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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is the composite average of 12 members, so I'd expect that it's just the product of a wide variation in temps. The 500mb height averages show a stronger and more appropriate signal. More encouraging to me is the building arctic/subarctic cold pool being advertised by all of our seasonal models. Get some favorable blocking and....¬†ūüė∂

anything historic?

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

THIS IS A TEST. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE OR REPLY TO THIS POST, YOU WILL GET A WARM AND BORING WINTER.

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26 minutes ago, iFred said:

If you share any more long range forecast products with the public and not a cleared, educated, and professional audience, I will report you to Courtney and get you barred from Sandpoint. After the snow map fiasco of 2019, I can't have anymore long rang prognostications. 

Take it up with Reid, please!

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57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like SEA will end up around +4.2 for September... and just about 1 inch above normal on rainfall.

WFO SEA  +4.2

BLI +4.7

OLM +3.7

UIL +5.0

The SEA UHI effect did not really exist this month with WFO SEA being the same and even warmer at BLI and UIL.

UHI debunked!

Smoke might have had something to do with that.

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Low. Solar.

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

UHI debunked!

Smoke might have had something to do with that.

Could have been related to smoke. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Surprised nobody has started an October thread yet! In just a few weeks now we will be waiting anxiously for each model run for any signs of a November 1985 redux! Oh and putting up the Christmas lights!! 

Because premature creation of such threads have caused massive carnage in the past. I think I saw one where Timmy_Supercell created one several hours early and almost all the snow that month was diverted to the mountain west. It's best to be cautious in these uncertain times.

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On 9/26/2020 at 10:22 AM, Phil said:

88/89 is another analog I’ve been intrigued by, in addition to 16/17.

IPWP+branch structure this year is downright classic for la ni√Īa. I have a hunch we‚Äôll see some wave-2 strat action as well (not that it‚Äôs necessary in Ni√Īa/+QBO, but it was a feature¬†in many of the good ones,¬†08/09 being the most prolific of them all).

I would not complain about an 08/09 redux in the PNW. That winter was epic. But I don't want to get my hopes up too much. I do have a feeling this winter will be memorable for the PNW though... I hope my gut is not lying.

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