September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, first run to show Lee hitting that far south. 

Models are still all over the place with location and timing, though.

Ensembles have been showing a similar story for days, these outlier deterministic runs are little more than entertainment for now. 

[Cloud]

Oh no… El Niño

[Phil]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

 

Eh, verbatim that’s not too different from a midwinter nor’easter up there. But the hype will be insane if that verifies.  

[Phil]

Zap. ️ 

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful and not a cloud in the sky. 84F.

[the_convergence_zone]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Eh, verbatim that’s not too different from a midwinter nor’easter up there. But the hype will be insane if that verifies.  

Rain and wind, yeah. Storm surge would be a little different than a nor’easter. 

[TT-SEA]

84 here on the lake... predicted high is still 82.    Absolutely perfect out here... and completely calm.  

[iFred]

3 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

 

We instituted a policy that posting model outputs more than 48 hours out requires a license or a certification in meteorology. Joe Z on Twitter, sure you’ve heard of him, had suggested as much last winter.

Please refrain from any further speculation.

[Front Ranger]

34 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Oh no… El Niño

 

This is what they predicted last August.

 

And what happened:

 

Overall, they tend to underestimate cool anomalies.

[Phil]

Inject the new Euro seasonal into my veins.  

[Phil]

I’m surprised models aren’t more bullish on a strong autumn/early winter pacific jet. It’s very consistent signal across analog pools but LE guidance simply ain’t having it.

EPS seasonal is drier than average across most of BC/WA every month from September to (at least) March.

[Deweydog]

@Front Ranger

[Cloud]

45 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This is what they predicted last August.

 

And what happened:

 

Overall, they tend to underestimate cool anomalies.

Other than the SW, it was pretty accurate overall? EC is a coin flip. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Another trip into the Olympics. Beautiful day!

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

84 here on the lake... predicted high is still 82.    Absolutely perfect out here... and completely calm.  

 

You really need to call this in to Google and tell them.

[Cloud]

Inter-hour has SEA at 81. It’s likely the station already hit 80 when the official update is out. 

[TT-SEA]

Thanks to the Mariners for trying to ruin this beautiful day!  

[TT-SEA]

81 at SEA today.   

[the_convergence_zone]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

We instituted a policy that posting model outputs more than 48 hours out requires a license or a certification in meteorology. Joe Z on Twitter, sure you’ve heard of him, had suggested as much last winter.

Please refrain from any further speculation.

I prefer not to associate with that guy. In any case, we decided a few pages back that posting wild deterministic output is “fun” and I agreed to find all of the wind storms. 
 

[Meatyorologist]

I've never understood the rage around posting long range weather maps. It's not like most people get their weather info from random snow weenies online, let alone the weather service.

I love the bright colors. They decorate the place nicely.

[Deweydog]

Beeeeautiful evening!

[The Blob]

I'm training my friend on how we check our trailers this evening. The weather is perfect for it.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've never understood the rage around posting long range weather maps. It's not like most people get their weather info from random snow weenies online, let alone the weather service.

I love the bright colors. They decorate the place nicely.

Fred is certainly not wrong about me complaining about it in the past and there were a couple of years where people were still learning to trust the ensemble systems and figure out how to use them. These days everybody is smart enough to laugh off that 12Z Euro run so we may as well entertain ourselves with it. In TC prone areas even the general public knows how to read those spaghetti plots. 
 

I do think some areas have major problems with the social media-ologists but fortunately those people only care about blizzards and category 6 hurricanes. 

[MossMan]

Still a balmy 62 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

Cougs just made up for the Mariners!   That win is so sweet for many reasons.

[Kolk1604]

56 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I'm training my friend on how we check our trailers this evening. The weather is perfect for it.

You should see if your friend knows what to do in this situation 

[The Blob]

14 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You should see if your friend knows what to do in this situation 

We don't work in the yard, but we have to go out from time to time to make sure the notes are correct.

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

This is what they predicted last August.

 

And what happened:

 

Overall, they tend to underestimate cool anomalies.

How did they do with precip?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So the Pac12 is good.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Cougs just made up for the Mariners!   That win is so sweet for many reasons.

Welcome to the top 25! Should be able to crack it when the rankings come out Monday.  That would actually get half of the teams in the top 25… so not a bad conference! What a weird and uncertain time for this conference. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Welcome to the top 25! Should be able to crack it when the rankings come out Monday.  That would actually get half of the teams in the top 25… so not a bad conference! What a weird and uncertain time for this conference. 

More like 8 of them.

USC, Washington, Utah, Oregon, Oregon St, Colorado, UCLA & Washington St. If Cal can hang on vs Auburn then they’ll receive votes too. Only middling to lousy teams are Arizona, ASU & Stanford.

[MossMan]

Ugh…It’s over. 
Fire Pete and bring back Russ.

Geno sucks.

Oh look Jamal Adams is out for the year again and didn’t even play a snap.

Our defense couldn’t stop the run of a peewee league team. 
DK just cost us another 15 yard penalty for his antics.

Are we really down by 10 to McVay and his 90’s hairstyle? 

8 minutes left to go in the 3rd quarter and Pete has cost us all of our timeouts with his dumb challenges…

Yay we won…Going to be a great year! 

Okay got all that reverse psychology out of the way…Go Hawks! 

 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Ugh…It’s over. 
Fire Pete and bring back Russ.

Geno sucks.

Oh look Jamal Adams is out for the year again and didn’t even play a snap.

Our defense couldn’t stop the run of a peewee league team. 
DK just cost us another 15 yard penalty for his antics.

Are we really down by 10 to McVay and his 90’s hairstyle? 

8 minutes left to go in the 3rd quarter and Pete has cost us all of our timeouts with his dumb challenges…

Yay we won…Going to be a great year! 

Okay got all that reverse psychology out of the way…Go Hawks! 

 

I am certain Jamal Adams got hurt getting out bed this morning and is out for the season.    Now he can sit back and earn his $70 million watching the Seahawks season on his couch.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is a thread for seachicken talk. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Slept outside last night at Jawbone Flats. Mild night, low of 55.

If you have been here, the meadow area right across Battle Ax creek is the only area 99.99999% of the trees didn’t burn. 

Edited September 10 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is a thread for seachicken talk. 

Thought I was in that tread when I posted it…Oops! 

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Slept outside last night at Jawbone Flats. Mild night, low of 55.

If you have been here, the meadow area right across Battle Ax creek is the only area 99.99999% of the trees didn’t burn. 

Andrew!!! We’ll be in Mt. Angel next weekend for a wedding. Once I found out I immediately thought of you!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Andrew!!! We’ll be in Mt. Angel next weekend for a wedding. Once I found out I immediately thought of you!

OFest weekend at that! 

[Deweydog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OFest weekend at that! 

Oh sh*t!

I think it’s just out of town at an old barn or something. I’d have to look at the invite but that’s just too much effort.

[TacomaWx]

Going up to orcas island tomorrow. Might be some light rain showers but I’m sure there will be some sunshine at some point Monday or Tuesday. 

[Slushy Inch]

I know some people are probably complaining about fall not starting yet. I doubt it will last till October again. But the weather for our 4 day backpacking trip is looking perfect.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I know some people are probably complaining about fall not starting yet. I doubt it will last till October again. But the weather for our 4 day backpacking trip is looking perfect.

Looks like a potential top tier warm

September on tap!

[Cold Snap]

Made it to 80 yesterday. Low of 51 this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Slept outside last night at Jawbone Flats. Mild night, low of 55.

If you have been here, the meadow area right across Battle Ax creek is the only area 99.99999% of the trees didn’t burn. 

 

Disclaimer, this area is still closed to the public, I am on a volunteer crew with the private landowners of Jawbone Flats, with USFS permission. 

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a potential top tier warm

September on tap!

Looks like some kind of cool down possible by the 20th.

[Cloud]

29 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I know some people are probably complaining about fall not starting yet. I doubt it will last till October again. But the weather for our 4 day backpacking trip is looking perfect.

But…… if this holds, we’ll be seeing our first 40s for the morning lows since June! Either way, I think it’s shaping up to be an exceptionally dry Sept. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful and 80F right now.

Seahawks thread time!

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Beautiful and 80F right now.

Seahawks thread time!

80 and sunny here too.

Only 73 at SEA though... onshore flow is a little stronger today than yesterday but not enough to make it out here yet.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

I know some people are probably complaining about fall not starting yet. I doubt it will last till October again. But the weather for our 4 day backpacking trip is looking perfect.

I need near record breaking warmth to even think about leaving the house.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I need near record breaking warmth to even think about leaving the house.

Seriously. Why would someone want it to be hot for a backpacking trip..