouraging as well. I'll take anything at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 I might struggle to reach the mid-50s here next Tuesday. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 I might struggle to reach the mid-50s here next Tuesday.That's awesome. Looking like mid 60s down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Well, I am fain to find out that my area has now been removed from the "Abnormally Dry" cat and is near average in rainfall, but above for the month of August. Thanks to the wet weather last week, which helped boost up those numbers. Lets see how September goes in terms of rainfall. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 I've been under a mid-level stratus deck all day. Even with a steady South wind, the temperature has been very slow to rise. Looks like the deck will clear but I still doubt we hit our upper 70s forecast. 61*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 FGF on next weekend's frontal passage There will be a chance for shower and isolated thunderstorm activityahead of the wave traversing the region on late Saturday/earlySunday, however; exact timing and confidence in this precipitationevent is still quite variable and will continue to be monitored.Another cold front associated with this second forward propagatingwave will again introduce some gusty winds and notably coolertemperatures to the area. Moving further into weekend, hightemperatures for Sunday should be able to stay in the mid 60s. Withthe introduction of more northerly surface flow and CAA into thearea, ensemble spread is in agreement on overnight lows on Mondayand Tuesday morning reaching the mid to low 40s with some areasflirting with low temperatures in the upper 30s. Attendant hightemperatures look to also rebound only into the mid to upper 50sto start the work week. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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