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Headed up to the central Willamette Valley. Partly to mostly cloudy and 72F and dry. Nice day!

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 15 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The house still stands. They let us in to check on the animals. Without the dogs there 4 of the chickens and 1 of the ducks have been killed, but the sheep and pig are doing well. We hauled fresh wate

Test. React with snow.

Power went out around 8pm last night. The wind was insane. Sheriff came at 6am and said go now. We are safe, we probably having nothing left but the clothes on our backs. Were able to save to dogs and

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4 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Jeeeeem is not gonna be happy with that map.

Get the torching out of the way in Oct and the first half of Nov then Mother Nature can drop the Arctic hammer on us.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 15 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Get the torching out of the way in Oct and the first half of Nov then Mother Nature can drop the Arctic hammer on us.

Doesn’t work that way. Never has. Never will.

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Doesn’t work that way. Never has. Never will.

One day we might have another cooler than normal month down this way. Gonna be 7 straight warmer than normal months after Oct.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 15 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Found it.   They only have 7-day averages for 850mb temps... not daily.

Here is the first GEFS extended map posted here... the 7-day mean for October 21-28 (day 28-35) 

 

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-3843200.png

I like it. That's the perfect time of the year for warm anomalies. How does the rest of October look? 

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4 minutes ago, dolt said:

I like it. That's the perfect time of the year for warm anomalies. How does the rest of October look? 

Just checked... its basically the same.  

Here is week by week for all of October:

 

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-2115200.png

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-2720000.png

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-3324800.png

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-3843200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Doesn’t work that way. Never has. Never will.

It can work that way statistically.

Doesn’t mean it will, of course.

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Pleasant day with partly cloudy skies, a breeze, and a high of 68º. A nice September day.

Hoping for more rain tomorrow before heading into yet another extended period of ridging, but the vast majority of storms here have under-performed recently.

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0.25” of rain today.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

70 degree Halloween?

67.   Low sun angle... weak inversion.   Lock it in.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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When was the last time Seattle hit 80 in October?

 

Obviously a lot can change in a week, but it seems quite possible they get there next Thursday. 

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

When was the last time Seattle hit 80 in October?

 

Obviously a lot can change in a week, but it seems quite possible they get there next Thursday. 

1993. SEA also did it in 1991, 1987, 1980, 1975, 1961, and 1951. 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1993. SEA also did it in 1991, 1987, 1980, 1975, 1961, and 1951. 

Thanks. First in 27 years would be pretty impressive.

 

I think I saw they hit 89 in 1987. Crazy to imagine it being nearly 90 in October.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Thanks. First in 27 years would be pretty impressive.

 

I think I saw they hit 89 in 1987. Crazy to imagine it being nearly 90 in October.

Yes, the 1987 ridge was insane. Snoqualmie Falls hit 95 with that on 10/1.

PDX actually hit 90+ in October three separate times in the 1980s (1980, 1987, 1988). Only has managed to reach 86 since then.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX has an outside shot at the latest 95+ on record.  9-27 in 2003...

As of right now none of the models show any super impressive compressional heating component with this. Will be tough to get much above 90.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

As of right now none of the models show any super impressive compressional heating component with this. Will be tough to get much above 90.

It’ll definitely take a sharper thermal trough, but those typically aren’t handled too well in the mid range.  The upper level ingredients are definitely there.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Guess I will wait to winterize the boat and jetski. 

Tiger says wait until after Thanksgiving.

And it’s driving Jesse INSANE.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, Eujunga said:

The dice have no memory.

Yup. And as the dice get loaded progressively warmer the odds of rolling cold decrease for every roll. Regardless of the seasonal timing.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

As of right now none of the models show any super impressive compressional heating component with this. Will be tough to get much above 90.

Yeah. The ridge appears to be too broad to get any sort of focused thermal trough. At least for now...

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4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

One day we might have another cooler than normal month down this way. Gonna be 7 straight warmer than normal months after Oct.

Slightly above normal is the new cooler than normal! 💓

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26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Slightly above normal is the new cooler than normal! 💓

If anyone knows of a PNW investment opportunity for palm trees, let me know. Seems like this is a good time to get in before all the institutional investment companies catch on. Palm trees are the future.

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73/54 for Springfield. Hopefully some rain tomorrow before the tap shuts off for who knows how long?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 15 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0795&yr=2020

 

NWSWPC is going all in for a big/high-end rain event within the next 12 hours over the Coast/Olympics/North Cascades. Radar is going full Christmas tree. Calling for 3-5" w/ .75"/hr+ rainfall rates. Very dynamic situation.

 

"Strong Southwesterly flow with rapidly increase from 30kts at 850mb to around 50-60kts near 12-13z, providing that strong isentropic/orographic ascent across the Olympic range. But given positive to neutral to possibly negative tilting of the inflection of the trof in diffluent flow will rapidly increase divergence aloft and support very strong vertical ascent. This will be maximized with as sharp veering convergence flow to come ashore in the 13-14z time frame. Combined with total PWATs increasing from 1.25 to near 1.5", flux convergence is likely to support .75"/hr rates along this north-northeast to south-southwest axis, this without thermal instability fields with less than 100 J/kg forecast in this warm conveyor belt surge. Adding favorable SW to W orographic ascent in the Olympics at 50-60kts may add .5"/hr rates as suggested by the broad suite of Hi-Res CAMs including the RAP/HRRR. While this area is not typically prone to flash flooding (due to limited infrastructure in the frequently inundated flow channels), rapid rises should be expected though due to 3-5" totals across the Olympics by 15z (1.5-2.5" for lower coastal ranges of SW WA into NW OR)."

 

mcd0795.gif

IMG_4639.PNG

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7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.01” so far on the day, 2.06” on the month. 
cloudy and windy. Been very gusty for the last few hours. 

Raining all around you... and you barely have anything.     And they say you live in an area that always gets pounded with rain!   

You area is often shadowed in our big SW flow rain events.   But you make it up with c-zones... and it all averages out to be similar to other areas along the I-5 corridor.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA is over 2 inches on the month now... normal is 1.5 inches for September.     Going to end up at least 135% of normal for the month which seemed very unlikely a couple weeks ago.   Probably won't get to the 3.32 inches there last September though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Ah, but if less is more, think about how much more more would be. 

(Sitcom quote. If anyone guesses the sitcom, you'll get a 'like'.) 

Seattle based comedy.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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