September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[iFred]

52 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

His internet persona is an extremely unlikable guy who happens to be good at making pretty graphics. 

Yeah, Dr Sharpie is an outright asshole. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think El Nino is an overplayed card. We'll see if I am still saying that in six months. At the end of the day though, it's next winter that is due/destined to be a dud IMO. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

65/50 so far today at SLE. 56/48 at mi casa.

[Blizzard777]

2.76 inches of rain showing for September my place although I haven’t been there much. In fact I’m still not there ! Hope you’re all doing well and looks like a parade of storms paid you all a visit!  C-zone must be active as my nest cam is showing buildup to the north but blue skies overhead. 
I’m still in the SW exploring but unfortunately monsoons have been none existent where I’ve been.  Just lots O Sun! 
Fossil Creek (spring) has the pretty water and cool cave.  Camelback hike where you see the boulder field….it’s a scramble hike down here in Scottsdale  and beautiful sunset last night here in Estrella Az.  

[Blizzard777]

SouthHill frosty, congrats on the little (I mean big one) one

Rubus…I’ll need to check that hike out! Nice elevation gain as well.

BLI, well done out here exploring with me!!! 

[Omegaraptor]

52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

65/50 so far today at SLE. 56/48 at mi casa.

Exceeding dry adiabatic lapse rate!

[Skagit Weather]

4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

This is how you end a fire season.

But also, I mean like...

...one week does not a month make. Although this may be a bit underdone. Pretty sure we're closer to average up here than this map suggests.

[Cold Snap]

Some of the local Mets are talking about an inversion happening if the ridging happens. Wouldn’t be surprised if things turned out that way.

[Phishy Wx]

27 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

But also, I mean like...

...one week does not a month make. Although this may be a bit underdone. Pretty sure we're closer to average up here than this map suggests.

indeed, cherry picking never paints the actual picture

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

34 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

But also, I mean like...

...one week does not a month make. Although this may be a bit underdone. Pretty sure we're closer to average up here than this map suggests.

It’s close to green on the map at OLM tho 

[TT-SEA]

Interesting satellite pic this evening... c-zone over Seattle and the incoming system going south and completely clear skies to the north of that system over the ocean.

[TT-SEA]

40 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

But also, I mean like...

...one week does not a month make. Although this may be a bit underdone. Pretty sure we're closer to average up here than this map suggests.

Definitely underdone around Seattle at least.   SEA is at 213% of normal for the entire month and some of our posters in Seattle have reported even more than SEA for the month.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

3.14” of rain so far month. Wetter than 2019 (2.84”) but behind 2021 (4.06”). Much better than 2022 (0.11”). Our wettest September is 2013 (5.95”) 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

He is/was, I believe, even older than me, and I am one of the older people here. So the thought that might have happened occurred to me as well. And if none of his next of kin knows about this forum, nobody would have told us. Anyone know his entire real name? Not to post it here, but to run a few web searches if you can. If he did pass away, I don't think it would be that hard to find out.

I’d never have guessed you were old based on your posting style. Until you posted those pics a few weeks ago I’d always pictured you as a 30-something hippie with a nose ring.  

[Slushy Inch]

8 hours ago, RentonHill said:

amazing how the models were so locked into troughing a few days ago for this period and have completely flipped. 

I jinxed it by posting every run with the good pattern. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Some of the local Mets are talking about an inversion happening if the ridging happens. Wouldn’t be surprised if things turned out that way.

Last October didn’t end up like that! It depends on the winds. 

[Phil]

2002 has been popping up more frequently of late.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

2002 has been popping up more frequently of late.

1985!!! 

[HuskyMaestro]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Some of the local Mets are talking about an inversion happening if the ridging happens. Wouldn’t be surprised if things turned out that way.

Just in time for a spooky Silent Hill PNW October?

[Phil]

I think this is the driest analog super-ensemble mean I’ve ever seen in the west. And further amplifies from D+8 to D+11.

Not sure why this should be the case. Unless there’s a systemic problem with guidance, I am stumped as to why this wouldn’t show up in LP analog pools beforehand.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think this is the driest analog super-ensemble mean I’ve ever seen in the west. And further amplifies from D+8 to D+11.

Not sure why this should be the case. Unless there’s a systemic problem with guidance, I am stumped as to why this wouldn’t show up in LP analog pools beforehand.

has anyone checked on the atlantic current recently??

[MossMan]

Wish I could have taken a drive today! 
Also major rumbling going on outside which is also shaking the house at times, but I’m pretty sure it’s military aircraft and not thunder. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

2002 has been popping up more frequently of late.

1951, a solid analog. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Certainly not dry in the west right now. Light rain and 53.

[MossMan]

.09” so far on the day, 2.34” for the month. 

[Phishy Wx]

local news said after some showers tonight we're going to be dry over here for the next at least week and a half

[Phishy Wx]

spokane has also been below normal on precip at the airport station for 8 of the 9 months this year.  pretty solid drought.  we need all the rain we can get. a drier than normal winter is bad news for next year (summer)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

I’d never have guessed you were old based on your posting style. Until you posted those pics a few weeks ago I’d always pictured you as a 30-something hippie with a nose ring.  

I did actually have one of those at one time but about five or six years ago got tired of it and took it out.

[Anti Marine Layer]

No rain, no gain

[AmunRAEL]

Saturday night/Sunday morning looking chilly

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

But also, I mean like...

...one week does not a month make. Although this may be a bit underdone. Pretty sure we're closer to average up here than this map suggests.

It's not how the month began, it's how it ended.

Fire season is done.

[Phil]

There’s a second area of subsidence near the dateline that is actually quasi-La Niña like (the more anomalous subsidence in the E-IO/MC does reflect El Niño/+IOD though).

Obviously the niña-ish dateline subsidence signal is intraseasonal (transient) in nature, but perhaps it could explain the ridgier pattern developing in the west next month.

Ironic that the change to more niña/p4 RMM theme could be what’s bringing about the ridge. In the middle of winter that would teleconnect to a more -PNA/-TNH pattern up there.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's not how the month began, it's how it ended.

Fire season is done.

Totally agree... its very wet now across the area and fire season is done which was your original point.  

(@Port Angeles Foothiller force field notwithstanding)

 

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

indeed, cherry picking never paints the actual picture

There was nothing cherry-picked. That's the most recent week, that's what has definitively ended the fire season.

[Eastwind]

The 00z GEM shows strong offshore flow a little over a week from now as cold air slides into Montana. The east winds will be rippin!
 

 

 

[Phil]

And have to say the LP signal projecting on VP200 anoms is kind of weird. At least to date. Clearly the +IOD is constructively resonating with the east-based nature of this El Niño event (also explains the active Atlantic hurricane despite the powerful niño).

The most coherent LP signal here is the subsidence over the E-IO/IPWP domain, not over the Pacific. So if your analogs have -IOD during the fall/winter rolled forward, they probably won’t work.

[Cold Snap]

3 hours ago, RentonHill said:

has anyone checked on the atlantic current recently??

Atlantic is already on Rina which is basically on pace with 2005 named storms wise.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 hours ago, Blizzard777 said:

SouthHill frosty, congrats on the little (I mean big one) one

Rubus…I’ll need to check that hike out! Nice elevation gain as well.

BLI, well done out here exploring with me!!! 

Preciate it man! Hope the southwest is treating you well!

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Atlantic is already on Rina which is basically on pace with 2005 named storms wise.

Unprecedented in the post-WWII era to have such activity during a developing strong El Niño. Have to back to at least the 20s/30s for the last instance of developing El Niño constero —> EPAC-canonical El Niño. There were some in the mid/late 19th century too.

+IOD and east-based emergence of the niño definitely factors in driving that outcome, along with residual -PMM.

[RentonHill]

21 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Atlantic is already on Rina which is basically on pace with 2005 named storms wise.

I was referencing day after tomorrow but thank you nonetheless for the info!