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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS definitely showed a break down happening in long range... 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-2374400.png

A bit more extended there.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 52F (Oct 25)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 6 (Most recent: Oct 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

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14 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Jesse

No. I woke up to 37 downvotes on my posts going back several days. Someone else was on a tear this morning.

Seems to happen almost nightly. Good thing it doesn't matter at all!

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6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Fall is coming, but first dry, warmer, dry, warmer, dry very warm, dry dry, east wind, dry, very warm, dry, dry, east wind, dry, a slight bit cooler, dry.

 

12z GFS in 5 hours 23 minutes

12z ECMWF in 7 hours 40 minutes

Perfect time for a dry martini !

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14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

No. I woke up to 37 downvotes on my posts going back several days. Someone else was on a tear this morning.

Seems to happen almost nightly. Good thing it doesn't matter at all!

37 drunk Bokoblins hitting the downvote with Boko Clubs. Hopefully the clubs were on the "Your weapon is badly damaged" state when the weapons are about shot. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Seems like it slowly has been.

GFS has also been slowly upping the surface temps for Thursday. Now shows 88 here that day. Would be cool to just make it to 90. Hasn't happened that late since 10/1/88. Might make it fun four months down the road.

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS has also been slowly upping the surface temps for Thursday. Now shows 88 here that day. Would be cool to just make it to 90. Hasn't happened that late since 10/1/88. Might make it fun four months down the road.

Yeah, I've been thinking with a ridge of that amplitude this may be the year for a long overdue October 90.

What other years hit 90 in October aside from the three in the 1980s?

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5 minutes ago, Link said:

37 drunk Bokoblins hitting the downvote with Boko Clubs. Hopefully the clubs were on the "Your weapon is badly damaged" state when the weapons are about shot. 

 

 

That was probably it Kyle.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, I've been thinking with a ridge of that amplitude this may be the year for a long overdue October 90.

What other years hit 90 in October aside from the three in the 1980s?

1970 (also a 1st year Nina) and 1952 hit 90 in downtown Portland and 89 at PDX. 1936 also made a respectable push with a nasty 88 on 10/10.

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11 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I have been thinking, with a ridge of that amplitude, this may be the year for a long overdue October 90.

What other years hit 90 in October aside from the three in the 1980s?

EUG hit 92 on Oct 1, 1987

94F on Oct 2, 1980

92F on Oct 5, 1980

91F on Oct 10, 1934

 

Those are the only 4 instances of Eugene ever recording a high above 90 in Oct.

 

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 52F (Oct 25)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 6 (Most recent: Oct 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1970 (also a 1st year Nina) and 1952 hit 90 in downtown Portland and 89 at PDX. 1936 also made a respectable push with a nasty 88 on 10/10.

Other than 1952, all those other winters produced big time. 1970-71 is one of the most underrated winters IMO, some really nice events.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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0.11" so far this morning. Now entering a lull in the activity, but radar shows a big band of green heading in after that. Seems to be mostly a Whatcom/Lower Mainland sort of thing. I consider it compensation for missing out on most of the moisture in the earlier phases of this wet spell.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1970 (also a 1st year Nina) and 1952 hit 90 in downtown Portland and 89 at PDX. 1936 also made a respectable push with a nasty 88 on 10/10.

 

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EUG hit 92 on Oct 1, 1987

94F on Oct 2, 1980

92F on Oct 5, 1980

91F on Oct 10, 1934

 

Those are the only 4 instances of Eugene ever recording a high above 90 in Oct.

 

Good stuff, thank you.

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17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS has also been slowly upping the surface temps for Thursday. Now shows 88 here that day. Would be cool to just make it to 90. Hasn't happened that late since 10/1/88. Might make it fun four months down the road.

88/89 is another analog I’ve been intrigued by, in addition to 16/17.

IPWP+branch structure this year is downright classic for la niña. I have a hunch we’ll see some wave-2 strat action as well (not that it’s necessary in Niña/+QBO, but it was a feature in many of the good ones, 08/09 being the most prolific of them all).

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Quite a dynamic NPAC cycle coming up as well.

Big fat +PNA, followed by jet extension, then probably a rapid retraction/EAMT drawdown thereafter. All within the span of a 2-3 weeks. 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Other than 1952, all those other winters produced big time. 1970-71 is one of the most underrated winters IMO, some really nice events.

2019-20 was basically a modern version of 1952-53 so we should be safe for a bit.

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Just now, Phil said:

Quite a dynamic NPAC cycle coming up as well.

Big fat +PNA, followed by jet extension, then probably a rapid retraction/EAMT drawdown thereafter. All within the span of a 2-3 weeks. 

WUFBACDFBAWUBTYBPAHBOA?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Quite a dynamic NPAC cycle coming up as well.

Big fat +PNA, followed by jet extension, then probably a rapid retraction/EAMT drawdown thereafter. All within the span of a 2-3 weeks. 

What is EAMT?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

C’MON!!!

January 1937 was brutal out here. Average temp for the month was below zero with a -0.7F mean temp and it only got above freezing on one day with a high for the month of 33 degrees. 26 days were below zero, 9 of those days were below -20F.

The month ended up with a -26F departure which is absolutely incredible.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 22.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

2019-20 was basically a modern version of 1952-53 so we should be safe for a bit.

You guys should be fine.

I expect another blowtorch in my neck of the woods, though. They usually come in clusters of 2-3 here.

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Other than 1952, all those other winters produced big time. 1970-71 is one of the most underrated winters IMO, some really nice events.

Fantastic winter regionally. EUG had over a foot of snow between Jan 10-13.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 52F (Oct 25)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 6 (Most recent: Oct 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I don’t think anyone here has any idea what that means for our region.

Himalayas are a conduit for the exchange of angular momentum between the Earth and atmosphere. Same with the Andes  and Rockies to an extent, but the EA domain is the big kahuna esp given its more intimate relationship w/ the tropical forcing/IPWP system.

-MT = Transfer of AAM from the atmosphere to the earth. And vice versa for +MT.

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2019-20 was basically a modern version of 1952-53 so we should be safe for a bit.

What the **** was 2018-19?! That February kind of came out of nowhere. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Himalayas are a conduit for the exchange of angular momentum between the Earth and atmosphere. Same with the Andes  and Rockies to an extent.

-MT = Transfer of AAM from the atmosphere to the earth. And vice versa for +MT.

Oh nice. So either a ridge or a trough. Will it be raining?

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

You guys should be fine.

I expect another blowtorch in my neck of the woods, though. They usually come in clusters of 2-3 here.

Think the East Coast could do pretty well, actually. 2010-11 comes to mind, though I'm not sure you'll have as tanked an NAO.

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What the **** was 2018-19?! That February kind of came out of nowhere. 

Poor man's 1886-87. If you look at that winter it was actually a really similar progression. Putrid NDJ and a moderate Nino to boot. Followed by the GOAT February.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Poor man's 1886-87. If you look at that winter it was actually a really similar progression. Putrid NDJ and a moderate Nino to boot. Followed by the GOAT February.

That's what it made it such a fun year, of course.

“Well, I guess it’s going to be one of those unusual winters where Seattle sees absolutely no accumulating snow whatsoever. Suxxxx.”

February: “Hold my beer.”

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Oh nice. So either a ridge or a trough. Will it be raining?

+EAMT (IE the deposition of AAM to the atmosphere/+tendency) aids in the extension of the upper level jet, all else being equal. Vice versa for removal.

Gyrations in EAMT/AAM tendency via that source are often associated with wave breaking/pattern changes, what have you.

Though it more complex/state dependent w/ scale when the antecedent ENSO state or MJO are involved, depending on the reason for the EAMT-tapping pattern.

 

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32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Other than 1952, all those other winters produced big time. 1970-71 is one of the most underrated winters IMO, some really nice events.

Snowiest winter on record for YVR.  The airport had something crazy like 67”. 

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Wettest September here since 2013.  That one is out of reach. 

Same here. We had nearly 14” that month, remarkable given that was one of the driest years on record. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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