SilverFallsAndrew 14951 Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 What are your early analogs for the coming autumnal and winter seasons? Do tell! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6818 Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 1933 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14951 Posted August 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 1933 Tigerwoodlibido's favorite! Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6818 Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 Tigerwoodlibido's favorite! December 1933 was like December 2015 on steroids. Fun month. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14951 Posted August 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 December 1933 was like December 2015 on steroids. Fun month. 17.54" of rain at Salem. Pretty impressive. At SLE it was 2" wetter than 2015 and 2-3F warmer. Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 11798 Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 For me would have to be La Niña, descending westerly shear, following warm season dateline subsidence w/ dominant standing wave in IO. Excluding well-established cold phase yrs until midwinter at the earliest. Not yet sure which years best fit this tendency. Quote Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14951 Posted August 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 For me would have to be La Niña, descending westerly shear, following warm season dateline subsidence w/ dominant standing wave in IO. Excluding well-established cold phase yrs until midwinter at the earliest. Not yet sure which years best fit this tendency. Throw me a bone dogg. I won't hold you to it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Omegaraptor 2393 Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 2016-17 actually doesn’t seem like a bad analog. It had a developing Niña, premature flip to +QBO, and was fairly recent as opposed to old analogs where the Hadley Cells weren’t as wide as they are at present. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 11798 Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Throw me a bone dogg. I won't hold you to it.Oh gawd. I guess 1992/93, 1998/99, and 2016/17 are loose matches? Most of the best shear stress matches are +ENSO, with the exception of 2016/17. Multiyear +ENSO followed by -ENSO isn’t a frequent combination, and the ones that immediately come to mind such as 1988/89, 1995/96, etc, aren’t good analogs from any other standpoint except for that. Quote Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
Front Ranger 7606 Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 The search for the holy grail of weather weenies, The Perfect Analog, continues... Quote Low. Solar. Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5633 Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 1933 Triggered... I'll go with Nov 1985, a better Dec 2008, Jan 1950 & 1969 greatest hits, Feb 2019 Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6818 Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Triggered... I'll go with Nov 1985, a better Dec 2008, Jan 1950 & 1969 greatest hits, Feb 2019 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5633 Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 I'll throw early Feb 2014 into there too Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 11786 Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Oh gawd. I guess 1992/93, 1998/99, and 2016/17 are loose matches? Most of the best shear stress matches are +ENSO, with the exception of 2016/17. Multiyear +ENSO followed by -ENSO isn’t a frequent combination, and the ones that immediately come to mind such as 1988/89, 1995/96, etc, aren’t good analogs from any other standpoint except for that. Those three would be a good solid mix. This ultra low solar min (in fact ultra low pair of solar mins) may add some old time fun to the mix as well. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 38 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 11786 Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 The search for the holy grail of weather weenies, The Perfect Analog, continues... I don't think analogs are going to be the way to go this time. Too many odd ball things or things that haven't happened for decades going on. I think the current regime shift in the behavior of the QBO could be a huge deal going forward. High chance that is solar driven. That having been said analogs are a viable tool that almost have to be used to some extent in long rage forecasting. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 38 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 11786 Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 1933 For a Nina year that was an incredible anomaly...probably on par with 1949-50 on the other end of the spectrum. For practical purposes I think we should avoid analogs that are so extreme unless they are used as part of a blend containing many years. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 38 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
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