September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

@Black Hole @Andie I think my friends back in PHX will also agree to say "Sayonara" to the Summer of 2023.  PHX set a record high of 110F on the 8th and a ridiculous 114F record daily high yesterday!  Today, will likely be the last possilble 110F day of the season as the rest of the month looks like temps FINALLY head downward and I'm seeing some low 90's showing up late month.  Rain chances are also the rise this week.

Our local WGN weather graphic made a big error as I'm a stickler for proper grammar checks...It's NOT supposed to say consecutive days, but instead, it should be referred to as a total of 110F+ days for the year.

 

 

 

[Tom]

It's a rather nice and cool morning, calm winds and clear skies.  Current temp is 55F and heading up to the upper 70's today and the weather along the lakefront should be prime time Autumn weather for the Bear's game.  Looks like a good soaking rain is on the way early tomorrow morning through the afternoon.  It'll feel like an OCT like day with temps in the 60's and dreary weather.  Your quintessential stratiform rain along a west/east frontal boundary.  Kinda like what @OttumwaSnomow looks for!  Hey, I can't complain bc we need the rain. 

 

ORD may have 3 consecutive days in the 60's Mon-Wed...iirc, I don't recall a recent SEP where we've had a string of 60's this early.  Maybe SEP 2013 or '14?  Maybe someone can dig that stat up.

[Clinton]

Man do I like the looks at this 5 day forecast! Unfortunately no significant rain to go along with it.

[Clinton]

The drought is really intensifying for MO and Iowa.  Yesterday was KC 27th consecutive day without measurable rain.

[Andie]

And a big ADIOS to Summer 2023 !! .   
Don’t let the door hit ya on the way out amigo!!!

High of 95 before a week of low 80’s and 20-40% chance of rain!  

[hawkstwelve]

So close yet so far. Rain chances have seemed to do this a lot lately - either it passes by to the north near Hwy 14/Brookings or stays south of Hwy 20/Sioux City. Sioux Falls sits smack in-between and we haven't seen any meaningful precip. The last time we had over a half inch of rainfall was 8/25 while you'd have to go all the way back to 8/6 to find amounts higher than an inch.

Pretty parched here, and apparently staying that way for the next 10 days.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 76/51 there was no rain fall. There were 3 HDD’s the highest wind speed was 16 MPH out of the N. There was 64% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is now down to 76/55 the record high of 94 was set in 1931 and 2013 the record low of 36 was set in 1917 and 1969. The record rain fall amount of 2.76” fell in 1986. Last year it was still a summer like 83/62

[chescowxman]

The first 9 days have been among the warmest starts to September we have ever seen with Glenmoore recording their 6th warmest start (67 years of data) and Western Chester with their 13th warmest (130 years of data) and at Phoenixville 23rd warmest (131 years of data) Many areas across the county have picked up over 0.5" of rain so far today with more on the way. Temps look to fall to well below normal levels by the end of the work week.

Records for today: High 99 (1897) / Low 38 (1975) / Rain 1.74" (2015)

[Niko]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The drought is really intensifying for MO and Iowa.  Yesterday was KC 27th consecutive day without measurable rain.

If I recall correctly, my area was in a drought in the spring and then, these crazy downpours came and erased everything to above normal rainfall. Drought is no longer around. Crazy how M'Nature changes everything in a heart beat.

Btw: hope ya had a great summer bud!

[Clinton]

56 minutes ago, Niko said:

If I recall correctly, my area was in a drought in the spring and then, these crazy downpours came and erased everything to above normal rainfall. Drought is no longer around. Crazy how M'Nature changes everything in a heart beat.

Btw: hope ya had a great summer bud!

It's been a very hot and dry summer, which Is odd because it was also humid.  Several days with a heat index between 120 to 130.  I'll be happy when fall gets here to stay!

[CentralNebWeather]

Pouring rain and 63 degrees. Amazing. Has that late September feel. 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro continues its flopping back and forth with the Monday morning wave of rain.  The latest run is back to being bullish, showing a swath of 1+" through my area.  A few others models have jumped on board, too.

The new Euro run has flopped back to garbage for me.... big jump back south, yet again.  Meanwhile, the GFS has now gone bullish and north.  Even its ensemble mean bulls-eyes Cedar Rapids.  Other models are a mix, some up to an inch, others 0.30-0.50".

[CentralNebWeather]

[Andie]

Gorgeous evening.   
85 with a low of 72. 
Tomorrow a high of 90 with a 40% chance of rain.  
Perfect for Texas. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

17 hours ago, Tom said:

It's a rather nice and cool morning, calm winds and clear skies.  Current temp is 55F and heading up to the upper 70's today and the weather along the lakefront should be prime time Autumn weather for the Bear's game.  Looks like a good soaking rain is on the way early tomorrow morning through the afternoon.  It'll feel like an OCT like day with temps in the 60's and dreary weather.  Your quintessential stratiform rain along a west/east frontal boundary.  Kinda like what @OttumwaSnomow looks for!  Hey, I can't complain bc we need the rain. 

 

ORD may have 3 consecutive days in the 60's Mon-Wed...iirc, I don't recall a recent SEP where we've had a string of 60's this early.  Maybe SEP 2013 or '14?  Maybe someone can dig that stat up.

In the past 30 days Ive had  3 different  sprinkles for a grand total of .20"..   that come after a May with .89.  I did eek out 7 inches of rain between  june 19th thru Aug 11 which  was much more than other in our area got in mid summer. I wouldn't  rate the 2023 drought as bad as 2012 or 2017 both just horrible  here. But 2013 and 2022 seem not on par with  this one (not over).  Oh but trust me there were several other summers  particularly  july aug sept when  Wapello county  was deep into pretty  colors on the drought monitor.  But given the constant deficits  damp soil simply nonexistent  at any level currently.   Horrible. 

[Black Hole]

Not much to add from me today, but still looking like a very pleasant next week. Rain chances looking pretty good for tomorrow and a little lower for Thursday. 

[Tom]

It’s been a while since I’ve seen some decent rain…nice way to wake up and hear the rains pour down from the heavens!  Not much thunder, maybe a rumble or two from this heavy cell that rolled through.

 

[Tom]

6 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

In the past 30 days Ive had  3 different  sprinkles for a grand total of .20"..   that come after a May with .89.  I did eek out 7 inches of rain between  june 19th thru Aug 11 which  was much more than other in our area got in mid summer. I wouldn't  rate the 2023 drought as bad as 2012 or 2017 both just horrible  here. But 2013 and 2022 seem not on par with  this one (not over).  Oh but trust me there were several other summers  particularly  july aug sept when  Wapello county  was deep into pretty  colors on the drought monitor.  But given the constant deficits  damp soil simply nonexistent  at any level currently.   Horrible. 

Nice rain falling in YBY....had a good feeling this event would deliver for you and E IA peeps...how about you @Hawkeye?

[Tom]

How long has it been since we've seen a NWS Alert map so quiet???  It's almost fitting as our Nation remembers the attacks on 9-11-2001.  #NeverForget

 

[Andie]

72 and rain on the way. 
Season is making a nice turn.  

[chescowxman]

Lesser chances of showers today across the County but still warmer than normal for nearing mid-September. Cold front crosses the area on Tuesday night and that will set up a below normal stretch of great weather that should last through the weekend. Would not be surprised to see some valley locations touch the 40's by Friday morning.

Records for today: High 99 (1897) / Low 34 (1924) / Rain 3.35" (1960)

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 76/61 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 73% of the possible time. There was just one HDD and the highest wind was just 14 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 76/55 the record high of 94 was set in 1931 and the record low of 32 was set in 1943. The highest rain fall amount of 3.21” fell in 1986. Last year the H/L was 69/61 and there was 0.31” of rain fall.

[Hawkeye]

0.35" in my gauge this morning.  It's something, but not much.  The south models were correct.  Even last evening the GFS and a few other models were still too far north.

This would be an ok rain if it was the start of a wet pattern, but, once again, there is no more rain in sight.  There is a good chance September will be our driest month of the year.

[Iceresistance]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

72 and rain on the way. 
Season is making a nice turn.  

Rain Shield collapsed just as it got to me, but at least there is more coming later today.

 

The biggest part? Much cooler temperatures! I already forgot what the 100*F temperatures feels like.

[OttumwaSnomow]

11 hours ago, Tom said:

Nice rain falling in YBY....had a good feeling this event would deliver for you and E IA peeps...how about you @Hawkeye?

I ended up with .95 here.  Which is way more than was expected  for several days leading to the system.   We planted 60 fall wildlife  plots for hunters that were progressing  well early Aug and most died since!  But were able to plant rye and oats in many when the models became  more bullish, another big gamble that appears  to pay off. Not one single above avg precip month  since Feb.

[Iceresistance]

Rain!

[Clinton]

The day went as expected, I received .25 inches of rain which will not put much of a dent in my 12.5 inch rainfall depict for the year.  Currently sprinkles with a nice and cool temp of 68.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Rain!

That's a nice good wall of water headed east on radar. Looking forward to it! Definitely an autumn feeling day today.

[Andie]

We have scattered showers out there now. More one the way.  
Mid to low 80’s.   

[james1976]

Signs of fall! Some leaves have fallen. Low 60s this evening. Took the dog for a walk. Lot of ppl out enjoying the cool weather. 

[james1976]

MPX says the TC metro may get down to 40 tomorrow night with some patchy frost in WI. Quite the change from the recent heat.

[OKwx2k4]

One truly unique thing this month is that there are an unusually high number of trees which have broken out in bright yellow splotches. 

Definitely very likely heat stress and surface drought-related from end of summer, but I haven't saw trees change this early in years. Probably 22-23 years. Can't remember which. 

I'm split on whether or not the overall foliage season will be good or bad. 

[Andie]

Big line of rain slowly moving across Tx/Okla.  Low 80’s. 

Might get bumpy tonight. 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

One truly unique thing this month is that there are an unusually high number of trees which have broken out in bright yellow splotches. 

Definitely very likely heat stress and surface drought-related from end of summer, but I haven't saw trees change this early in years. Probably 22-23 years. Can't remember which. 

I'm split on whether or not the overall foliage season will be good or bad. 

Same thing happening here, not looking like a colorful fall this year.

[Iceresistance]

Filmed this on September 6th, I wasn't kidding when I said that the storm I had was crazy on that day.

 

[Andie]

We received scattered rain overnight.  
69*. High of 85.  
More scattered rain showers on the way. 

[OKwx2k4]

Next 100 or so hours around my region look like autumn perfection followed by a late reminder of our summer before I believe this pattern finally starts to cave all the way. 

It'll put September basically on the lukewarm side of average if it all plays out. Will have at least a better base of data to look at in the next few days. Glad to see a cold front deliver all the way south of the Red River. 

[OKwx2k4]

3 minutes ago, Andie said:

We received scattered rain overnight.  
69*. High of 85.  
More scattered rain showers on the way. 

I bet that feels like a sigh of relief. Was just saying how glad I was to see that. 

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Next 100 or so hours around my region look like autumn perfection followed by a late reminder of our summer before I believe this pattern finally starts to cave all the way. 

It'll put September basically on the lukewarm side of average if it all plays out. Will have at least a better base of data to look at in the next few days. Glad to see a cold front deliver all the way south of the Red River. 

This, in my opinion, is a big clue that nature is showing a signal that a new pattern is forthcoming for the Autumn.  In the past few La Nina seasons, CF's struggled to push all the way down into the Red River valley and the "resilient ridge" kept blossoming.  Times are changing and I'm glad to see my fellow friends down south are enjoying a much needed break from the Heat.

[Tom]

The gloomy, wet and dreary day yesterday was the epitome of an October "ish" stratiform rain.  Classic frontal boundary draped across the MW/Lower Lakes creating an I-80/88 special around here where many locations received close to an inch of rain.  ORD received 0.77" and that's close to what I got also.  This was the perfect kind of soaking we needed as the area was upgraded to Abnormal Dry last week.