iFred 5194 Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Odds are low that it will snow. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10611 Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Odds are low that it will snow.Anything is possible in 2020. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14121 Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Odds are low that it will snow.But it may blow, or a nuclear disaster may make us all glow. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6818 Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Can we skip it? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Can we skip it? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mr Marine Layer 1422 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 It's meteorological fall. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4428 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 54 here on this first morning of fall. Quote Cold season stats Coldest low-25 Coldest high-32 Freezes-16 Monthly rainfall-0.82” Cold season rainfall-32.91” Snowfall-15.5” Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 00Z EPS shows western OR being ground zero for heat on Labor Day... Its shows warmth through the entire run and is still warm at day 15... 8-15 day mean: Day 15... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
seattleweatherguy 483 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Looks like a warm September 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10611 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Summer is over!!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 SEA summer temp stats: June +0.9 July +1.3 August +1.8 That averages to +1.3 for the entire summer... which is in the range of UHI at that station. So it was basically a normal summer. Although Randy's area was colder than normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10611 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 SEA summer temp stats: June +0.9 July +1.3 August +1.8 That averages to +1.3 for the entire summer... which is in the range of UHI at that station. So it was basically a normal summer. Although Randy's area was colder than normal. I’m in the dark green! Was definitely a chilly summer up here. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4428 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 We will see how this heat wave pans out....I’m guessing we get 5 more 80+ days and 2 85+ days. I doubt we will actually hit 90 here again this summer so close to the water. Quote Cold season stats Coldest low-25 Coldest high-32 Freezes-16 Monthly rainfall-0.82” Cold season rainfall-32.91” Snowfall-15.5” Link to post Share on other sites
Front Ranger 7606 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Of course, we all know that September is closer to a summer month than fall in the PNW. First half is solidly summer everywhere, as evidenced by this upcoming heatwave. Quote Low. Solar. Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14951 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Someone needs to pin this. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6818 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Pin. I just made a September related post in the August thread and feel rather embarrassed. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14121 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Hi fall! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14951 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 The soil moisture content in the south valley around Eugene needs to be near an all-time low. Three of the driest years on record now, its hard to even describe how dry and parched the landscape is down there. Has to make a difference with temp anomalies right now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10611 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Pin. I just made a September related post in the August thread and feel rather embarrassed.And I responded to your post...You should feel even more embarrassed. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 And I responded to your post...You should feel even more embarrassed. And I responded to your post... it just gets worse. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6818 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 And I responded to your post...You should feel even more embarrassed. It's monthly weather discussion anarchy! Thanks Trump! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6818 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 The soil moisture content in the south valley around Eugene needs to be near an all-time low. Three of the driest years on record now, its hard to even describe how dry and parched the landscape is down there. Has to make a difference with temp anomalies right now. It's been dry no doubt but I have questioned EUG's precip data for awhile. They seem to be a bit of an outlier. I'm wondering if they have relocated some equipment in the last decade. https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or1897 Cottage Grove is another long term station in the south valley and they show a near historically dry year in 2018, a slightly dry year in 2019, and a near average 2020 so far. And their numbers are consistently way ahead of EUG even though their historic averages are very similar. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5633 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 It's been dry no doubt but I have questioned EUG's precip data for awhile. They seem to be a bit of an outlier. I'm wondering if they have relocated some equipment in the last decade. https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or1897 Cottage Grove is another long term station in the south valley and they show a near historically dry year in 2018, a slightly dry year in 2019, and a near average 2020 so far. And their numbers are consistently way ahead of EUG even though their historic averages are very similar. Well the landscape certainly looks more parched. Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
GobBluth 283 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 some disagreement next week on how close the trough digs and limits the transport of the heat from the deserts up north.Euro/EPS on its own now - still hard not to believe its the correct forecast. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 11798 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Quote Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Continuing this discussion from the August thread.... Climo's a 8itch dude. We're probably not going to see 16 days in a row of 99th percentile ridging. It's a sharp event centered around the 7th-9th and the ensembles have pretty consistently shown a crash between the 10th-13th. Whether it's as dramatic as the 12z shows with highs in the 50s remains to be seen, although it would fit the historic pattern after historic early month ridging (Septembers 1944 and 1988 both had rather chilly troughs mid month). FWIW... the 12Z GEFS shows a weak break down by next Saturday but the trough splits on arrival. Not too dramatic but cooler than what the EPS is showing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 12Z ECMWF shifted slightly west again... minor details but it keeps it more reasonable. Only low 80s for the Seattle area northward all weekend per the ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
GobBluth 283 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 don't look now but euro moving towards the gfs and gem. correction - heat blast cancel but fire danger is going to be ugly. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10611 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 12Z ECMWF shifted slightly west again... minor details but it keeps it more reasonable. Only low 80s for the Seattle area northward all weekend per the ECMWF.So mostly 70’s at my place then. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kayla 3643 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Euro looks way better. Would be a ranging east wind though so hopefully no new fire starts. Quote Cold Season 2020/21: Total snowfall: 86.0" Highest daily snowfall: 12.0" Highest snow depth: 18.0" Coldest high: -7.0º Coldest low: -17.1º Number of subzero days: 7 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 So mostly 70’s at my place then. Why can't you lament the unbearable, intolerable, hell on Earth heat like the rest of us? Geez Randy. You are going to have to suffer through temps in the 70s. I can't imagine why your preferences are different. Here is Sunday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 12Z ECMWF is much hotter next week for western WA so Randy might get to 80 at some point! Here is day 9 (next Thursday)... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 That is not much of a break down at day 10 either... with a weak trough sliding through BC. Similar feature to the GEFS but much warmer on the ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4428 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 70 and sunny at noon...excellent day excited to see the full moon tonight and do check out some of the other planets in the sky. Hoping that this early September heatwave isn’t too excessive and long lasting. I can’t imagine it’ll torch too much after the first 1/3 of the month as were really starting to have shorter days and longer nights. Quote Cold season stats Coldest low-25 Coldest high-32 Freezes-16 Monthly rainfall-0.82” Cold season rainfall-32.91” Snowfall-15.5” Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 75 and sunny here in north Idaho at noon and exactly the same at home. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4428 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 This August was 0.9 degrees cooler than last August...66.3 last year vs 65.4 this year. Another interesting note...only 4 days 80+ in August this year which is the least amount of 80+ days I’ve had in the month of August. This should also set up September to have more 80+ days than the month of August which has never happened either. Quote Cold season stats Coldest low-25 Coldest high-32 Freezes-16 Monthly rainfall-0.82” Cold season rainfall-32.91” Snowfall-15.5” Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 FWIW... the 12Z EPS does not show any break down through day 15. Here is the 10-15 day period: And day 15.... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
Omegaraptor 2393 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Hope this pattern lasts until Christmas. The exact same 500mb pattern would gradually become pretty murky and foggy and cold if it persisted through Christmas. It would be sunny and in the 50s at the passes though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
Omegaraptor 2393 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 The exact same 500mb pattern would gradually become pretty murky and foggy and cold if it persisted through Christmas. It would be sunny and in the 50s at the passes though. Would be dry though. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14951 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Euro is really struggling. Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4428 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 75 and sunny now...warmest day since 8/20 at this location. Quote Cold season stats Coldest low-25 Coldest high-32 Freezes-16 Monthly rainfall-0.82” Cold season rainfall-32.91” Snowfall-15.5” Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Euro is really struggling.EPS has been showing a heat wave starting about now for 2 weeks. It could not have been more consistent with the overall pattern. Just minor changes in the details. I would not bet against the EPS right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 11798 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 I want the EPS to be right. Please god let the EPS be right for once in my life. Quote Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 I want the EPS to be right. Please god let the EPS be right for once in my life.Stupid edit. Especially from the person who was saying 2 weeks ago that the EPS was going to be wrong. I would say the same thing if it was accurately consistent with cold and showing the cold continuing. I would not bet against it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
Omegaraptor 2393 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 I want the EPS to be right. Please god let the EPS be right for once in my life.There is a historically long September heat wave forecast. Can we please get even more heat? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14121 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Stupid edit. Especially from the person who was saying 2 weeks ago that the EPS was going to be wrong. I would say the same thing if it was accurately consistent with cold and showing the cold continuing. I would not bet against it.Ur giving him what he craves. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Ur giving him what he craves.Good point. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 There is a historically long September heat wave forecast. Can we please get even more heat?So bet against the EPS. Nature will do what you want. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14121 Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 So bet against the EPS. Natire will do what you want.Natire/EPS 2020! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
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