Jump to content

July 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

The official H/L yesterday was 82/65 there was a reported 0.01” of rain fall at GRR. There were 9 CDD’s and the sun was out a reported 39% of the time. So far for today the overnight low in MBY was 58 and the current reading is 64 with clear skies. The average H/L for today is 83/62 the record high of 99 was set in 2012 the record low of 45 was set in 1894 and the record rain fall amount of 1.66” fell in 1994. Last year the day was average with a high of 83 and a low of 62.

 The next 7 days has tomorrow looking on the cool side with a chance of rain. The rest of the week looks mostly warm with temperatures in the low to mid 80’s for highs and lows in the upper 50’s to the mid 60’s on the warmer nights. So all in all a very typical summer week. On a side note and I know some will disagree with me but once again this summer has seen very few big time thunderstorms for most of southwest Michigan.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another warm one out there today after yesterday peaking again in the upper 80's we should see temps a little cooler today but still very humid. Rain chances will be there almost anytime through Sunday night. Best chances will be later today and again Sunday. While Southern Chester County has been wet of late....here in Northern and Western Chesco we have yet to see any measurable rain here in July!
Records for today: High 98 degrees (1900) / Low 49 (1940) / Rain 2.23" (1907)
image.png.4af4f9de0c20d67df465df6247443e44.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Tom said:

@gabel23 @Bryan1117...the radar this morning looks interesting for your area to get clipped...the bowing line on the southern extent might do the trick.

 

1.gif

Still in Wisconsin but sounds like another inch or two fell in my area!! Loving the pattern switch and long ways to go to get out of this drought but it’s a start! Some sad news though coming out of my hometown; they were getting ready to pour some concrete on our new elevator and lightning struck. Sounds like up to 6 were affected. Hoping they turn out to be ok. 

  • Like 3
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No rain for me this morning, but that was a nice looking line towards OKC. Some scattered showers moving in from the northwest now. Models showing another strong MCS in here tonight but something tells me its going to be another 1/4" with a few rumbles of thunder lol. But hey, it keeps the heat away. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Tom said:

@gabel23 @Bryan1117...the radar this morning looks interesting for your area to get clipped...the bowing line on the southern extent might do the trick.

 

1.gif

Did pretty good this morning and early afternoon with 0.90” of rain in my backyard. I did miss out on most of the heavier thunderstorm activity, however I am very happy with the additional rainfall… things are finally starting to green back up just a bit around here - keep it coming Mother Nature!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This week is the 87th  anniversary of the greatest heat wave in Michigan history. At Grand Rapids the heat wave started on July 7th with a high of 98 and 11 of the next 12 days had highs of 90 or better and there were 6 days of 100 or better including the all time record high of 108 on July 13th

Take a look at  what Michigan suffered through in July 1936. All of southern Michigan and much of northern Michigan sweltered with seven days in a row over 100 degrees. Mio, MI had Michigan's hottest temperature ever recorded at 112 degrees on July 13, 1936. Take a look at the high temperatures between July 7th and the 14th

Detroit 104, 102, 102, 101, 100, 102, 104

Flint  108, 105, 102, 104, 105, 108, 105

Saginaw  107, 104, 107, 107, 105, 111

Ann Arbor  102, 100, 100, 90, 103, 103, 103

Grand Rapids 98, 101, 101, 102, 99, 106, 108, 102

Kalamazoo  101, 104, 102, 103, 102, 105, 109, 108, 103

For some reason Lansing was cooler with highs of

91,98,96,98,99,99,101. And Holland had highs just in the upper 90’s  Muskegon only had highs in the 80’s on most days.

According to MSU, 364 died in Detroit during the 1936 heat wave. In Michigan, 570 people died during that week due to heat. Nationally 5000 died in what is still the nation's most intense heat wave.

We haven't had a heat wave even come close to the torrid heat of July 1936.

The 30 year average for the number of days of 90 or better in southern lower Michigan are Grand Rapids and Lansing 10, Holland 9, Muskegon 4,  To the east Detroit 13, Flint 11 and Saginaw 8. So far this year Grand Rapids and Lansing are at 9 days of 90 or better. Muskegon has the lead with 10 Holland has 7. On the east side of the state Detroit and Flint have only 2 and Saginaw has 4 so far.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 80/58 there was a reported 0.01” of rain fall. There were 4 CDD’s the total since June 1st in now at 218 that is +8 so the summer has been warmer than average so far. Last year at this time there were 222 so this summer so far is cooler than last year. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was set in 1936 and the record low of 46 was set in 1992. The coldest maximum of 68 was set in 2015, 2004 and 2000. Last year the H/L was 81/62.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Woke up to the sound of some light/mod rain showers as I had my window open and heard the sounds of rain drops falling off the trees on my deck.  Love these type of summer mornings.  Another 0.28" of moisture but more importantly, the southern sections of the Chicago area got a good dose of rain and so did C & S IL....the farmers must be stoked!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yet another tiny rainfall event here yesterday afternoon amounting to 0.16". Some rumbling thunder to the south last evening, but sadly that missed. At least it wasn't drying off. I'm looking forward to next week when it's looking more active. Hopefully can get some ring of fire action going across this area by midweek. 

  • Storm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Woke up to the sound of some light/mod rain showers as I had my window open and heard the sounds of rain drops falling off the trees on my deck.  Love these type of summer mornings.  Another 0.28" of moisture but more importantly, the southern sections of the Chicago area got a good dose of rain and so did C & S IL....the farmers must be stoked!

Farmers are stoked and hot dry Texas is jealous! 🤠

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I got a .50 surprise  rain yesterday.  I must say the drought  monitor  for wapello  county now is simply  not accurate now. Since June 1st Ive recorded  4.88". Since June 19th Ive recorded 4.03".  You could say the past 3 weeks are actually  above normal rainfall, coupled  with the cool temperatures the droughts affects are chsnging. Here are some pics. And if gfs is accurate  we seem to keep the ball rolling next 10 days!

20230708_075736.jpg

20230707_125826.jpg

Screenshot_20230708_073638_Gallery.jpg

tempFileForShare_20230707-193041_228846841235772.jpg

Screenshot_20230707_233441_RadarScope.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I got a .50 surprise  rain yesterday.  I must say the drought  monitor  for wapello  county now is simply  not accurate now. Since June 1st Ive recorded  4.88". Since June 19th Ive recorded 4.03".  You could say the past 3 weeks are actually  above normal rainfall, coupled  with the cool temperatures the droughts affects are chsnging. Here are some pics. And if gfs is accurate  we seem to keep the ball rolling next 10 days!

20230708_075736.jpg

20230707_125826.jpg

Screenshot_20230708_073638_Gallery.jpg

tempFileForShare_20230707-193041_228846841235772.jpg

Screenshot_20230707_233441_RadarScope.jpg

Wow! I'm so happy for you all up there! It's so awesome seeing the beautiful green grass after these years of hard drought.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Over the next few days, going to see a good solid cool down taking shape over my state (OK). With it, looks like good and widespread rainfall is going to be in the works over the next 24 hours or so  as well. Turning into a really beautiful summer here after a few solid rounds of pure nasty hot weather.

I believe our pattern is influenced by two things pretty heavily at this time....

1. El Niño.

El Nino is definitely influencing our atmosphere over the central and Eastern US, however, the typical pattern have been slow to manifest due to an uncooperative N Pac AND lack of a Bermuda High upstream. 

2. I believe that some of our increased precip over the central Plains and southern Plains, along with heightened severe weather this late spring and summer has been aided by Colorado going through its wettest winter in history. All that snow/cold stored there plus the added moisture, I believe can and has "seeded" storm systems out of CO. There were places recently still reporting snow OTG from last season and "pink snow", which is algae growing in snow. Add a Hudson Bay vortex at various times to pull Gulf moisture to match and voila. Drought buster.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

97 today. Expecting 92 tomorrow.  
I like that trend as tomorrow also comes with a 40% chance of rain.  
That’s downright civilized.  

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Andie said:

97 today. Expecting 92 tomorrow.  
I like that trend as tomorrow also comes with a 40% chance of rain.  
That’s downright civilized.  

Looking ahead, it looks like you'll be right on the cool/warm line for the next half-month. 

What is encouraging is where we have a massive eastern Pac warm pool developing. If I had to attribute anything to staving off wall-to-wall heat here in the CONUS, it would be this.....

ssta.daily.current-1.thumb.png.023e22ce2743621380ec99b795f789af.png

I have a ton of belief that heat will be hard to come by over the center of the US downstream of the 2023 incarnation of "The Blob". It was a huge influence on our weather in 2013-2015. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That’s music to my ears!   

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a beautiful cool morning here as temps have dipped into the upper 50's (59F) and my windows are open letting in that refreshing air.  I can't help but think what a different story it is back in AZ as they are preparing for what could be a Historic stretch of extremely HOT weather next week.  I feel for them as it really puts a ton of stress on the grid and people in general, not to mention the animals, etc.

Can you imagine this temp just past 3:00am??

Screen Shot 2023-07-09 at 5.13.12 AM.png

 

I just knew deep inside that nature had to balance out the weather out in the SW.  They've had it easy for what was a long stretch of ideal weather that lasted for weeks and months.  Now comes the time where you have to hunker down and stay cool!  The Monsoon will fire up soon...I see a change coming in the not so distant future as the 2nd half of the month will bring chances of moisture.

 

 

Record Heat Wave for Southwest 7_9_23.webp

  • Sun 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 72/61 that high was 10° below average. There was a trace of rain fall (here in MBY I recorded 0.26”) Looks like I am in a wet spot at this time.  There was 19% of possible sunshine. The highest wind gust was 21MPH out of the north. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was set in 1936 and the record low of 48 was set in 1942 and 1961. The record rain fall amount of 1.34” fell in 1926. Last year the H/L was 80/55.

The next week looks to be rather typical for mid summer. Tomorrow will be the warmest day and the rest of the week will see highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s and lows in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. There will several chances of showers the week as a whole will average a little below average temperature wise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I got a .50 surprise  rain yesterday.  I must say the drought  monitor  for wapello  county now is simply  not accurate now. Since June 1st Ive recorded  4.88". Since June 19th Ive recorded 4.03".  You could say the past 3 weeks are actually  above normal rainfall, coupled  with the cool temperatures the droughts affects are chsnging. Here are some pics. And if gfs is accurate  we seem to keep the ball rolling next 10 days!

20230708_075736.jpg

20230707_125826.jpg

Screenshot_20230708_073638_Gallery.jpg

tempFileForShare_20230707-193041_228846841235772.jpg

Screenshot_20230707_233441_RadarScope.jpg

That middle map with the red stripe through Iowa actually is just one run of 'forecast' total precipitation by the GFS. First I thought it was a radar estimation of what has already accumulated and noticed that wouldn't be accurate. 

JFYI, here are some other maps of radar estimated accumulated precipitation in the time period stated on the images.

 

July 08, 2023 14-Day Observed Precipitation.png

sector_midwest__network_WFO__src_mrms__opt_acc__usdm_no__ptype_c__sdate_2023-06-23__edate_2023-07-08__cmap_terrain_r___r_43__dpi_100.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could be a pretty stormy PM across much of the area. Hopefully spots that have already seen more than 5" of rain will not be as hard hit today. Rain should arrive in Chester County after 11am and be east of the county by no later than 7pm this evening. The daily rain record for today set back in 1935 could be in jeopardy today.
Records for today: High 103 degrees (1936) / Low 48 degrees (1984) / Rain 2.00" (1935)
image.png.2b04593d815f1c2a25a4a4f542acfe88.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting out with a small shower. 
Currently 75.  High of 92 today. 

That’s awesome for high summer in Texas.  But we need a good deal more.  
Loving it! 

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 I looked up some stats and was surprised as to how cold yesterday was at some locations. The high of 72° at Grand Rapids was the 3rd coldest reading for any July 8th At Houghton Lake the high of 65 was the 3rd coldest maximum, At Alpena the high of 67 was the 5th coldest at Saginaw it was the 4th coldest.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NDFD max high temps only shows one day of the next seven being above normal - tomorrow at around 90 degrees (+5). Otherwise, we are ranging from -6 to -4 departures through next Saturday. This is after running solidly below normal temps since July 4th (-3, -9, -11, -12, -8). Both the GFS and ECMWF are also showing between 1-2 inches of rainfall here over the next week.

Really loving this change in the pattern! I have a feeling things will be flipping back to warm/dry by the end of the month so we're going to enjoy it while it lasts!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Tuesday night/Wednesday MCS is trending farther south.  At least the northern half of Iowa may get nothing again.

  • Sad 1
  • Sick 1
  • Facepalm 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Tuesday night/Wednesday MCS is trending farther south.  At least the northern half of Iowa may get nothing again.

Yes I noticed, and it would be our luck for it to mostly miss even here. I don't want the potential severe wind part of it though, but that probably will pass south or southwest of me anyway. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The official H/L yesterday at GR was 81/55 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 77% of the time. There were 3 CDD’s and the highest wind gust was 14 MPH out of the NW. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 102 was in 1936 the record low of 48 was in 1890 and 1963. The record rain fall of 1.48” fell in 1942. The coolest maximum of 67 was in 1945 and the warmest minimum of 78 was in 1936. Last year the H/L was 83/52.

Today looks to be the warmest day this week with highs in the mid 80’s the rest of the week looks to have highs mostly in the mid 70’s to low 80’s and lows in the upper 50’s to low 60’s there will be several chances of showers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A few models that shifted south with the Tuesday night MCS have shifted back north.

12z HRRR

image.thumb.png.a628a1db5a60d4001b7a33f28c26d612.png

3k NAM

image.thumb.png.675b6725a76fe7968c0332496218d108.png

  • Like 4

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’ll see 95 today with 55% humidity.
Eck! 

  • Sun 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

98-100 for the next week.  Chance of scattered storms hitting DFW area. Likely to stay north of me. 
For my part it’s just awful. Hot, humid, and really tough of everyone.  Humidity running between 45-55 %

This is the part of summers everywhere I hate.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...