Jump to content

September 2020 Heatwave Forecast Contest


Deweydog

Recommended Posts

According to my weather app my area does not get out of the 70’s and it’s going to rain on Monday. So I am expelled from this contest.

But I do smell smoke tonight!

85EFEABA-36C3-465F-85F1-88EF97F6A042.jpeg

  • Sun 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I made mine without looking at weather models or Bainbridge’s death models.

Jesse will be right with you with the 12z TDC (Tree death count) model.
  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My entry, I added 2 additional days because the heatwave looks like it will be extended.

 

PDX-

 

9-1: 87/61

9-2: 88/59

9-3: 93/62

9-4: 94/61

9-5: 91/61

9-6: 95/64

9-7: 97/66

9-8: 98/68

9-9: 99/64

9-10: 93/61

 

SEA-

 

9-1: 79/58

9-2: 78/57

9-3: 81/58

9-4: 84/59

9-5: 83/60

9-6: 84/61

9-7: 85/61

9-8: 89/62

9-9: 91/60

9/10: 87/58

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m putting a max bet on the OVER.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/31/2020 at 11:48 PM, Frontal Snowsquall said:

My entry, I added 2 additional days because the heatwave looks like it will be extended.

 

PDX-

 

9-1: 87/61

9-2: 88/59

9-3: 93/62

9-4: 94/61

9-5: 91/61

9-6: 95/64

9-7: 97/66

9-8: 98/68

9-9: 99/64

9-10: 93/61

 

For reference, here were the actual numbers at PDX:

88/59

91/62

95/61

88/63

76/59

89/56

91/61

81/65

89/65

81/61

Ended up with three 90+ days at PDX and a maximum stretch of two consecutive. As opposed to the eight total/eight consecutive forecast here. As I said going into this pattern, there are a lot of things that can mitigate heat by the time we get into September, even if models are showing wall to wall ridging like they were.

 

  • Downvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

For reference, here were the actual numbers at PDX:

88/59

91/62

95/61

88/63

76/59

89/56

91/61

81/65

89/65

81/61

Ended up with three 90+ days at PDX and a maximum stretch of two consecutive. As opposed to the eight total/eight consecutive forecast here. As I said going into this pattern, there are a lot of things that can mitigate heat by the time we get into September, even if models are showing wall to wall ridging like they were.

 

Forecasting lessons from a guy who didn’t make a forecast.🤔

  • Like 3
  • Downvote 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This thing sure ended up being a dud.  No doubt the smoke had something to do with that.  At any rate PDX is only running a few degrees above normal for the month to date.  1967 probably has nothing to worry about.

  • Confused 1
  • Sun 1
  • Downvote 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/11/2020 at 8:19 AM, Jesse said:

For reference, here were the actual numbers at PDX:

88/59

91/62

95/61

88/63

76/59

89/56

91/61

81/65

89/65

81/61

Ended up with three 90+ days at PDX and a maximum stretch of two consecutive. As opposed to the eight total/eight consecutive forecast here. As I said going into this pattern, there are a lot of things that can mitigate heat by the time we get into September, even if models are showing wall to wall ridging like they were.

 

1. Like Dewey said you didn’t make a forecast

2. smoke kept temps down

3. there were other forecast just as bad, some had highs over 100 degrees, why single him out and not others?

 

  • Like 2
  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said:

1. Like Dewey said you didn’t make a forecast

2. smoke kept temps down

3. there were other forecast just as bad, some had highs over 100 degrees, why single him out and not others?

 

Smoke didn’t start affecting temps until the 10th (last day of the forecast period)

His forecast was probably the best example of a face value regurgitation of raw model output.

  • Downvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This thing sure ended up being a dud.  No doubt the smoke had something to do with that.  At any rate PDX is only running a few degrees above normal for the month to date.  1967 probably has nothing to worry about.

1967? The warmest Septembers on record are 2014 and 1994.

Also, as was mentioned, the smoke didn’t really start affecting things at the surface until the 10th.

  • Downvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/29/2020 at 12:11 PM, Deweydog said:

This is no time for jokes.

 

Stay home. Stay safe.

 

Tuesday 9-1 through Tuesday 9-8.

 

Portland International Airport and Seattle/Tacoma International Airport.

 

Highs/Lows/Acreage Burned/Total Ashfall

Man, this little bit of snark really didn't age well....

  • Downvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 372

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

    5. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

×
×
  • Create New...