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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

THIS IS A TEST. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE OR REPLY TO THIS POST, YOU WILL GET A WARM AND BORING WINTER.

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2 hours ago, Cloud said:

If models are right, looks pretty D**n warm to close out the month into October. To date, month is already running a good +6F for SEA. 

This is also typically the time of year where we see a sharp drop in average highs, where it goes from avg (high) of 70 to mid 60s in just a matter of a week. But it look like we’re gonna be dealing with a warm spell. 

SEA is actually running +4.4 for the month.

 

 

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Low. Solar.

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21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

About how doomed PNW winters are.

No one said that. Just making the fairly obvious observation that less cold to go around throughout the year doesn’t necessarily bode well for top tier winter cold. The fact that we haven’t seen a top tier midwinter airmass since 1990 doesn’t exactly hurt this point.

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7 hours ago, PDXWISCO said:

I'm confused here, are you trying to compare the ebb and flow of how the climate changes over millions of years compared to a drastic change in say roughly 200 years? 

And because human's didn't cause a shift to and from ice ages over 20,000-40,000 year periods, is justification that human's aren't causing it now? 

Eh, climate change between/within ice ages and interglacials is often extremely rapid/jumpy. More-so than the present warming, even. The whole “gradual” thing was debunked decades ago.

For whatever it’s worth, paleoclimate is my primary field of study.

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14 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Hey gang I am signing in from Spokane Valley WA. My long shared dream of getting over to the East side of the state happened in August. We are living in an apartment in Spokane Valley until we can find property in Idaho and have our house built. We are looking in the Hayden to Sandpoint area for some land to build on. I am pumped to spend my first winter over here. I will report in from time to time. SUPER EXCITED!!!!! 😃

Yay! 🥶☃️

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

NO. Other people's weather preferences mean EVERYTHING to me. You had better like the same weather that I do. 😡

It’s just stupid...it’s the same people fighting about preferences who are also wondering why we don’t get new members on here and why actual Mets don’t post here. It’s because of stupid preference battles and it really takes away from a lot of the good info posted on here. Lots of knowledge and good stuff gets lost pages of stupid meaningless arguments. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s just stupid...it’s the same people fighting about preferences who are also wondering why we don’t get new members on here. It’s because of stupid preference battles and it really takes away from a lot of the good info posted on here. Lots of knowledge and good stuff gets lost in stupid meaningless arguments. 

This stuff is way more constructive.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

This stuff is way more constructive.

Thanks. I’ll try to be more like you Mr.perfect. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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27 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Thanks. I’ll try to be more like you Mr.perfect. 

You seem fired up tonight. I don't think there have even been any big "preference battles" the last several days. At least nothing I’ve actively been a part of.

Maybe you are getting the discussion on the affects of climate change in our region confused with a preference battle? 

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00Z GFS still shows some decent rainfall this weekend. But there is a pretty sharp cutoff south and west of the Portland area. Totals down the valley generally under one inch.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

You seem fired up tonight. I don't think there have even been any "preference battles" the last several days.

It’s all the time not just tonight. Just wish people could get along better on here. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s all the time not just tonight. Just wish people could get along better on here. 

What sort of preference battle is happening tonight? 

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Looks like inciweb is posting some aerial photos from the Beachie Creek Fire area now. They did a flyover yesterday. Definitely seems like a mosaic type burn so far, from what I’m seeing.

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63F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant smoke on the porch.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What sort of preference battle is happening tonight? 

I guess you haven’t been reading. I guess I’m just tired of posting here. Honestly I think I’m done posting here for good because of this BS. It’s not just tonight it’s a constant issue. Wish it wasn’t this way it but is. Peace out! 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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41 minutes ago, Phil said:

Eh, climate change between/within ice ages and interglacials is often extremely rapid/jumpy. More-so than the present warming, even. The whole “gradual” thing was debunked decades ago.

For whatever it’s worth, paleoclimate is my primary field of study.

What do you think about magnetic reversals (and waffling of said reversals) and its effect on future climate and paleoclimates? And of course, looking at the evidence, it appears these reversals aren't linear at all and occur over a large time frame from a human perspective.

It's all very non-linear. Humans have a very hard time looking at things in that way. 

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20 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I guess you haven’t been reading. I guess I’m just tired of posting here. Honestly I think I’m done posting here for good because of this BS. It’s not just tonight it’s a constant issue. Wish it wasn’t this way it but is. Peace out! 

Hope you don’t mean that. I like your posts and your general positive attitude. As well as the outdoors stuff.

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18 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looks like inciweb is posting some aerial photos from the Beachie Creek Fire area now. They did a flyover yesterday. Definitely seems like a mosaic type burn so far, from what I’m seeing.

That's good news, I couldn't have imagined what the satellite view of western Oregon would have looked like if that whole area was burned. I guess we can thank the wind for one thing.

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I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

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1 minute ago, El_Nina said:

That's good news, I couldn't have imagined what the satellite view of western Oregon would have looked like if that whole area was burned. I guess we can thank the wind for one thing.

I will post a few of the pics once I get off of mobile.

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A couple of the first aerial photos of the Beachie Creek/Santiam Canyon Fire. One is near Mill City I believe, while the second is the slope to its north. Definite mosaic signature in both of these.

1248BBC2-BC2B-4861-A43F-B53645C19C24.jpeg
 

DC1F70F0-428A-4250-BAED-EFE4FD93838D.jpeg

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

How in the hell does what I prefer matter to nature or the EPS??    

OK... I want cold and rain.   There.   Now it will happen.    🙄

 

Jesus christ dude. It was a harmless comment. Triggered much?? Lol

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

SEA is actually running +4.4 for the month.

 

 

Eh? No it's not. Average for the month is 61.4F

To date as of Sept. 20 SEA is at 66.9F. 

Getting my data directly from the NWS Forecast Office for SEA. 

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18 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Jesus christ dude. It was a harmless comment. Triggered much?? Lol

I was just kidding around too.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Eh? No it's not. Average for the month is 61.4F

To date as of Sept. 20 SEA is at 66.9F. 

Getting my data directly from the NWS Forecast Office for SEA. 

Looking at it from that perspective is misleading.  The daily averages are dropping all month. September is almost always going to be warmer than 61.4F at mid month.  

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Gonna rain a whole bunch from my area northward into SW BC over the next week.   Probably half a foot or more in some places.   Too bad its not focused farther south where its needed more.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I've read 83 pages of analysis, discussions, conjecture, condescending remarks, sarcasm, premature ejaculating over premature retrogression, viewed a bunch of maps, pics, charts, saw that VancouverIslandSouth moved to Spokane, and other input, but can anyone answer if it's going to snow this Winter? C'MON!!!!

00z GFS (December 1st) in 1,696 hours 11 minutes

 

Think Cold and SNOW!

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13 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Let's all be nice to each other and move on from the petty arguments...you know...could be nice ;) 

Were people being petty and arguing? I missed that part. Not surprised, but yeah. C'mon people!

 

12z GFS in 14 minutes

12z ECMWF in 2 hours 31 minutes

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32 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Now that's a lot of rain coming: 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Hey an inch is still better than nothing!! Currently 61F after a low of 55F.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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So far the 12Z GFS cuts rain amounts for PDX in half compared to the 00z run. Really hope this isn't a last minute trend.

Overcast with a mild low of 59 here overnight.

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4 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

I've read 83 pages of analysis, discussions, conjecture, condescending remarks, sarcasm, premature ejaculating over premature retrogression, viewed a bunch of maps, pics, charts, saw that VancouverIslandSouth moved to Spokane, and other input, but can anyone answer if it's going to snow this Winter? C'MON!!!!

00z GFS (December 1st) in 1,696 hours 11 minutes

 

Think Cold and SNOW!

Retrogression is nothing to joke about.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So far the 12Z GFS cuts rain amounts for PDX in half compared to the 00z run. Really hope this isn't a last minute trend.

Overcast with a mild low of 59 here overnight.

The moisture has always looked to be centered to our north. Not a huge surprise to see that happening. 

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Well the morning GFS says it's gonna be a warmer and drier than normal start to October...who could have ever guessed?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Well the morning GFS says it's gonna be a warmer and drier than normal start to October...who could have ever guessed?

At some point it is going to flip with the Nina.  1988-89 was one of my favorite winters and it got off to a very slow start that season.  I'm guessing at least one decent cold snap in October.  We shall see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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A surprise 0.01" overnight brings September to 1.38". Hoping for at least an inch later this week so we can at least have a fairly normal September precip wise. 

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Glad things are clearing out now so we can score another above average high after a ridiculously warm night. Luckily we avoided any measurable rainfall too. Hopefully it clouds up again just in time for sunset tonight.

Sort of mind boggling to think how warm this month would be ending up if it weren't for the smoke inversion episode. GFS has highs 85-90 for PDX the last few days of the month. A ~70 degree average would not have been out of the question at that location.

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Given that it likely will be raining here with very little break until next Monday... I am glad to see some drier weather on the horizon.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Given that it likely will be raining here with very little break until next Monday... I am glad to see some drier weather on the horizon.    

Sometimes I don't know what's worse. Jesse's whining or you shoving it in his face. By late November the roles will probably be reversed. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sometimes I don't know what's worse. Jesse's whining or you shoving it in his face. By late November the roles will probably be reversed. 

Shoving what?   I am very glad to see some drier weather on the horizon because the next 6 days are going to be extremely wet for September here.     That is just my perspective.   Just like Tiger wants more rain and I totally understand that as well.    Does not have to be war all the time... we all have different perspectives.  

I know that by next Monday we will probably be well above normal for September rainfall in what has been a wet year in this area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Shoving what?   I am very glad to see some drier weather on the horizon because the next 6 days are going to be extremely wet for September here.    That is just my perspective.   Just like Tiger wants more rain and I totally understand that as well.   

Tri-Cities will be completely dry. Not too late to book a trip?

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Shoving what?   I am very glad to see some drier weather on the horizon because the next 6 days are going to be extremely wet for September here.     That is just my perspective.   Just llike Tiger wants more rain and I totally understand that as well.    Does not have to be war all the time... we all have different perspectives.  

It is just a broken record you two. 

I am grateful for the rain we are going to get later this week. I wish were were entering the unending wet season, but still have a ton of yard and house projects so I don't mind the nice days coming up.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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