September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phishy Wx]

41 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There was nothing cherry-picked. That's the most recent week, that's what has definitively ended the fire season.

its still dry as shiit here and has been 8 of the 9 months this year.  a showery couple weeks hasn't solved anything (at least in E WA)

[westcoastexpat]

55 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Atlantic is already on Rina which is basically on pace with 2005 named storms wise.

The historically high sea surface temps this summer in the Atlantic certainly have played a  significant role in the active hurricane season.

[Phishy Wx]

 

Snowing on Mt Spokane.  not sure why Twitter thinks its 'sensitive' material.  lol elroy

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

Snowing on Mt Spokane.  not sure why Twitter thinks its 'sensitive' material.  lol elroy

Heat miser trigger warning.

[iFred]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

Still no Jim? Even in 2015 he was posting by now.  

Pretty sure he is locked out of his account. After the hack last spring, all admin accounts were reset.

He’ll find his way back.

[Dan the Weatherman]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Unprecedented in the post-WWII era to have such activity during a developing strong El Niño. Have to back to at least the 20s/30s for the last instance of developing El Niño constero —> EPAC-canonical El Niño. There were some in the mid/late 19th century too.

+IOD and east-based emergence of the niño definitely factors in driving that outcome, along with residual -PMM.

Is the current long-standing warm phase of the AMO also contributing to this activity in the Atlantic this season?

[Cold Snap]

Very foggy in the Snoqualmie valley right now. Visibility is easily a quarter of a mile or less right now. At least on the hill coming down from Redmond ridge.

[Cold Snap]

The fog is actually on both sides of the valley but for some reason it’s kind of more clear in the middle of the valley.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

The fog is actually on both sides of the valley but for some reason it’s kind of more clear in the middle of the valley.

River effect? 

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

Pretty sure he is locked out of his account. After the hack last spring, all admin accounts were reset.

He’ll find his way back.

He could make a new email to reach out.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully @MR.SNOWMIZER shows up soon. That guy is an absolute class act. One of the kindest people I've ever known. Along with @SilverFallsAndrew & @Meatyorologist Thank y'all for believing in me and keeping me positive. Looking forward to the winter, even if it's Denver Broncos-status.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looks like the models are bringing back the low for Monday night into Tuesday.

One thing I have learned from watching the models, fall patterns are very unpredictable. The models will show a low on one day then a couple of runs later it will take it away then bring it back a couple of runs later. It's like a yo yo. This is why the 3 to 5 day out is so critical now. Anything out 6 to 7 days is fantasy land and not set in stone. 

The low on Monday night and Tuesday is still a ways out so anything can happen with the models still. Have a good day  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice band of rain moving through NW Oregon. Out on the porch enjoying the sounds of nature. Great thing about this time of year is most of the time the rain comes without a ton of wind and it’s fairly mild, hence sitting out on the porch at 4:30am is a pleasant experience. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to be a very wet day across much of Oregon. 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

Is the current long-standing warm phase of the AMO also contributing to this activity in the Atlantic this season?

Yes, but I’d highlight the +AMM component in particular. The AMO index is overly broad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Might not be a good October to lead a wagon train across the Sierras… 

[Phil]

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1706725991538999802?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Phil]

https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1706553260138696790?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another 0.24” of rain overnight. Finally pushes us a little past SLE in the month and over 2.5”. Pretty much a normal September here. Has felt amazing!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rest in power Senator Feinstein. 

[MossMan]

Currently 40.5.  Sooo close to the first 30’s of the season. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 40.5.  Sooo close to the first 30’s of the season. 

39.9 here! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

34.5, widespread frost. 98 day growing season. Much less than the 130 I got last season

[Phishy Wx]

Fog and 40

[ShawniganLake]

39.2F.  So first sub 40 of the season. 

[Phishy Wx]

[MossMan]

The views from this morning’s 3 minute drive to work. 

[Phil]

My sisters neighborhood in Brooklyn is completely flooded. Water pouring into ground floor apartments.

Concrete and 7” of rain doesn’t mix well.

[TT-SEA]

51 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

34.5, widespread frost. 98 day growing season. Much less than the 130 I got last season

98 days?  That is a crazy stat.  

We planted our garden in late April and certainly have not had any frost since.    That was 150 days ago now.     Your growing season didn't start until the 3rd week of June?    I think that would be late for Fairbanks Alaska.

This was our garden about 98 days ago on June 21st.  Definitely not the start of the growing season.  

[TT-SEA]

Just looked it up... average growing season is Fairbanks is 110 days.    They haven't had a growing season under 100 days in almost 30 years (1996 at 99 days). 

[AmunRAEL]

From The Weather Channel Android App: https://weather.com/forecast/national/video/your-october-temperature-outlook?pl=pl-the-latest

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

98 days?  That is a crazy stat.  

We planted our garden in late April and certainly have not had any frost since.    That was 150 days ago now.     Your growing season didn't start until the 3rd week of June?    I think that would be late for Fairbanks Alaska.

This was our garden about 98 days ago on June 21st.  Definitely not the start of the growing season.  

Last frost was June 20th. Today was first frost of Fall. Growing season for me is frost to frost. I of course extended this with covers and greenhouses, but the true outside season was 98 days.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Last frost was June 20th. Today was first frost of Fall. Growing season for me is frost to frost. I of course extended this with covers and greenhouses, but the true outside season was 98 days.

Absolutely crazy because summer basically started in late April this year.    

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Absolutely crazy because summer basically started in late April this year.    

It has been cold and dry for a long time. We had the 3 day May heat wave and then went back into the tank with the clear nights. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It has been cold and dry for a long time. We had the 3 day May heat wave and then went back into the tank with the clear nights. 

Fairbanks was above freezing from May 7th - September 22nd this year for a growing season of 136 days.  

SEA was +3.4 for May which was the second warmest May ever recorded.    The second half of spring was about as good as it gets for gardening here.    

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fairbanks was above freezing from May 7th - September 22nd this year for a growing season of 136 days.  

SEA was +3.4 for May which was the second warmest May ever recorded.    The second half of spring was about as good as it gets for gardening here.    

It was frustrating. The frosts in June were all of the 35-37 degree variety, but enough to stunt young veggies

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It was frustrating. The frosts in June were all of the 35-37 degree variety, but enough to stunt young veggies

I think your definition of growing season is slightly different than the standard.

The USDA actually defines the end of growing season when the temperature reaches 28 degrees which is considered a killing freeze.    But even using 32 degrees... your growing season was 38 days shorter than Fairbanks.   That is pretty amazing.  

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/climateSupport/wetlandsClimateTables/growingSeasonDatesLength

 The growing season can be approximated as the period of time between the average date of the last killing frost in the spring to the average date of the first killing frost in the fall. This represents a temperature threshold of 28 degrees F or lower at a frequency of 5 years in 10.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think your definition of growing season is slightly different than the standard.

The USDA actually defines the end of growing season when the temperature reaches 28 degrees which is considered a killing freeze.    But even using 32 degrees... your growing season was 38 days shorter than Fairbanks.   That is pretty amazing.  

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/climateSupport/wetlandsClimateTables/growingSeasonDatesLength

 The growing season can be approximated as the period of time between the average date of the last killing frost in the spring to the average date of the first killing frost in the fall. This represents a temperature threshold of 28 degrees F or lower at a frequency of 5 years in 10.

That seems like an aggressive definition. I got down to 34.5 last night and had what will most likely be a killing frost for all my uncovered veggies. Using 32 degrees my growing season is still going as I didn't hit it last night. My more tolerant plants will do okay and the plants I covered and heated, for those the season is longer than Fairbanks. This year I just was on the wrong side of the borderline temps for frost. At the beginning of the season it stunted a lot of stuff and last night ended my flowers, beans, melons, and squash. 

[TT-SEA]

Big differences in the models in terms of how fast the ridge amplifies.   The 12Z GFS shows a little rain on Monday and then the ridge pops up and shunts precip way north... while the ECMWF has been showing warm frontal rain lingering to the north through mid week.  

[the_convergence_zone]

32 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Last frost was June 20th. Today was first frost of Fall. Growing season for me is frost to frost. I of course extended this with covers and greenhouses, but the true outside season was 98 days.

You have an incredible microclimate. That must be one of the coldest spots in all of the western Washington lowlands.