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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

THIS IS A TEST. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE OR REPLY TO THIS POST, YOU WILL GET A WARM AND BORING WINTER.

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8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Triggered?

Seems like Jesse is triggered all the time.   Just say rain is annoying.  :)

I will just point out every time he complains like he does to everyone else.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seems like Jesse is triggered all the time.   Just say rain is annoying.  :)

I will just point out every time he complains like he does.  

You seem more trigger like more and more each day...  you come across as needing to be involved in every comment lately no matter the source, more than normal.  Everything ok?

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You seem more trigger like more and more each day...  you come across as needing to be involved in every comment lately no matter the source, more than normal.  Everything ok?

Everything is terrible.  Have you seen the forecast?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I bet Tim sits around just praying that Jesse replies to his post and when it finally happens he screams for his wife. “Honey, come in here! I’m about to get this mother******!” 

She slowly enters, trying to hide her tears. “Who is Jesse and why do you spend more time thinking about him than you do about me.” 
 

“You don’t understand. He likes rain.” 

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WTF is going on?  We are in a full blown Nina and yet the 500mb pattern over the NE Pacific and the PNW looks full blown Nino.  I still think the hammer will drop at some point, but the last couple of model runs are hideous.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

I bet Tim sits around just praying that Jesse replies to his post and when it finally happens he screams for his wife. “Honey, come in here! I’m about to get this mother******!” 

She slowly enters, trying to hide her tears. “Who is Jesse and why do you spend more time thinking about him than you do about me.” 
 

“You don’t understand. He likes rain.” 

This is gold!!

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

This is gold!!

I imagine Jesse doing the exact same thing.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I bet Tim sits around just praying that Jesse replies to his post and when it finally happens he screams for his wife. “Honey, come in here! I’m about to get this mother******!” 

She slowly enters, trying to hide her tears. “Who is Jesse and why do you spend more time thinking about him than you do about me.” 
 

“You don’t understand. He likes rain.” 

😂👍🏿

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF is going on?  We are in a full blown Nina and yet the 500mb pattern over the NE Pacific and the PNW looks full blown Nino.  I still think the hammer will drop at some point, but the last couple of model runs are hideous.

Weard yier.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF is going on?  We are in a full blown Nina and yet the 500mb pattern over the NE Pacific and the PNW looks full blown Nino.  I still think the hammer will drop at some point, but the last couple of model runs are hideous.

So far it’s reminded me a lot of the fall of 2014, which was of course a Niño year.

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF is going on?  We are in a full blown Nina and yet the 500mb pattern over the NE Pacific and the PNW looks full blown Nino.  I still think the hammer will drop at some point, but the last couple of model runs are hideous.

Late start like you said right?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF is going on?  We are in a full blown Nina and yet the 500mb pattern over the NE Pacific and the PNW looks full blown Nino.  I still think the hammer will drop at some point, but the last couple of model runs are hideous.

Resembles 2010/11 a bit. Switch flipped quickly in November IIRC.

That was another 1st year moderate/strong niña with +QBO/weak solar and a consolidated IPWP.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Resembles 2010/11 a bit. Switch flipped quickly in November IIRC.

That was another 1st year moderate/strong niña with +QBO/weak solar and a consolidated IPWP.

Huge snowstorm and arctic air here in late November 2010.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Resembles 2010/11 a bit. Switch flipped quickly in November IIRC.

That was another 1st year moderate/strong niña with +QBO/weak solar and a consolidated IPWP.

Yeah....it will probably clobber us when it changes.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Lol

There is not one rain complaint post from anyone that does not stick in his craw and he eventually has to post mockingly about it.    It must drive him crazy.   😄

Obviously its fair to point out that he complains too.  

 

 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....it will probably clobber us when it changes.

Maybe February... 1989!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Resembles 2010/11 a bit. Switch flipped quickly in November IIRC.

That was another 1st year moderate/strong niña with +QBO/weak solar and a consolidated IPWP.

Have to dig back farther than 2010 to find an analog for the kind of extended late season ridging we are about to see. Probably late 1980s/early 1990s

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There is not one rain complaint post from anyone that does not stick in his craw and he eventually has to post mockingly about it.    It must drive him crazy.   😄

 

 

 

You definitely have more of an issue with what others say than you want us to believe lately.   Way to easy to see that.

Your game is off.

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Have to dig back farther than 2010 to find an analog for the kind of extended late season ridging we are about to see. Probably late 1980s/early 1990s

Sep/Oct 1988 fits the bill. Similar pattern to 2010 at that time. Both were niñas, and both featured significant winter cold waves with extreme blocking.

I doubt 2020 will go this extreme, but..

image.png

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Oct 1988 fits the bill.

I doubt 2020 will go this extreme, but..

image.png

That was one that came to mind. From a raw pattern standpoint 1987 and 1991 are probably better matches, but those were both El Niño’s...

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

That was one that came to mind. From a raw pattern standpoint 1987 and 1991 may be better marches, but those were both El Niño’s...

We’re not following either of those this winter.

Last winter was basically a reincarnation of 1991/92...huge El Niño torchfest coast to coast. Not much similarity now with cold ENSO clearly controlling the tropical forcing on the low pass.

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11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You definitely have more of an issue with what others say than you want us to believe.   Way to easy to see that.

 

Yeah... no.  

Meaningless discussion as usual.    Just point out if I mock someone for their weather preferences and I will stop immediately.   I made an effort long ago to stop that crap.    I am just pointing out that he complains all the time which is ironic.  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Resembles 2010/11 a bit. Switch flipped quickly in November IIRC.

That was another 1st year moderate/strong niña with +QBO/weak solar and a consolidated IPWP.

Hopefully something a bit better than that. Was a complete dud down this way.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 57F (Oct 22)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 23)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 23, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So Phil, do you think the ridge sits on us most of the month or will we flip to more active at some point. October 2010 got pretty active in the second half.

More active during the second half, simply due to changing seasonal wave dynamics under EHEM/Maritime Continent uplift. Still could be mild/ridgy overall, but there should be some progression and/or a decrease in the wavenumber.

Could certainly follow the 2010 script. For whatever it’s worth, the warm season tropical circulation was most analogous to 2010 and 1988, both of which were late bloomers as far as autumn cold/storminess out there, and both went big in February too. Both +QBO/first year niñas, too.

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So Phil, do you think the ridge sits on us most of the month or will we flip to more active at some point. October 2010 got pretty active in the second half.

If you’d take a few minutes a day to monitor stork migration in the mountains of Asia you’d already know a jet expression is well on its way.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

If you’d take a few minutes a day to monitor stork migration in the mountains of Asia you’d already know a jet expression is well on its way.

I think they are only allowed to deliver baby boys to China anymore. Must have some sort of downstream effect...

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

More active during the second half, simply due to changing seasonal wave dynamics under EHEM/Maritime Continent uplift. Still could be mild/ridgy overall, but there should be some progression and/or a decrease in the wavenumber.

Could certainly follow the 2010 script. For whatever it’s worth, the warm season tropical circulation was most analogous to 2010 and 1988, both of which were late bloomers as far as autumn cold/storminess out there, and both went big in February too. Both +QBO/first year niñas, too.

1988 and 2010 are two very sexy analogs

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Looks like our "best" day in 2010-11 was On Jan 11, 2011 with a 33/29 day. Not a single sub-freezing high and no snow. I have it ranked as #23 out of the 31 winters for the south valley since I moved to Oregon.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 57F (Oct 22)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 23)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 23, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like our "best" day in 2010-11 was On Jan 11, 2011 with a 33/29 day. Not a single sub-freezing high and no snow. I have it ranked as #23 out of the 31 winters for the south valley since I moved to Oregon.

Considering we let’s torched through early November that year I would have expected a stout arctic hammering from Veterans Day onward. 🤔 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Considering we let’s torched through early November that year I would have expected a stout arctic hammering from Veterans Day onward. 🤔 

Weren’t there two arctic blasts that winter? I remember one in November and another in February, followed by a very cold spring out there.

D*mn I can’t believe it’s been a decade since that winter. Time flies.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Weren’t there two arctic blasts that winter? I remember one in November and another in February, followed by a very cold spring out there.

D*mn I can’t believe it’s been a decade since that winter. Time flies.

Hammer didn’t quite swing to Eugene. :(

The hammer swinger’s arm must have also gotten tired after nailing Puget sound in late November, since December through mid February (heart of winter) were quite mild that year.

 

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Yup, we got the Dolt Dickbag that year.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 57F (Oct 22)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 23)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 23, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Hammer didn’t quite swing to Eugene. :(

The hammer swinger’s arm must have also gotten tired after nailing Puget sound in late November, since December through mid February (heart of winter) were quite mild that year.

 

I remember that winter for the last second, soul crushing Boxing Day screwjob. Can still feel the rug burn today.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I remember that winter for the last second, soul crushing Boxing Day screwjob. Can still feel the rug burn today.

At least there’s a threat of a White Christmas up that way. We get one like once every 40 years. One of the reasons I’ve been eager to move to Indiana. Experiencing actual seasons.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 57F (Oct 22)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 23)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 23, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

At least there’s a threat of a White Christmas up that way. We get one like once every 40 years. One of the reasons I’ve been eager to move to Indiana. Experiencing actual seasons.

 

0c6.jpeg

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I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

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00Z EPS continued the theme of what looks like a wet pattern in the 10-15 day period...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-2547200 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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