September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think their analog pool is based off of similar years in terms of ONI, SOI, and that are either PDO neutral or negative. So it seems the PDO is weighted less as it is off the charts negative right now.

By that logic, why include 51/52 which wasn’t even a niño, but leave out 1957/58, which was a strong niño/-PDO? Doesn’t make any sense to me. Like, there is literally zero overlap between this year and 51/52. Couldn’t be more opposite.

I hate the 97/98 analog. One of the worst winters on record out here. But it’s one of the best analogs available. And (relatively) recent. Can’t deny that.

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I kinda hate all y’all getting rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

By that logic, why include 51/52 which wasn’t even a niño, but leave out 1957/58, which was a strong niño/-PDO? Doesn’t make any sense to me. Like, there is literally zero overlap between this year and 51/52. Couldn’t be more opposite.

I hate the 97/98 analog. One of the worst winters on record out here. But it’s one of the best analogs available. And (relatively) recent. Can’t deny that.

His chart shows ONI peaking around +1.2 in the fall of 1951...

[Cascadia_Wx]

Been pretty much bone dry here today with breezy SW winds, some sunbreaks, and warmer than expected temps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Been pretty much bone dry here today with breezy SW winds, some sunbreaks, and warmer than expected temps.

I noticed PDX was torching. 

[the_convergence_zone]

46 minutes ago, Phil said:

By that logic, why include 51/52 which wasn’t even a niño, but leave out 1957/58, which was a strong niño/-PDO? Doesn’t make any sense to me. Like, there is literally zero overlap between this year and 51/52. Couldn’t be more opposite.

I hate the 97/98 analog. One of the worst winters on record out here. But it’s one of the best analogs available. And (relatively) recent. Can’t deny that.

The dynamical models seem to agree with that assessment, it looks like they are predicting a repeat of 97-98 around here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The dynamical models seem to agree with that assessment, it looks like they are predicting a repeat of 97-98 around here. 

I think you will be pleasantly surprised. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy cow!

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

By that logic, why include 51/52 which wasn’t even a niño, but leave out 1957/58, which was a strong niño/-PDO? Doesn’t make any sense to me. Like, there is literally zero overlap between this year and 51/52. Couldn’t be more opposite.

I hate the 97/98 analog. One of the worst winters on record out here. But it’s one of the best analogs available. And (relatively) recent. Can’t deny that.

The PDO was quite positive by this point in 1957. Ditto for 1997.

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

That’s actually a very good match in the areas that matter. Wish it wasn’t the case, but can’t deny it.

The higher latitude SSTs don’t affect atmospheric circulation in the way those warm, tropical SSTs do. For multiple reasons.

And what about the PDO comment?  Is it more of a lagging indicator of other teleconnects or have actual effects on patterns? I found this graphic which I have no idea the years its referencing. 

Wx4cast: Teleconnections What the Heck Are They Part 3

[Slushy Inch]

Now that’s deep! First sub 50 high?

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

By that logic, why include 51/52 which wasn’t even a niño, but leave out 1957/58, which was a strong niño/-PDO? Doesn’t make any sense to me. Like, there is literally zero overlap between this year and 51/52. Couldn’t be more opposite.

I hate the 97/98 analog. One of the worst winters on record out here. But it’s one of the best analogs available. And (relatively) recent. Can’t deny that.

U.S. winter temperatures for every El Niño since 1950 | NOAA Climate.gov

Why is it represented here?  Its weak but still shown as being el nino.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Now that’s deep! First sub 50 high?

I feel like we always get the money pattern and the wrong time. Make that stay still until November. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Holy cow!

Too south-focused. Throw it out.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I feel like we always get the money pattern and the wrong time. Make that stay still until November. 

May be like that winter back in the early 90’s which blew its wad in October and sucked rocks the entire rest of the season.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Nice. ️ That scud outflow or the updraft?

Updraft ahead of the storm with outflow surging underneath

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

May be like that winter back in the early 90’s which blew its wad in October and sucked rocks the entire rest of the season.

91/92

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Been pretty much bone dry here today with breezy SW winds, some sunbreaks, and warmer than expected temps.

Mostly dry here too but we had a couple of quick downpours. Yesterday night's brief downpour was crazy intense. So far we've had 1.17" of rain with this.

[TT-SEA]

65 for a high at SEA today with another .30 this afternoon.   

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looked at the 22Z HRRR. Here are a couple of snapshots. If this verifies, Portland would see strong winds around 2am and Seattle around 3pm. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

47 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Looked at the 22Z HRRR. Here are a couple of snapshots. If this verifies, Portland would see strong winds around 2am and Seattle around 3pm. 

Gives you an idea of how insane the Columbus Day storm was here as a system like this one is quite windy up there but is relatively calm here comparatively.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

65 for a high at SEA today with another .30 this afternoon.   

No longer running a positive departure for the month there.

[TacomaWx]

Looks like a strong cell is on its way. Lull in the rain now but we’ve had 0.26” so far today and 2.50” for the month. Could end the month close to 4” of rain potentially. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

33 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

No longer running a positive departure for the month there.

They are with respect to rainfall!

[Meatyorologist]

Today is about as dynamically favorable for squally weather as you can get here. Decent instability, shallow and cool boundary layer, intense horizontal and vertical wind shear. Ended up with multiple rounds of downpours as a result, with a bolt to boot. More to come too.

[Meatyorologist]

Lots of blessings to come. Given how dynamic this low is, there could be some overperforming again.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here's the Mid-level water vapor loop. Look at the explosion of clouds with the secondary low. Is it me or is this storm moving really fast? I'm wondering if the jet stream is helping the low develop does anyone know how strong the Jetstream is right now and where it's located? 

[MossMan]

Pretty good dumpage currently!! 

[Skagit Weather]

Dry day so far up here. Nice we over performed on Saturday because the last three days have been pretty unimpressive. High of only 62F though.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Dry day so far up here. Nice we over performed on Saturday because the last three days have been pretty unimpressive. High of only 62F though.

Up to .17” here. 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

His chart shows ONI peaking around +1.2 in the fall of 1951...

Whoops I conflated 50/51 with 51/52. That’s my bad.

Still don’t see the structural similarities with this year though. At the very least 57/58 is astronomically better in both evolutionary conduits of the ENSO and off-domain forcings.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Whoops I conflated 50/51 with 51/52.

Still don’t see the structural similarities with this year though.

I hate when I confuse those two years.

[SnowySeeker50]

Up to .50" now for the day

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I hate when I confuse those two years.

I thought I had all ENSOs memorized back to WWII. Guess I’m not as sharp as I thought.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE up to about 2” Of rain on the month .

[Front Ranger]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE up to about 2” Of rain on the month .

Second wetter than normal month in a row. What a change from last year.

[Slushy Inch]

Quite a bit of lightning off the coast. 100s of strikes.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Second wetter than normal month in a row. What a change from last year.

Hey how’s Denver’s 2023 shaping up so far??

[Slushy Inch]

Another cool run. Actually some B.C high pressure this time.

[Anti Marine Layer]

37 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Another cool run. Actually some B.C high pressure this time.

Looks more like GOA high pressure.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I thought I had all ENSOs memorized back to WWII. Guess I’m not as sharp as I thought.  

You should have all ENSOs memorized back to WWIII if that starts this year.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

And what about the PDO comment?  Is it more of a lagging indicator of other teleconnects or have actual effects on patterns? I found this graphic which I have no idea the years its referencing. 

Wx4cast: Teleconnections What the Heck Are They Part 3

The PDO isn’t an indicator of anything other than what’s already happened, and the differences between those maps are caused by other factors.

The PDO is very negative *now* because we just had 3 straight years of unwavering La Niña. It’s an echo of that.

I suspect the PDO will likely rocket upwards into a very positive state over the next 2-3 years. For a slew of reasons that I’m too tired to explain at 2AM.  

[Meatyorologist]

[Meatyorologist]

This pattern config anytime after Halloween...

[Meatyorologist]

 

Wow. What a dynamic storm. I imagine the convective enhancement modeled by the NAM is taking shape in some part here. Oh what I would give to be on a boat out there to measure what's really going on.

SPC mesoanalysis shows this thing stronger and further north than modeled... A classic error correct for maturing midlatitude cyclones as they approach our coastline.

[Cloud]

Rain is moving back in and an impressive looking radar.

[Ken in Wood Village]

You can see the low on radar and the satellite picture. Beautiful 🌧🌬

[TT-SEA]

SEA is now at 3 inches of rain for September with heavy rain moving in again.

3+ inches of rain at SEA in September is not too common... its happened 14 times since 1945.    It did not happen at all from 1982-1996 including 3 years in that period when September was almost totally dry (1990, 1991, 1993).    But has now happened 5 times just since 2010.    A wet September seems to be a little more common in our new climate regime (last year being a notable exception).

The all time record for September was set in 2013 with 6.17 inches at SEA.   Of course that was followed by an extremely dry October - December that year.

[TT-SEA]

Even with the wet September... SEA is going to end the water year about 7 inches below normal.   

SEA is currently at -5.85 for the calendar year which could be still be made up in the next 3 months.