August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[the_convergence_zone]

18 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I think it would be incredibly challenging for something to retain tropical characteristics by the time it hit the PNW. Currently most of the sea surface temps are above normal and this is getting close to their annual peak. Hurricanes need water at least 26C (79F) to retain strength without weakening. The closest water that is over 26C is at least 1,700 miles away and tropical systems rarely move more than 30 mph so it would be at least 2 days of continuous weakening before the system reached here which would tear the system apart (or at least make it post-tropical).

They use fairly generous criteria for decaying tropical cyclones since you don't want to create public confusion by declaring it extratropical in the middle of a major flooding event. If the version of Hilary that made landfall yesterday was hanging out over the central Atlantic without a name, that thing would never be classified as a tropical cyclone. Maybe a subtropical depression at best. And they may end up changing the classification when they do reanalysis in the offseason. 

The closest we get to something "warm core" in this part of the world are the polar lows that we sometimes get during a cold period in winter. Those things fall somewhere in the gray area between tropical cyclones and mesoscale convective vortices. 

[skywatcher]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Marine layer has pushed in this morning and the AQI is down to 59 here.  I don’t think the AQI ever got above 200 and the smoke was only here for less than 48 hours. Could’ve been a lot worse. Will probably be in the green in the next few hours. 

Quick. At a solid 150 AQI right now. Looks very red and hazy out still. Highest reading last night was probably about 220 or so.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, skywatcher said:

Quick. At a solid 150 AQI right now. Looks very red and hazy out still. Highest reading last night was probably about 220 or so.

You must be on the east side or near Seattle. Smoke seems to be concentrated in the central sound and near the foothills for now. It’ll probably be mostly gone by this evening. 

[skywatcher]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

You must be on the east side or near Seattle. Smoke seems to be concentrated in the central sound and near the foothills for now. It’ll probably be mostly gone by this evening. 

I'm east and a little bit north of Tacoma treading the edge of the foothills. Due north of Enumclaw.

 

Hopefully the quick clearing for you will translate well here later today

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, skywatcher said:

I'm east and a little bit north of Tacoma treading the edge of the foothills. Due north of Enumclaw.

 

Hopefully the quick clearing for you will translate well here later today

Hopefully! It’s cleaned out more than I thought it would be at this time. There’s still some haze here but it’s much better than it was yesterday. 

[Cloud]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If you look closely... you can see the marine layer up to about Tacoma and thick smoke over the Seattle area but the clearing line is making progress eastward now with increased onshore flow.

Cool. I figured there might be some marine layer… didn’t really bother to look at the satellite. Hopefully there is some improvement from the smoke today, AQI certainly improved for Seattle, most of the high numbers (150+) are now concentrated east of the 405.

[TacomaWx]

The mean temp has dropped a little the past couple days…now down to +4.3F MTD. Some average-above average temps coming up but have to wonder if we will have some more smoke…atleast aloft to keep temps more in check. Either way going to end up a pretty warm month compared to June and July. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS refuses to show much rain for the Seattle area in contrast with the ECMWF... but does show moisture wrapping back around into NE WA and southern BC over the big fires up there.

[TT-SEA]

9 hours ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story. A few different things that compounded into a bad situation. He has had severe Crohn’s disease for at least 30 years so he has been on immunosuppressive meds forever, a week before he collapsed he had slipped and fallen while walking his dog at the park which tore up his leg. It got massively infected but he didn’t tell anyone and of course didn’t heal on its own due to all of his meds. On August 2nd I decided last minute to take the 3rd off and take the kids to the lake, my dad currently lives at the family lake house so we just happen to be there. Long story short was he seemed fine for most of the day, and I was just getting ready to start packing up and went to the back yard where he likes to sit in his favorite chair in the sun, and he was hunched over and was yelling he couldn’t get up out of the chair, I tried helping him but he collapsed on his back in the grass and vomited which he then aspirated on. I tried getting him on his side but he was fighting me so I called 911. Luckily the kids were still in the front (lake side) with my sister so they missed the whole thing. By the time I got home to drop off the dogs and then got to the hospital they had him on a ventilator and he was teetering on death. Aspirating is no joke, they Also found secondary infections going on so his body took a big hit. Took about a week for him to start breathing on his own, and another week to finally kick the infections and get his high fevers down. Now he is just extremely weak and unable to stand on his own yet and is still on a feeding tube, but he is just beginning to eat on his own. It’s crazy just how much weight he has lost since being hospitalized. Just glad both my sister and I took that day off, otherwise he would have been by himself and most likely would have died in the back yard. He doesn’t remember anything from that day other than being in an ambulance which is probably a good thing. 

Horrible situation... thanks for sharing.   I guess it could have been even worse as you said.   We have been dealing with my dad's failing health and mental decline for over a year now and I can relate to the emotional challenges.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS refuses to show much rain for the Seattle area in contrast with the ECMWF... but does show moisture wrapping back around into NE WA and southern BC over the big fires up there.

I'm cool with the green blob over my house

[the_convergence_zone]

10 hours ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story. A few different things that compounded into a bad situation. He has had severe Crohn’s disease for at least 30 years so he has been on immunosuppressive meds forever, a week before he collapsed he had slipped and fallen while walking his dog at the park which tore up his leg. It got massively infected but he didn’t tell anyone and of course didn’t heal on its own due to all of his meds. On August 2nd I decided last minute to take the 3rd off and take the kids to the lake, my dad currently lives at the family lake house so we just happen to be there. Long story short was he seemed fine for most of the day, and I was just getting ready to start packing up and went to the back yard where he likes to sit in his favorite chair in the sun, and he was hunched over and was yelling he couldn’t get up out of the chair, I tried helping him but he collapsed on his back in the grass and vomited which he then aspirated on. I tried getting him on his side but he was fighting me so I called 911. Luckily the kids were still in the front (lake side) with my sister so they missed the whole thing. By the time I got home to drop off the dogs and then got to the hospital they had him on a ventilator and he was teetering on death. Aspirating is no joke, they Also found secondary infections going on so his body took a big hit. Took about a week for him to start breathing on his own, and another week to finally kick the infections and get his high fevers down. Now he is just extremely weak and unable to stand on his own yet and is still on a feeding tube, but he is just beginning to eat on his own. It’s crazy just how much weight he has lost since being hospitalized. Just glad both my sister and I took that day off, otherwise he would have been by himself and most likely would have died in the back yard. He doesn’t remember anything from that day other than being in an ambulance which is probably a good thing. 

Yikes...that's rough to go through. One of my close friends had a similar experience with his dad...he happened to be over at his parents house when he noticed his dad having speech difficulty and he correctly interpreted it as a stroke. Unfortunately, his mom is somewhat clueless and stubborn and insisted nothing was wrong. He literally had to fight her to call 911 and get an ambulance and even though she eventually admitted he had a stroke he's still had to fight an uphill battle to make sure he keeps going to rehab. Not easy at all.

[Phishy Wx]

I'll never believe the GFS,  what's the latest EPS saying on E WA rain potential?

[Front Ranger]

Baker City, OR has already picked up .84" from the remnants of Hilary today. With plenty more on the way.

Northern CA is also seeing some nice rain. Should be enough to end the fire season in several areas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Baker City, OR has already picked up .84" from the remnants of Hilary today. With plenty more on the way.

Northern CA is also seeing some nice rain. Should be enough to end the fire season in several areas.

So good to see, hope there aren't too many flooding issues. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 hours ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story. A few different things that compounded into a bad situation. He has had severe Crohn’s disease for at least 30 years so he has been on immunosuppressive meds forever, a week before he collapsed he had slipped and fallen while walking his dog at the park which tore up his leg. It got massively infected but he didn’t tell anyone and of course didn’t heal on its own due to all of his meds. On August 2nd I decided last minute to take the 3rd off and take the kids to the lake, my dad currently lives at the family lake house so we just happen to be there. Long story short was he seemed fine for most of the day, and I was just getting ready to start packing up and went to the back yard where he likes to sit in his favorite chair in the sun, and he was hunched over and was yelling he couldn’t get up out of the chair, I tried helping him but he collapsed on his back in the grass and vomited which he then aspirated on. I tried getting him on his side but he was fighting me so I called 911. Luckily the kids were still in the front (lake side) with my sister so they missed the whole thing. By the time I got home to drop off the dogs and then got to the hospital they had him on a ventilator and he was teetering on death. Aspirating is no joke, they Also found secondary infections going on so his body took a big hit. Took about a week for him to start breathing on his own, and another week to finally kick the infections and get his high fevers down. Now he is just extremely weak and unable to stand on his own yet and is still on a feeding tube, but he is just beginning to eat on his own. It’s crazy just how much weight he has lost since being hospitalized. Just glad both my sister and I took that day off, otherwise he would have been by himself and most likely would have died in the back yard. He doesn’t remember anything from that day other than being in an ambulance which is probably a good thing. 

That's rough. Went through it with my mother last year. She blacked out from her weak heart, took a bad fall, broke her back, and never recovered. The worst aspect was dealing with the medical-industurial complex, which basically treated all of us in her family awfully. Hopefully the hospital your dad was in did better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Boise set a record for PWAT values this morning. Broke a record from... 1972. 

[the_convergence_zone]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So good to see, hope there aren't too many flooding issues. 

I'm sure there will eventually be some pictures of washed out roads (especially from Death Valley) but overall it seems like Hilary didn't generate high enough rainfall rates to cause severe damage. 

[Tyler Mode]

10 hours ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story. A few different things that compounded into a bad situation. He has had severe Crohn’s disease for at least 30 years so he has been on immunosuppressive meds forever, a week before he collapsed he had slipped and fallen while walking his dog at the park which tore up his leg. It got massively infected but he didn’t tell anyone and of course didn’t heal on its own due to all of his meds. On August 2nd I decided last minute to take the 3rd off and take the kids to the lake, my dad currently lives at the family lake house so we just happen to be there. Long story short was he seemed fine for most of the day, and I was just getting ready to start packing up and went to the back yard where he likes to sit in his favorite chair in the sun, and he was hunched over and was yelling he couldn’t get up out of the chair, I tried helping him but he collapsed on his back in the grass and vomited which he then aspirated on. I tried getting him on his side but he was fighting me so I called 911. Luckily the kids were still in the front (lake side) with my sister so they missed the whole thing. By the time I got home to drop off the dogs and then got to the hospital they had him on a ventilator and he was teetering on death. Aspirating is no joke, they Also found secondary infections going on so his body took a big hit. Took about a week for him to start breathing on his own, and another week to finally kick the infections and get his high fevers down. Now he is just extremely weak and unable to stand on his own yet and is still on a feeding tube, but he is just beginning to eat on his own. It’s crazy just how much weight he has lost since being hospitalized. Just glad both my sister and I took that day off, otherwise he would have been by himself and most likely would have died in the back yard. He doesn’t remember anything from that day other than being in an ambulance which is probably a good thing. 

I had a stroke a year ago in March.  I hadn't been to the doctor in probably 25 years.  I should have known with most of my family on blood pressure medication that I had high blood pressure myself.

Long story short, going to the doctor at least once a year is in everyone's best interest because they can often catch things early.  Was pretty eye opening for me.  My dad was always stubborn about going to the doctors, but now at 71 he makes it a regular thing.

I'm glad he's doing better now!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I'm sure there will eventually be some pictures of washed out roads (especially from Death Valley) but overall it seems like Hilary didn't generate high enough rainfall rates to cause severe damage. 

Authorities are saying there was plenty of damage, but little or no death, due to all the warnings that were issued.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I had a stroke a year ago in March.  I hadn't been to the doctor in probably 25 years.  I should have known with most of my family on blood pressure medication that I had high blood pressure myself.

Long story short, going to the doctor at least once a year is in everyone's best interest because they can often catch things early.  Was pretty eye opening for me.  My dad was always stubborn about going to the doctors, but now at 71 he makes it a regular thing.

I'm glad he's doing better now!

Wow, I hope you have been able to make a full recovery. I need to get to the doctor myself... This is a good reminder. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 384 LOL

[Phishy Wx]

47 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I had a stroke a year ago in March.  I hadn't been to the doctor in probably 25 years.  I should have known with most of my family on blood pressure medication that I had high blood pressure myself.

Long story short, going to the doctor at least once a year is in everyone's best interest because they can often catch things early.  Was pretty eye opening for me.  My dad was always stubborn about going to the doctors, but now at 71 he makes it a regular thing.

I'm glad he's doing better now!

dang, I've been on BP meds since my early 30s.  Im 48 now.  Family history and the like.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF... not backing down with rain event for tomorrow night and Wednesday morning.    Really looking forward it.

[ShawniganLake]

Skies have cleared a lot here. Just a bit of low level smoke and blue skies above.  68F. 
 

yesterday was smoky but very warm. High of 83F here. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF... not backing down and rain event for tomorrow night and Wednesday morning.    Really looking forward it.

meh, better than nothing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF... not backing down and rain event for tomorrow night and Wednesday morning.    Really looking forward it.

Those totals over NE Oregon are insane. 

[Phishy Wx]

[Tyler Mode]

Some of the driest areas of the PNW...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.03" on the day now at BKE.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Tyler Mode said:

Some of the driest areas of the PNW...

3/4" in the Alvord Desert is unbelievable. 

[TT-SEA]

Smoke is hanging on here.   The satellite shows how the marine air struggles to get east of Seattle on these weak marine push days.   Normally this would be a much warmer day out here but smoke is holding temps down.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Send me a DM today or tomorrow if you want to be in weather forum fantasy football league. I'll create a GC if there is enough interest.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I'm sure there will eventually be some pictures of washed out roads (especially from Death Valley) but overall it seems like Hilary didn't generate high enough rainfall rates to cause severe damage. 

That's the impression I got, too. Some flooding for sure, but flash flooding seemed fairly isolated to a few locations - most only saw .20-.40"/hr rates at peak.

[Front Ranger]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hour 384 LOL

The time traveling Tiktoker called it!

[Tanis Leach]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

At BC/AK border it couldn’t possibly have been fully topical/warm core. Those waters cannot sustain warm rain cyclogenetic processes especially in the face of shear at that latitude.

Possible it could have been subtropical.

Normally I'd agree, but since Dvorak technique was able to classify it, it was either transitioning and just not complete at the last dot (54N, 138W, this is the most likely scenerio since it takes 12 to 24 hours to complete, and this looks like it took 18-24 if NHC best track is to be believed), or it was able to change into subtropical and was able to be more resistant. On the flipside, I'd question the last dot since it was hour 18 and while SST's would've been 14C if we use the current maps as an analog, plus interaction with the cold front. 

 

3 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

I think it would be incredibly challenging for something to retain tropical characteristics by the time it hit the PNW. Currently most of the sea surface temps are above normal and this is getting close to their annual peak. Hurricanes need water at least 26C (79F) to retain strength without weakening. The closest water that is over 26C is at least 1,700 miles away and tropical systems rarely move more than 30 mph so it would be at least 2 days of continuous weakening before the system reached here which would tear the system apart (or at least make it post-tropical).

As explained in my original post, the 2006 storm formed over 18C temperatures, and the SSTs never got warmer. 2016's Alex transitioned into a hurricane with 20C temperatures, but the NHC noted that since the "upper troposphere temperatures [were] estimated to be around -60C," (discussion 4) that extra instability was able to overcome the requirement. Now the SST's off the coast are even colder (14C on a warm day), so you would not only need the perfect conditions for the cyclone to form, but those conditions need to be there at least to the (non-existent) trench. I would bet Portland hits 120F before that happens. I would also bet we get a CDS repeat, and a 49-50 repeat despite the warming that has occured before this happens. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BKE up to 1.10" about to move into the top 10. 

Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation 
for BAKER KBKR, OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate
1, 1.80, 1953-05-29
2, 1.54, 1934-06-26
3, 1.35, 1958-06-08
4, 1.30, 1978-04-27
5, 1.27, 1956-10-27
6, 1.21, 1970-07-11
7, 1.19, 1960-05-04
8, 1.15, 1956-07-20
9, 1.14, 1943-06-30
10, 1.12, 1957-03-04

Period of record: 1928-01-01 to 1981-12-31

[Cloud]

Something gotta give here. This is an incredible short time frame for one to show zilch and the other ~0.5.” Getting 0.5” this time of year is extremely helpful.

Both standing firm.

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Something gotta give here. This is an incredible short time frame for one to show zilch and the other ~0.5.” Getting 0.5” this time of year is extremely helpful.

Both standing firm.

The 12Z GEFS ensemble doubled down -- only 1/30 members with > 0.1" at KSEA. Meanwhile the EPS mean is 0.2" with 5/50 members above 0.5". 

Edit -- the 12Z HRRR looks closer to the Euro as well. So basically, it's gonna rain and the GFS is garbage as usual. 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The 12Z GEFS ensemble doubled down -- only 1/30 members with > 0.1" at KSEA. Meanwhile the EPS mean is 0.2" with 5/50 members above 0.5". 

Edit -- the 12Z HRRR looks closer to the Euro as well. So basically, it's gonna rain and the GFS is garbage as usual. 

I was gonna say, it’ll probably be somewhere in the middle. And the HRRR does show rain.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Normally I'd agree, but since Dvorak technique was able to classify it, it was either transitioning and just not complete at the last dot (54N, 138W, this is the most likely scenerio since it takes 12 to 24 hours to complete, and this looks like it took 18-24 if NHC best track is to be believed), or it was able to change into subtropical and was able to be more resistant. On the flipside, I'd question the last dot since it was hour 18 and while SST's would've been 14C if we use the current maps as an analog, plus interaction with the cold front. 

 

As explained in my original post, the 2006 storm formed over 18C temperatures, and the SSTs never got warmer. 2016's Alex transitioned into a hurricane with 20C temperatures, but the NHC noted that since the "upper troposphere temperatures [were] estimated to be around -60C," (discussion 4) that extra instability was able to overcome the requirement. Now the SST's off the coast are even colder (14C on a warm day), so you would not only need the perfect conditions for the cyclone to form, but those conditions need to be there at least to the (non-existent) trench. I would bet Portland hits 120F before that happens. I would also bet we get a CDS repeat, and a 49-50 repeat despite the warming that has occured before this happens. 

I mean there’s no physically plausible way it could have been tropical off the Alaskan coast. The energy required to produce a hurricane (via warm rain processes) is not available with water temperatures that cold.

Probably some kind of subtropical/warm seclusion event.