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This seems extreme...

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

THIS IS A TEST. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE OR REPLY TO THIS POST, YOU WILL GET A WARM AND BORING WINTER.

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Flash flood extreme?

Won't happen extreme. I guess it has just been a few months since we saw appreciable rainfall, so the concept seems a bit foreign. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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34 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Up to 70 here, so warmer than yesterday. Visibility is low and AQI is still in the 300+ range, though.

Hoping the warmer temps can help juice up the atmosphere for later.

I don’t think surface warming is much of a factor with this.  Seems more mid level and the best forcing appears to occur well after sunset.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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40 minutes ago, Phil said:

No way that verifies as shown.

Technically guaranteed to be correct with such a vague statement... kudos!

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Days 6-10 of the Euro versus the EPS (EPS left operational Euro right)

FFAB42C1-FC87-4F11-AB2D-9EFD58916F00.png

 

3A28D6F3-2E1F-403A-B5F2-EE4FFC26F5C7.png

 

81584864-E20C-44F7-9CD1-47F69EBD0906.png

 

85A81909-6352-4DF0-AC34-CE063534F3AC.png
 

EPS looks more progressive by day 10 which is more in line with the GFS suite.

Most Eps runs aren't picking up the second development later in the week while Euro went crazy.

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9 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Most Eps runs aren't picking up the second development later in the week while Euro went crazy.

Yep. Although we are talking way out at days 9-10 so subject to change either way I'm sure.

The trough/jet extension before that, on the 24th-26th, is looking pretty hefty on both the operational and EPS right now.  That was barely even showing up when that period was at day 10.

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71F and smoky with an orange sun. Hoping for some lightning tonight! 🙏🏻

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think surface warming is much of a factor with this.  Seems more mid level and the best forcing appears to occur well after sunset.

Couldn't hurt I guess.

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

71F and smoky with an orange sun. Hoping for some lightning tonight! 🙏🏻

Has all this smoke reset your lightning counter back to 1990 again?

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46 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Has all this smoke reset your lightning counter back to 1990 again?

The streak was broken in Dec 2019 lol. I don’t recall seeing a bolt since. I’ve almost been struck twice in the early and then the mid-2000s. Weird sound.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Medford radar is DOWN!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Have not heard from Timmy Supercell for quite a long time... unless I missed some posts.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, dolt said:

Since this is 2020, nothing would surprise me. I don't recall ever seeing this before.

 

tornado.jpg

Oh boy...

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Have not heard from Timmy Supercell for quite a long time... unless I missed some posts.

Good point, I haven’t noticed any posts lately as well. Does he live near any of the burn zones? 

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7 minutes ago, dolt said:

Since this is 2020, nothing would surprise me. I don't recall ever seeing this before.

 

tornado.jpg

Had a 2% TOR and 10% Hail param back in early June around Walla Walla south into E Oregon, this is only the 2nd time I've seen a TOR param on the west side. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Obviously, there have not been enough fires, and more need to be sparked.

This system looks to have some decent rainfall associated with it. I wouldn't worry too much.

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Poll question. Is 2020 cursed? Are we f ucked? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Bulk shear nearing 60kts in some places in the central/southern Oregon Cascades between 650-700mb

MUCAPE/MUCIN around 1100 J/Kg

Could be a very active night for many locations along the west slopes/Willamette valleyimage.png

image.png

 

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11 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Bulk shear nearing 60kts in some places in the central/southern Oregon Cascades between 650-700mb

MUCAPE/MUCIN around 1100 J/Kg

Could be a very active night after 23Z for many locations along the west slopes/Willamette valleyimage.png

image.png

 

Isnt it already past 23z ? Nothing has started yet.

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34 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Bulk shear nearing 60kts in some places in the central/southern Oregon Cascades between 650-700mb

MUCAPE/MUCIN around 1100 J/Kg

Could be a very active night for many locations along the west slopes/Willamette valleyimage.png

image.png

 

No dry lightning please

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One last smoky evening in Silverton. 

49426C4B-B11E-4A17-9E79-73C69A49A8FB.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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There is a smoke clearing line beginning to move quickly northward along the central OR coast.

sat67.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, dolt said:

Is it just me or does that utility pole look like it wants to tip over?

There's always a "brad" who works for the cable/phone company who either cuts new cable too D**n short or the electric company repositions a new pole too far away from existing lines.

Either way, it puts undue stress on poles.

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It's coming I think I can see some cumulonimbus developing in the smoke.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Good blog update from Mark. He seems uncharacteristically bullish about t-storm chances tonight.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com

When he mentions the smoke streaming north from California and Oregon he sounds like he's from Washington. 

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I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

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