September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Slushy Inch]

Looks like it’s almost time to get that weatherbell subscription. Rain is nice. But maybe we can sneak in some early mountain snow and some wind as well.

[MossMan]

43 for a low! Think I will need to take the boat out of the water tomorrow. It was a good run, too bad life was a little too insane to enjoy the lake much this season. Maybe next year! 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

What did you get?

Davis Vantage Vue. Thing’s been a rock star so far.

All these years of being a weather dork and I’ve never really had a grown up weather station. Only bummer is we live in pretty wind-protected spot but that may change relatively soon. I was spoiled growing up living at the coast with our east and south exposure. Had an analog anemometer that I got when I was 15 and still remember standing watching it during the Inauguration Day Storm pop to 85 mph. Felt like the house was gonna come off it’s foundation. It didn’t.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Davis Vantage Vue. Thing’s been a rock star so far.

All these years of being a weather dork and I’ve never really had a grown up weather station. Only bummer is we live in pretty wind-protected spot but that may change relatively soon. I was spoiled growing up living at the coast with our east and south exposure. Had an analog anemometer that I got when I was 15 and still remember standing watching it during the Inauguration Day Storm pop to 85 mph. Felt like the house was gonna come off it’s foundation. It didn’t.

So moving is still on the table?

[Skagit Weather]

Dropped to 42.6F this morning out near the water. Up river in Marblemount it was 37F this morning. 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

Got down 44° Eastside and Lakewood, 38° at Spanaway and 36° at base 

[Winterdog]

Finally had a low below 40 this morning (39.1) so I thought I would add my fist post of the fall season.  A beautiful morning.

[MossMan]

49 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Davis Vantage Vue. Thing’s been a rock star so far.

All these years of being a weather dork and I’ve never really had a grown up weather station. Only bummer is we live in pretty wind-protected spot but that may change relatively soon. I was spoiled growing up living at the coast with our east and south exposure. Had an analog anemometer that I got when I was 15 and still remember standing watching it during the Inauguration Day Storm pop to 85 mph. Felt like the house was gonna come off it’s foundation. It didn’t.

That’s my only issue. I have only recorded a max speed of 28mph in the nearly 6 years of living here. In reality we have probably hit at least 65mph a few times. 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 45 here after a low of 42. Some pretty dense fog as well.

[LowerGarfield]

Had .23 in the gauge after dumping out the .19 around 9:30pm last night. So pretty nice having just under half an inch in maybe 18 hours or so.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Wow, looks like most people got colder than me. Only made it down to 41.7, garden lives another day!

[Timmy]

12z- gfs is wetter over the next week, gem is trending drier.  Let the model wars begin.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Timmy said:

12z- gfs is wetter over the next week, gem is trending drier.  Let the model wars begin.

I could be wrong, but I feel like the GEM is just terrible with precip coverage and amounts. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I could be wrong, but I feel like the GEM is just terrible with precip coverage and amounts. 

In terms of accuracy, ECMWF > GFS > GEM.

[the_convergence_zone]

First sub-50 for me last night, 48.4. 

I'm probably a month away from getting down to the 30s at night, my first hard freeze is usually early-to-mid November at the earliest. My zinnias look so nice right now, I wouldn't want them to get zapped this early in the year. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

First sub-50 for me last night, 48.4. 

I'm probably a month away from getting down to the 30s at night, my first hard freeze is usually mid-November at the earliest. My zinnias look so nice right now, I wouldn't want them to get zapped this early in the year. 

Wild that you are only 2.5 hrs away from me and we have a 6-8 week difference in first freeze

[the_convergence_zone]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In terms of accuracy, ECMWF > GFS > GEM.

The EPS never locked in to anything and unfortunately it seems to be settling on the drier solution on Monday, at least within Puget Sound. However, the second storm on Tue-Wed has trended wetter. Still too much spread in the ensembles to be sure of anything though, around 20-25% of 06Z EPS members still have a wet Monday. 

[Timmy]

Gfs looks great even within 200 hours

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Wild that you are only 2.5 hrs away from me and we have a 6-8 week difference in first freeze

I am in a spot that is about as warm as it gets within Seattle -- I'm on the east-facing side of a slope (I'm at 150 ft, the top of the hill is roughly 350 ft, the bottom is sea level). I have influence from both UHI and from Puget Sound. My low temperatures are usually similar to Sea-Tac airport, sometimes a bit warmer. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Wow, looks like most people got colder than me. Only made it down to 41.7, garden lives another day!

Pretty strong inversion last night.  Your higher elevation probably helped keep you warmer.  There is a station at 1200ft that’s not too far from me and they had a low in the mid 50s last night. 

[ShawniganLake]

45 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Wild that you are only 2.5 hrs away from me and we have a 6-8 week difference in first freeze

I’d bet if you go down near the water in Port Angeles there are places that have gone an entire season without a single freeze. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d bet if you go down near the water in Port Angeles there are places that have gone an entire season without a single freeze. 

Possibly, but not the last few seasons

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Possibly, but not the last few seasons

The last season without an official Freeze at Victoria (Gonzales) was 2002-2003. 
 

Moderate El Niño, similar to how this year is shaping up.   

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Pretty strong inversion last night.  Your higher elevation probably helped keep you warmer.  There is a station at 1200ft that’s not too far from me and they had a low in the mid 50s last night. 

It was warmer up here than in the valley last night.   

We made to December 4th without a freeze in 2016.   It snowed before it froze... both happened the same day.   We had roses still in bloom that morning.

[BLI snowman]

25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d bet if you go down near the water in Port Angeles there are places that have gone an entire season without a single freeze. 

The old station in downtown Port Angeles had a few close calls but never anything official. 30 in 2002-03 and 30 in 1999-00 was it.

Downtown Portland only bottomed out at 33 in the 1933-34 season, making it one of the only other examples that I can think of in the region.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It does appear as if we are deviating already from years like 1952, 1991, and 2002.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

The old station in downtown Port Angeles had a few close calls but never anything official. 30 in 2002-03 and 30 in 1999-00 was it.

Downtown Portland only bottomed out at 33 in the 1933-34 season, making it one of the only other examples that I can think of in the region.

1933-34 would have been a real drag. 

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1933-34 would have been a real drag. 

December was pretty epic, at least. Insane flooding and insane cold just to the north.

Edited September 21 by BLI snowman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

December was pretty epic, at least. Insane flooding and insane cold just to the north.

Have a feeling we will have some fun weather to track this winter. Just might not be in our area.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks wetter with the main front Monday compared to its 00Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF looks wetter with the main front Monday compared to its 00Z run.

Thanks for the update.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

Amazes me that it dropped to 35° this am at OLM wonder if they had any spotty frost. 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Through Tuesday...

[the_convergence_zone]

Seattle Public Utilities is asking us to conserve water due to a "forecast of continued dry conditions". 

Umm...

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Amazes me that it dropped to 35° this am at OLM wonder if they had any spotty frost. 

 

 

At 35 I am sure it was way more than spotty

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'm going out on a limb and say we could see a possible windstorm this year. Maybe the storm that's coming in on Sunday and Monday. Just by what I see in the last couple of model runs. It's just a feeling. I could be wrong but I think it's a possibility 🌬

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Through Tuesday...

A little over an inch here. Not a huge event, but should keep the grass green.

[ShawniganLake]

40 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The old station in downtown Port Angeles had a few close calls but never anything official. 30 in 2002-03 and 30 in 1999-00 was it.

Downtown Portland only bottomed out at 33 in the 1933-34 season, making it one of the only other examples that I can think of in the region.

Looks like Victoria Gonzales pulled it off in 1925-26, 1939-40, and 1999-00.   Port Angeles is likely a little more protected than Victoria Gonzales though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Small step back on the EURO, but still a solid soaking. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A little over an inch here. Not a huge event, but should keep the grass green.

That's a pretty low bar.   Your grass would stay green now until winter dormancy regardless of how much rain falls.   

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looks like Victoria Gonzales pulled it off in 1925-26, 1939-40, and 1999-00.   Port Angeles is likely a little more protected than Victoria Gonzales though. 

Some other big Nino years there!

Also makes you realize that we're likely living on borrowed time when it comes to some of our winter warm extremes and finally blowing past all of the benchmarks of 100 years ago, as other regions have done recently. And as other seasons have done here. It's only a matter of time before we see some historically unprecedented stuff in DJF.

[TT-SEA]

Not as crazy as the 00Z run... but 12Z EPS is still quite wet over next 2 weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Some other big Nino years there!

Also makes you realize that we're likely living on borrowed time when it comes to some of our winter warm extremes and finally blowing past all of the benchmarks of 100 years ago, as other regions have done recently. And as other seasons have done here. It's only a matter of time before we see some historically unprecedented stuff in DJF.

I like not to think about it. 

[Meatyorologist]

32 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Some other big Nino years there!

Also makes you realize that we're likely living on borrowed time when it comes to some of our winter warm extremes and finally blowing past all of the benchmarks of 100 years ago, as other regions have done recently. And as other seasons have done here. It's only a matter of time before we see some historically unprecedented stuff in DJF.

Someone's gonna stay 40F+ all winter before 2070.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Someone's gonna stay 40F+ all winter before 2070.

Tim

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim

If that's the case I hope he stays between 40-42F all winter

i kid, i kid, i'm not a total psycho

[SilverFallsAndrew]

New house on the market about a mile away for anyone interested in living at 1600'. The seller commented on the local FB page the main reason they are moving is they could not handle the snow last winter. They only lived here a year. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/19724-De-Santis-Ln-SE-Silverton-OR-97381/2063282179_zpid/

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Someone's gonna stay 40F+ all winter before 2070.

I thought the world would end by 2030 due to climate change. 

[TacomaWx]

64 here after a low of 44 this morning. Very nice day. 

[T-Town]

24 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

I thought the world would end by 2030 due to climate change. 

The world will be here but we’ll all be dead. So cheer up!