2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[Black Hole]

More evidence that December may end up more interesting than expected from the EPS weeklies. In particular, I like this control run 30-day average from this morning. That's pretty close to the composite mean of "big snow events" for OK. I've also attached a few snapshots from the averaged run below it. But the potential certainly seems to be growing. 

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

More evidence that December may end up more interesting than expected from the EPS weeklies. In particular, I like this control run 30-day average from this morning. That's pretty close to the composite mean of "big snow events" for OK. I've also attached a few snapshots from the averaged run below it. But the potential certainly seems to be growing. 

White Christmas seems like a good bet based off what I'm seeing for a lot of folks down farther south and most of this Sub.  I gotta tell ya, I'm stoked for this Winter as we may have ALL the big players on the field working together like a well performed Orchestra.  Just singing a beautiful Holiday tune!

 

[jaster220]

49 minutes ago, Tom said:

White Christmas seems like a good bet based off what I'm seeing for a lot of folks down farther south and most of this Sub.  I gotta tell ya, I'm stoked for this Winter as we may have ALL the big players on the field working together like a well performed Orchestra.  Just singing a beautiful Holiday tune!

 

DTW actually scored a very white Christmas last year. I would have to give it the best marks when grading last winter's performance. Complete with a fresh couple of inches of snow that fell Christmas morning. it was just like a snow globe and very festive around here.

Ofc, Dec 2000 should have been the deepest depth on Christmas morning here, but somehow despite no days even at 32F after the big storms, their depth went from 12" down to only 6" on the 25th?? Very odd since every other site around SEMI only dropped about 2" in depth from settling and minor sublimation. Just what you'd expect. Most across SMI had 15+ inches OTG the morning of 12-25-00. 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

White Christmas seems like a good bet based off what I'm seeing for a lot of folks down farther south and most of this Sub.  I gotta tell ya, I'm stoked for this Winter as we may have ALL the big players on the field working together like a well performed Orchestra.  Just singing a beautiful Holiday tune!

 

Whoa whoa hold up there lol.  You certainly could be right about a white Christmas but all it would take is poorly timed warmup to ruin that for most.  

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Whoa whoa hold up there lol.  You certainly could be right about a white Christmas but all it would take is poorly timed warmup to ruin that for most.  

Well, that never happens. Right?? Actually, warm holiday weeks have far out-numbered cold ones in recent decades. Guessing it's been like 70/30 mild and/or green. Good ones for mby of the last (10) were 2022, 2017, & 2013. And I can agree that it's a bit premature to think any cold wave will sustain a full month from when it starts. Vegas odds-makers certainly wouldn't side with @Tom's LR call.  

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Well, that never happens. Right?? Actually, warm holiday weeks have far out-numbered cold ones in recent decades. Guessing it's been like 70/30 mild and/or green. Good ones for mby of the last (10) were 2022, 2017, & 2013. And I can agree that it's a bit premature to think any cold wave will sustain a full month from when it starts. Vegas odds-makers certainly wouldn't side with @Tom's LR call.  

Last year's cold/snow was very nice.  Was getting tired of mild/green Christmases.

[jaster220]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Last year's cold/snow was very nice.  Was getting tired of mild/green Christmases.

Agreed. Through 2010 it would appear that ORD/DTW averaged at least a 40% likelihood. An updated version to 2020 may actually be a down-grade. Marshall was on the boundary of 50-60% so the trend there has been even worse. Only 2 of my 7 Christmas's there were white. 

 

[tStacsh]

Looks like a cold (snowy???) end to November in Michigan.  Not what I want, but it is what is.  Hope the pattern setting up after Thanksgiving settles in for the first part of Winter.   

[Niko]

44 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like a cold (snowy???) end to November in Michigan.  Not what I want, but it is what is.  Hope the pattern setting up after Thanksgiving settles in for the first part of Winter.   

I truly hope winter can wait until after Thanksgiving holiday. Ugh! Can you imagine the travel nightmare.........

[jaster220]

Today's 12z GFS throwing out the first fantasy map for The Mitt, including here in SEMI. Again, the odds are NOT with us when it comes to these extreme portrayals. Having said that, we are inching closer to somebody on here taking a hit. Stay tuned..

Edit: GEM shows the 2nd system taking a more traditional suppressed track and lower intensity. Verbatim would be a nice shoulder-season synoptic system. Perhaps on the order of Nov 75, 04, or 2018 in these parts. 

 

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Black Hole said:

More evidence that December may end up more interesting than expected from the EPS weeklies. In particular, I like this control run 30-day average from this morning. That's pretty close to the composite mean of "big snow events" for OK. I've also attached a few snapshots from the averaged run below it. But the potential certainly seems to be growing. 

Bastardi's weekly summary last Saturday did a great job of breaking-down the more realistic outcome of this anomalous ENSO situation and illustrates how last winter was exactly the opposite regarding the MJO alignment. 

WeatherBELL Analytics

[OKwx2k4]

I haven't said much and won't really add much to the same tune of winter being one that looks to lock all in place right at the right time. 

Evidence is mounting that my Niño call is a half-bust. While models are consistently showing forcing shifting to the dateline as I'd called for, the overall strength and continued occasional strengthening has continued even in spite of an unfavorable subsurface. 

I really think @Tom and @jaster220are hitting it on the head. I believe this region has the most favorable track for large, deepening snowstorms and tons of associated moisture. 

This month having a cold finish will be another positive sign. We'll see how that goes.

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I haven't said much and won't really add much to the same tune of winter being one that looks to lock all in place right at the right time. 

Evidence is mounting that my Niño call is a half-bust. While models are consistently showing forcing shifting to the dateline as I'd called for, the overall strength and continued occasional strengthening has continued even in spite of an unfavorable subsurface. 

I really think @Tom and @jaster220are hitting it on the head. I believe this region has the most favorable track for large, deepening snowstorms and tons of associated moisture. 

This month having a cold finish will be another positive sign. We'll see how that goes.

I personally don't see this season as "locking in" like 2013-14 for instance. We may get a solid month if a Feb 2015 situation wants to repeat. Most of the cited analogs toggled back and forth between mild and wild and that would be my call for 2023-24. Ofc, there is always that location that does the best under both regimes and/or scores multiple storm tracks. I'd like to think that could be my region as we did in the analog 04-05 but only time will tell. Looking good for your region to have some excitement too.  

[Niko]

52 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I personally don't see this season as "locking in" like 2013-14 for instance. We may get a solid month if a Feb 2015 situation wants to repeat. Most of the cited analogs toggled back and forth between mild and wild and that would be my call for 2023-24. Ofc, there is always that location that does the best under both regimes and/or scores multiple storm tracks. I'd like to think that could be my region as we did in the analog 04-05 but only time will tell. Looking good for your region to have some excitement too.  

I agree. 

[westMJim]

Been outside working in the yard. The latest official reading at Grand Rapids is 65 that is the 4th warmest for any November 16th at Grand Rapids. The record high is 68 in 1896 it was 67 in 1931 66 in 1954 and 1942 and this year ties 2015 at 65 (we will see what the official high will be for today) as at this time I have 68 in MBY.

[Hoosier]

Here's my final winter call for Chicago (ORD)...

Temps (only DJF):  0 to +1

Snowfall (total):  28-35"

Bonus prediction:  2 to 5 days below zero

 

Main change from my initial thought was to go colder.  I don't think that this Nino will reach +2.0 on the ONI, but even if it somehow does, it's not like the super Ninos of 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and so I cautiously lean away from those kind of torchy analogs. Even though my call is for not too far from average temps, I believe that it will be a winter of pretty big fluctuations that will more or less cancel out.  Out of DJF, my guess would be that December is the month that comes in warmest relative to average but I don't have a strong feeling on that one way or another.  

Obviously when it comes to seasonal outlooks, there's typically going to be bust potential in both directions since you put forth the scenario that you feel is most reasonable.  So, a warmer, colder, snowier, or less snowy outcome is all possible and nothing would really shock me.  This winter has some rather unique forecasting challenges and it will be interesting to watch things unfold.

[jaster220]

The next 10 days precip from the latest GFS:

Is this the primary pattern for upcoming winter? I think it may well be. It's a lot like that 04-05 analog map, but with the northern AN moisture displaced a bit south:

[tStacsh]

Definitely looks like an El Nino start to cold season.   

[Madtown]

2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Definitely looks like an El Nino start to cold season.   

Sure does

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Definitely looks like an El Nino start to cold season.   

Actually, strong Nino's tend to have winter up til Christmas, then it vanishes for a couple months during the heart of winter. The record breaking storm in Nov 2015 is a classic example. 

[jaster220]

Seems our gales of November are on the other side of the globe

Cargo Ship Splits In Half During Storm In Turkey - Videos from The Weather Channel

[tStacsh]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Actually, strong Nino's tend to have winter up til Christmas, then it vanishes for a couple months during the heart of winter. The record breaking storm in Nov 2015 is a classic example. 

Yeah, I was just saying this already feels like a Nino pattern settling in already.     Good news is the Models aren't showing much in the long range!   So that means something is coming in the next 10 days or so lol

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

Yeah, I was just saying this already feels like a Nino pattern settling in already.     Good news is the Models aren't showing much in the long range!   So that means something is coming in the next 10 days or so lol

LOL. Thx, you made my day. Tbh, a lot of great winters had very blah Novembers especially outside the LES belts. I realize we pull on different ends of the rope since LES outbreaks rarely even impact Detroit. You're looking for arctic plunges and I'm looking for synoptic events like the one on tap for tomorrow. The rare Nov snowstorm in Detroit has almost always been bad juju so I am not upset this will be a rainer here.  

[Madtown]

21 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Actually, strong Nino's tend to have winter up til Christmas, then it vanishes for a couple months during the heart of winter. The record breaking storm in Nov 2015 is a classic example. 

Just sayin feels pretty blag and moderate up this way.... NWS Green Bay on board.

[tStacsh]

Just now, jaster220 said:

LOL. Thx, you made my day. Tbh, a lot of great winters had very blah Novembers especially outside the LES belts. I realize we pull on different ends of the rope since LES outbreaks rarely even impact Detroit. You're looking for arctic plunges and I'm looking for synoptic events like the one on tap for tomorrow. The rare Nov snowstorm in Detroit has almost always been bad juju so I am not upset this will be a rainer here.  

I can't imagine being on the east side.  I probably wouldn't even care much about winter if I lived away from a snowbelt.    I'm certainly spoiled here.   Love LES events, especially the 20 degree type.  Last year, and Nov 14' were unbelievable.  LES has basically saved winter for  several years.   I'm still amazed at our snow total last year.  Sure didn't feel like that much, especially with a 3 week drought in the heart of winter. 

 

 But I still love a good true snowstorm or event true smaller snow events that seem to happen less frequently around my area lately.  

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Just sayin feels pretty blag and moderate up this way.... NWS Green Bay on board.

Oh, it certainly could be, and tbh what you'd get up there vs here in a typical Nino could be vastly different. For Detroit, last winter acted a lot more like a Nino due to all the warmth. Was hoping maybe this winter would act more like the Nina we were supposed to get last winter. And it may, but nothing says it has to act like 07-08 here. Could just as easily act like 11-12 which was pretty much horrible across the board. 

I do feel strongly that there is a very low probability that we will see a repeat of the super snowy winter that MSP had:

 

[Madtown]

Looks like MJO is headed to phase 3 and 4 to kick on Dec

[Tom]

46 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Looks like MJO is headed to phase 3 and 4 to kick on Dec

Yup, a relaxation of the pattern is what I'm expecting with a big storm around the 3rd-6th...this one will prob get blocked up in the pattern and become a slow moving West to East system across the board.  I see signs post 10th things start to step down colder and when winter really comes a knocking.

[Clinton]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

Yup, a relaxation of the pattern is what I'm expecting with a big storm around the 3rd-6th...this one will prob get blocked up in the pattern and become a slow moving West to East system across the board.  I see signs post 10th things start to step down colder and when winter really comes a knocking.

Looks like the cycle length is going to be around 54 or 55 days. The 12z GFS showing a pattern that closely resembles what we see Oct 12 - 14th around Dec 5th and 6th.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the cycle length is going to be around 54 or 55 days. The 12z GFS showing a pattern that closely resembles what we see Oct 12 - 14th around Dec 5th and 6th.

That’s exactly what I was thinking when I wrote my post earlier!

[OKwx2k4]

I agree with you guys on the cycle length as well. It's been pretty steady and visible in my opinion.

Seeing split camps continue on Niño.....

My hat is tossed in the camp of cycling right into a Modoki style Niño. There are mets like Larry Cosgrove who state that the jet hanging further south over Gulf and TX/Mexico insicate a very high liklihood of colder air plunging deeper into the US over the eastern two thirds than would normally see in an East based Niño. I agree with this and have since way back in the summer. Time a surge of moisture here just right and it's fun times. The rest writes itself. 

While overall winter may not have that wall-to-wall thump, I'm feeling very strong about my thoughts that we will see something very stout cold and white stuff in our future. 

[Grizzcoat]

KDSM just received a whopping .07" of rainfall yday. That's all for the entire month ( driest streak since 2015 I beleive and another analog year of Bastardi -- see below)  That puts KDSM currently in 4th place for the driest NOV's on record. Nov 23' is easily going to make TOP 10 Driest as this pattern is not budging anytime in the next 9 days.

On the above list are several analog years that Bastardi and others have in mind for this upcoming winter. ( 69-70 - 76-77 - 2002-2003 - ) Here is those winters snowfall for KDSM---  

  

1969-1970

T

T

12.0

3.2

1.2

9.8

3.9

0.0

30.1 -- OCT through MAY = 30.1"

1976-1977

T

1.1

2.8

7.6

0.9

4.8

1.9

0.0

19.1--- OCT through May = 19.1"

2002-2003

0.9

1.3

T

4.7

16.4

4.8

5.1

0.0

33.2   OCt through May = 33.2"

Avg of those 3 analog winters is no bueno for snowfall = 27.5" Normal for DSM is 35-36"    I'am not impressed with the players on the field for snowfall this winter at KDSM ( 2015 -16 as mentioned above was 30" -- 4th below normal analog year)

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

KDSM just received a whopping .07" of rainfall yday. That's all for the entire month ( driest streak since 2015 I beleive and another analog year of Bastardi -- see below)  That puts KDSM currently in 4th place for the driest NOV's on record. Nov 23' is easily going to make TOP 10 Driest as this pattern is not budging anytime in the next 9 days.

On the above list are several analog years that Bastardi and others have in mind for this upcoming winter. ( 69-70 - 76-77 - 2002-2003 - ) Here is those winters snowfall for KDSM---  

  

1969-1970

T

T

12.0

3.2

1.2

9.8

3.9

0.0

30.1 -- OCT through MAY = 30.1"

1976-1977

T

1.1

2.8

7.6

0.9

4.8

1.9

0.0

19.1--- OCT through May = 19.1"

2002-2003

0.9

1.3

T

4.7

16.4

4.8

5.1

0.0

33.2   OCt through May = 33.2"

Avg of those 3 analog winters is no bueno for snowfall = 27.5" Normal for DSM is 35-36"    I'am not impressed with the players on the field for snowfall this winter at KDSM ( 2015 -16 as mentioned above was 30" -- 4th below normal analog year)

Just looking at your Top-10 driest, most of those were good to great over this way. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

KDSM just received a whopping .07" of rainfall yday. That's all for the entire month ( driest streak since 2015 I beleive and another analog year of Bastardi -- see below)  That puts KDSM currently in 4th place for the driest NOV's on record. Nov 23' is easily going to make TOP 10 Driest as this pattern is not budging anytime in the next 9 days.

On the above list are several analog years that Bastardi and others have in mind for this upcoming winter. ( 69-70 - 76-77 - 2002-2003 - ) Here is those winters snowfall for KDSM---  

  

1969-1970

T

T

12.0

3.2

1.2

9.8

3.9

0.0

30.1 -- OCT through MAY = 30.1"

1976-1977

T

1.1

2.8

7.6

0.9

4.8

1.9

0.0

19.1--- OCT through May = 19.1"

2002-2003

0.9

1.3

T

4.7

16.4

4.8

5.1

0.0

33.2   OCt through May = 33.2"

Avg of those 3 analog winters is no bueno for snowfall = 27.5" Normal for DSM is 35-36"    I'am not impressed with the players on the field for snowfall this winter at KDSM ( 2015 -16 as mentioned above was 30" -- 4th below normal analog year)

I believe  the spring summer fall precip has little  bearing on winter  precip. Despite   having horrible  dry growing  season  the past 2 winters have  been generally  wetter than avg.  The 1930s bear that out.  The horrible dust bowl years had some very snowy winters.   I feel were in a phase much like the 1950s. Repetitive  dry growing seasons. 

[Tom]

After some back n forth model runs off the CFSv2 daily for the month of DEC, it's back showing the NW NAMER ridge and some high lat blocking.  I recall posting a map of where the Canadian forest fires were most pronounced across western/northern Canada.  Did Nature say something??  Let's see what Mother Nature has in store.

 

[Clinton]

Free video and write up from Gary Lezak today.  Says we are moving into cycle 2 of this years LRC and with that in mind the big wet storm the 12z Euro and GFS show around the 1st to 3rd of Dec will likely trend north in the coming days.  I will have to do some checking but that would set the cycle length around 49 days or so with 3 significant storms in the pattern.  In the video he also shows why cycle 2 is weighted heavier in his forecast than cycle 1.

https://weather2020.substack.com/p/where-will-snow-fall-this-holiday

[jaster220]

Next d10+ tease storm from the GFS:

[jaster220]

@Tom

Just watched last week's Saturday Summary and JB had a great segment on how the JMA is showing a very strong resemblance to 2014-15 as you go month-to-month. That ofc would mean we may roast and get very bored with December. 

[Madtown]

On 11/21/2023 at 11:50 AM, Tom said:

Yup, a relaxation of the pattern is what I'm expecting with a big storm around the 3rd-6th...this one will prob get blocked up in the pattern and become a slow moving West to East system across the board.  I see signs post 10th things start to step down colder and when winter really comes a knocking.

Looks brutal till then mid to upper 30's up here keeps getting warmer!

[Madtown]

GFS showing warm at the end of the run 300+hrs. Seems it's cooled the 3-5th as we get closer. one can hope