August 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

Models are continuing to show a nice widespread rain event with a slight risk of severe weather.  Really hoping for some heavy rainfall to provide some runoff to begin filling ponds and creeks in my area.  The GFS ensembles look good for me the iconic ICON would be much better.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I’m no meteorologist, but I’d say it is going to rain later.

WPC is thinking heavy rain possible.

[Clinton]

Free video and write up from Gary Lezaks weather2020 site.

https://weather2020.substack.com/p/weather-changes-are-showing-up?utm_source=facebook&sd=pf&fbclid=IwAR2mcMe1PEFapVeiFC98j5JvgxIzO1D080UbFvY_NFp39VkmG6wfW2J7MW4

 

[Tom]

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

Models are continuing to show a nice widespread rain event with a slight risk of severe weather.  Really hoping for some heavy rainfall to provide some runoff to begin filling ponds and creeks in my area.  The GFS ensembles look good for me the iconic ICON would be much better.

I've been waiting for this pattern to fire up for your area and sooo glad to see it working out.  The radar looks impressive as the MCS comes alive...btw, my brother is going down to the Ozarks 8/23-8/26 for the races.  Will you be down there that weekend?

[Andie]

107* Today.  
Currently 84* as the sun comes up. 
Heat index 112* this afternoon.  

One question: WHEN WILL THIS STOP!?

 

[Tom]

@westMJim, I heard on Fox Weather yesterday that way back on August 8th, 1882 there was a very strong cold front that swept through lower MI and caused a lake effect snow event that dumped 6" of wet slushy snow on the deck of a ship.  That's pretty wild stuff!

[Clinton]

52 minutes ago, Tom said:

I've been waiting for this pattern to fire up for your area and sooo glad to see it working out.  The radar looks impressive as the MCS comes alive...btw, my brother is going down to the Ozarks 8/23-8/26 for the races.  Will you be down there that weekend?

Nice thunderstorm overhead atm looks like it may set in and rain for a bit.  I won't be down there that weekend unfortunately. 

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@westMJim, I heard on Fox Weather yesterday that way back on August 8th, 1882 there was a very strong cold front that swept through lower MI and caused a lake effect snow event that dumped 6" of wet slushy snow on the deck of a ship.  That's pretty wild stuff!

Unfortunately, I can not confirm that. There are very few records that go back to 1882. The temperatures on both the 8th and 9th of August 1982 at Milwaukee, Chicago, Lansing and Detroit are all very similar with highs in the mid 70’s on the 8th and mid 60’s on the 9th Lansing and Detroit had a good amount of rain on the 8th with lesser amounts in Chicago and Milwaukee. That said I did find this in weather history.

August 8

1894: Only four days after record cool weather in the 30s and 40s, the thermometer soars to record highs of 96 at Grand Rapids and 99 at Lansing.

[Bryan1117]

Dumped out 0.70” from my rain gauge this morning from the remnants of the MCS that rolled through Eastern Nebraska. We are really starting to cut into the rainfall deficits around here… which is amazing to see.

[chescowxman]

A beautiful day today with slightly above normal temps for a change. Showers return tomorrow and then we warm to above normal temps for the weekend.

Records for today: High 99 degrees (1909) / Low 49 (1989) / Rain 5.57" (1942)

[Andie]

102. Humidity 25%
Some light rain moving west to east.  It’s doubtful I’ll get much.  

[Andie]

Topping out at 108 today. 
(and it felt like it)…..

[Clinton]

Hard to believe I only got .25 in the gauge. Hard to break the drought. 

[Clinton]

The muggies return here tomorrow but the pattern remains active for the middle of the country with chances of severe weather.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 80/61 there was no rain fall. There were 0 HDD’s and 6 CDD’s the highest wind gust was 2 MPH out of the west. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 98 was set in 1944 and the record low of 45 was set in 1972. The most rain fall of 1.80” fell in 2012. Last year the H/L was 83/57 with no rain fall.

The best chance of rain now looks to be on Friday but several days will also see rain chances. Most of the next week will be near to below average temperature wise with Monday looking like a very cool day.

[james1976]

Hello from out east! My band is currently on an east coast tour. We started in Atlanta last night and we're in Asheville NC tonight. Typical warm and muggy with a few showers and storms so far on our trip. We're slowly making our way to the northeast. I won't return home til the 27th. 

[Timmy Supercell]

We had a nice 0.74" rainfall since midnight. 73 right now and overcast, light breeze. We missed out on the thunder and lightning but it should return in a couple days.

[Black Hole]

First dry day in a while here. It's warm and humid but manageable. Looks like rain returns tomorrow evening or Saturday morning so I better mow while I can  

[Andie]

Send rain my friend!!

107*

[Clinton]

I have a chance for some strong storms that may produce heavy rain and strong winds.  Eventually I'll run into one right?  2 rounds of storms possible Sunday so here I go again.

[Stormy]

Some of the models were, and still are bringing in a good round of storms tomorrow morning. Sure hope they're right.

On Tuesday there were spotty showers and t. storms all around me with one so close I could hear the rain falling while I got nothing. But later that afternoon a tail end tiny cell dropped 0.21". Then yesterday I got only a few hundredth with more just south.

PS... I fell asleep before I got this posted around midnight and now we're  having a t. storm already! Somehow I awoke just before it moved in. 

 

[Tom]

It's been a stormy morning for our IA friends... @Hawkeye @Stormy

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=35&interval=5&year=2023&month=8&day=11&hour=4&minute=5

[Tom]

Is anyone else having problems trying to "react" or "like" posts?

[Andie]

Intermittent. Didn’t work just now. 

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, Andie said:

Intermittent. Didn’t work just now. 

Thanks...just wanted to make sure it's not just me...Happy Friday!

[Hawkeye]

For once this summer, we actually over-performed early this morning.  A solid hour of thunderstorms with multiple waves of heavy rain dropped 0.96", my best rain event since June.  Just about every other downpour this summer has lasted about five minutes, so it was great to be able to lay in bed and listen to it for an hour.  I love nighttime storms.

[Tom]

45 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

For once this summer, we actually over-performed early this morning.  A solid hour of thunderstorms with multiple waves of heavy rain dropped 0.96", my best rain event since June.  Just about every other downpour this summer has lasted about five minutes, so it was great to be able to lay in bed and listen to it for an hour.  I love nighttime storms.

I was hoping you were enjoying this rain...glad to hear!

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 80/63 there was no rain fall and the sun was out a reported 63% of the time. There were 0 HDD’s and 6 CDD’s The highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the NW. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 96 was set in 1947 and the record low of 43 was set in 1967. The most rain fall on 1.31” fell in 1941. Last year the H/L was 80/60 and there was a trace of rain fall.

The next week looks to start off near average and then turn cool and there are several chances of rain. The highs will start off near 80 for the weekend and then drop into the low to mid 70’s for much of next week. Lows with be in the mid 60’s tonight then mostly in the upper 50’s for next week.

[westMJim]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Is anyone else having problems trying to "react" or "like" posts?

Yes. I was just unable to "react" 

[Stormy]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Is anyone else having problems trying to "react" or "like" posts?

Yes I couldn't react last night while I was catching up on this forum and it still isn't working. 

[Stormy]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

For once this summer, we actually over-performed early this morning.  A solid hour of thunderstorms with multiple waves of heavy rain dropped 0.96", my best rain event since June.  Just about every other downpour this summer has lasted about five minutes, so it was great to be able to lay in bed and listen to it for an hour.  I love nighttime storms.

For here it was pretty lame. Only 0.34" with much heavier storms passing just Northeast and southwest. Seems like I never get a direct hit this year, which is good only if it's a bad storm or it's too wet already. We may be going back to warmer and dryer for a spell after around 10 days. Hopefully not. But it's disturbing that most of the models are drying up the Sunday system with not much rain here at all. ugh Thankfully that's a couple days away yet so it could change. Also need to see if we'll get any storms this afternoon, but DVN doesn't seem very hopeful for my area. 

Edited August 11 by Stormy

[Tom]

19 minutes ago, Stormy said:

Yes I couldn't react last night while I was catching up on this forum and it still isn't working. 

 

19 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Yes. I was just unable to "react" 

Thanks for the feedback...maybe @iFred could look into it...

[chescowxman]

Yesterday was our 9th day of the first 10 days of August to feature below normal daily temperatures. In fact 21 of the last 25 days have been below normal. It looks like a great day today with near normal temps. We should finally see some slightly above normal temps both days of the weekend before we return to near normal August temperatures for the balance of the work week. Next shower chances look to be Monday night.

Records for today: High 101.5 (1900) / 48 (1974) / Rain 1.14" (1982)

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Is anyone else having problems trying to "react" or "like" posts?

Still can't as of now.

[Andie]

DFW outlook for the weekend is 106/107 with a "feels like" index of 111/112.

Winds have begun to increase some at 14-18 mph.  Everyone holding their breath regarding grass fires spreading into home additions.  I live on a golf course and they turn on their sprinklers when we get a grass fire near us.  Residents do as well. 

It is incredibly dry throughout Texas and grass fires are common. Any innocent spark can start a fire right now.

[CentralNebWeather]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

Still can't as of now.

First time I’ve gotten on today, and I can’t either. 

[Andie]

14/21 storms.  
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have increased their prediction for the remainder of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane seasonfrom a near-normal level of tropical cyclone activity to an above-normal level of activity due to record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that are expected to counterbalance the conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event in the Pacific.

The announcement was made Thursday morning, and forecasters said the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic has been raised to 60%, higher than the 30% chance it was given back in May.

[Clinton]

EAX and the SPC are still bullish on storms firing up this evening after the cap breaks.  Short range models don't seem to be onboard.

 

[iFred]

15 hours ago, Tom said:

 

Thanks for the feedback...maybe @iFred could look into it...

I’ll fix it in the morning

[westMJim]

Most of the storms were well to the east of Grand Rapids area yesterday. Here in MBY I only had a few sprinkles and then the sun came out.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 83/57 There was a trace of rain fall (here in MBY I had a whopping total of 0.02” of rain fall) there was some lightning in the distance last night. There were 0 HDD’s and 5 CDD’s the sun came out later in the day and there was 37% of sunshine. The highest wind gust of 28MPH was out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 81/62 the record high of 95 was set in 1988 and the record low of 45 was set in 1954. The most rain fall was 2.61” in 2016. Last year the H/L was 80/52 and there was no rain fall.

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Clinton said:

EAX and the SPC are still bullish on storms firing up this evening after the cap breaks.  Short range models don't seem to be onboard.

Looks like your getting some good morning Boomers my friend!

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=30&interval=10&year=2023&month=8&day=11&hour=20&minute=40

[Clinton]

Loud storms producing heavy rainfall have been training over mby the last few hours.  It's great to finally get some heavy rainfall, 1.1 inches so far with rain still falling. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Looks like your getting some good morning Boomers my friend!

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=30&interval=10&year=2023&month=8&day=11&hour=20&minute=40

Yes sir!  More on the way tonight and tomorrow possibly. 

[Tom]

6 hours ago, iFred said:

I’ll fix it in the morning

Thanks bud!

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Yes sir!  More on the way tonight and tomorrow possibly. 

Love to hear this...the nocturnal jet can produce prolific amounts of rain...enjoy it!

[Clinton]

Storms will soon move out leading to a hot sticky afternoon here.  Strong storms are expected to move back in overnight and another round of potentially severe storms possible Sunday afternoon. I expect to see an upgrade to an enhanced risk tomorrow as there is even a legit tornado threat.  North central MO had a sizable tornado last night.

   I need to cash in because the heat that Gary Lezak mentioned in his writeup for the last week of August is showing up on the models.  The GFS is ridiculously hot and having it's usual problems but even the Euro is plenty warm.

[Clinton]

15 hours ago, Andie said:

14/21 storms.  
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have increased their prediction for the remainder of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane seasonfrom a near-normal level of tropical cyclone activity to an above-normal level of activity due to record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that are expected to counterbalance the conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event in the Pacific.

The announcement was made Thursday morning, and forecasters said the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic has been raised to 60%, higher than the 30% chance it was given back in May.

I agree with that and there will likely be one that hits near the TX/LA boarder that will finally end your summer of heat around the Sept 12th-19th timeframe.  The pattern could be as such that the moisture from that system heads toward KC and the lower lakes but that's a little tricky to predict as a new LRC will be developing that will be entrenched as we get into Oct.  We have some posters that live along the east coast they could see a system around the same time.  Until then I don't see a break in the heat for you as much as I hate to say it.

[Iceresistance]

I had some storms this morning, and at 6:34 AM, I had an extremely close lightning strike that scared the crap out of me. I saw the lightning strike hit a tree just to my east in my property.

[chescowxman]

We have still only recorded one above average temperature day so far here in August. Through the 1st 11 days this is the 40th chilliest start to August in 130 years of records back to 1894. The next 2 days should see slightly above normal temps before we fall back to near normal for much of the upcoming week. There is a chance of a T-storm or 2 later today and tonight with a better chance by Monday night.

Records for today: High 101 (1900) / Low 45 (1930) / Rain 5.22" (1955)

[Andie]

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

I agree with that and there will likely be one that hits near the TX/LA boarder that will finally end your summer of heat around the Sept 12th-19th timeframe.  The pattern could be as such that the moisture from that system heads toward KC and the lower lakes but that's a little tricky to predict as a new LRC will be developing that will be entrenched as we get into Oct.  We have some posters that live along the east coast they could see a system around the same time.  Until then I don't see a break in the heat for you as much as I hate to say it.

That sounds right.  Whenever Tx is in a heat wave that is as strong as this one it always takes a hurricane or TS to stir up the atmosphere and get back to more seasonal norms.  

This High has been stubborn and air pressure has been high enough to give me a month long headache.  We are all so ready to kiss this summer goodbye.  Winter may have its problems too but everything is struggling to live right now.  
 

106 Today  
A reprieve Monday and 99*!!

EDIT:  

5pm-    107*   Had to get a few things done outside  Finished around 1.  Talk about brutal.