August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

PNW is the only safe zone in this pattern.

The 18z GFS is nothing short of a nightmare to open September almost everywhere else. Couldn’t get any worse.

18Z GFS is quite dry out here too for the next 15 days... but we definitely won't have heat.    Looks quite pleasant overall but does build in the warmth in the 10-15 day period.   I am sure the next run will be totally different in the long range.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

Got some showers popping up here in Bellingham

[Meatyorologist]

Completely shafted in NE Seattle, with no measurable rain since midnight. Oh well... A calm 70F partly cloudy afternoon. Nice lighting.

Next chance of rain comes Sunday.

[Omegaraptor]

High of 73 forecast in Redding tomorrow with rain. Average high there currently is 96. 
 

Should really help with the Smith River and Happy Camp fires. Although it has been a pretty quiet fire season otherwise it is nice they do not have to wait until November this year. 

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Got some showers popping up here in Bellingham

Satellite has the look of an arctic outbreak with clouds clearing first down the Sound with NE flow.

[TT-SEA]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

68 or 69 seems like highest potential today.    

SEA did end up with 69 for a high today.

[TT-SEA]

If today does end up at 69/59 at SEA then the monthly average ends up at 69.90 and that is the 6th warmest month in history at SEA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem got 0.62” of rain. 

[Front Ranger]

41 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

High of 73 forecast in Redding tomorrow with rain. Average high there currently is 96. 
 

Should really help with the Smith River and Happy Camp fires. Although it has been a pretty quiet season otherwise it is nice they do not have to wait until November this year. 

Didn't Redding get soaked last week too?

[Omegaraptor]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Didn't Redding get soaked last week too?

They did! Two very early rainfalls for them in quick succession.

[MossMan]

Windy! 

[TT-SEA]

Picked up .10 here in the last couple hours... still less than the ECMWF showed but did manage to overcome offshore flow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dang I caught 5 trout on consecutive casts on the McKenzie right before the rain hit. Great day to paddle up to Harrisburg. 

[Front Ranger]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dang I caught 5 trout on consecutive casts on the McKenzie right before the rain hit. Great day to paddle up to Harrisburg. 

Not bad, though it's no 23 tuna...

[ChristheElohim]

64° for high today here at Eastside Tacoma 

[Cold Snap]

Starting to notice some leaves change colors and fall off the trees in my neighborhood.

[Deweydog]

I guess this is why they call it the Pacific NorthWET! Lol!

[Timmy Supercell]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I guess this is why they call it the Pacific NorthWET! Lol!

Pacific NorthWEBBED 

[Jakewestsalem]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dang I caught 5 trout on consecutive casts on the McKenzie right before the rain hit. Great day to paddle up to Harrisburg. 

UP to the north, but downriver!

Should have put in above Hayden and run the rapids. Always fun in a drift boat

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Not bad, though it's no 23 tuna...

Catch and release section too. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is quite dry out here too for the next 15 days... but we definitely won't have heat.    Looks quite pleasant overall but does build in the warmth in the 10-15 day period.   I am sure the next run will be totally different in the long range.  

At least the only modeled warmth out there is phantom stuff on rogue operational runs.

Out here it’s seemingly endless 90s and low 100s across guidance. No disagreement in the long range, just red paint.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least the only modeled warmth out there is phantom stuff on rogue operational runs.

Out here it’s seemingly endless 90s and low 100s across guidance. No disagreement in the long range, just red paint.

Finally some sustained above normal warmth for your region.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Finally some sustained above normal warmth for your region.

I will say, it was the “nicest” summer here since at least 2014, perhaps 2009. That ugly gulf airmass stayed in the Deep South this year, which doesn’t happen often these days.

Of course we’ll pay for it next year. Post-niño summers are the absolute worst, with only a couple exceptions in the last century.

[Phil]

A weenie can dream  

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1697319042023891353?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem got 0.62” of rain. 

Real deal.

[FroYoBro]

Raining again. I can’t believe how many hours of rain we have gotten today. Very unusual for the last day of August.
 

Jesus sends his blessings to Jesse and Andrew. 

[Phishy Wx]

decent rain earlier today.  

[Timmy Supercell]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

A weenie can dream  

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1697319042023891353?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

A decent early winter, but dull/warm late. Mixed bag Spring, and a cloudy summer.

But, Summer 2024 will probably just be another hot one.

[Doinko]

Up to 0.65" of rain, really nice event with it raining all day. High of only 63 so far too

[Phil]

36 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

A decent early winter, but dull/warm late. Mixed bag Spring, and a cloudy summer.

But, Summer 2024 will probably just be another hot one.

El Niño winters tend to peak in February in our region. December tends to be warm/bland except in special years. Usually some kind of blocking episode in January as well.

El Niño + cold December almost always indicates a cold/snowy winter. And locally, mod/strong niño + warm November has always been followed by a snowier than average winter. Could be a fluky stat but it worked during the last super niño in 2015/16.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A nice day of rain and a nice night of college football. Big win for Utah and the Pac12 in the final season for the league.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Nice to see Oregon finally scoring in the rain department.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Don't look now, but it seems that our old friend Mr. Smoke is coming back soon.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Don't look now, but it seems that our old friend Mr. Smoke is coming back soon.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Don't look now, but it seems that our old friend Mr. Smoke is coming back soon.

Tim said the smoke was done for the year! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim said the smoke was done for the year! 

Dark brown colors over North Bend on that map, too. Though if you go to firesmoke.ca and zoom in and play the animation, those dark blobs do move around some. Still the overall theme is nasty with patches of extra-super nasty.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Dark brown colors over North Bend on that map, too. Though if you go to firesmoke.ca and zoom in and play the animation, those dark blobs do move around some. Still the overall theme is nasty with patches of extra-super nasty.

He's preparing his notes right now on how to respond to the situation.

[Timmy Supercell]

41 minutes ago, Phil said:

El Niño winters tend to peak in February in our region. December tends to be warm/bland except in special years. Usually some kind of blocking episode in January as well.

El Niño + cold December almost always indicates a cold/snowy winter. And locally, mod/strong niño + warm November has always been followed by a snowier than average winter. Could be a fluky stat but it worked during the last super niño in 2015/16.

I just realized, February is the odd month out in the time I have lived in Kentucky so far, Dec/Jan/March have each delivered cold/snow here. The weather becomes a lot more "fair" in February but maybe next winter changes that.

[Tanis Leach]

Conditions for the day in Sherwood: 0.90" so far, 63.5F for the high, 59.9F for the low. Coldest high I've seen in August. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I just realized, February is the odd month out in the time I have lived in Kentucky so far, Dec/Jan/March have each delivered cold/snow here. The weather becomes a lot more "fair" in February but maybe next winter changes that.

I tell my wife that February is the snow month.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Conditions for the day in Sherwood: 0.90" so far, 63.5F for the high, 59.9F for the low. Coldest high I've seen in August. 

Good to see y'all posting a decent amount. I like to see solid representation from the south valley and you're very good at understanding the microclimates down here.

[Skagit Weather]

57 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Don't look now, but it seems that our old friend Mr. Smoke is coming back soon.

The good news looking at the longer range range Canadian smoke forecast model and the HRRR is that it doesn't look particularly thick (especially at ground level) and should mostly fully clear out by Sunday afternoon.

[TacomaWx]

Average temp really took a hit with the last 4 days of the month. August finished +2.9F about 0.7 degrees cooler than last august…and 1.1 degrees shy of the warmest month July 2015. 

[iFred]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

A weenie can dream  

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1697319042023891353?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

It took ten years, but I might have to finally ban you this winter.

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, iFred said:

It took ten years, but I might have to finally ban you this winter.

Don’t worry I’m not in the sadist club. T** revoked my membership years ago.

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I just realized, February is the odd month out in the time I have lived in Kentucky so far, Dec/Jan/March have each delivered cold/snow here. The weather becomes a lot more "fair" in February but maybe next winter changes that.

Considering last winter was the warmest on record (and the previous one was nothing special either) you’ve got a lot of room for improvement.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem ended in a tie with 2017 for hottest August ever. Ended it with a high of 64 at that. 

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

The good news looking at the longer range range Canadian smoke forecast model and the HRRR is that it doesn't look particularly thick (especially at ground level) and should mostly fully clear out by Sunday afternoon.

I feel like  the smoke posts were sort of trolling.    If you run the loop there is a patch of smoke that is quickly lifted north Saturday night into Sunday morning with that marine push... but its completely gone by Sunday afternoon.  We have onshore flow and showers and plenty of clouds from Sunday - Tuesday per the ECMWF.    It won't be smoky.

Also given all the rain yesterday in OR and farther south in CA today and tomorrow... the amount of smoke being produced at the sources will be way down and the models will need to catch up.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

AQI is in the 50–60 range this morning. If there is any smoke, it is mostly aloft.

[TT-SEA]

The Sunday system has been sort of fading in the models... but still looks like a decent marine push as the ULL to the south gets ejected inland.   ECMWF shows another system on Tuesday then turned more ridgy.    The 00Z EPS also looked more ridgy after that mid week system for the rest of the run.   

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

AQI is in the 50–60 range this morning. If there is any smoke, it is mostly aloft.

In the 20s and 30s around the Seattle area.   The entire area looks good though.