james1976 Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 GFS with the drought buster.  3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 I am coaching 7th and 8th grade football games on Tuesday as our Middle School teams play at Kearney Catholic. Looks cold (for the time of year) for 5 and 6:30 PM games. I better have the sweat pants, hoodie, and jacket. Gloves and stocking cap? We'll see.  2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Chamber of Commerce weather here at noon in Central Nebraska. 68 degrees - wind gusting over 20 MPH out of the north with a dew of 43. Perfect conditions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 I just got back from a nice walk. It is windy but very warm out here at this time. I have a reading of 86 with that wind. There is a deck of clouds to the north but the sun is still out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 72 here with a nice breeze from the north. Gonna be a cool one tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 UK agrees with the GFS More than the amounts, it's great to see the potential for a widespread soaker across the region. 6 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Interesting write up from GRR:Â ur next upstream Pacific system will force the system that ismoving into today out of the area and bring shortwave ridginglater Saturday into Sunday. That is behind that warm front relatedshortwave that comes through early to midday Saturday. This bringsin warmer air for Saturday and even more so Sunday.-- Could get hot early to middle of next week --So, here is were the bigger forecast glitch is. We now have two,count them, two western Pacific typhoons. The first is Maysak,that not to far behind that is Haishen. Both of these stormsrecurved and head north up the coast of eastern China, Korea andRussia. That has a rossby wave impact on the down stream systems.It causes amplification of those systems. It is for that reasonthe ECMWF slowed down our cooling. The GFS is catching on somewith the latest model run.The more amplified pattern over the Pacific results in a moreamplified pattern over North America. That means the system thatwas suppose to dig into the Great Lakes now digs into the westernMountains instead. That in turn allows the Azores high to expandwestward, which in turn keeps us warm until that upper troughslowly makes it far enough east to reach the Great Lakes. Rememberboth typhoons have to finish recurving for it to get cold here.That may delay the cold weather until the following weekend.Meanwhile, with the upper high building back toward the GreatLakes we may have highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday intoThursday. By the way it is not unusual to us get hot weather thefirst week or so of September. In fact the average hightemperature for the first week of September in GRR from 2011 to2019 is 80 degrees. Which is about 3 degrees above normal. Priorto that, from 2007 to 2010, it was cool the fist week ofSeptember with our mean high only being 75 degrees. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Since the POTENTIAL for Frosts are showing up for parts of the Sub next week, here's a map showing the median dates for the first 32F Freeze and Frost.  1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Splendid day outside w a dry CF coming today. Maybe a scattered shower here and there, but nothing extreme. Windy conditions attm w gusts as high as 25mph. Some cumulus clouds mixing along w that deep, blue skies. Dew is not a factor today. What is a factor is the warmth. Currently a toasty 87F. Somebody could hit 90F. Btw: average high has dipped into the 70s now. Also, next potential (which is likely) named storm will be "Paulette." I think probability chances stand high, as peak season has not even arrived. I believed it peaks during Sept 10th timeframe. In conclusion, there is also a possibility that we might run outta names and head straight into the "Greek" Alphabet. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 12z Euro coming in colder for the Plains/MW for Wed & Thu morning lows....30's on the table for a lot of the central members....daytime highs may struggle to reach the 50 degree mark for parts of NE on Tue/Wed, however, the official high will be higher bc the midnight temp will be higher.  Edit: The snow amounts in CO are staying consistent! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 The Euro is still different, keeping the main energy cut off well west of our region. The rain amounts end up a little different, but the same general look is there. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 12z Euro coming in colder for the Plains/MW for Wed & Thu morning lows....30's on the table for a lot of the central members....daytime highs may struggle to reach the 50 degree mark for parts of NE on Tue/Wed, however, the official high will be higher bc the midnight temp will be higher.  Edit: The snow amounts in CO are staying consistent! I want to drive to Colorado to witness this early fall storm! Wow, that'd be cool.  2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 I want to drive to Colorado to witness this early fall storm! Wow, that'd be cool.  You and me Both! Instead of driving, I will be FLYING over this area on Wednesday morning heading back to Chicago. Might be a bit of a bumpy ride over the mountains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Euro is a little disappointing. The weekend system shifted further north and isn't as robust. I'd really like to cash in this weekend and then get the cooler temps with a couple days of rain behind it to really soak in. My new sod has taken a beating this summer and is really struggling to grow at all. I fertilized a few weeks ago, but it hasn't rained and it's too expensive to continuously water the yard. So I need mother nature to do her part here.   The Euro is still different, keeping the main energy cut off well west of our region. The rain amounts end up a little different, but the same general look is there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 I'd love to witness that CO storm. I drove through there last summer. Denver might get pounded! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Drought conditions mean business around here. Hope the precipitation maps are correct. Sometimes it is hard to break a drought. https://twitter.com/NWSHastings/status/1301602806227378176?s=20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Drought conditions mean business around here. Hope the precipitation maps are correct. Sometimes it is hard to break a drought. https://twitter.com/NWSHastings/status/1301602806227378176?s=20Not the fun "bullseye" you want to be in... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 It's interesting to see the Euro Weeklies flip much colder for the end of the month and siding with the BSR. Check out the complete opposite 500mb pattern to close out month from last Monday's run. This makes more sense until I see changes in the N PAC. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 It's interesting to see the Euro Weeklies flip much colder for the end of the month and siding with the BSR. Check out the complete opposite 500mb pattern to close out month from last Monday's run. This makes more sense until I see changes in the N PAC.Wow, that was a curveball. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 12z GFS coming in a lot colder and wintry for the CO Rockies Front Range...starting to see some similarities with the Euro...   Would this constitutue as a Blue Norther??? Temps in the TX Panhandle near 100F and within 24-36 hours crashing down into the 40's!  I'd say yes. If not, see ya in November for the real one. Lol.  If snow grazes the OK panhandle, it would have to obliterate a record.  This is like 1911 though. The setup is out of the park for long length colder than average weather with legs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Now that the CF has rolled on through, some much cooler air filtering in. Temps dropping tanite in the low 50s and a few 40s as well. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Off the African coastline, there is a wave that could form eventually into a TS and when that happens, "Paulette" will be visiting somebody. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 I had a very busy evening so I'm finally enjoying some time out on the deck and grilling some chicken tenders and potatoes on the Weber. Very late supper! But that's ok. This weather makes it worth it. Down to 59 with clear and calm conditions. I love watching the seasonal transitions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Life on the Great Plains. Saturday 99, Sunday 102, Monday 85 and falling, Tuesday 40’s with rain, Tuesday night mid 30’s with wind and possibly a few wet flakes. Awesome. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Evening models are shifting the Saturday night storms up into MN/WI, and far ne IA. Even though we don't get much this weekend, the GFS still has widespread 2-4" across the entire region through next week. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 The latest drought monitor across the MW has expanded...but if the latest model trends stay put, looks like many of us will put a big dent into that over the next 10 days.  3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 00z Euro came in a touch colder throughout the Great Plains and into the MW/Upper MW for the middle of next week....Frosty mornings still looking quite possible! Check out the DP's being predicted by the Euro which will provide that CRISP Canadian Feel. Some of the models have the snowfall creeping into KS! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Coolest morning yet. I had 46. Expecting low 80s though today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 I'm starting to see some LR signals that the coldest air of the Autumn season is yet to come for our eastern members by the middle of the month. Using the BSR as guidance, among other LR tools, the pattern will re-amplify and send a shot of some Autumnal chill down through the GL's/MW during the week of the 14th. Remember this 1st Bearing Sea storm???? Interestingly, this is just the beginning of a parade of storms in this part of the world which should translate into a volatile and active eastern half of the nation mid and late month. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 In other news, the Beat goes on here in the desert SW as we begin another Heat Wave that should last through the Labor Day weekend. PHX should set another record high today of 113F (old record 112F), tie a record of 112F tomorrow and maybe set another record for Monday. We may also set a record for the HOTTEST Labor Day weekend ever. If that's not enough, we also keep tacking on the number of Excessive Heat Warnings issued for the valley and 110F+ days which will be around 55 days or so by the end of this HOT stretch of weather.   Any-who, I'm excited to be coming back home next week and enjoy some crisp cool autumn air...its going to take a few days to get used to those temps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Looks like Monday will only be in the 70's here instead of the 80's that had been forecasted. Monday night through Tuesday night give us the best chance of precipitation in a long time. With this drought, you just don't know how things will play out. I guess until the pattern changes, I would lean towards less rainfall than is being predicted. Highs for Tuesday keep being lowered, now mid 40's with a north wind and rain. It will be a raw day. Our temps may drop over 60 degrees from highs of 102 on Sunday to 40 by evening on Tuesday.  1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 A couple days ago it looked like the Saturday night storms would fire in nw Iowa. Now the NAM has them firing in central MN. The 3k NAM, however, dives a line down through eastern Iowa by Sunday morning, in decay mode, which would at least drop something here. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Maybe I'm arrogant but I think my wx office is lost. I'm not sure. This is a well-telegraphed cold wave and I think they're not buying it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 I could be looking at upper 40s with rain falling that will be a shock after being in the 90s on Monday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 12z Euro... and we don't even get anything this weekend. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Absolutely gorgeous outside. Temp at 72F and a dew of 45F. Excellent weather and not a cloud to be found. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Looks like the cooldown coming next week will be significant w highs in the (50s north of my area) and 60s elsewhere and lows in the 40s and a few upper 30s in the far NW burbs. This will be a true shocker to the system, after experiencing a hot, dry Summer. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 This would be amazing. If only this could happen during the winter and give us a multi day monster snow storm.   12z Euro... and we don't even get anything this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 DVNs AFD makes no sense whatsoever. Claims the Euro is showing "much lighter" rainfall. I guess widespread 4-6" is light.    The ECMWF and CMC global solutions also generate a fair amount ofrain but the rainfall amounts much lighter across the area and thereare periods of dry weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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