September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

Also loving the +QPF trend for tomorrow night in Seattle. Looks like that weak front in Haida Gwaii will end up surviving as it enters our area, with a strong PSCZ signal immediately behind it, and weak deformation band behind that. Might end up pushing a quarter-half inch.

Last night I got donut hole'd pretty bad and only ended up with wet ground and petrichor, maybe a couple hundredths of an inch at best. Everywhere to the north, east, and south fared much better. Such is life in the rain shadow south of the Snohomish Co. plateau.

[MV_snow]

3 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I live near there. The weather changes pretty quickly with a sharp cut off from about 169 in Maple Valley towards the foothills. We are literally a few minutes from the Cascade foothills. 

Definitely true and sometimes frustrating for those that live in Maple Valley! I remember Feb 2019 where we were just barely too warm for the last major snow storm while areas a few miles to the east had snow on the ground until late March. 

[MV_snow]

SEA NWS AFD very bullish on a potential AR early next week.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Definitely true and sometimes frustrating for those that live in Maple Valley! I remember Feb 2019 where we were just barely too warm for the last major snow storm while areas a few miles to the east had snow on the ground until late March. 

Technically mid-March.     It was in the 70s and touched 80 here in mid-March and there was no snow left then.   

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MV_snow said:

SEA NWS AFD very bullish on a potential AR early next week.

I need to see the ECMWF jump on board... the 12Z run was drier than normal over the next 10 days.    I would not be surprised if the 00Z run comes in much wetter.  

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Really liking how the post-Equinox warm signal has been watered down to 2 or 3 seasonably mild days, followed by what will probably end up being the first jet extension of the season. Blessings to go 'round for all.

Right now it's 64F and partly cloudy here with filtered sunshine, nearing 4pm. Lyphe is good.

Looking like most places will be near normal temp-wise for the month in about a week.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looking like most places will be near normal temp-wise for the month in about a week.

SEA was just about perfectly normal through the 15th.    

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I need to see the ECMWF jump on board... the 12Z run was drier than normal over the next 10 days.    I would not be surprised if the 00Z run comes in much wetter.  

A lot of those brown shades are pretty light, and the maps I posted earlier showing totals indicate there is still going to be precip, and more than just a trace of it. Over 2" in my area, in fact. That may still be subnormal for this 10-day period, but it’s not looking like it’s going to be parched dry until late October like last year.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A lot of those brown shades are pretty light, and the maps I posted earlier showing totals indicate there is still going to be precip, and more than just a trace of it. Over 2" in my area, in fact. That may still be subnormal for this 10-day period, but it’s not looking like it’s going to be parched dry until late October like last year.

For sure... its already WAY different than last September in my area.   Its totally green again here.  

I was just referencing the SEA NWS being bullish on an AR event.   Not saying it will be dry.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

For sure... its already WAY different than last September in my area.   Its totally green again here.  

I was just referencing the SEA NWS being bullish on an AR event.   Not saying it will be dry.

I think they are putting way too much faith in the GFS operational, which basically stands alone on that.

[TacomaWx]

65/54 0.09” of rain today. 

[MossMan]

Chilly wind blowing at soccer practice this evening. This person has quite the view I’m sure. 

[ChristheElohim]

66° here at Eastside Tacoma 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

And there it is, the first mention of the s-word for the season.

Quote

OKANAGAN CONNECTOR - MERRITT TO KELOWNA
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

3:37 PM PDT Monday 18 September 2023

High elevation snow possible Tuesday night over Pennask Summit

Timeframe: Tuesday Night.

Location: Near Pennask Summit on Highway 97C.

Threat: Possible snowfall of 2 to 4 cm.

A low pressure system will spread precipitation to the southern interior on Tuesday. Freezing levels will lower Tuesday evening close to 1700 metres allowing the precipitation to possibly fall as snow over Pennask Summit on Highway 97C. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 cm are possible near the summit by Wednesday morning.

Weather in the mountains can change suddenly resulting in hazardous driving conditions.

Road conditions are available at drivebc.ca.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

 

[Cloud]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And there it is, the first mention of the s-word for the season.

 

I’m actually legit curious… does the term “termination dust”still being used?

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I need to see the ECMWF jump on board... the 12Z run was drier than normal over the next 10 days.    I would not be surprised if the 00Z run comes in much wetter.  

There’ll be some sort of compromise. Like it typically does.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I’m actually legit curious… does the term “termination dust”still being used?

I think that’s mostly an Alaska thing.

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, MV_snow said:

SEA NWS AFD very bullish on a potential AR early next week.

The GFS op runs have been outliers for the period that it’s showing the AR so I’m surprise the NWS is quite bullish on it. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but without the Euro support on it, it should really means nothing atm. 
 

12z and 18z precip ensembles. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

Southern parts of OC is still socked in

 

 

Parts of the central valley were gloomier than Seattle today. @AlTahoe how were those thunderstorms today? RadarScope loop showed a small one on the south end of the lake amidst a cacophony of convection.

[MossMan]

Already down to 47 degrees! 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS and 00Z GEM much closer tonight.   GFS still shows decent rain but has backed off quite a bit on totals... not really an AR set up.   GEM keeps most of the rain offshore but much closer than the 12Z run.

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

Significant rain totals on the GFS by next Wednesday.    But its spread out more from Sunday through mid-week.   

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM shows less but this is a big increase from its 12Z run.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Some double barrel low action right there.

[Cloud]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM shows less but this is a big increase from its 12Z run.

With the track record between the GEM and Euro. I fully expect the Euro to have similar solutions or within the ballpark. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

57 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Already down to 47 degrees! 

Will our foothill friend have a frost to complain about tomorrow morning?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Will our foothill friend have a frost to complain about tomorrow morning?

Lmao. Down to 43, but clouds are on the way to save me!

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Lmao. Down to 43, but clouds are on the way to save me!

43??? I'll trade places with you

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50F and a really nice night.

[Meatyorologist]

First one of the season. Change is afoot.

[smerfylicious]

I see blue popping up on models, and yet no snow_wizard. Hope he's okay

[RentonHill]

15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

First one of the season. Change is afoot.

It’s coming!!!

[The Blob]

The only precip I've had is my child's bed. 

[Cloud]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM shows less but this is a big increase from its 12Z run.

 

8 hours ago, Cloud said:

With the track record between the GEM and Euro. I fully expect the Euro to have similar solutions or within the ballpark. 

Pretty much what I had anticipated from the 00z Euro after seeing the GEM. In fact, appears to be a lot closer to the GFS. Look like a pretty solid chance to end the month with appreciable rainfall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Blessings are back baby!!!!

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, The Blob said:

The only precip I've had is my child's bed. 

[LowerGarfield]

50F now and 49F at the nearby Wunderground station. Coolest morning we've had yet.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

 

Pretty much what I had anticipated from the 00z Euro after seeing the GEM. In fact, appears to be a lot closer to the GFS. Look like a pretty solid chance to end the month with appreciable rainfall. 

Not enough for PDX.

[Skagit Weather]

The aurora came out last night between about 8 and 11 pm!

[MossMan]

I thought it was supposed to rain today. 
0.00” on the day! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I thought it was supposed to rain today. 
0.00” on the day! 

Tonight!  

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tonight!  

I don’t think Randy really looks at the forecast models

[TacomaWx]

Low of 52 this morning. Models have started to pick up momentum and more rain is showing up. Fall is not going to take until Halloween to show up this year. 

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I don’t think Randy really looks at the forecast models

I don’t…Especially this time of the year! I rely on all of you for these details so step it up! Winter is coming! Bring your A game! Let’s go! 

Slackers. 

[SnowWillarrive]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t…Especially this time of the year! I rely on all of you for these details so step it up! Winter is coming! Bring your A game! Let’s go! 

Slackers. 

The only important thing in life is snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only expecting very light amounts tomorrow, however Sunday/Monday really shows potential for a solid soaker. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We may be very very blessed. 

[the_convergence_zone]

We're going to get soaked next week.

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We may be very very blessed. 

Those aren't tears of joy on Tim's face...