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July 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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We need to discuss why storms go around I-64 and it happens a lot.. 

I do hear thunder coming though, in any case. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 39
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 6/23, 6/25, 6/29, 7/3, 7/4, 7/5, 7/14, 7/16, 

Severe storms: 3
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Parts of Chicago have had 6-7"+ of rain.

Highest report I've seen so far:

 

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Chicago IL
315 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     Rain             1 NNE Berwyn            41.86N 87.78W
07/02/2023  M8.21 inch       Cook               IL   Public

            Private weather station KILCICER16 recorded
            8.21 inches of rainfall since 700AM. Rain
            ongoing.

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Happy Monday!  It was a record setting day in Chicago as ORD record 3.35" of rain while the city of Chicago got nailed with torrential rains the inundated parts of the city with flooding.  Everything came together perfectly for COOK county as this system had characteristics of a cold core trough you would see in the colder months.  Temps only topped out at 73F (-11F) as you would imagine with a wind off the lake amidst heavy downpours.  The sun did try to peak out late in the evening.  I really wanted to go and see fireworks but I decided not to and prob will head out today or tomorrow.

 

July 2nd Heavy Rain Event for Chicago.png

 

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It looks like some spots across Southern Chester County picked up some rain earlier this AM. Up here in East Nantmeal nothing so far. There will continue to be a slight chance of some pop up storms today with a better shot by tomorrow evening. Wednesday and Thursday we look to warm into the upper 80's both days. In looking ahead they look to be the warmest days through at least July 19th. A climate note of interest - here in East Nantmeal I have now not recorded a 90 degree or higher reading in more than 2 years. The last above 90 degree day was on June 30th, 2021. I did record one day last summer on July 23rd that reached 89.7 - so we round that up and call it a 90 degree day. I know many spots in the county especially southern and lower spots did reach the 90 degree mark back on June 2nd - however we could do no higher than 88.8 here in East Nantmeal.
Records for today: High 102 (1966) / Low 47 (1929) / Rain 3.19" (1978)
image.png.3630fdc64fac1f498602f43ceb111bf0.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Most CAMs showing a chance of a few storms here this afternoon with chances each day through Saturday on the global models. Really ought to get at least something. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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You can sure feel the effects of all the rainfall and the rapidly growing corn crop putting off water into the air. One of the more oppressive days we’ve had this summer, temp in the low 80’s at 11:45 am, upper 60’s dew, with a calm wind. By tomorrow evening the strong cold front barrels through with potential severe storms and heavy rainfall. Then temps in the 70’s for highs and lows in the 50’s for the rest of the week with more rain chances. Wow. 

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Sea breeze front passed through here at my place in Sea Isle City NJ during the past hour - our temps have dropped from 92.5 to now 80.4 in 20 minutes. Today was our 1st 90+ day here on the barrier islands of the NJ coast.

SIC 070323.jpg

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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First cicadas confirmed! I guess after a week or two of solid lows over upper 60's it gets warm enough for them to pop their heads out of the dirt. :P

They sound really cute after not hearing them for months. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 39
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 6/23, 6/25, 6/29, 7/3, 7/4, 7/5, 7/14, 7/16, 

Severe storms: 3
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Got a quarter inch of rain here today. Looks like more rain likely Wednesday-Thursday. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Tonight and tomorrow are looking potentially interesting for some severe thunderstorms. Probably among the best shots we've had so far this season at scoring something. Although, that's not really saying much given how quiet it's been.

Heck, it already got interesting today in some spots of SD. Tornado touched down in Tabor, SD and we had some very close lightning with a large thunderstorm that blew up near the water park we were at earlier. Ended up having a lightning delay for about an hour where we couldn't swim, but it all worked out and the kids had a blast.

 

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Here is the EPS for my area. Great agreement on a wet period coming up, and the extended doesn't look too bad either. I added some GFS charts showing the general idea, which is basically just a good set up for an MCS in the area every day Wednesday night through Sunday. At least a few of those are bound to work out. image.png

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Some spots across Southern Chester County saw over 2" of rain last night...while folks in the Northern parts saw nothing. There is a chance of more hit and miss storms later today so maybe some of the Northern folks can cash in today. Cooler today before both Wednesday and Thursday see temps in the upper 80's. Rain chances return by the weekend.
Records for today: High 101 (1919) / Low 45 (1986) / Rain 1.89" (2019)
image.png.bbdd8b252bfd3a0c2bba87ed9504495f.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Timing of the storms tonight couldn’t be much worse. NWS Hastings highlighting this in their morning disco. 

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Initially the threat will be hail to the size of ping pong balls and wind gusts to around 60 mph...with the threat transitioning to very strong wind gusts up to 80 mph during the evening hours. Expect possible disruptions to holiday celebrations across much of the area this evening.


 

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Happy 4th of July. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 87/66 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 54% of the time. For today the average H/L is 82/62. The record high of 100 was set in 1897 and 1911 it was 99 in 2012. The record low of 45 was set in 1972. The record rain fall amount of 1.71” fell in 1903. On the 4th the high has reached 90 or better a total of 25 times. There has been a total of 19 times when the low did not get below 70. On the flip side there have been 5 years when the high did not reach 70 with the coldest high of 64 happening in 1970. Last year the H/L was 90/62.

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15 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

First cicadas confirmed! I guess after a week or two of solid lows over upper 60's it gets warm enough for them to pop their heads out of the dirt. :P

They sound really cute after not hearing them for months. 

I heard the first cicada here last evening too. 

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On Sunday I had the 5th and last consecutive day of rainfall, but all of them were frustratingly light amounting to a total of just 0.81". I got 0.30" on Sunday from morning and again from isolated pm showers. An isolated storm that afternoon dumped heavy rain on my brother's farm about 6 mi Southeast. Nearby places last week, especially to the south, got more. I'm grateful for everything we got and was nice having a little rain  every day! It was just enough to green up the lawn's a little, but it's definitely dry yet.

BTW, my June rainfall totaled just 1.88". 

🇺🇲Happy Fourth of July everyone ‼️ 🎆🧨🇺🇲

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4 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Here is the EPS for my area. Great agreement on a wet period coming up, and the extended doesn't look too bad either. I added some GFS charts showing the general idea, which is basically just a good set up for an MCS in the area every day Wednesday night through Sunday. At least a few of those are bound to work out. image.png

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Awesome pattern setting up. Will do great in keeping major heat swatted down to our south and west as we go on towards prime or peak summer. Truly a blessing to see drought get another possible punch in the gut

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It doesn't get a whole lot better than this for most of the eastern US. I doubt everyone will win, because it just never happens that way, but just, wow. Knowing where our pattern has evolved from in 45-60 days to now is remarkable.

 

eps_apcpn_us_60.png

Andie looks to be the last holdout. She'll have one more good heat cycle to deal with before more lasting relief comes, then Autumn. I believe she still gets a break at the peak of TX summer, which will come as a blessing to her, while California has problems starting to develop again as ridging continues to try and set up over the lower west coast. 

1965-66, the late 70s summer's and 2009 are still top-quality guidance going forward. 

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Greetings from wisky dells and happy 4th! Was pretty cool driving here on I-90 first time I have ever been in that area. Meanwhile back home I don’t think I have ever seen a forecast like this before! Sucks I won’t get to see it but happy to see more rain in the forecast. 

IMG_2663.png

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Happy 4th guys!   
We have a hot one.  97*

Breezy. 13-18mph. Humidity 37%.  Good day to enjoy the A/C. 
OKwx2k4’s forecast sounds great. I was concerned we would see this heat straight into late Sept-Oct. A reasonable drop in temps will be most welcome and hopefully some rain will be mixed in with this  

Its really uncomfortable today. Sucks the life right out of you. My husband decided to trim shrubs today.

(Yes, he’s a glutton for punishment. )

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Seems like things are blowing up further northeast than they were forecasted to in Nebraska. I might have a shot of a really good MCS down in Saint Joe MO later tonight. Fingers crossed

A very nice miss for us in Omaha… the one night we needed the dome and it kicked in just in time. Fireworks are on baby!

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38 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

A very nice miss for us in Omaha… the one night we needed the dome and it kicked in just in time. Fireworks are on baby!

So far a massive miss in the forecast for much of Central Nebraska. Not one drop here or many other places. Other places not too far from here got several inches. It would be very disappointing if we hadn’t had our share this summer. Rain chances and amounts keep decreasing. Several places moved fireworks based on the forecast that so far is a swing and a miss. 

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Thunderstorms did not pan out at all here this afternoon. This morning we had a broken MCS move through with some thunder/lightning and rain, but clouds hung around too much all day and limited destabilization more than expected. Lame.

At least fireworks get to go off as planned! Makes up for the lack of Mother Nature's fireworks. Happy 4th of July to all Americans in this great country!

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