September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

?

Last night a concerned citizen made me aware of some trolling you are participating in on another site. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

In the meanwhile, looks like I get two smaller rainfalls very soon.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Put up an 83/55 spread here yesterday. First half of the day was very smoky and hazy. Nice marine push last night with some quick cooling in the evening.

Partly cloudy and 51 this morning. Feels more fall like at very least, and model trends have been favorable the last 12 hours or so (although the upcoming pattern is clearly one they struggle with)

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The current all-time September low at BNO is 17, so they can get cold. The old Harney Branch station was in a fairly similar spot from 1922 to 1954 and they recorded some insane temps during that stretch. The 48/2 on 9/24/26 is pretty out there... So is the -11/-45 from December 1924.

That must have been a pretty impressive airmass dropping south in 1926.  We had a low of 25F on that same day.  Would have been rough on veggie gardens for sure. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

That must have been a pretty impressive airmass dropping south in 1926.  We had a low of 25F on that same day.  Would have been rough on veggie gardens for sure. 

Can’t even imagine how cold It was at 1000’ a few miles south of Port Angeles. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Regional precip at hour 90, Euro vs. GFS.

[TacomaWx]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last night a concerned citizen made me aware of some trolling you are participating in on another site. 

Spill the tea plz it’s getting boring on this site 

[Cloud]

A tad fall-like this morning with the cloud cover. Feels calm.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can’t even imagine how cold It was at 1000’ a few miles south of Port Angeles. 

Probably low 20s maybe upper teens  

[TacomaWx]

I also don’t understand why the guy from port Angeles is getting hated on  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I also don’t understand why the guy from port Angeles is getting hated on  

He’s really not.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Spill the tea plz it’s getting boring on this site 

Apparently just causing trouble in Mark Nelsen s blog comments. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently just causing trouble in Mark Nelsen s blog comments. 

Tim-othy must be getting bored! Have a hard time imagining him trolling anyone though

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Tim-othy must be getting bored! Have a hard time imagining him trolling anyone though

So far as I know, the new Fox 12 weather forum does not allow comments.

[ShawniganLake]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I also don’t understand why the guy from port Angeles is getting hated on  

The guy is a serious problem around here.  He doesn’t like cold weather in summer.  We can’t have that 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

So far as I know, the new Fox 12 weather forum does not allow comments.

I don’t know. I haven’t gone on there in years, but someone was sending me screenshots last night so I think they do…

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t know. I haven’t gone on there in years, but someone was sending me screenshots last night so I think they do…

I occasionally visit the new blog to see what Mark’s thoughts on the weather are, and I have never found a place for user comments there. I will say that I often find modern trends in graphical user interface design counterintuitive, so maybe it’s hidden somewhere obscure to me.

[Cloud]

Look like the 12z still likes the idea of about quarter of an inch for the Seattle area Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

[Front Ranger]

35 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I also don’t understand why the guy from port Angeles is getting hated on  

Garden variety controversy.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Since someone mentioned it, here’s the 12Z Goofus precip maps. Since the 06Z Euro and GFS maps were both very similar, something much like this is probably going to happen.

Tonight’s rainfall, Tuesday’s, total:

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last night a concerned citizen made me aware of some trolling you are participating in on another site. 

I literally don't post anywhere else on the internet except for here.    So it's not definitely not me.

[TT-SEA]

42 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The guy is a serious problem around here.  He doesn’t like cold weather in summer.  We can’t have that 

He also "hates" our "dreadful" winters.   Ouch.

[Cloud]

Seems like the potential for a soggy start to the fall equinox and subsequently to close out the month is there. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS keeps a moisture plume just offshore for days.   At least through day 10... don't care what it shows after that.   12Z GEM went back to a ridgy scenario after showing the same thing as the GFS on its 00Z run.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Seems like the potential for a soggy start to the fall equinox and subsequently to close out the month is there. 

I would say more damp than soggy around the equinox. As far as later in the month, we shall see, though encouragingly moist solutions do seem to be emerging in the models, so yes, the potential is certainly there. Definitely more encouraging than what the models looked like the middle of last week.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Tim-othy must be getting bored! Have a hard time imagining him trolling anyone though

Its most certainly not me.   I haven't even looked at Mark Nelsen's blog for years.  

[ShawniganLake]

Beautiful start to the day here this morning.  Clear blue skies with a mild low of 53F.  My girls slept in this morning as we stayed late at the fall fair last night.  
 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Jesse, move to Southern California. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

I also don’t understand why the guy from port Angeles is getting hated on  

pot stirrers get that around here.  I"M PRO POT STIRRER!!!.  need to work up the old guard on occasion, its healthy for discussion

[Phishy Wx]

22 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Jesse, move to Southern California. 

our backyard in Long Beach use to look similar to that, except we had some citrus and avocado trees

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS keeps a moisture plume just offshore for days.   At least through day 10... don't care what it shows after that.   12Z GEM went back to a ridgy scenario after showing the same thing as the GFS on its 00Z run.

Okay. Just looks like something you would post...

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay. Just looks like something you would post...

Yeah... not me.    Sorry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... not me.    Sorry.

If the shoe fits.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS keeps a moisture plume just offshore for days.   At least through day 10... don't care what it shows after that.   12Z GEM went back to a ridgy scenario after showing the same thing as the GFS on its 00Z run.

Too far out to even know at this point.. all it'll take is a shift to the east a few miles and it's a whole lot of wet for the region. As depicted by the 6z. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If the shoe fits.

I get why you would think that... but its someone else.      Might even be one of you trying to impersonate me.  

Check with Mark on his IP address location.  

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently just causing trouble in Mark Nelsen s blog comments. 

That's a different tim I'm pretty sure, they've been posting comments there for a while

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The current all-time September low at BNO is 17, so they can get cold. The old Harney Branch station was in a fairly similar spot from 1922 to 1954 and they recorded some insane temps during that stretch. The 48/2 on 9/24/26 is pretty out there... So is the -11/-45 from December 1924.

That 1924 number is crazy, how cold did they get in other cold waves that decade?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

That 1924 number is crazy, how cold did they get in other cold waves that decade?

-45 in January 1930. Average low was -11.3 in January 1949. Mean temp that month was 4.3.

Hit -42 in January 1937 and had a monthly mean of 5.3. -36 in February 1933. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS looks fine to me. 

[Cloud]

In the short term, the 12z Euro with like a slight increase to the rain totals for the Seattle area to about a quarter of an inch. Similar to the GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has completely abandoned the idea of a ULL cutting off to the west over the ocean next weekend in favor of much more consolidated flow.  

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF and GFS are pretty much in lock step one week from today... GEM is on its own with a more ridgy scenario.  

[TT-SEA]

First AR type event for Vancouver Island next weekend... would be pretty beneficial up there.  

[MossMan]

Had ash on my truck this morning. 

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

First AR type event for Vancouver Island next weekend... would be pretty beneficial up there.  

Would be nice to have it slip south after they get a good drenching. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Would be nice to have it slip south after they get a good drenching. 

On this run its actually in the process of pulling westward when it drenches VI.    But there is so much model volatility that it could easily end up over western WA.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay. Just looks like something you would post...

That’s your sock account.  

[Phil]

On 9/14/2023 at 9:22 PM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Me thinks you haven’t been paying attention. 

CFS is going to be replaced soon. What will you do then?

On 9/15/2023 at 2:20 PM, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z and ensembles looking pretty good.

So maybe the GFS wasn’t in clown mode for once. Pattern looks decent across ensemble means.

18 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... but it can come in firehose spurts and be broken up with some nice periods and still be much wetter than normal.    I am guessing November and December will be very wet.    That is just a guess of course.   But if I had to bet that it what I would put money on.  

Would be preferable if it were a prolonged light rain for best absorption into soil, right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

CFS is going to be replaced soon. What will you do then?

So maybe the GFS wasn’t in clown mode for once. Pattern looks decent across ensemble means.

Would be preferable if it were a prolonged light rain for best absorption into soil, right?

99% of the rain we get is fairly light. Even when we get big amounts, its generally just due to duration. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS says December is our time to shine.