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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Sunny skies and very cool conditions continue to prevail as temps still stuck in the 50s and most likely staying there.

Another "Frost Advisory" for tanite as temps bottom out into the 30s once again. Although, if might not be as cold as 32F, temps will certainly drop to at least the mid to upper 30s.

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Found out last night that an old friend from college passed away yesterday from COVID. Only 40 years old and no other health issues. Unfortunately, he made the decision to go to the Sturgis bike rally

Just looked outside and every roof, car, etc is covered in a thick layer of frost.

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Went out for some photography today, and the colors were near peak The leaves changed FAST. Last week they were still mostly green. 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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An almost perfect day here weather-wise (outside of some gusty winds), a great day to spend some time outside... the smoke from the western wildfires certainly has obscured the blue skies and the visibility has even dropped just a bit. Was out working in the yard this afternoon and felt very little warmth from the afternoon sun.
 

My wife unfortunately tested positive for COVID-19 a couple days ago, so going to be outside a lot more with my two boys to keep our distance as much as we can... it’s not a great situation but she’s been feeling okay, no major issues with the virus so far outside of a few mild symptoms.

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13 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

An almost perfect day here weather-wise (outside of some gusty winds), a great day to spend some time outside... the smoke from the western wildfires certainly has obscured the blue skies and the visibility has even dropped just a bit. Was out working in the yard this afternoon and felt very little warmth from the afternoon sun.
 

My wife unfortunately tested positive for COVID-19 a couple days ago, so going to be outside a lot more with my two boys to keep our distance as much as we can... it’s not a great situation but she’s been feeling okay, no major issues with the virus so far outside of a few mild symptoms.

Glad to hear her symptoms are mild so far!

 

We’re having beautiful but boring weather here as well. The grass is mostly nice and green, but there still are some small cracks in parts of the lawn, etc.  I’m still in the abnormally dry area on the drought map. Just a few miles north and southeast had better rains during the summer, so they’re in better shape. Could use another 2” of rain now. 
 

Today I was in nw. C.R. with a group of guys helping with storm cleanup. We were cutting down some badly damaged trees in someone’s backyard and cutting them all up. Some were large trees so we didn’t get it finished. There’s no decent access to the yard so I think they plan to just let the piles of wood rot. People from my area are going up about every week. Anyway, I got a good workout and I’m tired and kinda sore.

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10 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

An almost perfect day here weather-wise (outside of some gusty winds), a great day to spend some time outside... the smoke from the western wildfires certainly has obscured the blue skies and the visibility has even dropped just a bit. Was out working in the yard this afternoon and felt very little warmth from the afternoon sun.
 

My wife unfortunately tested positive for COVID-19 a couple days ago, so going to be outside a lot more with my two boys to keep our distance as much as we can... it’s not a great situation but she’s been feeling okay, no major issues with the virus so far outside of a few mild symptoms.

Stay safe and healthy my friend!  Like you, we are having delightful autumn-like wx around here.  While not active, I'm content having nothing but sunshine and temps in the 70's for the entire week coming up.  As Jaster mentioned, 1st round of Indian Summer wx heading for our region.  There were some isolated locals in the coldest spots that had some frost yesterday morning but more so into MI/IN.

 

 

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Models are beginning to pick up on a storm system next weekend and a wetter/cooler pattern towards the tail end of the month.  00z EPS, especially, trending towards a highly amplified pattern across North America that may very well deliver the coolest air of the season as we close out Sept and open up Oct.  Unfortunately, it doesn't look to deliver a lot of precip for the central Plains and targeting more of the eastern Sub.  We'll see how this develops over the coming week.

 

Check out this animation below which shows the rolling 5-day 500mb ensemble mean for week 2.  A number of big clues stand out to me as we move into the heart of Autumn.  Firstly, the dominant SW Ridge that shows no signs of breaking down.  Second, the northern stream energy that dives down SE out of western Canada (typical La Nina signature) into the Upper MW/MW/GL's region.  Third, the blossoming Scandinavian Ridge and Greenland Block which leads to an expansive eastern CONUS trough.  This, my friends, is a pattern to which we have not seen since for a few years to open up October.  It appears to me that we have bucked the trend of recent Septembers and this cold season may in fact do just that for the eastern CONUS.  The N PAC pattern that has developed this month and dictated a lot of what is happening now surely looks to continue. 

 

The BSR would suggest so...back on Sept 14th there was a very strong Bearing Sea storm system that spun up and slowly tracked E/NE in the Bearing Sea.  This would correlate to a big storm traversing across the northern Sub with a trailing CF sometime during the opening days of October.  A glimpse at what exhibit A of the LRC could look like??

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_1.png

 

 

Here's what I think would correlate to the 2020-21 LRC's first storm system right around Oct 6th (ish)...look at the 00z GEFS animation below and there is a storm today tracking near the western Aleutian islands and taking a due west/east track suggesting to me we could see a storm develop in the central Plains and track eastward right about the time the new LRC evolves.  The pattern looks quite intriguing to me and with blocking in toe, I foresee an active and cool pattern for a lot of us on here to open up October.  Pretty neat stuff happening all across the Northern Hemisphere as nature really starts to energize the jet stream.

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The low bottomed out at 39 here at my house. That 39 was also the official low at GRR. At this time it is sunny and a cool 41 at my house. And yes I had to turn the furnace on this AM for the 2nd time this month. I think it could be time to shut down the AC and put the winter covering on as I don't think it will get warm enough for the AC until next May or June.

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17 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

An almost perfect day here weather-wise (outside of some gusty winds), a great day to spend some time outside... the smoke from the western wildfires certainly has obscured the blue skies and the visibility has even dropped just a bit. Was out working in the yard this afternoon and felt very little warmth from the afternoon sun.
 

My wife unfortunately tested positive for COVID-19 a couple days ago, so going to be outside a lot more with my two boys to keep our distance as much as we can... it’s not a great situation but she’s been feeling okay, no major issues with the virus so far outside of a few mild symptoms.

Hope she gets through it just fine!

Been a nice weekend up here in St Paul. Had a nice bbq and fire last night.

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Stay safe and healthy my friend!  Like you, we are having delightful autumn-like wx around here.  While not active, I'm content having nothing but sunshine and temps in the 70's for the entire week coming up.  As Jaster mentioned, 1st round of Indian Summer wx heading for our region.  There were some isolated locals in the coldest spots that had some frost yesterday morning but more so into MI/IN.

 

 

Thank you guys for the well wishes! It's definitely a sobering reminder that this virus isn't going anywhere unfortunately and is a threat to our health. 

I received my test results this morning, and thankfully I tested negative along with my youngest son. This is definitely not an ideal situation, as I cannot return to work for at least another week (I work in field sales so I can't work remotely) and the kids have been forced back to remote learning and they cannot participate in sports activities (after being back at school since the middle of August).

Most important part is for my family to stay healthy, and to make sure my wife battles though and recovers from this virus.  

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Attm, 61F under mostly sunny skies. Dew is an incredibly dry 39F, which, enables you to write your name on your skin w your own finger.

 

Just finished a massive work-out, including an intense cardio, so I am now about to do some (yes, paperwork in my homeoffice, which neva seems to stop, right, even on a Sunday..UGH). If time permits today, I might take advantage of a aggressive bike ride up the hills.

 

Note:  Medicane, also referred to as " Mediterranean cyclones," did some major damage to the western and northern parts of Greece. Luckily, my properties are on the far eastern side, so nothing really disruptive occurred on that part of the country. Very rare to experience that type of weather in that part of the world, but they do sometimes happen. Few rare occasions, some  huge storms have been observed reaching the strength of a Category 1 hurricane. Friends and family sent me video and could not  believe my eyes. Flooding was more than 2 meters.

 

Btw: don't forget, Tuesday of next week, September 22nd, 2020 at 9;30am, "Autumn" arrives.

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Happy Monday!  Gosh, I can't believe we are already at the last week full work week of September.  Time is flying by this year for me.  Yesterday, I was visiting a friend and was in charge of the Weber grill duties and while doing so, that sun felt sooo nice.  It was a picture perfect Sunday for Football, Grilling and outdoor activities.  He lives on a golf course and it was packed.  I also noticed how blue the skies were the past few days but the smokey skies filled in towards late in the afternoon.  It's crazy how long this phenomenon is going on for.  I remember experiencing smokey skies in the summer of '14 or '15 I think it was but it didn't last this long.  Iirc, those fires back then came from western Canada and not the west coast of the USA.  Wonder how much longer this pattern will continue bc it looks bone dry and Hot out in Cali as we head into October.  The PAC NW is cooling off and getting wet which is great news for them folks.  Hopefully soon enough a storm system will be able to track farther south and bring some rains down to Cali.

 

Over the next week, some much appreciable rains heading to the PAC NW...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_28.png

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On this last day of Summer, what a splendid day mother nature has in store for nearly all of us on here.  My goodness, you can't ask for a better forecast than this...upper 70's and sunshine galore...wash, rinse, repeat for the remainder of this week until late in the weekend when a storm system I've been waiting to unfold will flip the pattern on a dime as we close out the last few days of the month and open up October.  It's amazing to me how nearly every year right around the beginning of October the pattern seems to "snap" into an entirely different one.  Needless to say, I think this coming week will probably be one of the Top 3 best stretches of calm, warm Autumn weather around these parts.  

Let's see what the models are showing for next weekend...

00z EPS not really to wet for the most part except for the Northwoods...it gets wetter into early next week, however, for the GL's region.

 

00z GFS...

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z EPS advertising a couple of BN days to close the month....

 

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Hello all. Lots of great stuff Tom. Glad to see some real autumn weather to start, well, autumn.  Lol. Why is it so strange that it's actually going to really be a great season? The weather looks absolutely perfect going forward, by my standards. 

 

Anyway, good riddance, summer. Its a beautiful last day of it.

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80's all week here with a possible 91 Friday.  Looks to start the cool down Saturday and beyond.  Dry as a bone around here, which I guess is good for harvest.  Talked to a farmer at a wedding reception Saturday night.  He said May 1-Sept. 20 has been the driest stretch of weather at his farm south of town since at least 1988.  He has measured only a little over 9" in that almost 5 month period.  

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3rd straight morning in the 30s here. Just drove north to Lansing and back and the trees (some brilliant red) are noticeably turning, especially in the usual early places like low-lying marshes. Otherwise just a splendid recovery to 71F this pm and then mid-70s all week. Grass is lush and tall again too. Gotta get some more late golfing in tho too, lol

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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30 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

80's all week here with a possible 91 Friday.  Looks to start the cool down Saturday and beyond.  Dry as a bone around here, which I guess is good for harvest.  Talked to a farmer at a wedding reception Saturday night.  He said May 1-Sept. 20 has been the driest stretch of weather at his farm south of town since at least 1988.  He has measured only a little over 9" in that almost 5 month period.  

It would be nice to get another rainer to break up the monotony. The grass and lawns actually greened back up quite a bit here from the cold rain event a couple weeks ago. I guess it's becoming more moot though since we're approaching dead (well dormant I guess) grass season. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

It would be nice to get another rainer to break up the monotony. The grass and lawns actually greened back up quite a bit here from the cold rain event a couple weeks ago. I guess it's becoming more moot though since we're approaching dead (well dormant I guess) grass season. 

Yea, grass actually looks better around here with the weather being closer to average and lawn sprinklers doing their job without the 90's-100's.  Our varsity football field had a fungus last week that made it look like it was drying up.  They sent a sample to UNL's Turf Management division and the appropriate spray has now been applied.  It looked pretty rough last Friday night at the varsity game, but appears to be improving some today and they hope it is green and lush for the homecoming game on Friday, Oct. 2nd.

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Just looked at some weather averages around here.  Normal afternoon highs for Sept. 22nd are in the low 70's and lows are about 46-47.  Next week looks like highs in the low 70's then falling to the lower to mid 60's with lows in the 40's.  Still very few rain chances in the extended.

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6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

80's all week here with a possible 91 Friday.  Looks to start the cool down Saturday and beyond.  Dry as a bone around here, which I guess is good for harvest.  Talked to a farmer at a wedding reception Saturday night.  He said May 1-Sept. 20 has been the driest stretch of weather at his farm south of town since at least 1988.  He has measured only a little over 9" in that almost 5 month period.  

That is a remarkable observation. I haven't studied 1988 much but I will now. Thank you for sharing. Interesting...

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3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That is a remarkable observation. I haven't studied 1988 much but I will now. Thank you for sharing. Interesting...

Going to smack myself now. Second worst drought in US history, but likely worst in Northern great plains US history. 

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8 hours ago, Jaycee said:

The lack of rain here is so depressing. Rain in the fall is always the best. Hope things change soon 😕

Your type of Fall weather is coming next week starting on Monday that will bring cold, windy, raw/wet type of autumn days around here and throughout the MW/GL's region.  Models starting to hone in on a vigorous Autumn storm system to traverse the northern Sub and usher in the seasons 1st legit Autumn storm around these parts.

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As we welcome the 1st day of astronomical Autumn today, the weather Gods will certainly be blessing us with amazing Indian Summer conditions.  The forecast today couldn't get any better.  Just about as perfect as one could ask for.  Get out and enjoy it bc things are going to change soon!

 

Boy, some abrupt changes are about to occur starting late this weekend into the early next week.  It definitely appears that we are heading towards some real autumn weather and a more active pattern for most of the Sub.  As it stands now, the GL's region looks to get most of the action to kick start this pattern change with a robust northern wave that slides down SE out of Canada in a La Nina-like fashion and could basically blow up into a major wound up early season system.  Big time  high lat blocking develops along with a Greenland Block that looks to lock in a long-term long-wave trough for the eastern CONUS into the foreseeable future.  When I say "lock", I'm pretty confident this is going to last well into the 1st half of Octobrrrrr.  The BSR is going to be a strong long lead forecasting method that surely looks to have a bonafide win in my book.  

 

00z EPS locking in the "chill" for Week 2....I'm issuing a "Great Lakes Water Spout" alert for next week...I'm afraid we will be seeing beach erosion season begin as well.  There is some interesting weather on the horizon and quite a different open to the month of October from what we've been used to.  A sneak peak into October and the 00z EPS is suggesting a signal that a storm system will develop over the central Plains and usher in moisture.  This may indeed be our 1st storm of the LRC 2020-21 cycle.  It's been on my calendar so let's see if this comes into fruition.

 

 

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With just 9 days left in September now is a good time to see where we stared for this month. At Grand Rapids the mean so far this month is 61.0 that is a departure of -3.7 the high for the month so far is 85 and the low so far is 36.  There has been 2.10” of rain. At Muskegon the mean is 62.2 that is a departure of -1.6 the high so far 81 and the low so far is 37 and they have had 1.37” of rain. At Holland the mean is 61.3 the high so far is 82 and the low is 34. They have recorded 2.17” of rain. At Lansing the mean is 60.6 the high so far 84 and the low 34. They have recorded 2.45” of rain. On the east side of the state Detroit has a current mean of 63.4 that is a departure of -2.8 the high so far is 85 and the low is 38. At Flint the mean there is 59.0 that is a departure of -3.9. The high so far is 83 and the low is a cool 30 they have recorded 3.03” of rain fall. At Saginaw the mean there so far is 60.6  that is a departure of -2.4. the high so far 85 and the low so far is 36. They have recorded 3.29” of rain fall. Up north at Alpena the mean there is 55.4 that is a departure -4.0 the high there so far is 81 and the low is a frosty 28. They have had just 1.45” of rain fall. At Houghton Lake the mean is 54.9  the high there so far is 80 and the low is 26. They have only had 1.08” of rain fall. At the Sault the mean there is 54.7 that is a departure of -4.1 the high there so far is just 72 and the low is 34. They have had 2.52” of rain. And at Marquette the mean there is 52.6 that is a departure of -5.0 the high there so far is 75 and the low so far is 32. They have reported 1.75” of rain. So, this has been a cool and is spots dry September. Many areas have seen their first frost and freeze. It should be noted that many areas have already seen the highest temperatures for the month and maybe the warmest until next year

 

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Welcoming Autumn today with another fall favorite. Cool steady rainfall. Its been so many years since I can even remember a September like this one in weather for me. It's been the kind of September that I could dream of. I know that sounds so silly. I really do, but I just wanted to be thankful. I'm blessed to be where I am when so many aren't at peace right now, have dealt with numerous weather and climatologically-related disasters to the sum of 4B, and many other things. My life is not really at peace, itself, sometimes right now if I'm honest. Kinda scary to look ahead or assume too far. I know a lot of us feel like that. I just want to be thankful for something I mostly gripe about and/or don't say anything at all about and take for granted. My weather has been awesome. I'm thankful to God and blessed enough I got to slow down for a second to reflect and enjoy it. 

I'm thankful it is fall,....ya'll. :)

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This sucks. 87°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

This sucks. 87°F.

That does!! Wow.

Perfect night here. Had to broom a bunch of leaves off the deck. That helps gettin those fall vibes goin! Doin chicken, potatoes and sweetcorn on the Weber. No wind at all and low 70s. Love it 

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@ James

Wow does that sound delicious 😋

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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It's another comfortable morning with a current temp in the upper 50's (56F).  I could get used to this tranquil and warm weather pattern but we still need some more rain.  Speaking of which, the models are not trending kindly over here for a good soaker and primarily hitting N and E of here.  Full disclosure, this storm early next week totally feels like I'm tracking a hybrid clipper that would blast the GL's with a good synoptic snow along with a vicious LES set up on the back end.

The 00z Euro brings down some of the coldest air of the season with multiple days of lake effect rains next week and highs in the 40's for parts of the GL's.

 

 

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It's certainly looking pretty chilly next week as a deep trough digs and holds over the eastern US.  As far as rain goes, it sure would be nice if we could get something more consistent.  We went weeks with nothing from July into early August, then we got the derecho.  Then, we went weeks more with nothing and then a week of nothing but rain.  Now, we're right back to weeks with nothing again.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Beta is doing its dirty job down south. Los of flooding due to its slow progression.

 

OkWx missed out on Beta's hvy rains unfortunately, as all of this moisture is moving east.

 

Speaking of the tropics, "Gamma" is next, if we do get another named storm, which I am sure we will.

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The average high for Iowa City on October 1st is 70, Euro is showing temps in the low to mid 50s.  That sucks.  I want to hang on to the warm weather as long as possible.  Even with this cold we aren't going to see snow, so I'd much rather keep highs in the 70s until about Thanksgiving when we have real shots of snow.  I don't mind a cool day here or there, but that trough means business on the Euro, so that's a multi day cool down coming up.  

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You can't get more boring weather than what we've had for the last few weeks.  Basically everyday is mid 80's or a little higher, breezy south wind, smoky skies, and a dew of about 50.  Very dry conditions continue with no end in sight according to local forecasts.  Hopefully cooler weather is coming, but we'll need quite a storm to put a dent in the drought.  

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Looks to be close to a record high on Friday near 93, before it cools down next week. Still no precip.

In fact this month, Omaha has only had 4 days of measurable precip and that was all with that stalled out system that brought our only rainfall this month. The next week looks dry so we should make it the entire month with only that system/rainfall. The 2nd severe weather season is about done here as well.

Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind 8 to 10 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 85. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 61. South wind 3 to 5 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 92. South wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. South southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Breezy.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 69. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 66.
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It's another comfortable, cool and calm morning here today with a temp hovering in the upper 50's (57F). Wash, rinse, repeat....I could get used to this but I'm afraid my windows will be closed by this time next week and my furnace will be activated for the 1st time this season.  

Speaking of next week, BIG changes brewing on the Euro/Ukie for early next week as both models are suggesting a "Pan Handle Hook" type of storm system to traverse the Southern/Eastern Sub Sun-Wed and bombing out near the GL's.  Woah, this is quite the change and fascinating to say the least.  What a way to finish off the month, ay???

 

00z EPS has turned significantly wetter down near OK/MO and up through the OHV due to this system it's starting to "see"....

 

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13 hours ago, Niko said:

This will be next week y'all....."Get Ready."

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Next-Week-1.jpg?w=632

 

The edge of the trough. My favorite. 🤠

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I know this happens each year. But in my walks and drives around the area it looks like in the last week a lot of the trees have now started to change. That may be due to the sunny dry days we have had. At this time it is clear and 58 here at my house. 

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