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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One good thing to be said for this turd of a month is it effectively takes 1933 off the table as an analog.  That September was very cool and wet.

I was thinking warmest September on record was probably off the table for PDX thanks mostly to the smokeversion the middle part of the month. But with the recent very mild nights and some very warm days to end the month it is looking more likely.

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

THIS IS A TEST. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE OR REPLY TO THIS POST, YOU WILL GET A WARM AND BORING WINTER.

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Has the GFS been upgraded now?   I saw Mark mentioned new GFS ensembles in his latest blog post.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Mild and breezy morning with some sunbreaks here. Had a low of 57.

Up to 61 currently. Looks like some heavier showers are moving onshore now. Hopefully some active showers and downpours later this afternoon.

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2.21” of rain here.  Though 2.54” in my Davis gauge. 
 

Friday’s system trended north and stronger the past 2 days.  It was originally modeled to go south of here.  Now it’s heading for the central BC coast. 
 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

That is pretty heartbreaking. We visiting Shellburg falls in May 2019 and it was so lush and green then. Very nice spot. 

 

It's sad. It is truly a really neat and often overlooked area. It has gained in popularity quite a bit over the past 10-15 years. When I was a kid I had never even heard of it, I don't think I went there until 2007 or 08. Some of my best memories with my ex-wife were when we would take our dogs out there and spend a relaxing day in the woods. I hate to even tell her about this, she will be devastated. Every summer when she comes out here she hikes Shellburg Falls and Opal Creek. :( 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

2.21” of rain here.  Though 2.54” in my Davis gauge. 
 

Friday’s system trended north and stronger the past 2 days.  It was originally modeled to go south of here.  Now it’s heading for the central BC coast. 
 

Luckily the northward shift of the low doesn't really change rainfall totals down here.

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

It's sad. It is truly a really neat and often overlooked area. It has gained in popularity quite a bit over the past 10-15 years. When I was a kid I had never even heard of it, I don't think I went there until 2007 or 08. Some of my best memories with my ex-wife were when we would take our dogs out there and spend a relaxing day in the woods. I hate to even tell her about this, she will be devastated. Every summer when she comes out here she hikes Shellburg Falls and Opal Creek. :( 

Sadly we only visited that one time. But it was a nice enough spot that we planned to come back and bring friends and family. I was thinking the fall would be a pretty time to go with all the deciduous trees there...

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I'm pretty impressed with the changes that have taken place in the models for this weekend.  What looked like a warm and gross washout has morphed into a much drier and cooler interlude.  This should be enough to assure we will come in below September 1967 for temperature average.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Our long awaited summer ends October 4th on the 12Z GFS. 😢

Nice run!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty impressed with the changes that have taken place in the models for this weekend.  What looked like a warm and gross washout has morphed into a much drier and cooler interlude.  This should be enough to assure we will come in below September 1967 for temperature average.

Gonna be a really close call down here. Although our warmest Septembers were 1994 and 2014 with an average of 67.6F. PDX is currently 0.4 above the record.

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12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Gonna be a really close call down here. Although our warmest Septembers were 1994 and 2014 with an average of 67.6F. PDX is currently 0.4 above the record.

I think it will come down to how warm the 29th nd 30th get.  No doubt the next 4 days or so look pretty cool.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Things are really improving.

It's like the changes shown for the weekend have kind of reshuffled the deck.  I hope this run is onto something.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it will come down to how warm the 29th nd 30th get.  No doubt the next 4 days or so look pretty cool.

The mild nights are really propping things up too. This morning was the third in a row with a 60+ low at PDX which is pretty silly for this late in the season. 

Maybe they will be able to improve upon today’s low by this evening. But that’s what I thought about yesterday’s too.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The mild nights are really propping things up too. This morning was the third in a row with a 60+ low at PDX which is pretty silly for this late in the season. 

Maybe they will be able to improve upon today’s low by this evening. But that’s what I thought about yesterday’s too.

We're in  a solidly cool air mass right now.  I think they should improve on their min.  Right now it appears the weekend mins will be a lot cooler.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're in  a solidly cool air mass right now.  I think they should improve on their min.  Right now it appears the weekend mins will be a lot cooler.

Pretty difficult to get cold minimum temps under humid SW flow.

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19 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The operational is the most aggressive  member of the GFS ensemble when it comes to the cool down.  An outlier for now. 

Thank goud.💗

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19 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The operational is the most aggressive  member of the GFS ensemble when it comes to the cool down.  An outlier for now. 

12Z GEFS looks pretty similar to recent EPS runs...

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-2244800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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58 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Gonna be a really close call down here. Although our warmest Septembers were 1994 and 2014 with an average of 67.6F. PDX is currently 0.4 above the record.

Both El Ninos if I recall correctly. What were some of our warmer Nina Septembers? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're in  a solidly cool air mass right now.  I think they should improve on their min.  Right now it appears the weekend mins will be a lot cooler.

Doesn't feel that cool down here so the whole region isn't experiencing it. 850s go back up close to 25c here again soon too.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Doesn't feel that cool down here so the whole region isn't experiencing it. 850s go back up close to 25c here again soon too.

Talking upper level numbers. Thicknesses bottomed out around 550dm this morning which is a pretty typical reading for a coolish trough in late September.

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Both El Ninos if I recall correctly. What were some of our warmer Nina Septembers? 

Out and about now but good question I would be interested to see.

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Talking upper level numbers. Thicknesses bottomed out around 550dm this morning which is a pretty typical reading for a coolish trough in late September.

I’m talking about after this pithy shot of rain thru Sat morning. Then things get toasty by late Sept and early Oct standards. Wondering if we can hit 90+ in October. It’s happened a handful of times here in the past.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just hoping it stays mild so you have something to whine and moan about.  Just thinking of you really.  You’re welcome. 

Hoping for a very strong N-S gradient this winter. :)

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3 minutes ago, luminen said:

Hoping for a very strong N-S gradient this winter. :)

Yep, right along the Oregon/California border. 😉

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We’ll just call you Torchy McTorchface from now on.

I'm hoping for a mild eventless winter with endless streaks of morning clouds and afternoon sun.

Rain, wind, flooding, ice and snow are not appealing any more.

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10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just hoping it stays mild so you have something to whine and moan about.  Just thinking of you really.  You’re welcome. 

🇨🇦 🎣 

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3 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

I'm hoping for a mild eventless winter with endless streaks of morning clouds and afternoon sun.

Rain, wind, flooding, ice and snow are not appealing any more.

You should move to Las Vegas.

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the new model that goes out 35 days is going to push some people into the looney bin when don't verify

i'll be here to watch the meltdown

it's 2020 and everything is a train wreck and i'd expect nothing less from this site

Jim, Tim and Jesse......it's gonna be great

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13 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

I'm hoping for a mild eventless winter with endless streaks of morning clouds and afternoon sun.

Rain, wind, flooding, ice and snow are not appealing any more.

So a second Tim basically. Shouldn’t make too big of a dent in things overall. I’m guessing you won’t post as much.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Deck has definitely been re-shuffled on the 12Z ECMWF in 9 days...

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (1).png

Because when I think of what we desperately need in the Willamette Valley, I think of extended periods of dry and warm to hot weather in the fall after a firestorm.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10, 15, & 21)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 22)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Because when I think of what we desperately need in the Willamette Valley, I think of extended periods of dry and warm to hot weather in the fall after a firestorm.

 

Hey it is probably raining in North Bend, WA right now! Think of Tim losing vitamin D as we speak. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Nothing a trip to Moses Lake can't fix!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Hey it is probably raining in North Bend, WA right now! Think of Tim losing vitamin D as we speak. 

I don't control the weather.   We have had a ton of rain here recently so its nice to see another sunny period coming up.  Regardless of what I want... nature will do whatever its going to do.  

Why do you care so much what people hundreds of miles away think about their local weather?   🤔

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like a fairly strong little cell is headed into Puyallup. Some decent rain here currently.

image.png

Doesn’t matter...PuyallupJon does not care about the weather anymore. 

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