September 2020 WxObs & Discussion

[iFred 5194]

Odds are low that it will snow.

[MossMan 10611]

Odds are low that it will snow.

Anything is possible in 2020.

[Deweydog 14121]

Odds are low that it will snow.

But it may blow, or a nuclear disaster may make us all glow.

[BLI snowman 6818]

Can we skip it?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

Can we skip it?

[Mr Marine Layer 1422]

It's meteorological fall.

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

54 here on this first morning of fall.

[TT-SEA 3764]

00Z EPS shows western OR being ground zero for heat on Labor Day...

 

 

 

Its shows warmth through the entire run and is still warm at day 15... 

 

8-15 day mean:

 

 

 

Day 15...

 

[seattleweatherguy 483]

Looks like a warm September

[MossMan 10611]

Summer is over!!!

[TT-SEA 3764]

SEA summer temp stats:

 

June  +0.9

 

July +1.3

 

August  +1.8

 

That averages to +1.3 for the entire summer... which is in the range of UHI at that station.    So it was basically a normal summer.    

 

 

 

 

Although Randy's area was colder than normal.   

[MossMan 10611]

SEA summer temp stats:

 

June +0.9

 

July +1.3

 

August +1.8

 

That averages to +1.3 for the entire summer... which is in the range of UHI at that station. So it was basically a normal summer.

 

 

 

 

Although Randy's area was colder than normal.

I’m in the dark green! Was definitely a chilly summer up here.

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

We will see how this heat wave pans out....I’m guessing we get 5 more 80+ days and 2 85+ days. I doubt we will actually hit 90 here again this summer so close to the water.

[Front Ranger 7606]

Of course, we all know that September is closer to a summer month than fall in the PNW. First half is solidly summer everywhere, as evidenced by this upcoming heatwave.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

Someone needs to pin this.

[BLI snowman 6818]

Pin. I just made a September related post in the August thread and feel rather embarrassed.

[Deweydog 14121]

Hi fall!

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

The soil moisture content in the south valley around Eugene needs to be near an all-time low. Three of the driest years on record now, its hard to even describe how dry and parched the landscape is down there. Has to make a difference with temp anomalies right now. 

[MossMan 10611]

Pin. I just made a September related post in the August thread and feel rather embarrassed.

And I responded to your post...You should feel even more embarrassed.

[TT-SEA 3764]

And I responded to your post...You should feel even more embarrassed.

 

 

And I responded to your post... it just gets worse.   

[BLI snowman 6818]

And I responded to your post...You should feel even more embarrassed.

 

It's monthly weather discussion anarchy!

 

Thanks Trump!

[BLI snowman 6818]

The soil moisture content in the south valley around Eugene needs to be near an all-time low. Three of the driest years on record now, its hard to even describe how dry and parched the landscape is down there. Has to make a difference with temp anomalies right now. 

 

It's been dry no doubt but I have questioned EUG's precip data for awhile. They seem to be a bit of an outlier. I'm wondering if they have relocated some equipment in the last decade.

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or1897

 

Cottage Grove is another long term station in the south valley and they show a near historically dry year in 2018, a slightly dry year in 2019, and a near average 2020 so far. And their numbers are consistently way ahead of EUG even though their historic averages are very similar.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5633]

It's been dry no doubt but I have questioned EUG's precip data for awhile. They seem to be a bit of an outlier. I'm wondering if they have relocated some equipment in the last decade.

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or1897

 

Cottage Grove is another long term station in the south valley and they show a near historically dry year in 2018, a slightly dry year in 2019, and a near average 2020 so far. And their numbers are consistently way ahead of EUG even though their historic averages are very similar.

 

Well the landscape certainly looks more parched.

[GobBluth 283]

some disagreement next week on how close the trough digs and limits the transport of the heat from the deserts up north.

Euro/EPS on its own now - still hard not to believe its the correct forecast.

[Phil 11798]

[TT-SEA 3764]

Continuing this discussion from the August thread....

 

 

Climo's a 8itch dude. We're probably not going to see 16 days in a row of 99th percentile ridging.

 

It's a sharp event centered around the 7th-9th and the ensembles have pretty consistently shown a crash between the 10th-13th. Whether it's as dramatic as the 12z shows with highs in the 50s remains to be seen, although it would fit the historic pattern after historic early month ridging (Septembers 1944 and 1988 both had rather chilly troughs mid month).

 

 

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS shows a weak break down by next Saturday but the trough splits on arrival.    Not too dramatic but cooler than what the EPS is showing.

 

[TT-SEA 3764]

12Z ECMWF shifted slightly west again... minor details but it keeps it more reasonable.   Only low 80s for the Seattle area northward all weekend per the ECMWF. 

[GobBluth 283]

don't look now but euro moving towards the gfs and gem.

 

correction - heat blast cancel but fire danger is going to be ugly.

[MossMan 10611]

12Z ECMWF shifted slightly west again... minor details but it keeps it more reasonable. Only low 80s for the Seattle area northward all weekend per the ECMWF.

So mostly 70’s at my place then.

[Kayla 3643]

Euro looks way better. Would be a ranging east wind though so hopefully no new fire starts.

[TT-SEA 3764]

So mostly 70’s at my place then.

 

Why can't you lament the unbearable, intolerable, hell on Earth heat like the rest of us?     Geez Randy.    You are going to have to suffer through temps in the 70s.   I can't imagine why your preferences are different.   

 

Here is Sunday...

 

[TT-SEA 3764]

12Z ECMWF is much hotter next week for western WA so Randy might get to 80 at some point!  

 

Here is day 9 (next Thursday)...

 

[TT-SEA 3764]

That is not much of a break down at day 10 either... with a weak trough sliding through BC. Similar feature to the GEFS but much warmer on the ECMWF.

 

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

70 and sunny at noon...excellent day excited to see the full moon tonight and do check out some of the other planets in the sky. Hoping that this early September heatwave isn’t too excessive and long lasting. I can’t imagine it’ll torch too much after the first 1/3 of the month as were really starting to have shorter days and longer nights.

[TT-SEA 3764]

75 and sunny here in north Idaho at noon and exactly the same at home.

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

This August was 0.9 degrees cooler than last August...66.3 last year vs 65.4 this year. Another interesting note...only 4 days 80+ in August this year which is the least amount of 80+ days I’ve had in the month of August. This should also set up September to have more 80+ days than the month of August which has never happened either.

[TT-SEA 3764]

FWIW... the 12Z EPS does not show any break down through day 15.

 

Here is the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

 

And day 15....

 

[Omegaraptor 2393]

[TT-SEA 3764]

Hope this pattern lasts until Christmas.

 

 

The exact same 500mb pattern would gradually become pretty murky and foggy and cold if it persisted through Christmas.   

 

It would be sunny and in the 50s at the passes though.   

[Omegaraptor 2393]

The exact same 500mb pattern would gradually become pretty murky and foggy and cold if it persisted through Christmas.   

 

It would be sunny and in the 50s at the passes though.   

Would be dry though.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

Euro is really struggling.

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

75 and sunny now...warmest day since 8/20 at this location.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Euro is really struggling.

EPS has been showing a heat wave starting about now for 2 weeks. It could not have been more consistent with the overall pattern. Just minor changes in the details.

 

I would not bet against the EPS right now.

[Phil 11798]

I want the EPS to be right. Please god let the EPS be right for once in my life.

[TT-SEA 3764]

 

I want the EPS to be right. Please god let the EPS be right for once in my life.

Stupid edit.

 

Especially from the person who was saying 2 weeks ago that the EPS was going to be wrong.

 

I would say the same thing if it was accurately consistent with cold and showing the cold continuing. I would not bet against it.

[Omegaraptor 2393]

 

I want the EPS to be right. Please god let the EPS be right for once in my life.

There is a historically long September heat wave forecast.

 

Can we please get even more heat?

[Deweydog 14121]

Stupid edit.

 

Especially from the person who was saying 2 weeks ago that the EPS was going to be wrong.

 

I would say the same thing if it was accurately consistent with cold and showing the cold continuing. I would not bet against it.

Ur giving him what he craves.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Ur giving him what he craves.

Good point.

[TT-SEA 3764]

There is a historically long September heat wave forecast.

 

Can we please get even more heat?

So bet against the EPS. Nature will do what you want.

[Deweydog 14121]

So bet against the EPS. Natire will do what you want.

Natire/EPS 2020!