September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Iceresistance]

I know this is unrelated here, but I had to post this here. I filmed it on September 6th.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Dance’

I’m almost in the purple!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS definitely looks wetter but then looks more ridgy for next week.   A good regionwide soaking like it shows for Sunday/Monday would be very nice.   12Z GEM backed off somewhat and does not show much rain at all for the next 10 days.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS definitely looks wetter but then looks more ridgy for next week.   A good regionwide soaking like it shows for Sunday/Monday would be very nice.   12Z GEM backed off somewhat and does not show much rain at all for the next 10 days.  

What does the most recent available Euro run show? If it concurs with the GFS, that is encouraging for rain, though we need to get a few days closer before I am going to get excited about it.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What does the Euro show? If it concurs with the GFS, that is encouraging for rain, though we need to get a few days closer before I am going to get excited about it.

00Z ECMWF showed very little rain over the next 10 days... the 06Z run only went through Sunday night.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF showed very little rain over the next 10 days... the 06Z run only went through Sunday night.  

Well, chalk it up to fantasy land then. Hopefully when the 12Z comes out it is trending wetter.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Well, chalk it up to fantasy land then. Hopefully when the 12Z comes out it is trending wetter.

GFS has significant rain moving in on Sunday which is day 5... not really fantasy land now.     It will be interesting to see if the 12Z ECMWF follows the 12Z GFS.   Based on the 06Z EPS there is a good chance this happens.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS has significant rain moving in on Sunday which is day 5... not really fantasy land now.     It will be interesting to see if the 12Z ECMWF follows the 12Z GFS.   Based on the 06Z EPS there is a good chance this happens.  

That’s encouraging. I generally put more faith in ensemble means than operationals anyhow.

[RentonHill]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That’s encouraging. I generally put more faith in ensemble means than operationals anyhow.

last 3 EPS runs

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

I know this is unrelated here, but I had to post this here. I filmed it on September 6th.

 

Sweet storm.  You should teach Phil how to record some decent storm video.   

[TacomaWx]

Got up in the San Juan’s yesterday morning. Was mostly cloudy and foggy on the water but ended up getting into the low 70s and sunny yesterday afternoon. Little bit of rain this morning but it’s already passed through and it’s cloudy and cool. Has been great so far. Caught a picture of a part albino deer as well which I’ve never seen in the times I’ve been here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Got up in the San Juan’s yesterday morning. Was mostly cloudy and foggy on the water but ended up getting into the low 70s and sunny yesterday afternoon. Little bit of rain this morning but it’s already passed through and it’s cloudy and cool. Has been great so far. Caught a picture of a part albino deer as well which I’ve never seen in the times I’ve been here. 

We have a piebold deer in our area. They are very uncommon. 

[Phil]

The remarkably east-based nature of this El Niño event is affirmed by the fact the ATL hurricane season (to-date) is in the top-10 in terms of ACE. The canonical El Niño/shear structure has not established thus far.

Expect a lot of phase 8/1 RMM loops this fall/winter. Which is why I still anticipate a cool/troughy theme this autumn in the west.

[Phil]

Even though phase-8 a warm signal in the PNW after the winter solstice, it is a firm cool signal from the fall equinox until then.

There are ways the system can circumvent that pathway, but it’s not something I’d place a bet on.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The remarkably east-based nature of this El Niño event is affirmed by the fact the ATL hurricane season (to-date) is in the top-10 in terms of ACE. The canonical El Niño/shear structure has not established thus far.

Expect a lot of phase 8/1 RMM loops this fall/winter. Which is why I still anticipate a cool/troughy theme this autumn in the west.

eesh. another January dud INCOMING

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Even though phase-8 a warm signal in the PNW after the winter solstice, it is a firm cool signal from the fall equinox until then.

There are ways the system can circumvent that pathway, but it’s not something I’d place a bet on.

Eh. Even the hot days are much shorter and clearly pack less of a punch. I'd imagine the worst of the warm season is over around these parts. Maybe a couple more rounds of 80s but no 2022 repeat, I hope.

Also we're getting to that time of year where most nights it's getting into the 40s and low 50s, instead of hugging 60F.

[Meatyorologist]

Janky

[the_convergence_zone]

Love the rainy trend in the ensembles -- seems like we should be able to squeeze something out early next week followed by some real fall rains by the 23rd or 24th. Right on schedule. 

[the_convergence_zone]

43 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Eh. Even the hot days are much shorter and clearly pack less of a punch. I'd imagine the worst of the warm season is over around these parts. Maybe a couple more rounds of 80s but no 2022 repeat, I hope.

Also we're getting to that time of year where most nights it's getting into the 40s and low 50s, instead of hugging 60F.

Sept 2022 at Sea-Tac:

74.6 F / 55.1 F

September 2023 so far:

74.7 F / 55.4 F

With the colder half of the month still to come. Last year was wild. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Janky

 

Front Range-esque!!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Eh. Even the hot days are much shorter and clearly pack less of a punch. I'd imagine the worst of the warm season is over around these parts. Maybe a couple more rounds of 80s but no 2022 repeat, I hope.

Also we're getting to that time of year where most nights it's getting into the 40s and low 50s, instead of hugging 60F.

Yeah, but I’m talking w/ respect to climo. I would expect most of S/O/N to run cooler than average in the PNW region, including this month (even though it’s starting off warmer than I had anticipated).

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS not backing down at all... in fact its wetter for Sunday night and Monday than its 12Z run.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS not backing down at all... in fact its wetter for Sunday night and Monday than its 12Z run.

Over an inch! What’s the 12Z Euro have to say?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Over an inch! What’s the 12Z Euro have to say?

Rain for Sunday/Monday per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain for Sunday/Monday per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

I think I will, in the immortal terminology of Archie Bunker, stifle myself.

[Phishy Wx]

lol GFS, that ain't happening.  Euro has a clue

[SilverFallsAndrew]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah, but I’m talking w/ respect to climo. I would expect most of S/O/N to run cooler than average in the PNW region, including this month (even though it’s starting off warmer than I had anticipated).

We’ve pretty much been around average so far, though the next few days should bump us up a notch. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Over an inch! What’s the 12Z Euro have to say?

 

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS not backing down at all... in fact its wetter for Sunday night and Monday than its 12Z run.

Blessings. Lord GFS!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is loading a lot of cold air in western Canada and SE Alaska in January. Torchy lower 48, pnw not as torchy as the rest. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Blessings. Lord GFS!

Odds of an indecent exposure arrest at your office are increasing!  

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS is loading a lot of cold air in western Canada and SE Alaska in January. Torchy lower 48, pnw not as torchy as the rest. 

So then a torchy western Canada and SE AK and cold lower 48 is the mostly likely outcome.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Janky

Not too far between 49 and 73.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Odds of an indecent exposure arrest at your office are increasing!  

Be sure to watch out for Mr. Dlck

https://www.koin.com/local/washington-county/pants-less-man-gets-7-years-for-felony-public-indecency/

Edited September 12 by BLI snowman

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Be sure to watch out for Mr. Dlck

https://www.koin.com/local/washington-county/pants-less-man-gets-7-years-for-felony-public-indecency/

there was a naked guy down by king street this morning. Must be a new fad. Hope it passes quickly. 

[T-Town]

Had a couple showers come through but could only muster a trace of rain. Cloudy and 64 now with some blue sky to the west. 

[Phishy Wx]

summer's last stand??

 

 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Be sure to watch out for Mr. Dlck

https://www.koin.com/local/washington-county/pants-less-man-gets-7-years-for-felony-public-indecency/

I’m surprised PDX didn’t turn him loose. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

there was a naked guy down by king street this morning. Must be a new fad. Hope it passes quickly. 

He could go to one of those events with the rainbows that happens every June

[TT-SEA]

Rain has ended... just cloudy now.   The grass along the roads here was burnt to a crisp one month ago and totally brown.  Not so any longer.    Also a hint of fall color starting.   

[Requiem]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

He could go to one of those events with the rainbows that happens every June

Not to be xenophobic but if all you're gonna contribute here are weird quips and quasi-political statements can you go back to the California thread

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Went to my daughters open house at her government school. Dang that place is ghetto, still not voting for their bond… But anyways, the science teacher said the previous record for snow days since he started in 1999 was 8 or 9, but he believes they ended up with 17 last winter because a lot of the long time bus drivers retired and the new drivers are afraid to drive in the snow. If Phil is right it shouldn’t be an issue this winter. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Went to my daughters open house at her government school. Dang that place is ghetto, still not voting for their bond… But anyways, the science teacher said the previous record for snow days since he started in 1999 was 8 or 9, but he believes they ended up with 17 last winter because a lot of the long time bus drivers retired and the new drivers are afraid to drive in the snow. If Phil is right it shouldn’t be an issue this winter. 

I think all districts are struggling with bus driver turnover and shortages.   Its a problem here too.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really pleasant evening out there. SLE sitting at about a +0.3 departure on the month after today. Not bad. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think all districts are struggling with bus driver turnover and shortages.   Its a problem here too.   

Unpopular opinion, but I think they should have school whether or not the bus can make it there or not. Snow is a fact of life in the winter up here, last year was more than normal, but the roads were only dangerous one or two days last winter. They lost 3 1/2 weeks of instruction due to snow, that’s completely unacceptable. My daughter was in kindergarten last year so I wasn’t too worried about it, but if it becomes a theme we may have to look at changing schools. 

[RentonHill]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Went to my daughters open house at her government school. Dang that place is ghetto, still not voting for their bond… But anyways, the science teacher said the previous record for snow days since he started in 1999 was 8 or 9, but he believes they ended up with 17 last winter because a lot of the long time bus drivers retired and the new drivers are afraid to drive in the snow. If Phil is right it shouldn’t be an issue this winter. 

I took you for a homeschool man! Why leave something so important to the man??

[Cloud]

SEA is pretty much bullseye for the month to date. +0.2.

[Tyler Mode]

Nice surprise this evening.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unpopular opinion, but I think they should have school whether or not the bus can make it there or not. Snow is a fact of life in the winter up here, last year was more than normal, but the roads were only dangerous one or two days last winter. They lost 3 1/2 weeks of instruction due to snow, that’s completely unacceptable. My daughter was in kindergarten last year so I wasn’t too worried about it, but if it becomes a theme we may have to look at changing schools. 

I actually agree.   As I have mentioned many times... our district is ridiculously cautious early in the year.   They will close for an inch of slush.   But later in the year they get much more aggressive because they can't afford to cancel any more days or they will end up going until the 4th of July.   It's short-sighted and never changes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I took you for a homeschool man! Why leave something so important to the man??

That was the plan, but I am not able to at this point due to work, and my wife was not comfortable doing it due to her own learning disability. So I don’t love it, but I take solace in that it is a very small school and I know most of the other parents and many of the teachers because they all live up here on the hill, but it’s something we are constantly reevaluating. My three older daughters who primarily live with their mother are homeschooled and I support this wholeheartedly and pay for 100% of their educational materials. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I actually agree.   As I have mentioned many times... our district is ridiculously cautious early in the year.   They will close for an inch of slush.   But later in the year they get much more aggressive because they can't afford to cancel any more days or they will end up going until the 4th of July.   It's short-sighted and never changes.

They didn’t even make any days up last year, they just move the start of the day from 8:30 to 8:15 for the last two months of the year.