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September 2020 Heatwave Forecast Contest


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This is no time for jokes.

 

Stay home. Stay safe.

 

Tuesday 9-1 through Tuesday 9-8.

 

Portland International Airport and Seattle/Tacoma International Airport.

 

Highs/Lows/Acreage Burned/Total Ashfall

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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My entry, I added 2 additional days because the heatwave looks like it will be extended.

 

PDX-

 

9-1: 87/61

9-2: 88/59

9-3: 93/62

9-4: 94/61

9-5: 91/61

9-6: 95/64

9-7: 97/66

9-8: 98/68

9-9: 99/64

9-10: 93/61

 

SEA-

 

9-1: 79/58

9-2: 78/57

9-3: 81/58

9-4: 84/59

9-5: 83/60

9-6: 84/61

9-7: 85/61

9-8: 89/62

9-9: 91/60

9/10: 87/58

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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I’m putting a max bet on the OVER.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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On 8/31/2020 at 11:48 PM, Frontal Snowsquall said:

My entry, I added 2 additional days because the heatwave looks like it will be extended.

 

PDX-

 

9-1: 87/61

9-2: 88/59

9-3: 93/62

9-4: 94/61

9-5: 91/61

9-6: 95/64

9-7: 97/66

9-8: 98/68

9-9: 99/64

9-10: 93/61

 

For reference, here were the actual numbers at PDX:

88/59

91/62

95/61

88/63

76/59

89/56

91/61

81/65

89/65

81/61

Ended up with three 90+ days at PDX and a maximum stretch of two consecutive. As opposed to the eight total/eight consecutive forecast here. As I said going into this pattern, there are a lot of things that can mitigate heat by the time we get into September, even if models are showing wall to wall ridging like they were.

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

For reference, here were the actual numbers at PDX:

88/59

91/62

95/61

88/63

76/59

89/56

91/61

81/65

89/65

81/61

Ended up with three 90+ days at PDX and a maximum stretch of two consecutive. As opposed to the eight total/eight consecutive forecast here. As I said going into this pattern, there are a lot of things that can mitigate heat by the time we get into September, even if models are showing wall to wall ridging like they were.

 

Forecasting lessons from a guy who didn’t make a forecast.🤔

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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This thing sure ended up being a dud.  No doubt the smoke had something to do with that.  At any rate PDX is only running a few degrees above normal for the month to date.  1967 probably has nothing to worry about.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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On 9/11/2020 at 8:19 AM, Jesse said:

For reference, here were the actual numbers at PDX:

88/59

91/62

95/61

88/63

76/59

89/56

91/61

81/65

89/65

81/61

Ended up with three 90+ days at PDX and a maximum stretch of two consecutive. As opposed to the eight total/eight consecutive forecast here. As I said going into this pattern, there are a lot of things that can mitigate heat by the time we get into September, even if models are showing wall to wall ridging like they were.

 

1. Like Dewey said you didn’t make a forecast

2. smoke kept temps down

3. there were other forecast just as bad, some had highs over 100 degrees, why single him out and not others?

 

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35 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said:

1. Like Dewey said you didn’t make a forecast

2. smoke kept temps down

3. there were other forecast just as bad, some had highs over 100 degrees, why single him out and not others?

 

Smoke didn’t start affecting temps until the 10th (last day of the forecast period)

His forecast was probably the best example of a face value regurgitation of raw model output.

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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This thing sure ended up being a dud.  No doubt the smoke had something to do with that.  At any rate PDX is only running a few degrees above normal for the month to date.  1967 probably has nothing to worry about.

1967? The warmest Septembers on record are 2014 and 1994.

Also, as was mentioned, the smoke didn’t really start affecting things at the surface until the 10th.

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On 8/29/2020 at 12:11 PM, Deweydog said:

This is no time for jokes.

 

Stay home. Stay safe.

 

Tuesday 9-1 through Tuesday 9-8.

 

Portland International Airport and Seattle/Tacoma International Airport.

 

Highs/Lows/Acreage Burned/Total Ashfall

Man, this little bit of snark really didn't age well....

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2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Man, this little bit of snark really didn't age well....

Says the guy who didn’t make a forecast but went out of his way to post only snark in a forecast thread.🤔

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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