August 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Timmy Supercell]

We got removed from the Slight Risk, but tomorrow looks to have been beefed up a little on the SPC map.

[Black Hole]

As I look into it a bit more, if we don't have random convection gumming up the main event, that Wed afternoon into Thursday morning period looks very promising. A number of parameters are in "outlier mode" with a very strong upper level wave, mid level westerly flow behind it, a strong surface low and front, lots of CAPE and shear, etc. We will see if we can realize the potential. 

[Hawkeye]

12z HRRR...  The heavy rain drops south before reaching east-central IA.

[chescowxman]

A seasonably warm day on tap today to close out the weekend before wet weather moves in tonight through much of Tuesday. Some spots could see up to an inch or 2 of rain. Wednesday looks like the best day of the week before more unsettled weather arrives toward the end of the upcoming work week.

Records for today: High 104 (1918) / Low 46 (1957) /Rain 2.17" (1938)

[chescowxman]

So how cool has the summer months of June and July been across Chester County PA? At East Nantmeal this is the 16th chilliest summer so far out of 130 years of data. At Glenmoore it is the 33rd coolest summer to date with 67 years of records and finally at KMQS Coatesville Airport it is the 3rd chilliest to date with only 16 years of records back to 2008. As you can see in the graph below the average temperature trend is clearly for cooler summers than in our past here in Chester County.

[CentralNebWeather]

An absolutely beautiful Sunday. Temp at noon in the upper 60’s, cloudy skies, NW winds gusting to 35 mph, and a dew in the 50’s. Late September feel?  NWS morning disco saying the pattern will not be hot for several weeks or longer. Is the worst of summer over?  If it is, we had one hot week. I’ll take that any year. 
 

“Late in the period, another cold front associated with a low passing by to our north could brush the local area Friday/Friday night, although storm chances with this system do not appear as robust as with Tuesdays upper level wave. Behind this front... continued northwesterly flow in its wake will likely persist into at least the beginning of the following week, resulting in additional precip chances and seasonably cool temperatures. Looking at both the 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks from the CPC, this lean towards continued below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances could actually continue through at least the 19th of the month, and possible beyond.”

[Andie]

105at 5pm. 
Pressure 29.9. Giving me a whopping headache.  Humidity a low 28.8.  
I think everyone is pretty much weary of this exercise.  Looking forward to any change as long as it isn’t hotter.  
September often brings turbulence aloft so let’s hope.
Not much hope on TS ahead.  We’re looking NW for our changes.  We’ll live. Not our first rodeo but it’s time for a change. 

[CentralNebWeather]

17 minutes ago, Andie said:

105at 5pm. 
Pressure 29.9. Giving me a whopping headache.  Humidity a low 28.8.  
I think everyone is pretty much weary of this exercise.  Looking forward to any change as long as it isn’t hotter.  
September often brings turbulence aloft so let’s hope.
Not much hope on TS ahead.  We’re looking NW for our changes.  We’ll live. Not our first rodeo but it’s time for a change. 

I can’t imagine going through this heat as long as you have. We have had so many breaks up here, that I feel bad when I see the southern heat. We are only going to hit 74 for a high today with temps tonight in the low 50’s. 

[Andie]

Yeah. We can’t get all worked up with envy over it.  We want cooler temps. Mid 90’s would be awesome but that’s not in the cards.  
We’re stuck under the A/C for now. I water flower pots to have color.   The bumble bees have made friends with me as the ‘water lady’ and come greet me.  The lizards recognize me!  It’s just insane!!  

It’s 104 today. A whole degree lower. It hasn’t stopped determined golfers. I think they’re nuts!!   
As soon as the slightest hint of a drop in temps shows up send up a flare!!!

Ive had a headache for 2 weeks. Largely from bad air and heat.  Looking for a grain of hope!

[Tom]

22 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I can’t imagine going through this heat as long as you have. We have had so many breaks up here, that I feel bad when I see the southern heat. We are only going to hit 74 for a high today with temps tonight in the low 50’s. 

I’ve been thinking of my friends in AZ as well.  They haven’t had much of a Monsoon in the valley yet this summer and it’s hurting the cacti and other plants/vegetation putting a lot of stress on them.  It’s supposed to heat back up into the 115F range again next weekend!   It should back off later this month into SEP.  ORD hit a high of 72F today.  Felt like a taste of autumn.

[Andie]

Hit 104* today. Felt like 113*.  
no change in sight except wildfires have begun. This one is south of me. 300 acs and growing. 

[Andie]

Local Mets are saying No Tx highs won’t dip below 100 until after the 20th.  
May as well set things on cruise control.  
Can’t wait to see rain! Edit: Farmers Almanac has released their prognostications 

[OttumwaSnomow]

Memorable  day here! 1.25"  fell today. Far out did the models I saw.  More  showers than can count and 2 periods  of heavy rain. Here the crazy truth. My wettest day in 2023!! Things have turned around with regular light  rains since about june 18th. But finally  some runoff into ponds and creeks (a little).  2.60 in past 10 days as well.  Still waiting  for some  repeated or heavy  rain to charge the creeks!

[Tom]

7 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Memorable  day here! 1.25"  fell today. Far out did the models I saw.  More  showers than can count and 2 periods  of heavy rain. Here the crazy truth. My wettest day in 2023!! Things have turned around with regular light  rains since about june 18th. But finally  some runoff into ponds and creeks (a little).  2.60 in past 10 days as well.  Still waiting  for some  repeated or heavy  rain to charge the creeks!

I got a feeling that you'll be seeing them full to capacity as the pattern ahead is looking quite active.  "Fronts, Fronts, Fronts"...maybe you'll get more of that west/east "Frontal Flavor" and deliver some heavy rains in the next couple weeks.  

[Tom]

I just had to....Snows will be coming early and often this Autumn as we enter SEP for the Canadians and N Rockies.  Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow...let's see if there are any reports of Snow come Mid August in this region.

 

 

[westMJim]

With an official H/L of 65/61 yesterday had the new record coldest maximum for any August 6th at Grand Rapids. It was also the coldest maximum for Holland and one of the coldest maximums at Muskegon and Lansing. So all in all a cold damp August day. There was 0.60” of rain fall and there was no sunshine yesterday. The highest wind gust was 24 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 97 was set in 1918 and the record low of 46 was set in 1976. The record rain fall amount of 0.97” fell in 1959. Last year the H/L was 86/74 and there was 0.01” of rain fall.

Today looks to be another very cool August day with highs maybe in the low 70’s There is a small chance of showers. The rest of the week looks to warm up to near average with some chances of showers. Next weekend looks to cool down once again with a chance of some rain. Over all a cool to average than back to cooler than average.

[Tom]

Could ORD have 3 days in a row with highs in the 70's in early AUG?  It's sorta rare territory...today's gloomy skies and wind off the lake may just do that.  Normal high is 84F and this week will mark the 1st time come Thu when the sun will set before 8pm (7:59pm).

[Stormy]

I ended up with a nice soaking rainfall total of 1.10". Mainly just light to moderate rates and no thunder. Hoping for more this week as it was very dry! Rain began around 5:00pm yesterday and ended after midnight today. 

[OKwx2k4]

Waking up under what looks like an atmospheric river today. After all the heat, it's very welcomed. Was very nearing drought category or was at it again. Had grass dying or looking burned up. Really feels like summer is ending early, though. As the models continue their waffling back and forth, will be interesting to see if the severe  heat clears out all the way back down through Texas before month's end. August is a weird weather month sometimes. 

Anyway, thankful for the rainfall. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just freshly upgraded. I believe this is the first Moderate Risk within 100 miles of my location that I have seen.

And, @Phil I think this shades you?

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Just freshly upgraded. I believe this is the first Moderate Risk within 100 miles of my location that I have seen.

And, @Phil I think this shades you?

Yeah first moderate risk here since June 2013, though in hindsight there were probably some setups since that warranted it. Still, last 2 moderate risks both ended up being classified as derechos, so  

Setup is legit for esp for August when shear is typically lacking. Some of these CAM solutions are…eye-popping, to say the least.

[Hawkeye]

I was worried I wouldn't get much rain as models all shifted south, but several hours of light to moderate rain added up to a decent 0.72".  It was nice to experience a fall'ish rain event.

This system, overall, was kinda meh.  Models teased a swath of 2-3", but only a few pockets got over an inch.

[Phil]

Actually 4/19/19 was a moderate risk too, but didn’t cover the entire DC metro like this.

[Clinton]

Near perfect week ahead with a chance for some rain Wednesday. 

[chescowxman]

It looks like more showers and t-storms will be around after 5pm this evening - some of the storms could be severe. The weather turns nicer for midweek before we see shower chances return for both Thursday and Friday.

Records for today: The all-time record high was set today back in 1918 at 107 degrees / Record low 49 (1997) / Record Rain 1.58" (1913)

[Timmy Supercell]

[Timmy Supercell]

One of the biggest watches of the year! All them counties.. 

[Stormy]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

I was worried I wouldn't get much rain as models all shifted south, but several hours of light to moderate rain added up to a decent 0.72".  It was nice to experience a fall'ish rain event.

This system, overall, was kinda meh.  Models teased a swath of 2-3", but only a few pockets got over an inch.

Actually thought rain amounts would be more uniform across my community but 2 of my siblings around 6 miles to my southeast got nearly 2".

[Timmy Supercell]

A storm entering Boyd County (in Greenup) has a Tornado Warning on it. I hear a siren but it is very faint. I wonder if its a nearby town's siren sounding off. Technically it's not for this town.

[Timmy Supercell]

These are fast storms. Sun is back out and feels like 80 again. 

Ashland got lucky, it was a nice t'storm with bolts very close to the street but it seemed like a neighboring area might've had worse. Someone else in Ashland reported hail, none at my location. 

And looks like the airport has observation issues again. 

[Black Hole]

Picked up another .80" this morning. It was a pretty awesome pair of storms! But frankly, I can't handle any more nocturnal storms without a break. The HRRR says too bad lol 

 

[Black Hole]

From last night: 

 

[Andie]

104 Feels like 109.  

Can’t believe we’re getting used to this.  
Im ready for a thunderstorm, complete with all the extras!  

[Tom]

Some nice grilling weather…a bit of Mexican Skirt Steak and chicken sausages…78F/60F

 

 

 

 

[Andie]

Pass the tortillas!  

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

From last night: 

 

This storm apparently struck 4 girls east of Tulsa, all are still alive.

[Andie]

 

7:30 and 103* !   This summer stinks so bad!  I want my money back !!

104-108 until the 17th.  
Then 102.  
Make me laugh hysterically at times. D**n that volcano!

[Timmy Supercell]

Forgot to share this earlier. 

[Clinton]

A decent chance of rainfall showing up on Wednesday for my area to go along with near perfect temperatures I get this week.  For the first time this year I may have to mow the yard twice in 7 days.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I’m plenty wet around here. However, Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas are 200-300% of normal rainfall in the last 90 days. Seems like storms roll through there every night. 

[CentralNebWeather]

It’s raining again. Nice. Temp of 62. Feels great.  

 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Forgot to share this earlier. 

I have some clients in E TN and they said this was the worst storms they have seen in a number of years.  They are up near Bristol, TN.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 79/62 there was a trace of rain fall reported. For the month there has been 0.60” of rain fall. There was 30% of possible sunshine the highest wind gust was 23MPH out of the NW. There were 6 CDD’s for the month so far there have been 46 that is a departure from average of -10. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 96 was set way back in 1894 and the record low of 43 was set in 1989.

The week ahead looks to have temperatures near to a little below average and there will be a few chances of showers with the best chance over the weekend. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s and lows in the 60’s

[Tom]

What a terrific start to this Tuesday...63F/58F, I'm enjoying some nice cool and drier air this morning.  Sunrise is at 5:51am and by the end of the month its at 6:15am.  It's wild how quickly we start loosing daylight.

As I ponder on what lies ahead, the 1st real signs of Autumn showing up for the Upper MW and @hawkstwelve area around the 8/16 - 8/18 period.  The pattern is ripe for a strong late Summer CF that will usher in the seasons "coolest" temps and prob the lowest DP's for a lot of peeps that haven't been seen in a little while.  #bonfireseason

 

 

 

[Tom]

OK Peeps got rocked last night...woah, that line just came together perfectly for some Nocturnal BOOMERS..

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=50&interval=10&year=2023&month=8&day=8&hour=2&minute=25

[Andie]

What a summer!   
The contrasts across the country are really stunning.   Too much rain, no rain,  cool summer, scorcher.  

Something for everyone.  
103 today!  Starting out at 86.  

[chescowxman]

A breezy day on tap today following the storms last night. Temps should average below normal in the upper 70's for highs. Next chance of showers on Thursday night followed by a rare warmer than normal weekend with temps reaching the middle 80's.

Records for today: High 100.5 (1900) / Low 47 (1989) / Rain 1.81" (1910)

[Andie]

I keep telling myself to “just adjust your attitude. It is what it is.”
Some days it’s a struggle. 
But saved a baby squirrel from a feral cat this morning. Good deed for the day.

Wish someone would save us from this endless megaheat.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Potential severe storms looking more likely for tonight. It’s like a broken record. 

 

[Black Hole]

We had a 4th round of storms last night. This one was less on the lightning and more on the rain. I picked up 1.33", with 0.41" in 5 minutes (4.9"/hr rate) and apparently a peak rate of 8.2"/hr. So basically, most of it fell at once. It exacerbated a roof leak so that was unfun to deal with in the dark. Still, it's been a remarkable run with one more chance tonight.

Looking at a good severe risk tomorrow evening too just east of me.