seattleweatherguy 483 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: This is the composite average of 12 members, so I'd expect that it's just the product of a wide variation in temps. The 500mb height averages show a stronger and more appropriate signal. More encouraging to me is the building arctic/subarctic cold pool being advertised by all of our seasonal models. Get some favorable blocking and.... anything historic? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2007 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 26 minutes ago, iFred said: If you share any more long range forecast products with the public and not a cleared, educated, and professional audience, I will report you to Courtney and get you barred from Sandpoint. After the snow map fiasco of 2019, I can't have anymore long rang prognostications. Take it up with Reid, please! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 11798 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: In that case..winter cancel. 1 1 Quote Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
Front Ranger 7606 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Looks like SEA will end up around +4.2 for September... and just about 1 inch above normal on rainfall. WFO SEA +4.2 BLI +4.7 OLM +3.7 UIL +5.0 The SEA UHI effect did not really exist this month with WFO SEA being the same and even warmer at BLI and UIL. UHI debunked! Smoke might have had something to do with that. 1 Quote Low. Solar. Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: UHI debunked! Smoke might have had something to do with that. Could have been related to smoke. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3764 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 And the water year ends tonight... SEA finishes at +2.36 for the last year. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10611 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 Surprised nobody has started an October thread yet! In just a few weeks now we will be waiting anxiously for each model run for any signs of a November 1985 redux! Oh and putting up the Christmas lights!! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
dolt 1365 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, MossMan said: Surprised nobody has started an October thread yet! In just a few weeks now we will be waiting anxiously for each model run for any signs of a November 1985 redux! Oh and putting up the Christmas lights!! Because premature creation of such threads have caused massive carnage in the past. I think I saw one where Timmy_Supercell created one several hours early and almost all the snow that month was diverted to the mountain west. It's best to be cautious in these uncertain times. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 Tonight's 00z ECMWF delays the pattern change and rainfall until NEXT Saturday now. 00z GEFS disagrees. 00z ECMWF Day 6-10 500mb Height Anomaly 00z GFS Ensembles 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
AbbyJr 492 Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 On 9/26/2020 at 10:22 AM, Phil said: 88/89 is another analog I’ve been intrigued by, in addition to 16/17. IPWP+branch structure this year is downright classic for la niña. I have a hunch we’ll see some wave-2 strat action as well (not that it’s necessary in Niña/+QBO, but it was a feature in many of the good ones, 08/09 being the most prolific of them all). I would not complain about an 08/09 redux in the PNW. That winter was epic. But I don't want to get my hopes up too much. I do have a feeling this winter will be memorable for the PNW though... I hope my gut is not lying. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Link 4 Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 What's the earliest frost anyone's ever had west of the Cascades AND what conditions would enable this? Is it even possible to recreate this in our much warmer world? 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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