August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m driving to Miami today, flying out tomorrow. Tampa closed at midnight, trapping me here.

If I were that close I’d probably drive up to the FL big bend for an eyewall intercept, haha.

[MossMan]

Biggest bust since the infamous windstorm prediction of 2016!

Two rumbles of Thunder around 4:30ish, and a grand total of .03” of rainfall. Good lord! 

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Explosive development way east around Moses Lake.   Hope that doesn't mean the best dynamics are shifting east already. 

Matches what NWS Spokane said in last night's AFD, around the same timing at least.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Showers continue. Up to 0.14" and counting.

[RentonHill]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Important changes in Idalia’s IR presentation over the last 20mins. RI will begin shortly.

You think we care about a life threatening rapidly intensifying major hurricane right now?? We just had a minor convection event totally bust on us. Show some compassion bro 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.05” of drizzle overnight.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

You think we care about a life threatening rapidly intensifying major hurricane right now?? We just had a minor convection event totally bust on us. Show some compassion bro 

Kek

[LowerGarfield]

Getting really dark here and the storm clouds are looking really big to the south and east.

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

0.05” of drizzle overnight.

Anything is better than nothing. Right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Anything is better than nothing. Right?

Oh yeah, brings us up to 0.10" on the month. But not all light rain is created equal, this will be very beneficial falling slowly overnight between two cloudy and cool days. 

[LowerGarfield]

Already hearing thunder getting closer.

[LowerGarfield]

Raining now. The main storms will be later this afternoon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Already hearing thunder getting closer.

Blessings on the way. 

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Blessings on the way. 

As long as it doesn't include large hail I'm happy.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS focuses the Thursday system in Oregon while the ECMWF focuses the heaviest rain in the Seattle area.  

The 12Z GFS also brings a robust system through on Sunday.   The 12Z GEM has that ULL wandering offshore longer and is more ridgy on Sunday but looks on track to bring it into the PNW on Monday.

[Cold Snap]

Had some rain but never heard any thunder here unfortunately. Only picked up 0.04”.

[the_convergence_zone]

Im just amazed by how good the HRRR was for this event in Puget Sound. The current radar looks exactly like the +48h HRRR forecast from 2 days ago. The Euro ensembles never converged on the rainier solution and the drier setup ended up winning. Haven’t had time to look into exactly what the difference between the two possibilities. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Im just amazed by how good the HRRR was for this event in Puget Sound. The current radar looks exactly like the +48h HRRR forecast from 2 days ago. The Euro ensembles never converged on the rainier solution and the drier setup ended up winning. Haven’t had time to look into exactly what the difference between the two possibilities. 

Tired of seeing the Euro constantly outclassed. 

[LowerGarfield]

Saw a flash and then a large crack of thunder shook our house 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really encouraging late summer model runs. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Now up to 0.23" for the day (and counting)....

[LowerGarfield]

Sun is out, gotta get that daytime heating going. So far only .04. We'll see what my total is later.

[Tyler Mode]

A pretty incredible night at Rainier. 

The nearly full moon above a bed of low clouds, overtopped with thunderstorms heavy with lightning.

Unfortunately, most of the lightning I could see and photograph was intra-cloud but it was all awe-insipring!

[Phil]

This might be the most incredible storm surge footage I’ve ever seen (Hurricane Ian, Fort Meyers FL). Full 9+ hours of the event.

Context: A couple and their 2 dogs were inside the pink house when it got swept away, and they all miraculously survived. I saw the guy park the car and go inside, and upon first seeing the house implode, I was certain I’d just watched him die. Later the guy who set up this camera interviewed him..it’s really something.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Rain Train has been moving up the islands all morning, wonder if it will ever drift this way......Still nothing more than occasional sprinkles though it does feel like the clouds have thickened up

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Rain Train has been moving up the islands all morning, wonder if it will ever drift this way......Still nothing more than occasional sprinkles though it does feel like the clouds have thickened up

Rain Train is chugging its way over Vancouver. Up to 0.35" and counting.

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Im just amazed by how good the HRRR was for this event in Puget Sound. The current radar looks exactly like the +48h HRRR forecast from 2 days ago. The Euro ensembles never converged on the rainier solution and the drier setup ended up winning. Haven’t had time to look into exactly what the difference between the two possibilities. 

FWIW it did a pretty horrendous job with our event down here the other morning. Definitely was outperformed by the NAM, GFS, Euro, and RGEM alike.

[MossMan]

Such a massive bust. We need rain!!!! Think I was supposed be up to at least .75” by now with this system. .03” is not going to cut it. 

[MossMan]

I did get to enjoy the lightning crackle on the AM dial this morning listening to Brock and Salk! About as good as we can ask for around here anymore. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Some good looking 12z runs. Nice to see the Euro and GFS start to align a bit on us getting some decent stratiform precip down this way on Thursday. Only 48 hours out now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Meanwhile another cool and cloudy day with some drizzle in spots. 67 currently after a low of 61. It is kind of remarkable how warm lows have stayed even with a drizzly marine layer around. PDX only fell to 65 this morning which is getting into the top tier for warm mins at this point of the season.

[MossMan]

8 years ago today was the biggest non fall/winter windstorm of my lifetime I believe. Sucks I wasn’t at home to experience it but it was fun jumping those large waves at Park Lake! 

[Meatyorologist]

Things might get interesting again soon.

[Deweydog]

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Things might get interesting again soon.

Is the HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR showing some goodies? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice area of drizzle moved in on the last half hour. Temp down to 66. So cool to see in the middle of the day in August. A rare bird in recent summers.

[RentonHill]

37 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Things might get interesting again soon.

Looks like rapid intensification over the warm Waters of elliott bay….

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Stopped for now. 0.42" for the day and 0.90" for the month.

[LowerGarfield]

Clouding up here again...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice area of drizzle moved in on the last half hour. Temp down to 66. So cool to see in the middle of the day in August. A rare bird in recent summers.

Some say you are a rare bird.

[Cascadia_Wx]

EPS beefed up precip amounts a bit for Thursday. We’re in the home stretch now so good to see.

[jcmcgaffey]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

AQI is back into the good category out here and appears to be slowly falling around Seattle as well.   There will be a decent SW wind this afternoon per the ECMWF which should clear what is left out.    Where do you find a smoke model that goes out through the weekend?

Here you go. The forecast is actually looking a little better. This morning it showed us back into orange by Friday. 
https://enviwa.ecology.wa.gov/home/text/421#Forecast

[Meatyorologist]

Zipper line elevated convection. That's not common in these parts. Might very well get a thunderstorm soon in Seattle.

[jcmcgaffey]

That continuous train of moisture is impressive. Some locations under it are up to and over an inch of rain. 

[Phishy Wx]

must be a 'dry line' or something coming thru.  it is raining though, lightly.  but winds have to be gusting 45-50mph, IMBY

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

This might be the most incredible storm surge footage I’ve ever seen (Hurricane Ian, Fort Meyers FL). Full 9+ hours of the event.

Context: A couple and their 2 dogs were inside the pink house when it got swept away, and they all miraculously survived. I saw the guy park the car and go inside, and upon first seeing the house implode, I was certain I’d just watched him die. Later the guy who set up this camera interviewed him..it’s really something.

 

Sorry, Phil. I am not going to watch a 9 hour YouTube video.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Such a massive bust. We need rain!!!! Think I was supposed be up to at least .75” by now with this system. .03” is not going to cut it. 

Welcome to Eastern WA!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

EPS beefed up precip amounts a bit for Thursday. We’re in the home stretch now so good to see.

Feeling blessed.

[Phishy Wx]

rain needs to happen more so where the fires are active so the region can collectively clean out

[Cold Snap]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Zipper line elevated convection. That's not common in these parts. Might very well get a thunderstorm soon in Seattle.

That is quite the thin band of rain.