August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Dave said:

We need a dry lightning emoticon. 

Smoke emoticon. Most of the lowlands get more smoke days than snow days, yet there’s a snow react and not a smoke react. Doesn’t make sense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A beautiful evening in the Drift Creek country south of Silverton. 

 

Edited August 26 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Cold Snap]

30th 80 degree day of the year for me today. Currently 74.

[Cascadia_Wx]

91/67 day here. Morning thunderstorms, then clouds clearing with a smoky haze, and some distant cumulus poking above it. Honestly much of this summer has felt like we’re living in a different climate. Especially this month.

Edited August 26 by Cascadia_Wx

[Ken in Wood Village]

With the smoke in the air, the moon looks rusty. I still need to figure out how to use this camera on my phone

[Dave]

44 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Honestly much of this summer has felt like we’re living in a different climate. Especially this month.

I've pretty much accepted that summer chilly anomalies are a thing of the past. Almost all over the warmest summers of record have occurred within the last decade. 

[Deweydog]

47 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

91/67 day here. Morning thunderstorms, then clouds clearing with a smoky haze, and some distant cumulus poking above it. Honestly much of this summer has felt like we’re living in a different climate. Especially this month.

Moderate.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Moderate.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gorgeous sunset tonight. May we live in interesting times. We are so blessed. 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

 

I met Krist Novoselic out at the coast during a rather chilly summer of 1993. Nice guy.

[Deweydog]

39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gorgeous sunset tonight. May we live in interesting times. We are so blessed. 

Mariners win!!!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Mariners win!!!

Your first place Seattle Mariners!  

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM for Labor Day looks too close to Labor Day 2020.    Or would the next day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM for Labor Day looks too close to Labor Day 2020.    Or would the next day.

Thanks for the good news. 

[MossMan]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Your first place Seattle Mariners!  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF for mid-week system... at least the Cascades get soaked.

[TT-SEA]

39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thanks for the good news. 

Would really prefer to see zonal flow rather than amplified right now.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Would really prefer to see zonal flow rather than amplified right now.   

White knuckling it until late October.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z looked better…

[TT-SEA]

06Z ECMWF only goes out through Tuesday at 5 p.m. but shows what appears to be a significant convective outbreak and heavy rain on Tuesday from the Puget Sound eastward.

 

[TT-SEA]

Marine layer clouds well inland from the coast and fire east of Portland sending a smoke plume straight west this morning.  

[Slushy Inch]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF only goes out through Tuesday at 5 p.m. but shows what appears to be a significant convective outbreak and heavy rain on Tuesday from the Puget Sound eastward.

 

Good trend. Previous runs were too far east.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF only goes out through Tuesday at 5 p.m. but shows what appears to be a significant convective outbreak and heavy rain on Tuesday from the Puget Sound eastward.

 

Got the lightning map?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Got the lightning map?

Didn't think of that... good call.   Looks pretty crazy.

 

[Phil]

20 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The gulf is a bathtub. It will probably be strong. 

Oh yeah. Ocean literally feels like a hot tub here. Getting in the water offers zero relief from the heat, you actually start dripping sweat.

Any intact tropical system in the gulf would go boom.

17 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Today is probably the nastiest day of smoke season so far. First time this year I can remember stepping outside, looking down the street, and seeing visible haze in the air in the same block.

This year is the first time I’ve experienced that, so now I can truly empathize. Really is terrible.

So many days in June and July looked like this (below). Thunderstorms would clear it out some evenings, then the next morning it would be back.  Didn’t truly clear out until early August.

 

15 hours ago, ChristheElohim said:

JAMSTEC Fall and Winter Outlook

I’ll happily take that.  

14 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

I was hoping with this summer being an El Niño it might resemble 2019. Im not sure a year like 2011 could happen again…but years like 2019 are probably the best we can hope for nowadays. 

A pattern like 2011 could (and will) happen again. When patterns are stagnant at the intradecadal scale it can seem like permanent/new normal, but that is not the case.

[Phil]

Shelfie from yesterday.

[Phil]

There must have been an unfathomable amount of biomass burned in Canada this year.

If you’d told me that smoke from fires ~ 1000 miles away would completely block the 2pm sky in MD, I would have laughed my arse off. Still am perplexed how a smoke plume could persist for such distances while entraining into the mixing layer. Must have been absolutely insane closer to the source.

[TacomaWx]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

A pattern like 2011 could (and will) happen again. When patterns are stagnant at the intradecadal scale it can seem like permanent/new normal, but that is not the case.

Seems hard to believe given that nowadays in July and august…it takes anomalous troughing to even get temps near 1981-2010 averages. 

[TacomaWx]

66 and smoky after a low of 55. Forecast temps are mid 80s today and tomorrow, but wouldn’t be surprised if we stay below 85 on one or both days depending on smoke. Think today might be warmer as it appears the smoke is clearing out from the SE moving NW. 

[Skagit Weather]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

There must have been an unfathomable amount of biomass burned in Canada this year.

If you’d told me that smoke from fires ~ 1000 miles away would completely block the 2pm sky in MD, I would have laughed my arse off. Still am perplexed how a smoke plume could persist for such distances while entraining into the mixing layer. Must have been absolutely insane closer to the source.

I mean 1.5% of the area of the entire country has burned (equivalent to 85% of the state of WA) which speaks for itself.

[Deweydog]

Twelvzy looks wet!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS and GEM like the idea of a big ridge over Alaska and downstream troughing after next week.

00Z EPS hinted at that by day 10 as well.  

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS shows the nightmare ending soon. Hopefully not just stringing us along.

[Timmy]

This would be good for the fire season.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows western ridging returning pretty quickly.   Getting significant rain over the next week would be great. 

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows western ridging returning pretty quickly.   Getting significant rain over the next week would be great. 

That’s just your typical LR GFS retrograding ULLs into the GOA.

IMO an anticyclone should retrograde over AK/Aleutians into Siberia w/inception of the GOA trough/pacific jet extension thereafter, bringing the first autumn storm train into BC/WA.

IE: transition from meridional trough pattern to zonal/stormy, thanks to transfer of AAM and intraseasonal tropical forcing (more p8-like).

[Meatyorologist]

Ridge it is.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ridge it is.

lol remember when phil said the last 10 days of august would be below average lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, Timmy said:

This would be good for the fire season.

Blessings! 

[Phil]

Destructive interference pattern setting up in the tropics. Prepare for some nearer term variability in guidance.

WHEM (ATL/W-IO) MJO/CCKW either leaves -VP behind or returns to EPAC w/ IPWP subsidence reflected in LP. Shows up nicely in hovmoller of U850 anoms (note the 4-wave pattern in the WHEM where LP ENSO is centered).

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

lol remember when phil said the last 10 days of august would be below average lol

Must be a different Phil.

FYI trolling ain’t your thing. You’d be better off letting others pick up the slack.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Must be a different Phil.

FYI trolling ain’t your thing. You’d be better off letting others up the slack.

Don't recall you saying that but did say 'Possibility' of a cooler and Wet Sept 

[TT-SEA]

Looks much better out here in terms of smoke/haze compared to around the Sound today likely thanks to a light east wind.  The Sound acts like a bowl in this situation accumulating the smoke.   Up to 75 out here now with just a light haze.   Smoke models show a little better conditions tomorrow with stronger easterly flow.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Seems hard to believe given that nowadays in July and august…it takes anomalous troughing to even get temps near 1981-2010 averages. 

(Relatively) lower heights in CA/SW US w/rt climo isn’t good for marine influence in the PNW region, which would make substantial cool anomalies difficult to come by. As I mentioned before summer began, extreme heat would be dampened in PNW during such a pattern but it essentially locks in a warmer than average outcome.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heating up quick!

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Don't recall you saying that but did say 'Possibility' of a cooler and Wet Sept 

I still like the cool/wet Sept idea, but it’s progressing more slowly than I had originally expected. Seasonal transitions are tough for me.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

(Relatively) lower heights in CA/SW US w/rt climo isn’t good for marine influence in the PNW region, which would make substantial cool anomalies difficult to come by. As I mentioned before summer began, extreme heat would be dampened in PNW during such a pattern but it essentially locks in a warmer than average outcome.

We had one of our most extreme heat waves on record just a few weeks ago.

[Meatyorologist]

23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We had one of our most extreme heat waves on record just a few weeks ago.

Your efforts are valiant

[Meatyorologist]

Lookin' good for the Seattle area monday night. Might have to dust off the tripod and do some long exposure shots on Maple Leaf..

[ChrisEl Elyon]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Lookin' good for the Seattle area monday night. Might have to dust off the tripod and do some long exposure shots on Maple Leaf..

Thunderstorms?