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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


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The biggest takeaway off the CFSv2 in the forecast trends are the following:

 

1) Much colder waters in the central/eastern PAC

2) Wetter/Cooler for the central/eastern Sub

3) Blocking over the Arctic

 

 

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Found out last night that an old friend from college passed away yesterday from COVID. Only 40 years old and no other health issues. Unfortunately, he made the decision to go to the Sturgis bike rally

Just looked outside and every roof, car, etc is covered in a thick layer of frost.

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The biggest takeaway off the CFSv2 in the forecast trends are the following:

 

1) Much colder waters in the central/eastern PAC

2) Wetter/Cooler for the central/eastern Sub

3) Blocking over the Arctic

The arctic blast next week really commands that map, cuz after that the sub looks to be near normal for the rest of the month. EPS is trending cooler, though. Looking forward to today's weeklies.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Models are showing tomorrow’s light to moderate rain event to mostly be southeast of Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. The GFS does clip this area with about 1/4” rain. But most other models keep it dry here. Either way that’s not going to do much to help the developing drought

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Yikes, the Euro also ushers down some big time chill mid/late next week!  The 12z EPS agrees that potentially record setting cold may be on the table across the Plains.

 

@ Fargo, definitely seeing some #Hoodie  #Jacket weather in your back yard!

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65 for the forecast high next Tuesday!

57 here.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Indeed, the first 60s for highs looking likely next week, starting at or a day after the LDW and throughout the remainder of the week. Nippy 40s for lows, so, yes, there will be a drastic change in the air temp. Met Autumn will make its presence.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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12z Euro brings more precip up through the MW in recent runs....12z UKIE is similar in placement...

That would be great for me and hopefully verifies, but most of the CAMs show rainfall a little further south attm.

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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We took a road trip up to Ludington and had a lunch at the park at the beach. It was cloudy and a cool 72 there at the beach. But all in all a good road trip for the end of met summer. At this time it is partly cloudy and 73 here at my house. Also the updated CPC long range guess is now calling for below average temperatures for September

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It looks like soon fall will be in the air. I recorded 0.05" of rain fall overnight so just enough to dampen the ground. At this time it is mostly cloudy and 66 here at my house the latest reading from the airport was 67 no rain was reported at GRR overnight.

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In looking back at August in West Michigan.

For the month of August Grand Rapids had a mean of 72.0 that is a departure of +1.2. The high for the month was 91 on the 24th and 26th the low was 52 on the 19th there was 2.60” of rain fall below the average of 3.59”. At Muskegon the mean was 72.2 that is a departure of +2.3 the high was 91 on the 14th and the low was 49 on the 5th there was 2.22” of rain fall the average there for August is 3.39” At Holland the mean was 71.3 that is a departure of +0.3 the high for the month was 90 on the 14th and the low was 48 on the 19th Holland recorded 2.16” of rain fall with 3.57” being average. At Kalamazoo the mean was 72.5 that is a departure of +1.3 the high for the month was 95 on the 27th and the low for the month was 50 on the 19th they reported 3.08” of rain fall there average rain fall for August is 3.87” and at Lansing the mean was 71.6 that is a departure of +1.8. the high was 92 on the 24th and 27th and the low was 49 on the 19th they recorded 3.45” of rain fall and the is above the average of 3.37 there.  So it was warmer and dryer across west Michigan with only Lansing recorded above average rain fall.

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Attm, its 71F under sunny skies. Some stormy weather is possible today as a frontal boundary stalls.

 

Btw: August was sweet. Received 5.99" of rainfall. That is 206% above the norm. I bet the "Drought Monitor will have different results soon for my area :D

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Sadly not yet. I can see it passing a few miles south. Maybe some later?

Actually I'm not expecting much and so far it's just south as most models had shown. Nice big system in Oklahoma etc!

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Another near miss here. Euro was too far north. The NAM did pretty well with coverage on this event. Obviously we’re in desperate need of rain

 

Short term models seem to be inching further north.  Radar trend is encouraging as well.  I'll take anything at this point.

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I might struggle to reach the mid-50s here next Tuesday.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Well, I am fain to find out that my area has now been removed from the "Abnormally Dry" cat and is near average in rainfall, but above for the month of August. Thanks to the wet weather last week, which helped boost up those numbers. Lets see how September goes in terms of rainfall.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I've been under a mid-level stratus deck all day. Even with a steady South wind, the temperature has been very slow to rise. Looks like the deck will clear but I still doubt we hit our upper 70s forecast. 61*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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FGF on next weekend's frontal passage

 

 

 

There will be a chance for shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
ahead of the wave traversing the region on late Saturday/early
Sunday, however; exact timing and confidence in this precipitation
event is still quite variable and will continue to be monitored.
Another cold front associated with this second forward propagating
wave will again introduce some gusty winds and notably cooler
temperatures to the area. Moving further into weekend, high
temperatures for Sunday should be able to stay in the mid 60s. With
the introduction of more northerly surface flow and CAA into the
area, ensemble spread is in agreement on overnight lows on Monday
and Tuesday morning reaching the mid to low 40s with some areas
flirting with low temperatures in the upper 30s. Attendant high
temperatures look to also rebound only into the mid to upper 50s
to start the work week.

 

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Euro weeklies are nasty after the arctic blast. Pushes the ridge towards us and keeps it here through the end of the run.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Today's 12z Euro suggesting some "September Snow" coming for the Front Range of the Rockies next week!  Quite an impressive shot of early season Arctic Air...wow!  If this happens, it would be something really special.  I just drove through that area and I had visions of what it would look like when it snows here.  That's a lot of snow for early September.

 

 

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Well, I am fain to find out that my area has now been removed from the "Abnormally Dry" cat and is near average in rainfall, but above for the month of August. Thanks to the wet weather last week, which helped boost up those numbers. Lets see how September goes in terms of rainfall.

If the rainfall was widespread enough it should show up on the drought map, but if only a small spot it might not.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Des Moines NWS regarding next week. Love it!!:

 

Right on the heels of the Saturday evening/night shortwave, a much

stronger cyclone will swing across southern Canada and likely the

Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions later in the weekend. This

has the potential to bring the first real fall-like weather to the

region, depending on its southward penetration, with additional

rain chances followed by significantly cooler temperatures in the

first half of next week. Stay tuned folks.

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Attm, getting hvy rain and lightning. No wind or thunder. Some areas tanite will receive more than an inch of water. Just depends on where you are. Looks like my area scores once again. My drought monitor here in SEMI will be very happy w much further encouraging results.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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It’s actually raining here. Unfortunately I can’t get a measurement as my rain gauge broke and I haven’t picked up a new one and the local high school is no longer reporting. I’d guess we only got a tenth of an inch but it was enough to make everything wet.

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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It appears Sparky is getting some heavy rain from a decent line.  Any heavier showers split around CR today, only leaving sprinkles or very light rain for us.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Unfortunately I can’t get a measurement as my rain gauge broke and I haven’t picked up a new one and the local high school is no longer reporting.

 

KCRG has let their StormNet stations and web portal fall into disrepair.  I can no longer even access any of the still-working stations through their website.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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What looked like a cooler Labor Day weekend is turning into a HOT one for the central Plains states and into parts of the MW.  If the Euro is right, some places may make a run towards 100F out in NE on both Sunday and Monday.  Relief comes late on Monday when a powerful CF races south and ushers down some bone chilling cold for the time of year.  I think this would be devastating for crops if trends continue.  

 

The 00z Euro is suggesting daytime highs, yup, daytime highs in the low/mid 40's nearly 24 hours later after basking in the 90's for a few days.  Wow, talk about a pattern flip!  Not to mention, but those out in the CO Front Range will be flirting with record heat and then possible Record Cold and SNOW!!!  As a weather enthusiast, I'd love to be there to witness this transition.  Call me crazy, but that would be a sight to see!

 

 

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