September 2020 WxObs & Discussion

[Jesse 9232]

10 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Looks like about half human caused.  Who are you trying to defend ?

Antifa obviously.

Seems to be a lot of misconception going around about the source of the fires, that's all. Dolt said "pretty much all the fires in Oregon were human caused" when in fact the majority were either caused by lightning or downed power lines.

[GobBluth 283]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Antifa obviously.

Seems to be a lot of misconception going around about the source of the fires, that's all. Dolt said "pretty much all the fires in Oregon were human caused" when in fact the majority were either caused by lightning or downed power lines.

Q

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Antifa obviously.

Seems to be a lot of misconception going around about the source of the fires, that's all. Dolt said "pretty much all the fires in Oregon were human caused" when in fact the majority were either caused by lightning or downed power lines.

It seems a lot of people consider downed powerlines to be "human caused," due to the fact power lines do not occur naturally... 

[Jesse 9232]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It seems a lot of people consider downed powerlines to be "human caused," due to the fact power lines do not occur naturally... 

Yeah but like I said earlier there is an important distinction between indirect and direct cause. I think most people associate the phrase "human caused" with more direct causes. Andrew.

[Jesse 9232]

12z GFS looks about the same as the last few runs for precip Thursday into Friday. At least we aren't seeing a gradual pullback...yet.

[FroYoBro 2690]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Looking at all the rain moving up the coast and inland last night I was rather surprised to see that we got completely shut out, and it looked like it was a good soaker.....not that we need the rain anywhere nearly as bad as Oregon, but I was really looking forward to listening to the rain fall and try to salvage what has been a horrible 24 hours...found out very dear friend has pancreatic cancer that has already spread to his liver, and I found out my job of 17 years is going away with the plant I work at shutting down.  I keep hoping that someone will pinch me and I will wake up from this nightmare that is 2020.

Wow, that sucks. Hang in there buddy. I’m having a shitty year as well. 2020 really does suck. 

[TT-SEA 4169]

You can see the marine layer through the smoke...

 

[FroYoBro 2690]

It is smokier today compared to yesterday in my area. Still can definitely smell it in the air. Gross. 

[Jesse 9232]

7 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

It is smokier today compared to yesterday in my area. Still can definitely smell it in the air. Gross. 

Last night’s system tried to clean things up but just didn’t make enough headway inland. Now that it’s out of the picture the smoke has filled back in.

Unfortunately more subsidence and warming temps aloft should help hold things in place today.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

Yeah 2020 can **** off. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

40 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah but like I said earlier there is an important distinction between indirect and direct cause. I think most people associate the phrase "human caused" with more direct causes. Andrew.

 

I think you associate the phrase with direct causes. You are kind of splitting hairs. And leaving the power on during a major windstorm in a parched dry canyon could be considered human negligence. 

[Jesse 9232]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

I think you associate the phrase with direct causes. You are kind of splitting hairs. And leaving the power on during a major windstorm in a parched dry canyon could be considered human negligence. 

Yes we are definitely splitting hairs at this point.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

Just now, Jesse said:

Yes we are definitely splitting hairs here.

Yeah, I wrote that response and then immediately wondered why I perpetuated a discussion I really do not care about. I am not Tim or Jared. I do not always need to be right. 

[Jesse 9232]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I wrote that response and then immediately wondered why I perpetuated a discussion I really do not care about. I am not Tim or Jared. I do not always need to be right. 

Me beigher.

I thought the commentary you made the other day about the tough choices the PUD had about leaving lines on was pretty spot on. 

[Jesse 9232]

Really nice 12Z GFS run. Good mix of active and pleasant days, decent rainfall, and good conditions for keeping smoke at bay.

The system at the end of the run could bring the first snow of the season down to the higher passes. I know it's clown range but that's the first time anything like that has shown up this fall. Always fun to see.

[TT-SEA 4169]

Nina looking quite healthy now (top image)... closest recent match is 2017 (bottom image).

 

[GobBluth 283]

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

12z GFS looks about the same as the last few runs for precip Thursday into Friday. At least we aren't seeing a gradual pullback...yet.

It's pulled back a little on next weeks storm.

[Jesse 9232]

2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

It's pulled back a little on next weeks storm.

That’s so far out small changes don’t really matter at this point .

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

Cannot remember if I posted this on here yesterday.  It appears the Olallie Lake scenic area completely burned. However, it does appear the rustic resort and cabins were saved. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

My old avatar on here with the dog was taken in August 2012 at Olallie lake. 

[TT-SEA 4169]

12Z ECMWF for overnight on Thursday into Friday morning...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for overnight on Thursday into Friday morning...

 

Manna from heaven. 

[PDXWISCO 22]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for overnight on Thursday into Friday morning...

 

Here's to having this verify!! 

[Deweydog 14228]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for overnight on Thursday into Friday morning...

 

Looks good

[Omegaraptor 2439]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for overnight on Thursday into Friday morning...

 

C’MON!!! Washington County!

[Front Ranger 7635]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I wrote that response and then immediately wondered why I perpetuated a discussion I really do not care about. I am not Tim or Jared. I do not always need to be right. 

You are certainly not right in equating me with Tim. 

[Front Ranger 7635]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nina looking quite healthy now (top image)... closest recent match is 2017 (bottom image).

 

Much more of a -PDO look this time around...

[TigerWoodsLibido 5753]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for overnight on Thursday into Friday morning...

 

Willamette Valley Special?

[Rubus Leucodermis 1346]

2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Yeah so most not directly human caused. Assuming whatever source you used is valid.

I counted 2 lightning caused, 3 human caused, and 3 of as of yet undetermined cause.

[Rubus Leucodermis 1346]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It seems a lot of people consider downed powerlines to be "human caused," due to the fact power lines do not occur naturally... 

I do, even though it is for the most part not as direct a cause as, say, arson or an illegal campfire.

[TT-SEA 4169]

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You are certainly not right in equating me with Tim. 

You do find creative ways to prove you are right and will argue details forever.    Own it.  

[High Desert Mat? 469]

Can someone tell me how to get to where I left off reading instead of every time I have to go back and thumb through the pages? Since the new upgrade it’s been doing that to me. Thanks!!

[TigerWoodsLibido 5753]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You do find creative ways to prove you are right and will argue details forever.    Own it.  

Here we go...he's taken the bait.

[TT-SEA 4169]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Can someone tell me how to get to where I left off reading instead of every time I have to go back and thumb through the pages? Since the new upgrade it’s been doing that to me. Thanks!!

I am wondering the same thing.

[TT-SEA 4169]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Here we go...he's taken the bait.

And my post implies that I do the same thing.    

[TigerWoodsLibido 5753]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And my post implies that I do the same thing.    

Tim's Ladder

[TT-SEA 4169]

Big shift east next week on the 12Z ECMWF. 

[TT-SEA 4169]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Tim's Ladder

[GobBluth 283]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big shift east next week on the 12Z ECMWF. 

Jet going into California seems a little off for September

 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5753]

1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

Jet going into California seems a little off for September

 

Hopefully it stays suppressed through March.

[TT-SEA 4169]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hopefully it stays suppressed through March.

I second this motion.  

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

To: Tim and Jared. I was mostly teasing there.

 

I mean it is true, but I like you both. 

[TT-SEA 4169]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

To: Tim and Jared. I was mostly teasing there.

 

I mean it is true, but I like you both. 

Its funny because its true!  

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

Tim can you post the map showing precip totals now through Saturday? 

[Front Ranger 7635]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You do find creative ways to prove you are right and will argue details forever.    Own it.  

I think there are many more recent examples of you having lengthy arguments on here.

You're thinking of the Jared from years ago, as was Andrew. 

 

[TT-SEA 4169]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim can you post the map showing precip totals now through Saturday? 

Here you go...

 

[SnowHawks 29]

Is a -PDO with a LA Nina good or bad?

[Front Ranger 7635]

27 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Can someone tell me how to get to where I left off reading instead of every time I have to go back and thumb through the pages? Since the new upgrade it’s been doing that to me. Thanks!!

I mentioned this issue a few days ago and it seemed some people were experiencing it and some not.

Someone gave a "fix" but it didn't work for me.

 

[dolt 1365]

3 hours ago, Jesse said:

Antifa obviously.

Seems to be a lot of misconception going around about the source of the fires, that's all. Dolt said "pretty much all the fires in Oregon were human caused" when in fact the majority were either caused by lightning or downed power lines.

Power lines were installed by humans. They probably should have been powered down since a once in 50 year storm was brewing. I haven't read anywhere that confirmed that a single Oregon fire was caused by lightning this go around.

[TT-SEA 4169]

Today is worse than yesterday here in terms of smoke... but much better than Saturday and Monday.   Sun is shining and it's not a red ball... visibility is not good but I can see the faint outline of some mountains in the distance.