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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Excited for the (maybe) rain, more impressive is the cold. Record low max for Sept 8 in Lincoln is 64. OAX is forecasting 56. The GFS is colder and also earlier with the front, 51 at midnight and a wet 43-44 in the afternoon hours. It's going to go from feeling like July to November in 2 days. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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This is the part of the year where things get difficult to follow, but it appears to me that the MJO and tropics/mid-lat variance are pretty much driving the bus in this cold event.

 

Only other option is the feedback from the SST contrast in the PAC. Been many years since we've experienced anything but warm over warm over warm.

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PHX broke another record yesterday topping out at 114F (112F old record) and likely will come close to tying the 113F record today, the 111F record for tomorrow and finally, the 111F record for Monday....sounds like a broken record...bc it has been!!!

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The 1st significant autumn storm system of the season is poised to leave its mark across the majority of our Sub later next week.  Much needed widespread heavy rain is in the forecast for the MW/GL's region.  Spread the wealth???  From Snow in the Rockies, to severe wx and heavy rains and very cool/chilly temps...signs of autumn are finally here.  I noticed the Euro is kicking out the trough quicker and not holding back like it has been for days.  Wherever this cold core ULL tracks, I could see record low high temps across parts of NE/KS/IA next week.

 

00z EPS is trending wetter and more widespread with precip....

 

 

1.png

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The 1st significant autumn storm system of the season is poised to leave its mark across the majority of our Sub later next week. Much needed widespread heavy rain is in the forecast for the MW/GL's region. Spread the wealth??? From Snow in the Rockies, to severe wx and heavy rains and very cool/chilly temps...signs of autumn are finally here. I noticed the Euro is kicking out the trough quicker and not holding back like it has been for days. Wherever this cold core ULL tracks, I could see record low high temps across parts of NE/KS/IA next week.

 

00z EPS is trending wetter and more widespread with precip....

That looks like a mid-January precip map.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It definitely feels like Met Autumn outside. Temp at 59F under mostly cloudy skies and a cool breeze outta the NW.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Next week does not get as chilly as once thought here imby. It cools down, but not too extreme. We will see.

 

Key note: Lotta rain next week y'all for a lot of peeps on here. Mby is expected to receive a couple of " of water between Tues - Th timeframe.

 

In conclusion, LBW looks a little wet here. Some storms in between Sat-Mon.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per the strong system early week - Denver is forecasted to have a high of 100F on Sunday the 9/6 - which would be  the latest 100F recorded for Denver. Tuesday 9/8- the forecasted high is 37F- the earliest sub 40F high recorded. Same thing looks to be felt across the Plains except not as drastic.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I went on a walk pre-sunrise as daylight was emerging and the sun tucked behind the mountain side and the temp was 86F.  Since then, about 2:30 hours ago, the temps have shot up to 101F just after 9:00 am!  I'd say we will probably set another record today.

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I'm not optimistic about Cedar Rapids/Iowa City getting much tonight.  Most models keep the storms northeast.  Dubuque appears to be in a good spot.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Attm, its 71F under mostly cloudy skies. Dew is not a factor today. Liking the forecast for next week as the potential stands high for some significant rainfall in my area. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Definitely more warm out there. May actually have to fire up the AC one last time tonight as we'll struggle to get below 60 before the front passes. 77/49/78*F.

 

We're not even going to get close to 60 Monday, and Tuesday we'll struggle to even get out of the lower 50s. A brief scrape of 32 is not out of the question Tuesday night...

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The euro has widespread 6-9 inch rainfall amounts over the next week! I sure hope this happens, it's been way too dry around here, and this rainfall would be great.

 

That's an amazing map! Haven't seen a map from the Euro with 6" - 9"> of QPF around here in a long time.
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Skies are ominous outside, but no indication of severe weather per radar.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The 3k NAM shifted tonight's MCS activity quite a bit sw, easily hitting the Waterloo/CR/IC area.  Most models are still farther northeast, though.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Short but sweet.

 

Detailed Forecast
Tonight
Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 1am and 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. East southeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Windy, with a south wind 11 to 16 mph becoming northwest 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 19 to 29 mph decreasing to 9 to 19 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph.
Labor Day
Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. North wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. North wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 53. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Tuesday Night
Areas of frost after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 34. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest after midnight.
Wednesday
Areas of frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 60. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 39. South southwest wind around 8 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 68. South southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. South wind around 7 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 7 to 14 mph.
Friday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 48. South wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 74. South southwest wind 6 to 13 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.

 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The 3k NAM shifted tonight's MCS activity quite a bit sw, easily hitting the Waterloo/CR/IC area.  Most models are still farther northeast, though.

 

The latest HRRR just shifted sw as well, so maybe there is something to this.

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Dropping into the 40s tanite under a crystal clear evening. Setting up a bonfire soon as I am having some good friends over and planning on grilling some fresh fish and side salad w red wine.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The 00z 3k NAM is dropping tonight's line south through central and eastern Iowa.  The HRRR has inched back northeast a bit, keeping the storms just ne of CR/IC.

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_8.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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