September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

@Clinton, I'm curious to know if Gary has commented at all about what he's seeing in the modeling for OCT?  I don't follow his paid blog and since we are getting closer to the period when the old LRC begins to fade out, he usually says whats on his mind.

[mlgamer]

Topeka has officially received only 0.30" of rain for Sept and is running a -1.76" deficit for the month after an already very dry meteorological summer. The models are backing off any beneficial rain for the short term anyway though still some hope for the end of the week. We just can't buy a decent rain around here.

[Black Hole]

Long range GFS...I know. But I did like how it sucks a TC into a deep trough that shakes up the pattern and builds the west coast ridge. I've seen this happen plenty of times before so its possible even if not likely at this time. The downstream development drops that crazy cut off into the southern Plains. 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

Topeka has officially received only 0.30" of rain for Sept and is running a -1.76" deficit for the month after an already very dry meteorological summer. The models are backing off any beneficial rain for the short term anyway though still some hope for the end of the week. We just can't buy a decent rain around here.

Very similar story for us in Omaha as well with just over a half inch of rainfall this month so far... we had a decent 45 day run from early July to mid-August, however the rain spigot turned off quickly after that as the heat set in and moderate to severe drought conditions are now returning across Eastern Nebraska. 

Hopefully this weekend will deliver some much needed rainfall, however the lack of agreement with the models on where the heaviest rain will setup has me wondering. 

[Tom]

@bud2380 @Hawkeye could be a surprising soaker tonight...

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, I'm curious to know if Gary has commented at all about what he's seeing in the modeling for OCT?  I don't follow his paid blog and since we are getting closer to the period when the old LRC begins to fade out, he usually says whats on his mind.

No I haven't.  I don't have a subscription though. 

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Long range GFS...I know. But I did like how it sucks a TC into a deep trough that shakes up the pattern and builds the west coast ridge. I've seen this happen plenty of times before so its possible even if not likely at this time. The downstream development drops that crazy cut off into the southern Plains. 

There's good stuff all over that run for crossing into October. I agree with the emphasis on "long range" but realistically that's where this is headed. 

[james1976]

18z GFS has 50s and a soaking rain here Saturday. Local met has low 70s but also mentions a soaker. Trends are looking pretty good up here. Haven't had a system like this in quite some time. We'll see how it plays out.

[Tom]

@Clinton I like your chances of getting some good rain outta this tiny, but potent little wave...

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 67/49. There was no rain fall the sun was out just 27% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 17 MPH out of the N.  For today the average H/L is 73/52 the record high of 91 was set in 1908 the record low of 36 was set in 1929, 1979 and 2020. The record rain fall amount of 1.73” fell in 1988. The sun is above the horizon for 12H and 19M about the same as March 24th Last year the H/L was 79/62 and there was a trace of rain fall.

[Andie]

The last week of September spells it out with the arrival of Fall.  
Not enough rain though.  
Tuesday night brings a swift set of showers

[chescowxman]

Our great autumnal weather continues for the remainder of this week. Temps should tend to average a bit below normal for latter September. Tonight looks to be the chilliest night with many lower spots across the county seeing temps falling into the 40's. Rain chances increase from south to north by Saturday afternoon.

Records for today: High 92 (1983) / Low 36 (1943) / Rain 3.27" (1894)

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton I like your chances of getting some good rain outta this tiny, but potent little wave...

I've been keeping my eye on this trying not to jinx it lol.  Let get this rain party started!  Things are looking good late Saturday as well!

[Iceresistance]

Uh oh

[Andie]

59 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Uh oh

Yeah that front will have some energy in it.  DFW will catch some storms 

[Hawkeye]

Mother Nature gave us trash yet again overnight and this morning.  There was very little heavy rain anywhere in the area, but the best rain still split north and south of Cedar Rapids.  I got some thunder, particularly from one decent cell, but it was tiny and passed through in about two minutes.  The rest of the rain was very light.  I finished with only 0.16".

We are now drier from May-Sep this year than we were in 2012... 12 inches below normal.

[Bryan1117]

Made a trip up to Boone, IA this morning for a customer training event and they got absolutely dumped on up there as storms trained continuously over the area… I have no idea how much rain fell, however all the ditches were full of runoff. 

Drove out from Omaha at 6:00am this morning and most of the drive was accompanied by occasional downpours and some of the most vivid lightning I have seen… definitely  will be a day trip that I will remember LOL.

Heading back west now out of Des Moines and finally out of the torrential rains… meanwhile it looks warm and dry as usual back home.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Mother Nature gave us trash yet again overnight and this morning.  There was very little heavy rain anywhere in the area, but the best rain still split north and south of Cedar Rapids.  I got some thunder, particularly from one decent cell, but it was tiny and passed through in about two minutes.  The rest of the rain was very light.  I finished with only 0.16".

We are now drier from May-Sep this year than we were in 2012... 12 inches below normal.

Hopefully some relief is on the way for both of us.  Like how the GFS has shifted east even with the rain chances over the weekend. 

[Tom]

Just think about the possibilities of this slow moving system in the Winter....High over Low and Easterly Flow!

[Tom]

24 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Hopefully some relief is on the way for both of us.  Like how the GFS has shifted east even with the rain chances over the weekend. 

This is going to be a fun system to track...a multi day system stuck under a massive Hudson Bay Block...

[Hawkeye]

Latest op Euro.... yes, please.  This entire region desperately needs this.

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Hopefully some relief is on the way for both of us.  Like how the GFS has shifted east even with the rain chances over the weekend. 

I know we need the rain but I’m glad it’s moving east as i have some big outdoor events this weekend lined up

[OKwx2k4]

Basically, if this happens or even close this winter, I'll be in snow or precip for like 7 days straight. 

Those maps are a HUGE blessing for those suffering drought and I'm thrilled to see it. 

@Iceresistance, these storms look like they've got a little thump in them. Will be a bumpy evening.

[Clinton]

50 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I know we need the rain but I’m glad it’s moving east as i have some big outdoor events this weekend lined up

I'll take all of it! Lol

[Iceresistance]

49 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Basically, if this happens or even close this winter, I'll be in snow or precip for like 7 days straight. 

Those maps are a HUGE blessing for those suffering drought and I'm thrilled to see it. 

@Iceresistance, these storms look like they've got a little thump in them. Will be a bumpy evening.

I am watching the models closely, I got NAMed

Only model with storms coming from NW Oklahoma

[Black Hole]

Mostly a disappointment so far with everything falling apart as it came in. I see some beefy storms across central and SW OK and near DFW this afternoon. I'd be surprised if any of that made it in here, but once the LLJ gets going we should see storms light up near and north of the boundary cutting from near Le Flore County up through north-central OK. Latest HRRR hinting at the general idea of what I am looking at. With the warm advection and lift from the jet in this airmass, we should do well up here tonight...but we will see!

[Andie]

There’s a good chance I’ll see some rain around 10 tonight in far SW Tarrant Co/Ft Worth. 

[Iceresistance]

Goodness, the thunder is crazy!

[Iceresistance]

TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEE

[OKwx2k4]

33 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEE

That's crazy stuff. 

[Clinton]

Big storms look possible for some of us this weekend. The timing of the front looks good for the KC and Des Moines to see some severe weather Saturday evening. 

 

[Tom]

Boy, the forecast has went from 80's and sunshine to now daily chances of rain and storms.  Gosh, I was hoping to see wall-2-wall SEP sunshine but that's not happening as this pattern remains active.  Maybe next week it calms down a bit and gives some of you west of here more rain.  Share the wealth!

Every model pretty much is showing more clouds and rain through tomorrow night.  Please bring out the sunshine Fri- Sun!

It appears mother nature is going to generate the "Monsoon of the Midwest"...

 

[Tom]

As for my friends out in AZ, it appears they have turned the corner and more of an Autumn pattern settles in with temps trending SOUTH.  Oh, what a pleasant 10 day forecast this is for my fellow Arizonan's.  This weekend looks wonderful...

[Hawkeye]

I got another 0.26" of rain last night, so yesterday's event total (0.42") was decent.

[Andie]

17 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEE

That’s a real nightmare.   
We got skunked in the Ft Worth area. 
Currently 94* but humidity at 38%.  Not bad.  
Nice change arriving Sunday.  

[Black Hole]

Warm advection storms developed around 11 PM last night, and continued off and on all night for me. I ended up with 1.41", one of the highest totals in Tulsa. Lots and lots of loud thunder. I only watched the first round since I am so tired but it was fun. My son said we had some small hail with the final round around 7 am but I was trying to ignore it ha

[Black Hole]

17 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEE

That storm really was decent, but nothing unusual from a reflectivity standpoint. But it did have a really strong mid level meso and I guess that was enough to really crank out the hail. One of the 2.5" reports came from an SPC employee so it was definitely legit. 

[hawkstwelve]

The GFS doing GFS things in the long range. 

It'll never happen like this but kinda fun to be on the precipice of that time of year...

[Clinton]

NAM and Euro showing some decent rains in my area tomorrow evening.  The GFS has yet to get on board.

[Black Hole]

It'll be interesting to see how this setup shakes out tomorrow. Looks to be a MCS during the late afternoon in an unstable and sheared environment. Most recent guidance is mostly south of Tulsa. Generally most models show a pretty good wind threat as the main hazard. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

It'll be interesting to see how this setup shakes out tomorrow. Looks to be a MCS during the late afternoon in an unstable and sheared environment. Most recent guidance is mostly south of Tulsa. Generally most models show a pretty good wind threat as the main hazard. 

Tough forecast indeed, likely a Slight Risk needed to Central Oklahoma.

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Tough forecast indeed, likely a Slight Risk needed to Central Oklahoma.

I agree. I'd be surprised if they didn't add that on the next update. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

I seriously  hope these next several  days produce  some long awaited heavy rain! I had .15 yesterday  while many spots around had 1 to 3 inches.  Its been rinse and repeat all yr!  Why are heavy rain events so spotty! Its only rained  over 1 inch 2 times in 2023 mby!  1.52 for sept  now. Month after month after month of deficits!!! Summer after summer as well. With a couple exceptions  for 11 yrs. My pond is almost dried up.  Some people  can't get  a new pond ful for 3 plus years here!! Whens last legit flood warning? June 2021 very isolated.  Could ride a bike across the Desmoines river here now.  But hey theres water. Most creeks long dried up most of the yr!

[Hawkeye]

3 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I seriously  hope these next several  days produce  some long awaited heavy rain! I had .15 yesterday  while many spots around had 1 to 3 inches.  Its been rinse and repeat all yr!  Why are heavy rain events so spotty! Its only rained  over 1 inch 2 times in 2023 mby!  1.52 for sept  now. Month after month after month of deficits!!! Summer after summer as well. With a couple exceptions  for 11 yrs. My pond is almost dried up.  Some people  can't get  a new pond ful for 3 plus years here!! Whens last legit flood warning? June 2021 very isolated.  Could ride a bike across the Desmoines river here now.  But hey theres water. Most creeks long dried up most of the yr!

Unfortunately, the model trend is awful.  A dry ridge is expected to be parked over the lakes and won't budge.  The big low moving in from the west will hit a wall.  Western Iowa is ok, but eastern Iowa is in trouble.

[Clinton]

A potentially wet and stormy period over the next week gets started today in the middle of the country. Many of us need every drop that is being modeled and much more hopefully there will be enough lift in eastern Iowa for @Hawkeyeto get in on the action. 

As shown above @Iceresistanceand @CentralNebWeathershould see some strong storms today and the SPC has a large risk area for Saturday. 

Plenty of heat and instability Saturday evening for big storms in mby with a forecasted high of 87.

WPC rainfall forecast for the next 7 days. Oklahoma folks and Andie look to score big.

[Andie]

Hoping these make good on their promise.   We’ve had a lot of promises and very little rain. It’s missed me every time.  

[chescowxman]

A nice couple of day's to close out the week across Chester County before rain arrives toward Saturday morning lasting through Sunday early PM. The Phightin Phils may have some issues getting in their Saturday game vs. the Mets.

Records for today: HIgh 100 (1895) / Low 30 (1956) / Rain 4.30" (1979)

[Clinton]

19 minutes ago, Andie said:

Hoping these make good on their promise.   We’ve had a lot of promises and very little rain. It’s missed me every time.  

Same here. I'm hoping as the new weather pattern evolves and a El Nino influence will change our fortunes soon.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 78/57. There was 0.02” of rain fall (I had 0.07”) There were 3 CDD’s the highest wind speed was 20 MPH out of the S. The sun was out 57% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 72/51 the record high of 95 was set in 2017 this is the 2nd  day of heat wave of 2017 and the next 6 days  will all be 90 or better. The record low of 32 was set in 1969. The record rain fall amount of 3.16” fell in 1947. Last year it was a warm 84/61.

The next week looks to be mild with just a small chance of showers. Highs will range from near 80 today before dropping down to the upper 60’s by next Wednesday lows will be mostly in the 50’s At the current time I have 58 and cloudy skies

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies continue to show a lot of blocking over Canada and into the Arctic as we open up the 1st couple weeks of OCT.  As @Black Holementioned in the winter thread, the Euro weeklies suggested the STJ to start ramping up next month and this 500mb pattern pretty much sums that up perfectly.  I remember vividly last year seeing hints of a trough in the SW as we got closer to OCT and look what happened for those in the SW as most states and ski resorts had record snows and rainfall.  REPEAT coming?  It sure does look good to start off on a wet and active note.

 

Week 3-4 Temp & Precip...