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September 2020 WxObs & Discussion


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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

THIS IS A TEST. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE OR REPLY TO THIS POST, YOU WILL GET A WARM AND BORING WINTER.

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Thanks! Go Hawks! Currently 24-24 early in the 3rd quarter, Tim is not happy with how the first half went.

 

 

Now I am mad all over again!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Now I am mad all over again!  

 

Just watched the highlights of that game... that first half was pretty miserable but they started the come back before half time.    And the missed field goal at the end of regulation!   Arrrgghhhh.    

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Just concentrate on the EPS and you'll be ok.

At this point... the Seahawks are the luckiest 7-2 team ever. They will never get to the Super Bowl with this team!

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Not too different for Seattle on Monday (low 80s)... but much cooler for Oregon.

 

And the difference for Kayla on Labor Day is huge. The 00Z ECMWF last night showed low to mid 80s there and the new 00Z ECMWF shows it struggling to get to 40 with snow during the day.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No big changes for the Seattle area on this run. Just a long stretch of 80-85 degree days. Probably lower dewpoints and more east wind though. But its a very different run to the east and the south.

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The ECMWF suite of models is really jumping on the idea of a cool continental air mass brushing the NW this weekend.  Nice turn of events if it happens.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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A little east wind over PDX, too— wish it were cooler as that doesn’t bode well for fire weather.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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It may have been different elsewhere but pretty nice that I went some 25-ish days with clear air in August.

 

And ended the month with 4 t'storm days. Not bad.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Not too different for Seattle on Monday (low 80s)... but much cooler for Oregon.

 

And the difference for Kayla on Labor Day is huge. The 00Z ECMWF last night showed low to mid 80s there and the new 00Z ECMWF shows it struggling to get to 40 with snow during the day.

 

Quite the flip on the 00z. Would also be near 90 degrees here on Saturday with snow coming down on Monday. GFS is definitely not on board so we'll see.

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 138.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 20.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 12

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Euro run really doesn’t look hot for western Washington...mid 80s on 2 different days maybe but that’s about it mostly upper 70s and low 80s. There is one day at the end of the run where it hits 90 here but that’s 9 days out I’m pretty doubtful we get that hot.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-80

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12z gfs sticking with the hot weekend but on board with the retrogression, though not as aggressive as the euro or canadian. Looks like barring a rebuilding ridge once the great basin trough passes we've missed our chance for triple digits.

 

Still pretty amazing that on this date in 1988, PDX hit 105.

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Low. Solar.

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Euro run really doesn’t look hot for western Washington...mid 80s on 2 different days maybe but that’s about it mostly upper 70s and low 80s. There is one day at the end of the run where it hits 90 here but that’s 9 days out I’m pretty doubtful we get that hot.

Darn. Well it was still a good season. Hopefully it will still be somewhat warm in Eastern Washington later next week, then it will be time to winterize the water toys and get the generator ready for the massive wind and snowstorms coming!
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Darn. Well it was still a good season. Hopefully it will still be somewhat warm in Eastern Washington later next week, then it will be time to winterize the water toys and get the generator ready for the massive wind and snowstorms coming!

 

 

It will be very warm over there next week.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Darn. Well it was still a good season. Hopefully it will still be somewhat warm in Eastern Washington later next week, then it will be time to winterize the water toys and get the generator ready for the massive wind and snowstorms coming!

Summer is definitely not over in eastern WA will still be hot there. It’ll still be fairly warm over on this side of the mountains but I don’t think we will see several 90+ days...especially from the Tacoma/Olympia area north.
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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-80

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Sunny and hot here in the SLE. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Forget digging to the east. There's no heat over the northwest except in Brookings.

ecmwf_T850_nwus_7.png

 

 

Looks like a spectacular Labor Day here while its snowing in Bozeman.  :)

 

Accounting for the ECMWF cool bias... this is low 80s for the Seattle area which ironically is about the same as it was showing on the runs that had a hot air mass over us.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m-f-max

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The fact that the coolest summer in eight years was still above average there kind of says it all, Sir Brrrrrs A lot.

Progress is progress! I like the odds out there, especially with the solar cycle/IPWP response stacking the deck in favor of a multiyear niña and PMM/PDO flip to negative through the early 2020s.

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