August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Dave]

Took a look on ACIS and this has pretty much been a historic summer in Eugene in the amount of consistent heat. We've wrecked the previous record of 80+ consecutive days by 12 so far with several more to go. 44 consecutive days over 80 (today was over 80.) Previous record was 32 in 1967. We'll probably get to around 49 or 50. Climate change has definitely occurred in the Eugenes. 

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, Dave said:

Took a look on ACIS and this has pretty much been a historic summer in Eugene in the amount of consistent heat. We've wrecked the previous record of 80+ consecutive days by 12 so far with several more to go. 44 consecutive days over 80 (today was over 80.) Previous record was 32 in 1967. We'll probably get to around 49 or 50. Climate change has definitely occurred in the Eugenes. 

 

 

It's just so constant.

[Deweydog]

29 minutes ago, Dave said:

Took a look on ACIS and this has pretty much been a historic summer in Eugene in the amount of consistent heat. We've wrecked the previous record of 80+ consecutive days by 12 so far with several more to go. 44 consecutive days over 80 (today was over 80.) Previous record was 32 in 1967. We'll probably get to around 49 or 50. Climate change has definitely occurred in the Eugenes. 

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Crazy moisture, late night thunderstorms.

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Crazy moisture, late night thunderstorms.

Hope so. That's a great pattern for wet thunderstorms.

[NWbyNW]

Here is the current AQI.  We will check in on this later through the week.  Smoke is returning, but at lower levels for much of Western Washington... I'm not too sure yet.  

[The Blob]

We're going to have a fire drill at work tonight, gonna be a nice 58 degrees for it.

[Phil]

So bored with summer. Please Yellowstone, do your thing.

[Phil]

On 8/23/2023 at 2:49 AM, Tanis Leach said:

So I don't know if this is your intent, but how the post comes across is that the only evidence you have to counter the 3 storms existence is "it shouldn't happen where it did therefore it didn't". If this is a misconception and you have a counter showing the structure of the storms, I would like to see it. The 1975 storm at the 44N 151W dot had a ship report that confirmed it was in fact, a hurricane, and the dvorak numbers were at least close to the actual numbers (CPHC already began Dvorak numbers on it after their meteorologists concluded it was tropical about 1-2 days before that point) and is included in the NHC database, 2016's Alex, while named, was beyond doubt by the NHC to be a hurricane. The 2006 storm, has a general consensus that it was either tropical or subtropical (with one citing 2005's hurricane Vince as a good analog for composition comparison, which while warmer than what this storm was in, developed in temperatures percieved to be too cold to develop a TC), and FSU's ATS department also concluding it was. The paper I cited shows how it not only was tropical, but how a tropical system could survive over 18C water if conditions are perfect. Even though the NHC never classified it, one of their senior meteorologists at the time, James Franklin said on Dr. Jeff Master's blog (naming the storm Thingimabobbercane): "The convective structure resembled a tropical, rather than subtropical cyclone, and the radius of maximum winds (based on QuikSCAT) was very close to the center, also more typical of tropical cyclones. It was, for most of its existence, under an upper low, typical of subtropical cyclones. However, it was developing a modest mid to upper lever warm core, moving toward tropical structure. So structurally, on balance, it was more tropical than subtropical."

In all fairness, he did also explain that the 18C waters led to it not being classified, because it wasn't the operational definition, but recountered later by saying Nature is not interested in our classification of cyclones. 

For the 54N 138W dot, which you appear to directly refrence with the 20F below temperatures, I'm explaining what the NHC thinks, and even I question it in the post you quoted twice (though the wording appears poor in hindsight), as if we use other analogs in similar latitudes, it would be on the quicker side (ex: 12 hours), so the 51N 142W dot would be the last one it should be considered "tropical" (officially it should be tropical transitioning into EC). Either way, I do think it should be looked at. 

The NHC does not consider it to be a hurricane. A ship cannot confirm whether it’s a tropical or subtropical/extratropical system. Neither can the dvorak system. That’s why it is un-named.

Many subtropical systems have tropical characteristics. Many also have hurricane force winds and tight cores. That is entirely normal, and can exist over much cooler water.

But that doesn’t make them *tropical* systems, driven by warm-rain processes. Need a unique set of conditions/thermodynamic processes to meet said criteria. Unless they are *purely* tropical in that regard, they are, by definition, subtropical. It’s a definition/classification you can disagree with, but that is the convention as of now.

 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

So bored with summer. Please Yellowstone, do your thing.

You start drinking earlier every day... you must be buzzing 24 hours a day at this point.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF showed a significant rain event for Seattle eastward next Tuesday into Wednesday like its 12Z run.   This would be spectacular.    It also would mean the 70+ streak at SEA would end just short of the 2017 record as the timing of the rain on Tuesday would keep that day in the 60s.    Also worth noting the 00Z ECMWF showed another heat wave to follow over Labor Day weekend.  

 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You start drinking earlier every day... you must be buzzing 24 hours a day at this point.  

Not yet today. I’m going dry when I get home though, old habits starting to creep back in.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not yet today. I’m going dry when I get home though, old habits starting to creep back in.

I love drinking but had to stop when I went to far with it and then had suffer withdrawal from it I might do one every now and then but not the way I used to morning to night everyday those withdrawals are no joke.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

Other than it might be an overall dry event looks like a pretty decent show for parts of Western Washington and Western Oregon early tomorrow.

[the_convergence_zone]

Monday night is probably going to be up there with the all-time great Puget Sound thunderstorm outbreaks of the last decade. 
 

Why am I so confident? Because I’ll be in Minnesota and these outbreaks seem to always happen when I’m gone…May 2017, Sept 2019, etc etc 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Monday night is probably going to be up there with the all-time great Puget Sound thunderstorm outbreaks of the last decade. 
 

Why am I so confident? Because I’ll be in Minnesota and these outbreaks seem to always happen when I’m gone…May 2017, Sept 2019, etc etc 

What's in Minnesota?   Family or work?

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

The NHC does not consider it to be a hurricane. A ship cannot confirm whether it’s a tropical or subtropical/extratropical system. Neither can the dvorak system. That’s why it is un-named.

Many subtropical systems have tropical characteristics. Many also have hurricane force winds and tight cores. That is entirely normal, and can exist over much cooler water.

But that doesn’t make them *tropical* systems, driven by warm-rain processes. Need a unique set of conditions/thermodynamic processes to meet said criteria. Unless they are *purely* tropical in that regard, they are, by definition, subtropical. It’s a definition/classification you can disagree with, but that is the convention as of now.

 

Also re: hurricane Alex, the waters it traveled over were 73°F, and the tropical upper troposphere was exceptionally cold/deep, enough to fuel exceptional instability. And it just so happened to exist in a zonal wind moat.

Those conditions don’t exist off the coast of Alaska (concurrently) at any time of year. You’re looking at water temps in the 50s or below. Not to mention the in-situ oceanic conditions (strong EBC) were unfavorable in 1975, fueled by a prolific 3-year La Niña.

It is exceedingly unlikely to have been a purely tropical system, as the NHC recognizes.

[the_convergence_zone]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What's in Minnesota?   Family or work?

Work (conference). But also stopping by Milwaukee to see my parents. 

[Phishy Wx]

44 IMBY this morning feels crisp.  Not bad except for the smoke haze creeping back in

[Cloud]

55 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF showed a significant rain event for Seattle eastward next Tuesday into Wednesday like its 12Z run.   This would be spectacular.    It also would mean the 70+ streak at SEA would end just short of the 2017 record as the timing of the rain on Tuesday would keep that day in the 60s.    Also worth noting the 00Z ECMWF showed another heat wave to follow over Labor Day weekend.  

 

I saw this when checking my phone earlier (about 6am) and showed that it is hitting 90F in Renton for next Saturday. So it seems to be agreeing with what you said there. Except, I'm looking at the 00z Euro now and it's showing mid-70s for the Puget Sound and hot for the WV. The 00z GFS does show a nice warmth 10 days out for the time frame you mentioned. Am I missing something, maybe it's Pivotal Weather? 

[Phishy Wx]

55 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF showed a significant rain event for Seattle eastward next Tuesday into Wednesday like its 12Z run.   This would be spectacular.    It also would mean the 70+ streak at SEA would end just short of the 2017 record as the timing of the rain on Tuesday would keep that day in the 60s.    Also worth noting the 00Z ECMWF showed another heat wave to follow over Labor Day weekend.  

 

that would drop/close fire season to a minimum at least in N WA and most of BC

[TT-SEA]

Uggghhh.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I saw this when checking my phone earlier (about 6am) and showed that it is hitting 90F in Renton for next Saturday. So it seems to be agreeing with what you said there. Except, I'm looking at the 00z Euro now and it's showing mid-70s for the Puget Sound and hot for the WV. The 00z GFS does show a nice warmth 10 days out for the time frame you mentioned. Am I missing something, maybe it's Pivotal Weather? 

Didn't look at surface details... just saw this and assumed warm.

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

that would drop/close fire season to a minimum at least in N WA and most of BC

Yeah, last night on the 00z all the major models (Euro, GFS, GEM) showed 1-2" within the next week in the North Cascades. 1" probably won't be enough to kill fire season in the thick forests, but based on historic storms, 2"+ could probably do it. I'm definitely not going to get too hopeful, but I'm starting to feel a little more optimistic

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, last night on the 00z all the major models (Euro, GFS, GEM) showed 1-2" within the next week in the North Cascades. 1" probably won't be enough to kill fire season in the thick forests, but based on historic storms, 2"+ could probably do it. I'm definitely not going to get too hopeful, but I'm starting to feel a little more optimistic

If the pattern shown towards the end of the 00Z ECMWF verifies that rain event will be critical (just based on the 500mb pattern this far out).

[BetweenTwoFerns]

24 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

that would drop/close fire season to a minimum at least in N WA and most of BC

Would be so nice, not getting the first rain till mid-October last year was brutal.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF showed a significant rain event for Seattle eastward next Tuesday into Wednesday like its 12Z run.   This would be spectacular.    It also would mean the 70+ streak at SEA would end just short of the 2017 record as the timing of the rain on Tuesday would keep that day in the 60s.    Also worth noting the 00Z ECMWF showed another heat wave to follow over Labor Day weekend.  

 

Bone dry for me

[Snownerd3000]

Was talking to another parent at my kids karate class who just got back from a trip to San Juan Island. She's from the Midwest and noted when they see deer with thick coats this early it was an indicator or a cold winter. I added the old indicator of lots of spiders this early in the year. Brace yourself.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These numbers are incredible. The globe is on FIRE!

[iFred]

15 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Was talking to another parent at my kids karate class who just got back from a trip to San Juan Island. She's from the Midwest and noted when they see deer with thick coats this early it was an indicator or a cold winter. I added the old indicator of lots of spiders this early in the year. Brace yourself.

The local rabbits were looking gaunt, so I am going with a warm and near tropical winter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, iFred said:

The local rabbits were looking gaunt, so I am going with a warm and near tropical winter.

My friend’s hairdresser’s nephew’s grandmother’s bursitis is acting up, so I am going with a super-rainy winter with lots of pineapple expresses. Science!

[Phishy Wx]

we have a hornets nest on a back rain gutter. it's about 10 ft off the ground, so that's obviously how much snow we're getting this winter

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, iFred said:

The local rabbits were looking gaunt, so I am going with a warm and near tropical winter.

Tropical is not possible, only subtropical. 

[Cloud]

20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My friend’s hairdresser’s nephew’s grandmother’s bursitis is acting up, so I am going with a super-rainy winter with lots of pineapple expresses. Science!

It’s way too early to try to make sense of this!

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, last night on the 00z all the major models (Euro, GFS, GEM) showed 1-2" within the next week in the North Cascades. 1" probably won't be enough to kill fire season in the thick forests, but based on historic storms, 2"+ could probably do it. I'm definitely not going to get too hopeful, but I'm starting to feel a little more optimistic

It looks like it is entirely convective -- a spectacular widespread thunderstorm event. There's a huge moisture pathway between the heat dome to the east and the big 'ol low offshore, plus all of these tropical systems that have decided to come out west. 

I'm dead serious when I say this could compete with our all-time great western WA t-storm outbreaks. We won't know the details for a few days (coast Monday, Puget Sound Tuesday???) but I think it's going to be a top-5 weather event of 2023. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It looks like it is entirely convective -- a spectacular widespread thunderstorm event. There's a huge moisture pathway between the heat dome to the east and the big 'ol low offshore, plus all of these tropical systems that have decided to come out west. 

I'm dead serious when I say this could compete with our all-time great western WA t-storm outbreaks. We won't know the details for a few days (coast Monday, Puget Sound Tuesday???) but I think it's going to be a top-5 weather event of 2023. 

4-5 days is a long ways off. A lot could change. 

[RentonHill]

Very happy to see the trends for an EWA/BC soaking to start the 4th quarter of fire season. Hopefully OR can get in on some too. 

[Cold Snap]

Ended up with a 72/55 day yesterday. Had a low of 47 this morning which is my coolest low in about two months.

[the_convergence_zone]

22 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

4-5 days is a long ways off. A lot could change. 

For specific locations, yes, but it's incredibly rare for this region to see widespread thunderstorm complexes and this is one of those once-every-few-years opportunities. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 hours ago, Dave said:

Took a look on ACIS and this has pretty much been a historic summer in Eugene in the amount of consistent heat. We've wrecked the previous record of 80+ consecutive days by 12 so far with several more to go. 44 consecutive days over 80 (today was over 80.) Previous record was 32 in 1967. We'll probably get to around 49 or 50. Climate change has definitely occurred in the Eugenes. 

 

 

Hopefully we can get some rain with this and some thunderstorms. I don’t remember the last time I saw a bolt of lightning.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It looks like it is entirely convective -- a spectacular widespread thunderstorm event. There's a huge moisture pathway between the heat dome to the east and the big 'ol low offshore, plus all of these tropical systems that have decided to come out west. 

I'm dead serious when I say this could compete with our all-time great western WA t-storm outbreaks. We won't know the details for a few days (coast Monday, Puget Sound Tuesday???) but I think it's going to be a top-5 weather event of 2023. 

The pieces are there, but it's more than 100 hours out. I've seen these setups at this range before and they can falter quickly.

It is pretty on brand for late summer/+ENSO though so fingers crossed!

[ChrisEl Elyon]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

we have a hornets nest on a back rain gutter. it's about 10 ft off the ground, so that's obviously how much snow we're getting this winter

I thought it was if nest was on ground or close to ground means a milder and calmer winter and if high up means a rough winter or vice versa. 

[LowerGarfield]

It was a nice cool morning. Had the windows open until about 10:45. Nice day. Some haze but mostly clear with a cool breeze. High will be about 83-84F today so closing the windows while it's still cool.

Perfect weather. 

[LowerGarfield]

12 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Crazy moisture, late night thunderstorms.

Is Gusky in Walla Walla yet? Someone is studying there this fall.

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF showed a significant rain event for Seattle eastward next Tuesday into Wednesday like its 12Z run.   This would be spectacular.    It also would mean the 70+ streak at SEA would end just short of the 2017 record as the timing of the rain on Tuesday would keep that day in the 60s.    Also worth noting the 00Z ECMWF showed another heat wave to follow over Labor Day weekend.  

 

12Z run...

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

I thought it was if nest was on ground or close to ground means a milder and calmer winter and if high up means a rough winter or vice versa. 

Ran into a wasp nest in the ground in a customers garden yesterday.  It’s over. Winter cancel. 

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z run...

I’m in the light gray.   

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Monday night is probably going to be up there with the all-time great Puget Sound thunderstorm outbreaks of the last decade. 
 

Why am I so confident? Because I’ll be in Minnesota and these outbreaks seem to always happen when I’m gone…May 2017, Sept 2019, etc etc 

Too bad the Huskies aren't playing that day. As a Cal and weather fan, that was an incredible night. We lived in Stanwood .My then three year old asked where the lightning was the next night lol 

[Meatyorologist]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z run...

The convective details are off but there still exists widespread rainfall.

[the_convergence_zone]

14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Too bad the Huskies aren't playing that day. As a Cal and weather fan, that was an incredible night. We lived in Stanwood .My then three year old asked where the lightning was the next night lol 

My 2 1/2 year old only knows thunderstorms from books. She's never seen one.