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7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

7B13C4F0-A59D-4523-8D73-609D289721C2.jpeg4BF00A43-44B0-4976-95C5-6297185999EA.jpeg

Lock it in.

My goodness that is just beautiful. 

  • Snow 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

THIS IS A TEST. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE OR REPLY TO THIS POST, YOU WILL GET A WARM AND BORING WINTER.

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59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've been hearing for it seems like 10 years from you about how we are just around the corner from some awesome winters. We've had a few nice events, but the same shitshow continues every winter. :(

C'mon now. Three out of the last four winters were not shitshows. 

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58 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's also been pointed out that there is an obvious connection between cold anomalies in other seasons and better winters. Which we're just not seeing in large part. There isn't really a mechanism for 75% of every year torching but then seeing dramatically better winters here. 

In truth, we've actually been pretty fortunate in the timing of some of our few and far between cold periods in recent years. The cold winter months in seasons like 2018-19, 2016-17, and 2013-14 were among the most anomalously cold stretches that we've seen at any point in the last 7-8 years. And just happened to coincide with the winter for us. 

Hasn't the most anomalous cold always come in winter?

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44 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s going to snow so much this winter that I will end up blowing out my engine or transmission on my mower plow! Going to be epic and will make February 2019 look like child’s play! 

0CD4B247-1576-4026-8FC5-CB6F5E54F6F6.jpeg

That month was a total shitshow.

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53 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s going to snow so much this winter that I will end up blowing out my engine or transmission on my mower plow! Going to be epic and will make February 2019 look like child’s play! 

0CD4B247-1576-4026-8FC5-CB6F5E54F6F6.jpeg

 

From my front window on February 12, 2019...

 

20190212-113623.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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27 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

C'mon now. Three out of the last four winters were not shitshows. 

In my location:

16-17 = excellent, and the last winter we got more than just some wet slop

17-18 = meh

18-19 = meh

19-20 = dogsh*t

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47 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hasn't the most anomalous cold always come in winter?

My post was speaking in relative terms. For the PNW, February 2019 was a top 5 cold February in the last century and winter 2016-17 was a top 20 cold DJF in the last century. Toss in another top 10 cold month for many places in December 2013 and you'll see that other examples in other stretches of the year don't match that. The only non-winter stretch that compares with that is October 2019.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

My post was speaking in relative terms. For the PNW, February 2019 was a top 5 cold February in the last century and winter 2016-17 was a top 20 cold season in the last century. Toss in another top 10 cold month for many places in December 2013 and you'll see that other examples in other stretches of the year don't match that. The only non-winter stretch that compares with that is October 2019.

Gotcha. It's a 7 year stretch, so not exactly a huge sample size to look at, but I see your point.

Of course, if you go back within 10 years, we had the top tier cold spring of 2011 as well.

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50 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

In my location:

16-17 = excellent, and the last winter we got more than just some wet slop

17-18 = meh

18-19 = meh

19-20 = dogsh*t

Here's my short review for here:

16-17 = excellent, loved the cold seepage 

17-18 = meh except for Feb 2018 but overall meh

18-19 = meh except for Feb 2019 but overall meh

19-20 = dogsh*t except for a few days in January but overall dogsh*t 

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We’ve had 8 warm summers in a row...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Andrew wants zonal flow.

COLD zonal flow.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, MossMan said:

It’s going to snow so much this winter that I will end up blowing out my engine or transmission on my mower plow! Going to be epic and will make February 2019 look like child’s play! 

0CD4B247-1576-4026-8FC5-CB6F5E54F6F6.jpeg

 

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

7B13C4F0-A59D-4523-8D73-609D289721C2.jpeg4BF00A43-44B0-4976-95C5-6297185999EA.jpeg

Lock it in.

That’s nothing compared to the South Sound! 

88F744BE-B100-4C39-9CF6-62B6E4C4B9BF.jpeg

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

COLD zonal flow.

Yes. Shove that jet down into Northern California.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 57F (Oct 22)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 23)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 23, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What is his agenda? Did you read his blog post. It was interesting. From a context standpoint it seemed useful. 

I read the blog. Of course, nothing he said was factually incorrect and it provided some interesting context. Many points were covered that have been already been made by you or I or others on this forum in the wake of the fires. It's not like we are a bunch of ignoramuses who kneejerk blame everything on climate change here. There is an impressive amount of collective climate/natural science knowledge on this forum that should not be disregarded.

On the other hand, I don't know how it couldn't be obvious that he has an axe to grind when it comes to "debunking" claims about the local effects of a warming climate. Most of his content seems to be inordinately focused on that aspect, rather than discussing in an earnest way some of the grim realities that we have seen and will see in the future as our region continues to warm. It's a pollyanna view. One that obviously appeals to some here who would prefer to smooth over some of the less appealing aspects of a warming regional climate, because frankly they are pretty d*mn glad it's happening in a place whose averages are already on the cool and wet side for their tastes.

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3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

It's also been pointed out that there is an obvious connection between cold anomalies in other seasons and better winters. Which we're just not seeing in large part. There isn't really a mechanism for 75% of every year torching but then seeing dramatically better winters here. 

In truth, we've actually been pretty fortunate in the timing of some of our few and far between cold periods in recent years. The cold winter months in seasons like 2018-19, 2016-17, and 2013-14 were among the most anomalously cold stretches that we've seen at any point in the last 7-8 years. And just happened to coincide with the winter for us. 

This. The idea that somehow seeing less cold anomalies than ever in the surrounding seasons could be anything but a terrible sign for the fate of our winters seems like little more than magical thinking.

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3 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Quick Fred, Lock the forum, there has been a very healthy/constructive discussion about global climate trends over the past hour, but if feels like we are about to lose it.....

Computer! Initiate attack pattern  Delta two!

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Some smoky haze has drifted back into the picture today. AQI back up into the moderate category. Probably from the still smoldering Cascade fires nearby.

Hopefully the brief cool and wet pattern coming up the middle to late part of this week can finish them off. Although there has been an ongoing trend to shorten the cool and wet period the last few days. Higher than average heights hold on a little longer this week and return a little sooner over the weekend. 💗

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Gotcha. It's a 7 year stretch, so not exactly a huge sample size to look at, but I see your point.

Of course, if you go back within 10 years, we had the top tier cold spring of 2011 as well.

Yeah, a strong La Nina could follow a different script. That's pretty much the only sure way to get any appreciably cool spring/summer weather anymore. We'll see if this one gets there.

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46 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I read the blog. Of course, nothing he said was factually incorrect and it provided some interesting context. Many points were covered that have been already been made by you or I or others on this forum in the wake of the fires. It's not like we are a bunch of ignoramuses who kneejerk blame everything on climate change here. There is an impressive amount of collective climate/natural science knowledge on this forum that should not be disregarded.

On the other hand, I don't know how it couldn't be obvious that he has an axe to grind when it comes to "debunking" claims about the local effects of a warming climate. Most of his content seems to be inordinately focused on that aspect, rather than discussing in an earnest way some of the grim realities that we have seen and will see in the future as our region continues to warm. It's a pollyanna view that obviously appeals to some here who would prefer to smooth over some of the less appealing aspects of a warming regional climate because they are pretty d*mn glad it's happening in a place whose averages are already on the cool and wet side for their tastes.

You don't know anything for sure.  It could turn cold later this year and stay colder than we have been accustomed to for decades.  We don't know enough about the solar aspect yet.  As I said earlier in a bout 50 years we will have a very good idea after going through the grand minimum.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Only good day this past winter.

 

IMG_20200314_071736_629.jpg

Looks soggy.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks soggy.

I'm not sure what day this is from or that person's location, but we had some nice fluffy snow in mid-March. Stuck around in spots for a few days too.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You don't know anything for sure.  It could turn cold later this year and stay colder than we have been accustomed to for decades.  We don't know enough about the solar aspect yet.  As I said earlier in a bout 50 years we will have a very good idea after going through the grand minimum.

There is simply no support in the paleoclimate literature for solar variability having an influence on climate. And people have looked very, very hard. (e.g. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep239610) 

So yeah, it *could* get epically colder for decades, but I'll always go with science over supposition. 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You don't know anything for sure.  It could turn cold later this year and stay colder than we have been accustomed to for decades.  We don't know enough about the solar aspect yet.  As I said earlier in a bout 50 years we will have a very good idea after going through the grand minimum.

 

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4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

There is simply no support in the paleoclimate literature for solar variability having an influence on climate. And people have looked very, very hard. (e.g. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep239610) 

So yeah, it *could* get epically colder for decades, but I'll always go with science over supposition. 

To be fair, the last time the sun was in a grand solar minimum was in the early 1800s. The Earth was still in the Little Ice Age back then. The climate is much warmer today. And I'm pretty sure there was a grand minimum that occurred during part of the MWP as well.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I could definitely see this winter changing some people's minds. Not that one winter means that much, but that's how it goes around here.

About what. Whether or not our region's climate is warming? 

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If models are right, looks pretty D**n warm to close out the month into October. To date, month is already running a good +6F for SEA. 

This is also typically the time of year where we see a sharp drop in average highs, where it goes from avg (high) of 70 to mid 60s in just a matter of a week. But it look like we’re gonna be dealing with a warm spell. 

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8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

To be fair, the last time the sun was in a grand solar minimum was in the early 1800s. The Earth was still in the Little Ice Age back then. The climate is much warmer today. And I'm pretty sure there was a grand minimum that occurred during part of the MWP as well.

Yeah. The latest reconstructions of climate and solar activity suggest that there is no causal connection between solar activity and climate though. That could change with more data, but for now there is nothing there. 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

If models are right, looks pretty D**n warm to close out the month into October. To date, month is already running a good +6F for SEA. 

This is also typically the time of year where we see a sharp drop in average highs, where it goes from avg (high) of 70 to mid 60s in just a matter or a week. But it look like we’re gonna he dealing with a warm spell. 

Yeah. It’s pretty gross considering what we’ve already seen this month.

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah. It’s pretty gross considering what we’ve already seen this month.

I agree. Not particularly happy about it. 

Tim might be, in fact, think a couple days of AR straight back into the warm is what he would prefers.

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14 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I agree. Not particularly happy about it. 

Tim might be, in fact, think a couple days of AR straight back into the warm is what he would prefers.

How in the hell does what I prefer matter to nature or the EPS??    

OK... I want cold and rain.   There.   Now it will happen.    🙄

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How in the hell does what I prefer matter to nature or the EPS??    

OK... I want cold and rain.   There.   Now it will happen.    🙄

 

Well this is gonna be fun.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 57F (Oct 22)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 23)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 23, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Why does tim or anyone’s weather preference even matter? Same argument all the time....

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Why does tim or anyone’s weather preference even matter? Same argument all the time....

NO. Other people's weather preferences mean EVERYTHING to me. You had better like the same weather that I do. 😡

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

I'm not sure what day this is from or that person's location, but we had some nice fluffy snow in mid-March. Stuck around in spots for a few days too.

PDX, and it was soggy and gone just as quick as it came.

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2 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Hey gang I am signing in from Spokane Valley WA. My long shared dream of getting over to the East side of the state happened in August. We are living in an apartment in Spokane Valley until we can find property in Idaho and have our house built. We are looking in the Hayden to Sandpoint area for some land to build on. I am pumped to spend my first winter over here. I will report in from time to time. SUPER EXCITED!!!!! 😃

Congrats! Time for a name change? It might be more fitting over there.

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2 hours ago, joelgombiner said:

There is simply no support in the paleoclimate literature for solar variability having an influence on climate. And people have looked very, very hard. (e.g. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep239610) 

So yeah, it *could* get epically colder for decades, but I'll always go with science over supposition. 

Problem is long term solar/climate studies often look for linear correlations when in reality the connection is nonlinear and state dependent. The linear stuff is nothing more than inadequate, shallow minded thinking.

And it’s not possible to resolve via GCMs or even (most) proxy reconstructions, save for some fundamentals here and there.

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