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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Found out last night that an old friend from college passed away yesterday from COVID. Only 40 years old and no other health issues. Unfortunately, he made the decision to go to the Sturgis bike rally

Just looked outside and every roof, car, etc is covered in a thick layer of frost.

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4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Ended up with 1.99" total for the week. A bit of a letdown for sure. It's amazing how when you're running nearly 12" below normal for the year, 2" of rain doesn't even make the ground that soft. Normally after that much rain I can walk out in my backyard and the ground feels "squishy".

Crazy. Is there a time or season when you don't have either a drought or flood conditions going out there? Seems like since I began following this forum (Feb '14) it has been only one or the other. Beginning with the blowing dust advisories common that winter. And tbh since I was not in here this past warm season I wasn't really aware there was such a precip shortfall in progress.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Finished with a 2 day precip total of 0.72". Didn't even expect over 0.5" so I'll call that a win. Keep the fire danger low!

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Really nice Fall day. Mid to upper 60s, cloudy and a light breeze. Took a nice walk around town, had a daytime bonfire and now got the charcoals warming up for some burgers and sweetcorn on the Weber. Hope everyone is having a great weekend!

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5 minutes ago, Niko said:

TS Sally could become a (CAT1) hurricane by the time it reaches landfall somewhere near LA or Panhandle of FL. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

Right now it's looking to be on the MS/LA border. However, I think if the track shifts, it is more likely to shift West. That would also allow for more strengthening as that would put it in the water for longer.

Too bad last week's front stalled, had that thing gone into the Gulf it could have closed it up for the season.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Right now it's looking to be on the MS/LA border. However, I think if the track shifts, it is more likely to shift West. That would also allow for more strengthening as that would put it in the water for longer.

Too bad last week's front stalled, had that thing gone into the Gulf it could have closed it up for the season.

Also, get this:  Bermuda is under a "Hurricane Warning." Looks like Paulette wants to visit them.

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14 hours ago, Sparky said:

This is what happened then, and the main band stayed to the east and I didn’t get nearly as much overnight as models were showing. The flash flood watch probably wasn’t necessary since the heaviest rainfall fell over areas that had less on previous days. But that was good to spread the wealth! 😀
 

My daily total yesterday was 1.32” with 0.55” additional rainfall today,since midnight. My weekly total (starting early Sunday) amounted to 5.21”, (still quite a bit less than many) and so far this month 5.77”. It wasn’t really a pleasant rainfall, but it all soaked in and I’m thrilled with these drought busting amounts! It really can rain if it wants to, no matter how dry! 

Isn't it nice to see actual totals come  close to what the models were showing?  I think many of us on here scored a BIG win in the precip dept and relief from the Heat this past week.  Personally, it has been enjoyable to be able to put on a light jacket or hoodie and not crank the A/C!  Although, the gloomy days wear on me and since I got here Wed afternoon, I haven't seen the sun, except for peaks of it late yesterday evening before sunset.  I can't wait to see that beautiful star later this morning.  That's one thing I do enjoy while living in AZ, is you won't be discouraged by the lack of sunshine.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Sparky said:

Here are some more smoke photos. Looks like it’s just to my southeast attm.

6BFA0FDD-1AC4-426A-B28E-BC3AEB144AF7.jpeg

316AE2FD-4A57-45E4-AC1D-913EDC5AD445.jpeg

29C94A6A-D0AF-4EFB-BA5E-1D0DC463C7D2.jpeg

I will say that yesterday evening (around 5:00pm) when I saw peaks of the sun, it was a hazy sun and I thought to myself "is that smoke from the fires"??  It certainly does look like the jet swooped up some smoke into the area for a period of time.

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9 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Noticed many trees are changing in the area. Much sooner than in the past few years. I’m sure the drought had something to do with this also. However, the record cold snap might also contribute to some of this color. Just really excited for the change of seasons. 

I was just looking at the Fall color maps up in MN/WI and there isn't much to report except for some minor color way up in N MN.  I think in about a week we will see some colors in your area and up north where they had Frost/Freeze's early this year.  Nice to see Autumn come early unlike years past.  Is that a sign December will treat us differently?  #FliptheScript2020

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In other news, Football Sunday is BACK!!!!  Finally, we have NFL football to watch and brings some normalicy back to the Autumn season.  Some fantastic weather is expected later today with increasing sunshine and temps in the upper 70's.  A perfect week of weather is setting up this week and will allow me to do a lot of yard work.  

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Here at my house I recorded 0.08" of rain yesterday. As noted before the way CoCoRaHS likes to keep their reports (from 7 AM to 7 AM) is different from the way the NWS keeps their records of 12 AM to 12 AM.    At this time it is clear here with a temperature of 61.

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Just 0.3" here. Those multi-inch totals out in the Plains are almost a guaranteed pain in the a$$ basement flooding for me so it's just as well we keep things as-is. Very green here again and the lower sun angle should keep it that way. September is just about the best month for grass. I try to seed in early September if I have any bare spots.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Much cooler air arrives for early next week and then, much chillier air arriving by weeks end. There is a potential for mby to remain in the 50s for highs on Friday of next week. Lows could dip easily into the 30s.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Currently, its still humid outside, along w partly sunny skies. Temp is @ 72F.

Strange how 72F and sunny now feels like 🔥. Just about 10 days ago we were dying for such a day. Nice to be mostly done with a/c tho

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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33 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

12Z GFS is warm and dry here. Drops a total of .1" of rain in the next 16 days.

Yikes, that will almost certainly negate or lessen the affects of the recent rainfall's impact on the drought. We need to keep cutting into the huge moisture deficits around here, but that doesn't look to be happening anytime soon. 

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What a gorgeous day yesterday as we topped out at 77F with sunshine all day long.  Things looked like they dried out a bit and that will allow me to finally do some yard work.  A stunning week of weather and filled with bountiful sunshine.  These are the Sept days I was looking forward to.  A rather strong CF sweeps through Thu and Fri could be a tad nippy with highs in the low 60's.  First 40's for overnight lows late week??  Excellent bon fire wx.

 

00z Euro a wee bit chilly for the GL's Sat morning...

 

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The departure from average so far this September at Grand Rapids is at -2.6. Some other Michigan sites with cooler that average means so far are Flint -2.1. Alpena -3.1 The Sault -4.0 and at Marquette they are at a whopping -6.3 so far this month.

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20 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Strange how 72F and sunny now feels like 🔥. Just about 10 days ago we were dying for such a day. Nice to be mostly done with a/c tho

Funny how that works right.....and a month from now, 60F will seem very mild to us as well.

 

Idk bud, but, October is sometimes a month that can have us all crank up the AC, as heatwaves have occurred in the past. So, we will see on that. Hopefully, like you said, we are mostly done w/ the AC.✌️

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Attm, a very pleasant 54F under mostly sunny skies. A brief warm-up coming by mid-week, followed by a drastic chill. Highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Leaves will definitely change color w that type of airmass. I would not be surprised if frost advisories are out for my neck of the woods. We will see on that.

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

51° here at this time with a kind of milky sky that is either smoke or high fog. My guess it that it is smoke

This is about as bad, or maybe even a bit worse, the smoke was back in AZ when I experienced the Hazy skies.  I went for a walk earlier this morning and it is quite the scene to see the Sun obscured by the smoke.  I was hoping for a sunnier morning/day but it doesn't look like it will be. 

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WOAHHH! I just stepped outside to have my Greek Coffee and a side brunch on my patio and suddenly I see a smokey sky. Those western wildfires have made it here to MI from what I am seeing. Skies are not as blue, as they would have been, had there been no smoke in the sky. Oh well...

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Yesterday afternoon I noticed what looked like high cirrus clouds in  the distant northwestern horizon and guessed it might be smoke.
Till evening it was overhead, then today the sky was so hazy that the smoke kind of blocked the sunshine all day. 

 

 


 

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5 hours ago, Sparky said:

Yesterday afternoon I noticed what looked like high cirrus clouds in  the distant northwestern horizon and guessed it might be smoke.
Till evening it was overhead, then today the sky was so hazy that the smoke kind of blocked the sunshine all day. 

 


ł

We hit a high of 77F yesterday and it really didn't feel that warm in the sun, or the lack thereof, due to the milky/hazy skies.  It's wild how smokey it is out here and it looks like it will continue for the next couple days.

 

Woke up this morning to the smell of burning wood throughout the house.  I think my neighbor had a fire last night and I sure love that smell!  Nice, cool and calm morning here today...61F/54F...I see some upper 40's are in the grid later this week/weekend.  That's gonna feel a bit chilly for my thin blood.  Slowly but surely I'm getting used to this pleasant weather.  I accomplished a lot of yard work yesterday and while I was doing so, for the first time this season, the D**n mosquito's were out!  Wouldn't ya know it, that at the tail end of the season, I had to deal with a few of them.  

 

 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

We hit a high of 77F yesterday and it really didn't feel that warm in the sun, or the lack thereof, due to the milky/hazy skies.  It's wild how smokey it is out here and it looks like it will continue for the next couple days.

 

Woke up this morning to the smell of burning wood throughout the house.  I think my neighbor had a fire last night and I sure love that smell!  Nice, cool and calm morning here today...61F/54F...I see some upper 40's are in the grid later this week/weekend.  That's gonna feel a bit chilly for my thin blood.  Slowly but surely I'm getting used to this pleasant weather.  I accomplished a lot of yard work yesterday and while I was doing so, for the first time this season, the D**n mosquito's were out!  Wouldn't ya know it, that at the tail end of the season, I had to deal with a few of them.  

 

 

The way the sky looked yesterday it was almost like living on a different planet. At this time here in Grand Rapids it is now as hazy as yesterday but there is still a milky look to the sky.

 

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12 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The way the sky looked yesterday it was almost like living on a different planet. At this time here in Grand Rapids it is now as hazy as yesterday but there is still a milky look to the sky.

 

Today is noticeably more sunnier than yesterday.  I can see blue color up in the sky which was non existent yesterday.  

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The haze here is so thick that our high temp forecast has dropped from 81 to 72. It basically looks cloudy out there, and the sun in the sky is so faint that I can directly stare at it. 59.4*F and barely rising.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Eventually the smoke got so thick here that the sun was completely blocked.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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After a couple of cool-ish days here, the rest of the month will be boring here as well. By the time things may get interesting again, it'll be October.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Concern for air quality is high today.  Our athletic director has told all coaches of outdoor sports to decide if practices should occur with problems for anyone with breathing issues.  Right now all is good.  Fairly cool morning and I didn't smell any smoke yet.  I'll report tonight how it went.

smoke.pdf

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

After a couple of cool-ish days here, the rest of the month will be boring here as well. By the time things may get interesting again, it'll be October.

I am all for this boring fall weather after the last 3 years of wet fall weather around my area, and cold for some long stretches.  I swear October 2018 had over 50% of the days with snow on the ground.

How is Fargo weather treating you so far, what you expected?  Sick of the wind yet?  If it does get wet and muddy and you take a drive in the country watch out for mud on the road from the beet trucks and just watch out for them in general.  Sugar beet harvest starts Oct 1.

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Smokey skies continue to show, along w a hazy sun. Temps are in the 50s. Highs today in the 80s, b4 temps take a nosedive.

 

Frost is a possibility here in mby both Fri n Sat as temps drop into the mid to upper 30s.

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Tropics are as active as can be. I believe there are 5 name storms. If Sally has been downgraded to  TD, then, make that 4 name storms. Let me know! Also, last time there were 5 name storms, was back in 1971. Dang!

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1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

I am all for this boring fall weather after the last 3 years of wet fall weather around my area, and cold for some long stretches.  I swear October 2018 had over 50% of the days with snow on the ground.

How is Fargo weather treating you so far, what you expected?  Sick of the wind yet?  If it does get wet and muddy and you take a drive in the country watch out for mud on the road from the beet trucks and just watch out for them in general.  Sugar beet harvest starts Oct 1.

I moved here for the weather! I'm never sick of the wind. I do drive a lot in the country, so thanks for the warning about the trucks.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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This is a map of where freezes have occurred this season so far. Ignore the purple dots down south, no way in hell those are real.

freeze_32_stn_Central.png

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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