July 2023 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[chescowxman]

Sea breeze front passed through here at my place in Sea Isle City NJ during the past hour - our temps have dropped from 92.5 to now 80.4 in 20 minutes. Today was our 1st 90+ day here on the barrier islands of the NJ coast.

[Clinton]

Midweek storms could be strong, I just want them to drop some water.

[Timmy Supercell]

First cicadas confirmed! I guess after a week or two of solid lows over upper 60's it gets warm enough for them to pop their heads out of the dirt.

They sound really cute after not hearing them for months. 

[Black Hole]

Got a quarter inch of rain here today. Looks like more rain likely Wednesday-Thursday. 

[hawkstwelve]

Tonight and tomorrow are looking potentially interesting for some severe thunderstorms. Probably among the best shots we've had so far this season at scoring something. Although, that's not really saying much given how quiet it's been.

Heck, it already got interesting today in some spots of SD. Tornado touched down in Tabor, SD and we had some very close lightning with a large thunderstorm that blew up near the water park we were at earlier. Ended up having a lightning delay for about an hour where we couldn't swim, but it all worked out and the kids had a blast.

 

[Tom]

Happy 4th of July everyone!  As we celebrate our Nation's 247th Birthday, I just want to say how proud I am to be an American and live in this wonderful place we call the U.S.A.   Enjoy your Freedom, enjoy time with your family and friends....but most of all, enjoy the weather as much as you can today!  #1776....#'Merica

 

[Tom]

Some fun times last night…

 

 

 

 

 

[Black Hole]

Here is the EPS for my area. Great agreement on a wet period coming up, and the extended doesn't look too bad either. I added some GFS charts showing the general idea, which is basically just a good set up for an MCS in the area every day Wednesday night through Sunday. At least a few of those are bound to work out. 

 

[chescowxman]

Some spots across Southern Chester County saw over 2" of rain last night...while folks in the Northern parts saw nothing. There is a chance of more hit and miss storms later today so maybe some of the Northern folks can cash in today. Cooler today before both Wednesday and Thursday see temps in the upper 80's. Rain chances return by the weekend.

Records for today: High 101 (1919) / Low 45 (1986) / Rain 1.89" (2019)

[CentralNebWeather]

Timing of the storms tonight couldn’t be much worse. NWS Hastings highlighting this in their morning disco. 

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Initially the threat will be hail to the size of ping pong balls and wind gusts to around 60 mph...with the threat transitioning to very strong wind gusts up to 80 mph during the evening hours. Expect possible disruptions to holiday celebrations across much of the area this evening.

 

[westMJim]

Happy 4th of July. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 87/66 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 54% of the time. For today the average H/L is 82/62. The record high of 100 was set in 1897 and 1911 it was 99 in 2012. The record low of 45 was set in 1972. The record rain fall amount of 1.71” fell in 1903. On the 4th the high has reached 90 or better a total of 25 times. There has been a total of 19 times when the low did not get below 70. On the flip side there have been 5 years when the high did not reach 70 with the coldest high of 64 happening in 1970. Last year the H/L was 90/62.

[Stormy]

15 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

First cicadas confirmed! I guess after a week or two of solid lows over upper 60's it gets warm enough for them to pop their heads out of the dirt.

They sound really cute after not hearing them for months. 

I heard the first cicada here last evening too. 

[Iceresistance]

19 minutes ago, Stormy said:

I heard the first cicada here last evening too. 

I've been hearing them since June 1st

[Stormy]

On Sunday I had the 5th and last consecutive day of rainfall, but all of them were frustratingly light amounting to a total of just 0.81". I got 0.30" on Sunday from morning and again from isolated pm showers. An isolated storm that afternoon dumped heavy rain on my brother's farm about 6 mi Southeast. Nearby places last week, especially to the south, got more. I'm grateful for everything we got and was nice having a little rain  every day! It was just enough to green up the lawn's a little, but it's definitely dry yet.

BTW, my June rainfall totaled just 1.88". 

Happy Fourth of July everyone

[Stormy]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I've been hearing them since June 1st

That's probably because you're much further south. 

[james1976]

Strong thunderstorm just moved through the MN home dropping a quick 1.05". I'm heading down to IA this afternoon. Looks like it could get stormy down there later.

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Here is the EPS for my area. Great agreement on a wet period coming up, and the extended doesn't look too bad either. I added some GFS charts showing the general idea, which is basically just a good set up for an MCS in the area every day Wednesday night through Sunday. At least a few of those are bound to work out. 

 

Awesome pattern setting up. Will do great in keeping major heat swatted down to our south and west as we go on towards prime or peak summer. Truly a blessing to see drought get another possible punch in the gut. 

[OKwx2k4]

It doesn't get a whole lot better than this for most of the eastern US. I doubt everyone will win, because it just never happens that way, but just, wow. Knowing where our pattern has evolved from in 45-60 days to now is remarkable.

 

Andie looks to be the last holdout. She'll have one more good heat cycle to deal with before more lasting relief comes, then Autumn. I believe she still gets a break at the peak of TX summer, which will come as a blessing to her, while California has problems starting to develop again as ridging continues to try and set up over the lower west coast. 

1965-66, the late 70s summer's and 2009 are still top-quality guidance going forward. 

[gabel23]

Greetings from wisky dells and happy 4th! Was pretty cool driving here on I-90 first time I have ever been in that area. Meanwhile back home I don’t think I have ever seen a forecast like this before! Sucks I won’t get to see it but happy to see more rain in the forecast. 

[OKwx2k4]

Radars looking alive over KS and NE this afternoon.

Hoping everyone is enjoying their 4th! God Bless our Nation. I'm thankful every single day that I was fortunate enough to be born in the greatest nation on Earth. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Initial storms initiating to the south of my area. This forecast is probably for the storms coming out of Wyoming and Colorado now. 

[Andie]

Happy 4th guys!   
We have a hot one.  97*

Breezy. 13-18mph. Humidity 37%.  Good day to enjoy the A/C. 
OKwx2k4’s forecast sounds great. I was concerned we would see this heat straight into late Sept-Oct. A reasonable drop in temps will be most welcome and hopefully some rain will be mixed in with this  

Its really uncomfortable today. Sucks the life right out of you. My husband decided to trim shrubs today.

(Yes, he’s a glutton for punishment. )

[CentralNebWeather]

73 dew at 6 pm. Yuck. Storms should have plenty of moisture to work with when they arrive. September like temps the rest of the week. Yes. 

[clintbeed1993]

Seems like things are blowing up further northeast than they were forecasted to in Nebraska. I might have a shot of a really good MCS down in Saint Joe MO later tonight. Fingers crossed

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Seems like things are blowing up further northeast than they were forecasted to in Nebraska. I might have a shot of a really good MCS down in Saint Joe MO later tonight. Fingers crossed

A very nice miss for us in Omaha… the one night we needed the dome and it kicked in just in time. Fireworks are on baby!

[Clinton]

What the HRRR is showing has happened over and over since Spring, the storms just hit a wall as they move through KC leaving me with the crumbs.

Rainfall the last 45 days

[CentralNebWeather]

38 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

A very nice miss for us in Omaha… the one night we needed the dome and it kicked in just in time. Fireworks are on baby!

So far a massive miss in the forecast for much of Central Nebraska. Not one drop here or many other places. Other places not too far from here got several inches. It would be very disappointing if we hadn’t had our share this summer. Rain chances and amounts keep decreasing. Several places moved fireworks based on the forecast that so far is a swing and a miss. 

[CentralNebWeather]

We have relatives that live in the little town of Macon in Franklin County Nebraska, about 30 miles Southeast of me. They have had training Thunderstorms for the last several hours. My cousin says over 3” in his gauge with heavy rain continuing. 

[hawkstwelve]

Thunderstorms did not pan out at all here this afternoon. This morning we had a broken MCS move through with some thunder/lightning and rain, but clouds hung around too much all day and limited destabilization more than expected. Lame.

At least fireworks get to go off as planned! Makes up for the lack of Mother Nature's fireworks. Happy 4th of July to all Americans in this great country!

[Tom]

@Clinton, did you get anything from last night's storms?  I know KC peeps did quite well how that line bowed out just before midnight @clintbeed1993

The next 5 days looking pretty for KS/MO...

[Tom]

It's the Same Ol' Pattern....I just had to flip through the models this morning to see the evolution of atmospheric blocking a few more times as it resembles LRC Cycle #1 so vividly.  @Clinton  Remember how many times we saw this blocking up PV in Ontario or south of Hudson Bay?  I bet some parts of the Upper MW/GL's/Northwoods get a real early taste of Autumn next week.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 89/62. At GRR they reported 0.06” of rain fall. Here in MBY I recorded no rain fall. There was 86% of sunshine yesterday. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was set in 2012 the record low of 44 was set in 1972 and the record rain fall amount of 3.56” fell in 1994. The coldest maximum of 65 was set in 1956 and the warmest minimum of 82 was set in 1902. Last year the H/L was 87/70. So far this year there have not been any lows of 70 or better.

[Black Hole]

A decaying MCS moved through here this morning with just a few showers for Tulsa, but there is already another one moving in later this morning! 

[westMJim]

We will be off to Detroit later today for our annual trip for a Tiger game, yes we go in years they are good, and bad. They have been on a long losing streak on days we have gone, and I can not remember the last time they won when we went. Heck even in the years they were good we  would pick a game that they would lose. Oh well the trip is nice. I work for the West Michigan Whitecaps so we like to see some of the players that have played here play. The weather looks very warm today and there is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

[Iceresistance]

Storm chances through next week in Central Oklahoma, although infrequent

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, did you get anything from last night's storms?  I know KC peeps did quite well how that line bowed out just before midnight @clintbeed1993

The next 5 days looking pretty for KS/MO...

Only a trace, it was sickening to watch it just collapse as it entered my county.

[Bryan1117]

51 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Only a trace, it was sickening to watch it just collapse as it entered my county.

Feels like this story has been playing out so many times this summer… have to blame the current drought for repeatedly helping kill decent rain chances for most of us that are in the severe to extreme drought areas.

Thankfully we missed on the big storms last night here, even though some stratiform rain developed and made things pretty wet all evening with some cool cloud to cloud lightning bolts mixed in. Also, our neighborhood block party fireworks show still managed to happen. Honestly I hate missing out on good rains that we desperately need, however for just one night I was cheering for a swing and miss.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Only a trace, it was sickening to watch it just collapse as it entered my county.

That is really unbelievable. I think my brother in Shawnee had decent storms go through last evening. I had a whopping 0.05”. Major bust by NWS Hastings, as most of my area was forecasted to get 1-2”. From my county to the northeast, north, and northwest, all got virtually nothing. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Tom]

Just mowed the lawn and I’m soaked from sweat…most humid day of the year for me and likely the “hottest” feel.  Glad to see the DP’s will be dropping tomorrow through the weekend.

[tStacsh]

91 with a 70 dew.  That's pretty miserable for Michigan.  

[james1976]

Partly cloudy and low 70s with a nice breeze. Definitely nice refresher

[CentralNebWeather]

Still in the 60’s with a heavy cloud cover as of 3:15 pm. This is almost unheard of for July 5th. 

[Andie]

On 7/4/2023 at 12:30 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

It doesn't get a whole lot better than this for most of the eastern US. I doubt everyone will win, because it just never happens that way, but just, wow. Knowing where our pattern has evolved from in 45-60 days to now is remarkable.

 

Andie looks to be the last holdout. She'll have one more good heat cycle to deal with before more lasting relief comes, then Autumn. I believe she still gets a break at the peak of TX summer, which will come as a blessing to her, while California has problems starting to develop again as ridging continues to try and set up over the lower west coast. 

1965-66, the late 70s summer's and 2009 are still top-quality guidance going forward. 

97*. 
Dew 69
Humidity 41%

Pretty miserable out there.  But hopefully not a long stretch ahead if OKwx2k4 is right.  
Everything’s thirsty despite watering.   Pressure is 29.9 which usually gives me a headache. No exception this time either.  
Six days of 100* days. 
Heat Dome returning. 

[FV-Mike]

Storms approaching.  Hoping for some good thunder and lightning 

[Grizzcoat]

Hibbing,MN as of 3am local time this 6th of July-- has tied it's min record temp for the date of 37F.  Wouldn't be surprising to see some low spots like around Embarrass / Tower area have some patchy frost.

KHIB 060753Z AUTO 31004KT 6SM BR CLR 03/03 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP196 T00280028

2.8C = 37F

 

Nice to see the WIND CHILL of 33F!!!!

 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Hibbing,MN as of 3am local time this 6th of July-- has tied it's min record temp for the date of 37F.  Wouldn't be surprising to see some low spots like around Embarrass / Tower area have some patchy frost.

KHIB 060753Z AUTO 31004KT 6SM BR CLR 03/03 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP196 T00280028

2.8C = 37F

 

Nice to see the WIND CHILL of 33F!!!!

 

I was just looking at local wx reporting stations up there in MN and thinking to myself "woah, it's chilly!"....I guess we are on the same wave length this morning!  I bet some spots dip even lower later next week.

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 91/67 up to midnight 0.35” of rain fell. Here in MBY I recorded 0.72” of rain fall. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 104 was set in 2012 (I had 108 here in MBY that day) the record low of 41 was set in 1983. Last year the H/L was 78/64 and there was 0.22” of rain fall.

Well, our losing streak for Tiger games is still intact. They got beat real bad last night. It was a warm night at the ballpark with the temperature in Detroit of 92. On the trip over the temperature started out a 87 here in GR and it was 90 on the west side of Lansing and of course it was 92 in Detroit. Boy there is a lot of construction going on in Detroit and I 696 was really backed up. The ramp to M10 was closed so had to go all the way to Woodward. On the way back it was 88 in Detroit and it dropped down to the upper 70’s east of Lansing and was up to 82 at Lansing. There was a lot of lightning in Lansing but did not run into the rain until almost Grand Rapids.

[hawkstwelve]

We are looking at a nice little stretch of below normal temps for at least the next few days with highs mostly in the 70s, perhaps a couple low 80s later this weekend. It's felt really refreshing already with Sioux Falls bottoming out a fairly chilly 48 degrees this morning.

Nice change from the much warmer than normal temps we've been experiencing ad nauseam this season.