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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

Power went out around 8pm last night. The wind was insane. Sheriff came at 6am and said go now. We are safe, we probably having nothing left but the clothes on our backs. Were able to save to dogs and

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:


Sort of weird since I remember the heavy smoke setup in the wake of the Eagle Creek burn being somewhat warm and muggy. Not as warm as it would have been without smoke, but still, not cold either.

I wonder if the very low dewpoints going into this episode have played a role.

I think it could be the cold coastal SSTs.  The latest maps show a strip of pretty cold water right along the coast.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it could be the cold coastal SSTs.  The latest maps show a strip of pretty cold water right along the coast.

That would definitely help work towards maintaining relatively low atmospheric water content despite being in a very inverted setup. Which of course allows for better radiational cooling at night, with the smoke layer prohibiting much in the way of diurnal recovery. 

I recall things being pretty soupy in the Eagle Creek smoke layer. A more humid airmass got trapped at the surface that time around, which mitigated the surface cooling effects.

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:


Sort of weird since I remember the heavy smoke setup in the wake of the Eagle Creek burn being somewhat warm and muggy. Not as warm as it would have been without smoke, but still, not cold either.

I wonder if the very low dewpoints going into this episode have played a role.

Maybe. The low DP's definitely help with the radiational cooling overnight. 

 

I am not sure how bad the smoke got from the Eagle Creek fire in your area, but at least for Salem/Eugene it is MUCH MUCH thicker and consistent this time around then really anything I have ever seen. 

It definitely filtered the sun, but it still seemed like daytime during the middle of the day. Down here it has been a constant twilight since Tuesday.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:


Sort of weird since I remember the heavy smoke setup in the wake of the Eagle Creek burn being somewhat warm and muggy. Not as warm as it would have been without smoke, but still, not cold either.

I wonder if the very low dewpoints going into this episode have played a role.

That was quite a different setup.  Hot ridge with a traditional thermal trough as opposed to incredibly deep and widespread dry/cool advection.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

That was quite a different setup.  Hot ridge with a traditional thermal trough as opposed to incredibly deep and widespread dry/cool advection.

So pretty much yeah it’s the lower dewpoints. Although I guess saying it this way made it sound more like you were schooling me ;)

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The smoke in the house is almost as bad as outside now. Man this sucks. My headaches are getting worse and with this piece of metal on my head it's feeling weird.

Got down to 46F currently 57F with heavy smoke, & visibility is back down to shitt at about 1 mile or so...AQI is bouncing between 350 and 400 sometimes worse since Monday into Tuesday.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 52F (Oct 25)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Oct 26, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So pretty much yeah it’s the lower dewpoints. Although I guess saying it this way made it sound more like you were schooling me ;)

You said it was weird.  Even though both were smoky, the low and mid level dynamics were quite a bit different. 
 

 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

You said it was weird.  Even though both were smoky, the low and mid level dynamics were quite a bit different. 
 

 


I think that’s been covered pretty well at this point. Just because something’s weird doesn’t mean it defies explanation.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-0624800.png

Euro better not be teasing that would be cruel. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-35

Coldest high-46

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-3.09”

Cold season rainfall-3.09”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Smells bad outside...smoke is progressively getting worse. Only 64 degrees outside though! 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-35

Coldest high-46

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-3.09”

Cold season rainfall-3.09”

Snowfall-0.0”

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:


I think that’s been covered pretty well at this point. Just because something’s weird doesn’t mean it defies explanation.

Also doesn’t mean an explanation is a declaration of a forum war.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is a very wet run...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-0624800.png

Lady Gaga & Ariana Grande's "Rain On Me" Instagram filter is...unusual

Never thought I'd be identifying so heavily with a modern top 40 track but here we are...

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 52F (Oct 25)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Oct 26, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Smells bad outside...smoke is progressively getting worse. Only 64 degrees outside though! 

74 and sunny here... sky is still blue but the Cascades are disappearing behind a white haze now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Also doesn’t mean an explanation is a declaration of a forum war.

I thought it was turning into a fairly enlightening discussion. One point I found especially interesting is the role cooler SSTs could be playing in not juicing up the low levels as much as we might have seen otherwise with the marine push.

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29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe. The low DP's definitely help with the radiational cooling overnight. 

 

I am not sure how bad the smoke got from the Eagle Creek fire in your area, but at least for Salem/Eugene it is MUCH MUCH thicker and consistent this time around then really anything I have ever seen. 

It definitely filtered the sun, but it still seemed like daytime during the middle of the day. Down here it has been a constant twilight since Tuesday.

The smoke itself has definitely been thicker here for this go around too. Although we are also seeing a lot less in the way of ash fall, but I think that had more to do with the sheer downwind proximity of the fire in 2017.

The volume of forest burned is just so much greater this time. Probably by at least an order of magnitude. So there is simply a lot more smoke to go around. Even though it occurred in a very popular and visible area, that fire was only 47,000 acres. As opposed to the hundreds of thousands that have burned in western Oregon this week.

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2 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

The smoke in the valley today is really thick.

Hope some rain rolls through next week to wash things down a bit.

Then summer can resume.

 

It will resume in 2021 for sure. 

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I thought it was turning into a fairly enlightening discussion. One point I found especially interesting is the role cooler SSTs could be playing in not juicing up the low levels as much as we might have seen otherwise with the marine push.

Given the fact the marine layer is extremely shallow at the moment I don’t think SST’s would have a chance to be much of a factor.  In fact, the inland inversions are probably doing more to inhibit its progress inland.  
 

The most interesting thing to me is how effectively the smoke can reduce solar radiation but doesn’t seem to inhibit radiational cooling.  First noticed this back in 2001 living up in God’s country.  We were stuck in the smoke in Pateros with highs around 80 while Omak was 100-105.  Didn’t inhibit nighttime recoveries at all though.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Given the fact the marine layer is extremely shallow at the moment I don’t think SST’s would have a chance to be much of a factor.  In fact, the inland inversions are probably doing more to inhibit its progress inland.  
 

The most interesting thing to me is how effectively the smoke can reduce solar radiation but doesn’t seem to inhibit radiational cooling.  First noticed this back in 2001 living up in God’s country.  We were stuck in the smoke in Pateros with highs around 80 while Omak was 100-105.  Didn’t inhibit nighttime recoveries at all though.

I’m going to hope for more smoke with this new information. Just let it swirl around the PNW and we should be cold enough for snow by Halloween! 
 

#iceageiscoming 

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The Euro doesn't look too bad at all.  We eventually go into an open trough situation.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I’m going to hope for more smoke with this new information. Just let it swirl around the PNW and we should be cold enough for snow by Halloween! 
 

#iceageiscoming 

Gonna be some chilly virtual trick or treaters out there!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Looks like SEA is about to go purple.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Burgerville shutting down all its locations due to the smoke.

It appears Mother Nature has showed up the protesters / rioters now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Only 61 at HIO. I would be out enjoying the cool air if not for the smoke.

Yeah, of course the first pleasantly cool day of the fall has to be caused by an oppressive smoke layer.

Thanks 2020!!

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43 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

The smoke in the valley today is really thick.

Hope some rain rolls through next week to wash things down a bit.

Then summer can resume.

 

 

12Z EPS is on board with your plan...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-1121600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like they moved the Level 3 evacuation line back a little further. We are still a couple miles inside it, but maybe by the end of the weekend we can get in and check on things. 

So glad to hear this Andrew.

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40 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Burgerville shutting down all its locations due to the smoke.

Does this also mean your naked badminton game will also be canceled later today? 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-35

Coldest high-46

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-3.09”

Cold season rainfall-3.09”

Snowfall-0.0”

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Smoke has settled in.

 

Yeah it’s pretty nasty. It’s weird because it also feels chilly outside. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-35

Coldest high-46

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-3.09”

Cold season rainfall-3.09”

Snowfall-0.0”

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Does this also mean your naked badminton game will also be canceled later today? 

Yes, but I think it’s more related to shrinkage concerns.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah it’s pretty nasty. It’s weird because it also feels chilly outside. 

SEA is gonna be running a -15F compared to yesterday. Look like the worst is yet to come.

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I think we can all be happy and thankful that nature delivered a way to knock down the monthly averages.   

In the end... its the monthly departures that will be remembered and cherished when thinking back on September 2020.    That is what is really important right Jim?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think we can all be happy and thankful that nature delivered a way to knock down the monthly averages.   

In the end... its the monthly departures that will be remembered and cherished when thinking back on September 2020.    That is what is really important right Jim?

I used the down arrow on this one BTW.

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