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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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On this last day of Summer, what a splendid day mother nature has in store for nearly all of us on here.  My goodness, you can't ask for a better forecast than this...upper 70's and sunshine galore...wash, rinse, repeat for the remainder of this week until late in the weekend when a storm system I've been waiting to unfold will flip the pattern on a dime as we close out the last few days of the month and open up October.  It's amazing to me how nearly every year right around the beginning of October the pattern seems to "snap" into an entirely different one.  Needless to say, I think this coming week will probably be one of the Top 3 best stretches of calm, warm Autumn weather around these parts.  

Let's see what the models are showing for next weekend...

00z EPS not really to wet for the most part except for the Northwoods...it gets wetter into early next week, however, for the GL's region.

 

00z GFS...

 

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00z EPS advertising a couple of BN days to close the month....

 

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Hello all. Lots of great stuff Tom. Glad to see some real autumn weather to start, well, autumn.  Lol. Why is it so strange that it's actually going to really be a great season? The weather looks absolutely perfect going forward, by my standards. 

 

Anyway, good riddance, summer. Its a beautiful last day of it.

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80's all week here with a possible 91 Friday.  Looks to start the cool down Saturday and beyond.  Dry as a bone around here, which I guess is good for harvest.  Talked to a farmer at a wedding reception Saturday night.  He said May 1-Sept. 20 has been the driest stretch of weather at his farm south of town since at least 1988.  He has measured only a little over 9" in that almost 5 month period.  

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3rd straight morning in the 30s here. Just drove north to Lansing and back and the trees (some brilliant red) are noticeably turning, especially in the usual early places like low-lying marshes. Otherwise just a splendid recovery to 71F this pm and then mid-70s all week. Grass is lush and tall again too. Gotta get some more late golfing in tho too, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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30 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

80's all week here with a possible 91 Friday.  Looks to start the cool down Saturday and beyond.  Dry as a bone around here, which I guess is good for harvest.  Talked to a farmer at a wedding reception Saturday night.  He said May 1-Sept. 20 has been the driest stretch of weather at his farm south of town since at least 1988.  He has measured only a little over 9" in that almost 5 month period.  

It would be nice to get another rainer to break up the monotony. The grass and lawns actually greened back up quite a bit here from the cold rain event a couple weeks ago. I guess it's becoming more moot though since we're approaching dead (well dormant I guess) grass season. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

It would be nice to get another rainer to break up the monotony. The grass and lawns actually greened back up quite a bit here from the cold rain event a couple weeks ago. I guess it's becoming more moot though since we're approaching dead (well dormant I guess) grass season. 

Yea, grass actually looks better around here with the weather being closer to average and lawn sprinklers doing their job without the 90's-100's.  Our varsity football field had a fungus last week that made it look like it was drying up.  They sent a sample to UNL's Turf Management division and the appropriate spray has now been applied.  It looked pretty rough last Friday night at the varsity game, but appears to be improving some today and they hope it is green and lush for the homecoming game on Friday, Oct. 2nd.

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6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

80's all week here with a possible 91 Friday.  Looks to start the cool down Saturday and beyond.  Dry as a bone around here, which I guess is good for harvest.  Talked to a farmer at a wedding reception Saturday night.  He said May 1-Sept. 20 has been the driest stretch of weather at his farm south of town since at least 1988.  He has measured only a little over 9" in that almost 5 month period.  

That is a remarkable observation. I haven't studied 1988 much but I will now. Thank you for sharing. Interesting...

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8 hours ago, Jaycee said:

The lack of rain here is so depressing. Rain in the fall is always the best. Hope things change soon 😕

Your type of Fall weather is coming next week starting on Monday that will bring cold, windy, raw/wet type of autumn days around here and throughout the MW/GL's region.  Models starting to hone in on a vigorous Autumn storm system to traverse the northern Sub and usher in the seasons 1st legit Autumn storm around these parts.

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As we welcome the 1st day of astronomical Autumn today, the weather Gods will certainly be blessing us with amazing Indian Summer conditions.  The forecast today couldn't get any better.  Just about as perfect as one could ask for.  Get out and enjoy it bc things are going to change soon!

 

Boy, some abrupt changes are about to occur starting late this weekend into the early next week.  It definitely appears that we are heading towards some real autumn weather and a more active pattern for most of the Sub.  As it stands now, the GL's region looks to get most of the action to kick start this pattern change with a robust northern wave that slides down SE out of Canada in a La Nina-like fashion and could basically blow up into a major wound up early season system.  Big time  high lat blocking develops along with a Greenland Block that looks to lock in a long-term long-wave trough for the eastern CONUS into the foreseeable future.  When I say "lock", I'm pretty confident this is going to last well into the 1st half of Octobrrrrr.  The BSR is going to be a strong long lead forecasting method that surely looks to have a bonafide win in my book.  

 

00z EPS locking in the "chill" for Week 2....I'm issuing a "Great Lakes Water Spout" alert for next week...I'm afraid we will be seeing beach erosion season begin as well.  There is some interesting weather on the horizon and quite a different open to the month of October from what we've been used to.  A sneak peak into October and the 00z EPS is suggesting a signal that a storm system will develop over the central Plains and usher in moisture.  This may indeed be our 1st storm of the LRC 2020-21 cycle.  It's been on my calendar so let's see if this comes into fruition.

 

 

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With just 9 days left in September now is a good time to see where we stared for this month. At Grand Rapids the mean so far this month is 61.0 that is a departure of -3.7 the high for the month so far is 85 and the low so far is 36.  There has been 2.10” of rain. At Muskegon the mean is 62.2 that is a departure of -1.6 the high so far 81 and the low so far is 37 and they have had 1.37” of rain. At Holland the mean is 61.3 the high so far is 82 and the low is 34. They have recorded 2.17” of rain. At Lansing the mean is 60.6 the high so far 84 and the low 34. They have recorded 2.45” of rain. On the east side of the state Detroit has a current mean of 63.4 that is a departure of -2.8 the high so far is 85 and the low is 38. At Flint the mean there is 59.0 that is a departure of -3.9. The high so far is 83 and the low is a cool 30 they have recorded 3.03” of rain fall. At Saginaw the mean there so far is 60.6  that is a departure of -2.4. the high so far 85 and the low so far is 36. They have recorded 3.29” of rain fall. Up north at Alpena the mean there is 55.4 that is a departure -4.0 the high there so far is 81 and the low is a frosty 28. They have had just 1.45” of rain fall. At Houghton Lake the mean is 54.9  the high there so far is 80 and the low is 26. They have only had 1.08” of rain fall. At the Sault the mean there is 54.7 that is a departure of -4.1 the high there so far is just 72 and the low is 34. They have had 2.52” of rain. And at Marquette the mean there is 52.6 that is a departure of -5.0 the high there so far is 75 and the low so far is 32. They have reported 1.75” of rain. So, this has been a cool and is spots dry September. Many areas have seen their first frost and freeze. It should be noted that many areas have already seen the highest temperatures for the month and maybe the warmest until next year

 

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Welcoming Autumn today with another fall favorite. Cool steady rainfall. Its been so many years since I can even remember a September like this one in weather for me. It's been the kind of September that I could dream of. I know that sounds so silly. I really do, but I just wanted to be thankful. I'm blessed to be where I am when so many aren't at peace right now, have dealt with numerous weather and climatologically-related disasters to the sum of 4B, and many other things. My life is not really at peace, itself, sometimes right now if I'm honest. Kinda scary to look ahead or assume too far. I know a lot of us feel like that. I just want to be thankful for something I mostly gripe about and/or don't say anything at all about and take for granted. My weather has been awesome. I'm thankful to God and blessed enough I got to slow down for a second to reflect and enjoy it. 

I'm thankful it is fall,....ya'll. :)

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@ James

Wow does that sound delicious 😋

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's another comfortable morning with a current temp in the upper 50's (56F).  I could get used to this tranquil and warm weather pattern but we still need some more rain.  Speaking of which, the models are not trending kindly over here for a good soaker and primarily hitting N and E of here.  Full disclosure, this storm early next week totally feels like I'm tracking a hybrid clipper that would blast the GL's with a good synoptic snow along with a vicious LES set up on the back end.

The 00z Euro brings down some of the coldest air of the season with multiple days of lake effect rains next week and highs in the 40's for parts of the GL's.

 

 

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It's certainly looking pretty chilly next week as a deep trough digs and holds over the eastern US.  As far as rain goes, it sure would be nice if we could get something more consistent.  We went weeks with nothing from July into early August, then we got the derecho.  Then, we went weeks more with nothing and then a week of nothing but rain.  Now, we're right back to weeks with nothing again.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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65F attn under mostly sunny skies. I did spot some patchy color around here, so, its starting up.😀

 

Next week comes the cooldown w highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Beta is doing its dirty job down south. Los of flooding due to its slow progression.

 

OkWx missed out on Beta's hvy rains unfortunately, as all of this moisture is moving east.

 

Speaking of the tropics, "Gamma" is next, if we do get another named storm, which I am sure we will.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The average high for Iowa City on October 1st is 70, Euro is showing temps in the low to mid 50s.  That sucks.  I want to hang on to the warm weather as long as possible.  Even with this cold we aren't going to see snow, so I'd much rather keep highs in the 70s until about Thanksgiving when we have real shots of snow.  I don't mind a cool day here or there, but that trough means business on the Euro, so that's a multi day cool down coming up.  

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You can't get more boring weather than what we've had for the last few weeks.  Basically everyday is mid 80's or a little higher, breezy south wind, smoky skies, and a dew of about 50.  Very dry conditions continue with no end in sight according to local forecasts.  Hopefully cooler weather is coming, but we'll need quite a storm to put a dent in the drought.  

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Looks to be close to a record high on Friday near 93, before it cools down next week. Still no precip.

In fact this month, Omaha has only had 4 days of measurable precip and that was all with that stalled out system that brought our only rainfall this month. The next week looks dry so we should make it the entire month with only that system/rainfall. The 2nd severe weather season is about done here as well.

Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind 8 to 10 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 85. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 61. South wind 3 to 5 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 92. South wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. South southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Breezy.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 69. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 66.
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It's another comfortable, cool and calm morning here today with a temp hovering in the upper 50's (57F). Wash, rinse, repeat....I could get used to this but I'm afraid my windows will be closed by this time next week and my furnace will be activated for the 1st time this season.  

Speaking of next week, BIG changes brewing on the Euro/Ukie for early next week as both models are suggesting a "Pan Handle Hook" type of storm system to traverse the Southern/Eastern Sub Sun-Wed and bombing out near the GL's.  Woah, this is quite the change and fascinating to say the least.  What a way to finish off the month, ay???

 

00z EPS has turned significantly wetter down near OK/MO and up through the OHV due to this system it's starting to "see"....

 

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53 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I know this happens each year. But in my walks and drives around the area it looks like in the last week a lot of the trees have now started to change. That may be due to the sunny dry days we have had. At this time it is clear and 58 here at my house. 

Leaves are changing down my way, seems to be around 2 weeks early for Missouri

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On 9/23/2020 at 6:08 AM, Tom said:

It's another comfortable morning with a current temp in the upper 50's (56F).  I could get used to this tranquil and warm weather pattern but we still need some more rain.  Speaking of which, the models are not trending kindly over here for a good soaker and primarily hitting N and E of here.  Full disclosure, this storm early next week totally feels like I'm tracking a hybrid clipper that would blast the GL's with a good synoptic snow along with a vicious LES set up on the back end.

The 00z Euro brings down some of the coldest air of the season with multiple days of lake effect rains next week and highs in the 40's for parts of the GL's.

 

 

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For sure shows some classic LE signatures. Would be an impressive snow maker and reminds me of the late Jan 2019 hybrid storm. Per your latest update tho, this has changed to more of an OHV low? That"d be interesting. How "bombed out" are we talking here bud?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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51 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

For sure shows some classic LE signatures. Would be an impressive snow maker and reminds me of the late Jan 2019 hybrid storm. Per your latest update tho, this has changed to more of an OHV low? That"d be interesting. How "bombed out" are we talking here bud?

972mb just east of Lake Superior...let's see if trends continue today...its a complex set up whereby a southern piece forms along the front and phases with the northern stream energy diving S/SE out of NW Canad and into the GL's region...fascinating to say the least...

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