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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Snowiest winter on record for YVR.  The airport had something crazy like 67”. 

One of the snowiest up here too. Big time events in January, late February, and early March. 
 

All time March low here and at Salem too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

THIS IS A TEST. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE OR REPLY TO THIS POST, YOU WILL GET A WARM AND BORING WINTER.

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24 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Think the East Coast could do pretty well, actually. 2010-11 comes to mind, though I'm not sure you'll have as tanked an NAO.

Low expectations here, brother. At least in the snowfall department.

10/11 & 08/09 were cold, but the storm track screwed us. Similar story in 17/18. Typical La Niña.

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22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What the **** was 2018-19?! That February kind of came out of nowhere. 

Sudden stratospheric warming.

Big one, at that.

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

+EAMT (IE the deposition of AAM to the atmosphere/+tendency) aids in the extension of the upper level jet, all else being equal. Vice versa for removal.

Gyrations in EAMT/AAM tendency via that source are often associated with wave breaking/pattern changes, what have you.

Though it more complex/state dependent w/ scale when the antecedent ENSO state or MJO are involved, depending on the reason for the EAMT-tapping pattern.

 

Ok you win this round.

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Low expectations here, brother. At least in the snowfall department.

10/11 & 08/09 were cold, but the storm track screwed us. Similar story in 17/18. Typical La Niña.

1995-96 was also a Nina 😉

I doubt very much that the NE sees an end to end suckfest like last year. And I'd be willing to bet that there will be some extended periods of troughing focused on the region. Been a few years. Heavy dew.

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Some rain on day 9 per the 12Z ECMWF.

Of course 2 days ago that day was not within 240 hours so it hard to say the ECMWF is suddenly caving.    But the EPS is definitely trending that way as well in the long range.

So Phil... are you saying there will be a jet extension next week and then a retraction with another ridge after that? 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Scary looking pattern at day 10 of the Euro. Quite fitting for spooky 👻 season!

Absolutely horrific!  I was assuming it would not rain until December now.

Actually I just assume rain for the next few months.   Anything else is just some nice variety.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some rain on day 9 per the 12Z ECMWF.

Of course 2 days ago that day was not within 240 hours so it hard to say the ECMWF is suddenly caving.    But the EPS is definitely trending that way as well in the long range.

So Phil... are you saying there will be a jet extension next week and then a retraction with another ridge after that? 

Jet retraction/-EAMT could also end up building a GOA/offshore ridge, or a meridional pattern in general (during the transition period).

Many factors go into the wavenumber and position. The perspective here is on a larger scale. IE: Is it a progressive pattern with a strong upper level jet, or a meridional (wavy) one with a weak upper level jet.

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Re: our discussion earlier, perhaps this phase diagram illustration is useful. GWO is broader than MJO/convective elements alone.

image.png

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Just now, Phil said:

Re: our discussion earlier, perhaps this phase diagram illustration is useful.

image.png

I'll spin, Pat.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 52F (Oct 25)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Oct 26, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'll spin, Pat.

That chart answered all of my questions for good!   So clear now.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Jet retraction/-EAMT could also end up building a GOA/offshore ridge, or a meridional pattern in general (during the transition period).

Many factors go into the wavenumber and position. The perspective here is on a larger scale. IE: Is it a progressive pattern with a strong upper level jet, or a meridional (wavy) one with a weak upper level jet.

You seem Xtra cryptic today.

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1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Wettest September here since 2013.  That one is out of reach. 

It seems like it's been a bit more focused up there this year. I just looked at my records from last year and last September is running half an inch ahead of this one. Currently up to 2.05" on the month here with the rain this morning. It's interesting how dry East/Central Vancouver Island has been through this stretch, places like Nanaimo are even running behind Victoria on the month.

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12Z EPS is pretty tepid with any break down until the end of the run... but it gets there by day 15.

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-2417600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim... You are in big trouble again!! What happened to my dry weekend? Spent the day weedeating in massive downpours. 

Maybe try looking at a model or even your phone app or TV weather forecast for yourself for once.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Maybe try looking at a model or even your phone app for yourself for once.

Tim is my phone app and weather model all rolled into one! Unfortunately the Jesse app refuses to delete off of my Phone. 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim is my phone app and weather model all rolled into one! Unfortunately the Jesse app refuses to delete off of my Phone. 

You missed my edit. I included TV weather forecasts too! You seem to be all about those judging by the dozens of VHS 📼 recordings you’ve referenced over the years :D

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

You missed my edit. I included TV weather forecasts too! You seem to be all about those judging by the dozens of VHS 📼 recordings you’ve referenced over the years :D

I need to break those out again!!!! The glory days of January 1996, November 1996, December 1996, and December 1998 I still have coverage on!! 

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72/52 and currently 70F so a cloudy day but dry. Very pleasant.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 52F (Oct 25)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Oct 26, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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25 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Yeah Tim.  I went hiking today because you showed us charts that had NO rain today or tomorrow.

 

Encouraged my folks to have a YARD SALE and it's pouring on them.

 

Dude? WTF?!

Have to stay up to date!  Saturday looked somewhat wet for 2 or 3 days now.   Tomorrow is the pay off.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, puyallupjon said:

Yeah Tim.  I went hiking today because you showed us charts that had NO rain today or tomorrow.

Encouraged my folks to have a YARD SALE and it's pouring on them.

Dude? WTF?!

Excuse me? You do virtually everything in your power, short of washing your car, to make rain manifest today, then blame somebody else when the inevitable happens?

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Some nice open skies out there now.  Likely to see a low in the mid 40's tonight.  That and some Perry Mason reruns should make this a fine Saturday night.

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54 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

gonna go hiking again tomorrow so we'll see if if there truly is a payoff

The true payoff is not giving a sh*t and being capable of enjoying a day rain or shine.

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11 minutes ago, Acer said:

Some nice open skies out there now.  Likely to see a low in the mid 40's tonight.  That and some Perry Mason reruns should make this a fine Saturday night.

Aha!  There's a downvote.  Jesse has arrived!

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3 minutes ago, Acer said:

Aha!  There's a downvote.  Jesse has arrived!

Blaming anonymous downvotes on particular people because you're a paranoid boob, when we are in fact all getting and giving plenty of them, is certainly worthy of a downvote.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Blaming anonymous downvotes on particular people because you're a paranoid boob, when we are in fact all getting and giving plenty of them, is certainly worthy of a downvote.

Whose paranoid?  I've got Perry Mason, you've got policing the forum.  Keep that index finger nimble.

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A little rain around the 5/6th and then more ridging on the 18z.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

68/52 here today. Partly to mostly sunny with some widely scattered showers.

Could get fairly cool tonight with some clearing.

I just liked your post.  😇

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