September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

If the station doesn’t update then it has to be an inaccurate reading. I have always felt the SEA station doesn’t accurately read rainfall but that’s just my novice opinion. 

Up to .09 in the last hour now... cell is still right over airport.  

[TT-SEA]

And now updated to .14 in the last hour.    That makes more sense!  

.35 since 5 p.m.

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wow 68.5 dBz!

Def some hail in that one.

[Phil]

Another IOD spike, similar to 2019.

[Phil]

QBO/shear stress most similar to 1986/87 and 1997/98, followed by 1991/92 and 2002/03.

And exact opposite of 1982/83 and 2018/19.

[Phil]

But we’re definitely ahead of 1997/98’s pace on shear descent. For all intents and purposes the lower tropical strat projected as +QBO (warm/shallow TUT) most of that winter.

[Slushy Inch]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Another IOD spike, similar to 2019.

But was does it mean?

[HuskyMaestro]

Calm night with clouds clearing out at 57F. Got tickets for the Kraken game next Monday with dad so I can't wait! First game at CPA too, about time

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looks like there could be rotation in this cell. It's getting really late. I need to go to bed. Hopefully I won't miss anything when I'm asleep...lol

[jcmcgaffey]

20 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Calm night with clouds clearing out at 57F. Got tickets for the Kraken game next Monday with dad so I can't wait! First game at CPA too, about time

Don’t miss the pregame intro. Best intro of all Seattle sports. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

It looks like a tornado signature almost now.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Looks like there could be rotation in this cell. It's getting really late. I need to go to bed. Hopefully I won't miss anything when I'm asleep...lol

Good posts tonight. It's kind of fun starting off fall so active. Have a good night.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

It looks like a tornado signature almost now.

Impressive cell heading towards Eagle Creek. Velocities is rather interesting.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I widened out the radar. Looks like an intense line of showers and maybe thunderstorms are forming further West of me.

[Slushy Inch]

Even though it just means mountain snow. Every run with this pattern should be posted.

[Meatyorologist]

This would be nice. Warm, clear day to trick the lawn into blooming, then the storm train resumes.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Even though it just means mountain snow. Every run with this pattern should be posted.

Poor Tim.

And me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

53 minutes ago, Phil said:

Poor Tim.

And me.

Gonna be a painful

winter for you as we overachieve again.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna be a painful

winter for you as we overachieve again.

I love your dramatic

breaks in your posts.

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Even though it just means mountain snow. Every run with this pattern should be posted.

If that verified, at face value it would be near record early season snow for the Cascades. There's no good long term stations at elevation in the North Cascades, but at least since the 80s no station has really picked up more than a couple feet of snow in the first half of October.

For Paradise at 5,400' near Mt. Rainier, the best early season snow year in history was 1968 when almost 70" fell during the first half of the month, most of that coming from October 10-15. Other than that, only one year in the last 50 (1984), has exceeded 30" of snowfall in the first half of the month.

[runninthruda206]

Heavy rain in Fremont rn 

[Front Ranger]

Not the ideal time of year, but still a beautiful pattern for PNW cold weather lovers.

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here comes the secondary low 🌬

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'll do a quick post. I'm getting ready for work. The secondary low looks impressive on the model runs. Wonder if it may over preform than what the models are showing 🌧🌬

[TT-SEA]

SEA set a daily rainfall record yesterday... beating previous record set in 2020.

Now at 2.28 inches for the month.  

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

Poor Tim.

And me.

Ehhh... a cold, stormy October is expected with a Nino.    And on the flip side... the second half of winter and spring will probably be warmer and drier than normal.   

[AlTahoe]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

QBO/shear stress most similar to 1986/87 and 1997/98, followed by 1991/92 and 2002/03.

And exact opposite of 1982/83 and 2018/19.

86-87 was one of the driest years for California and 97-98 was one of the wettest. not much to go off of with those Analogs. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

0.73" from the previous system. Looks like many to my south got over an inch.

[TacomaWx]

42 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

0.73" from the previous system. Looks like many to my south got over an inch.

1.12” here yesterday alone. 1.64” storm total. 

[TacomaWx]

After yesterdays deluge we’re up to 2.25” of rain this month. Should get more before the month ends too! 

[the_convergence_zone]

1.89” ended up being my total. Gotta love storms with a southerly fetch (at least in early fall, not when they have 7,500 ft snow levels in December). 

[T-Town]

2.51 inches of rain here mtd. Compare that to .51 in August and .06 in July. 

[MossMan]

.04” so far on the day, 1.96” for the month. 
Currently mostly cloudy and 52 degrees. 

[MossMan]

11 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like '76.

Close! ‘75! 

[RentonHill]

Last nights EPS

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

54F and we got another 0.1" of rain overnight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

54F and we got another 0.1" of rain overnight.

Score! Half an inch here overnight. Still running behind SLE on the month. It’s okay, they need it more than us!

[iFred]

3 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I'll do a quick post. I'm getting ready for work. The secondary low looks impressive on the model runs. Wonder if it may over preform than what the models are showing 🌧🌬

Nice windstorm 24h out.

[Phil]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna be a painful

winter for you as we overachieve again.

In all seriousness, with the exact right roll of the dice this could indeed happen in Nov/Dec.  Not necessarily likely, but there are ways for it to happen.

But starting in January it looks pretty d**n bleak for you, brother. Not going to lie.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

86-87 was one of the driest years for California and 97-98 was one of the wettest. not much to go off of with those Analogs. 

Correct the ENSO/LP structure very different between those two years. Was only referring to shear stress/QBO here, obviously other factors need to be considered in analog methods for seasonal projection.

ENSO/LP structure most similar to 1997/98 at this time, but BDC/QBO and off-domain circulation definitely different this year.

[T-Town]

The calm between the storms. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I thought I would post this for everyone. 

https://youtu.be/fvjk_RRNRYY?si=7UvxVbGwJg3nPW-_

[ShawniganLake]

Peak wind along Vancouver island with yesterdays storm was 94 mph.  So this storm fell just short of a Cat 2 hurricane. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Score! Half an inch here overnight. Still running behind SLE on the month. It’s okay, they need it more than us!

That’s how I feel about most of the moisture going south of me on the last one. I had more rain IMBY through the summer months than most here did. Plus I still got a good soaking yesterday,

[Cascadia_Wx]

Such a lovely change in the weather the last few days. And it looks to stay fall like for the next week or more. Such a nice change from last year.

Ended up with a 68/56 on Saturday, mostly cloudy with light rain developing late.

Sunday was very cool with a 61/53 spread here. Dry start with rain and windy conditions (breezy ESE wind) much of the afternoon and evening. Went mushroom hunting in the mountains above Carson and the conditions were perfect.

Yesterday was a little milder but still on the cool side with a 64/56 spread. SW winds. Rain much of the day, with some periods of very heavy rain last evening.

Mostly cloudy with a low of 54 this morning. Have picked up just over 1.25” rain since Saturday.

[Randyc321]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

0.73" from the previous system. Looks like many to my south got over an inch.

1.46" total for my house.  Way more than I expected.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A windy October afternoon in Coos Bay some 6 decades ago. 

[LowerGarfield]

Had about .15 this morning so slight over performance here. Overcast today. Our high way 81F yesterday but it felt much cooler than that due to the west and then east winds.

[Snownerd3000]

 

[Randyc321]

Light rain here again now.  Radar looks nice for later on.