September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

Heads up @CentralNebWeatherand Oklahoma peeps.

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

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Tornado potential increasing TODAY for two subtle preceding impulses across western Nebraska and southern OK into northern Texas this late afternoon and evening. Working to activate storm chase mode a day early

[OKwx2k4]

43 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Heads up @CentralNebWeatherand Oklahoma peeps.

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

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Tornado potential increasing TODAY for two subtle preceding impulses across western Nebraska and southern OK into northern Texas this late afternoon and evening. Working to activate storm chase mode a day early

Going to be quite a day in some parts of our state, for sure. 

This is definitely quite a pattern shift we have seen and much more exciting at least than "day x of heat and drought". Although not saying its cold or even cool yet for most by any stretch.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Heads up @CentralNebWeatherand Oklahoma peeps.

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

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Tornado potential increasing TODAY for two subtle preceding impulses across western Nebraska and southern OK into northern Texas this late afternoon and evening. Working to activate storm chase mode a day early

Had a shower just move through at 1:15. Will be watching closely, as we have 7th and 8th grade football practice at 3:45. Dew has jumped to 67. Rather humid for this late in September and harvest in full swing. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just put in a Tornado Watch. Yikes. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro shows the rain starting overnight tomorrow and not really stopping until Wednesday, besides a couple short afternoon/morning breaks here or there. By Wednesday evening, we could be looking at 2-3 inches of rainfall which is desperately needed. We are still running a -6.16 inch deficit in YTD rainfall so at this point we will take anything we can get. Should also be some decent chances at thunderstorms, especially on Saturday, which is always exciting.

In the more near-term, today has been marked with cloudy skies and occasional showers with the current temp sitting at only 67 degrees. Very refreshing after the recent bout of heat we had again the past few days with highs in the 80s/90s. Looking forward to this pattern change!

[bud2380]

We have winter weather advisories in Montana and Idaho.  Only a couple inches expected though.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Tornado Warning. We are in the shelter at school with our teams until 4:45 pm. 

[Bryan1117]

19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Tornado Warning. We are in the shelter at school with our teams until 4:45 pm. 

Stay safe my friend!

[CentralNebWeather]

35 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Stay safe my friend!

Thanks. All good for now. Both our middle school girls and varsity girls were hosting volleyball games at the schools. They and all fans went to shelters. Got heavy rain and a lot of wind. Haven’t heard any storm reports. I’ll post if I hear anything. 

[CentralNebWeather]

More rain approaching from the west. 

[Black Hole]

Didn't really work out for much for eastern OK. Nothing that was obviously severe and at this point that probably won't happen. Model trends are looking good for lots of rain overnight though. HRRR really going to town on the latest run. Probably overdone, but still some good potential. 

[Clinton]

Some nice storms firing up in eastern Kansas.  Slowly moving my way, not sure if I'll be able to real them in or not.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

Pouring rain as of 9:15 pm. Parts of our county are in flash flood warnings. 1-3” or more being reported. Great rain.  

[Clinton]

The storms have made it here, lots of thunder and lightning. Hopefully it will be a decent rain event!

[Tom]

7 hours ago, Clinton said:

The storms have made it here, lots of thunder and lightning. Hopefully it will be a decent rain event!

I'm happy for you bud...it looks like the next few days will be some of the best chances for appreciable rain you've received all throughout the warm season.  Is that accurate?  I haven't really paid attn sinceI was out in AZ through the Spring.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a warm summer like day with the official H/L of 80/58. There was no rain fall and the sun was out 41% of the time. For today the average H/L is 72/51 the record high of 95 was in the heat wave of 2017 and the record low of 33 was in the long cold snap at the end of September 1976 when there were 10 of 11 nights with lows in the low 40’s to the upper 20’s with lows of 29 on the 24th and 32 on the 28th The record rain fall amount of 3.14” fell in 1988. Last year the H/L was 63/45 and there was a trace of rain fall.

Today looks to be the last of the warms days for a while as highs will be near 80. The rest of the next week will see highs in the mid 70’s over the weekend then dropping to the uppers 60’s to low 70’s Lows will be mostly in the low to mid 50’s There does not look to be much in the way of rain fall.

[Andie]

Sunday afternoon will be our last hot day. We’ll trade the mid/high 90’s for the 80’s for a week. 
This has been a long hot summer.  Tough on everyone/thing.  
Sunday should bring us some showers with that front as well.  Our low early Monday should be 70!!   Ahhh!

[Stormy]

On 9/19/2023 at 1:35 PM, Bryan1117 said:

Made a trip up to Boone, IA this morning for a customer training event and they got absolutely dumped on up there as storms trained continuously over the area… I have no idea how much rain fell, however all the ditches were full of runoff. 

Drove out from Omaha at 6:00am this morning and most of the drive was accompanied by occasional downpours and some of the most vivid lightning I have seen… definitely  will be a day trip that I will remember LOL.

Heading back west now out of Des Moines and finally out of the torrential rains… meanwhile it looks warm and dry as usual back home.

I was just east of the main rain area with mostly dry and warm wx continuing here as well. 

Edited September 22 by Stormy

[Clinton]

55 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm happy for you bud...it looks like the next few days will be some of the best chances for appreciable rain you've received all throughout the warm season.  Is that accurate?  I haven't really paid attn sinceI was out in AZ through the Spring.

It was a good rain last night I got .85 inches.  Looks like more is on the way later this morning and a good chance of some big storms tomorrow evening.  It's possible this will be my wettest weekend since last November!  I am over 13 inches below normal for the year. This forecast looks good though.

[Stormy]

On 9/19/2023 at 12:17 PM, Hawkeye said:

Mother Nature gave us trash yet again overnight and this morning.  There was very little heavy rain anywhere in the area, but the best rain still split north and south of Cedar Rapids.  I got some thunder, particularly from one decent cell, but it was tiny and passed through in about two minutes.  The rest of the rain was very light.  I finished with only 0.16".

We are now drier from May-Sep this year than we were in 2012... 12 inches below normal.

Only had 0.13" total here out of that system. My monthly total so far sitting at only an even 1".

My August total was only 1.80".

It's been extremely dry for parts of eastern Iowa this year! 

[Clinton]

Still many on here needing rain bad.  The drought in Iowa really intensified quick and myself and eastern Nebraska have been in drought for a year.  The deep south is in really bad shape as well. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like I got just under 3.0” last evening and overnight. The western part of my county got over 7.0”. Many reports over 5.0”. Will obviously stop the harvest for awhile. 

[Stormy]

Some of the models look a little wetter again for eastern Iowa this weekend after a day or two of backing off. Still not looking as good as it had earlier this week though. Maybe the system currently to the sw. can bring spotty showers today, but good showers are passing just east of Iowa as usual. 

[Clinton]

13 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Looks like I got just under 3.0” last evening and overnight. The western part of my county got over 7.0”. Many reports over 5.0”. Will obviously stop the harvest for awhile. 

Dang buddy share would ya lol.  What a summer it's been for you.

[Clinton]

It's the NAM but it's a drought relief dream.

[Hawkeye]

22 minutes ago, Stormy said:

Some of the models look a little wetter again for eastern Iowa this weekend after a day or two of backing off. Still not looking as good as it had earlier this week though. Maybe the system currently to the sw. can bring spotty showers today, but good showers are passing just east of Iowa as usual. 

Models mostly show the southwest Iowa disturbance lifting northeast and dumping heavy rain north of our area.

[OKwx2k4]

Really glad for the nice soaking rainfall this morning. 

Looking ahead, looks like we literally hold the same temps for 8-10 days straight and then a good crash is imminent. Going from 80/60 to 70/45 is going to be a good drop off but that crosses over into next month's discussion at this point. 

Very glad to see our friends up north picking up much needed rainfall. 

Texas should see more precip later in the season as we near late-autumn.

[chescowxman]

A pretty big early season noreaster is on the way that will impact the County this weekend. Look for rain to arrive shortly after midnight and fall heavy at times tomorrow through Sunday morning. It should become more showery in nature by Sunday into Monday before ending.

Of note tomorrow will likely see many of the higher spots across the area fail to escape the 50's for high temperatures....so a mighty chiller early fall day which arrives at 2:50am overnight tonight.

Records for today: High 99 (1895) / Low 31 (1904) / Rain 1.81" (1975)

[Niko]

Loos like the EC this upcoming weekend will get soaked from this TS. Its going to be one soggy, windy, chilly, raw, Autumn-like weekend for them. Highs in spots will remain in the upper 50's and lows pretty much remaining steady. 

 

Here in SMI, it is looking gorgeous. No rainfall is in sight. Temps mainly in the 70s. 

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models mostly show the southwest Iowa disturbance lifting northeast and dumping heavy rain north of our area.

Yeah it’s starting to look iffy here in Eastern Nebraska too for the weekend. Picked up around a quarter of an inch of rain this morning… however we might not get much more if things keep pushing north with this system. Long live the drought!

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's the NAM but it's a drought relief dream.

How is .5 and   with 1.40 inches  in  42 days any relief  here?  Almost every rain in 2023 have been spotty.   Isu did a study that iowas largest  rain statewide  was in feb!!!!  Feb is typically  one of driest month. These patterns  all stink and cant be sugar coated. Strips and stripes of moderate rains, big deal.  My area living in D3 severe  drought.   Same most of growing  seasons since 2012.

[BDT]

3 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Yeah it’s starting to look iffy here in Eastern Nebraska too for the weekend. Picked up around a quarter of an inch of rain this morning… however we might not get much more if things keep pushing north with this system. Long live the drought!

Tonights storms go north. Tomorrow is east. We are doomed either way. Nice and dry next week too ....blah

[Iceresistance]

Uhhhh O_O

Day 2 Enhanced now in place for @Black Hole and @OKwx2k4
Even though I do recommend Sunday to be enhanced based on these models, note for @Andie

[Black Hole]

Multiple rounds of storms early this morning left my just shy of an inch. My water year is over 42" now. Currently sunny and in the mid 70s. A perfect fall day if you ask me. 

[Black Hole]

We've got the enhanced for tomorrow evening from the SPC and a moderate risk of excessive rain from WPC. Should be a pretty interesting day. Good setup with plenty of shear, strong flow aloft, high instability, and forcing along a boundary. 

I expect supercells to form in the late afternoon or early evening in north-central OK into southeast KS, progressing east. Not everybody will get hit, but some will almost certainly see large hail and damaging winds. Low level wind profile supports a tornado risk too.

Of course...I won't be here so it'll probably go wild lol I'm going down to the gulf coast for a few days.

[westMJim]

The sun is out but getting a good shower. The temperature was 80 but now has dropped to 72.

[Clinton]

I wish the global models were a little more convincing for western Missouri for tomorrow night.  The HRRR and NAM still look good.  I expect a solid wall of water to move through, I hope everyone wanting rain gets some.

[Bryan1117]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I wish the global models were a little more convincing for western Missouri for tomorrow night.  The HRRR and NAM still look good.  I expect a solid wall of water to move through, I hope everyone wanting rain gets some.

Just sick and tired of everything splitting around here… what’s with these garbage weather patterns for Eastern Nebraska the last two years?

Not excited for Winter at all… looks like cold and no snow coming right up again.

[Clinton]

KC rainfall today was needed.  Only a trace today for mby.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

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Kansas City has picked up 0.47" of precipitation today...that is more than the last 38 days combined (0.30")

[Clinton]

17 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Just sick and tired of everything splitting around here… what’s with these garbage weather patterns for Eastern Nebraska the last two years?

Not excited for Winter at all… looks like cold and no snow coming right up again.

It's been that way here as I can't escape the D3.  Tomorrow night will be the last chance for at least the next 7 days.  Omega block forecasted to set up next week is not really our friend ATM. 

[Andie]

6 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Day 2 Enhanced now in place for @Black Hole and @OKwx2k4
Even though I do recommend Sunday to be enhanced based on these models, note for @Andie

I won’t hold my breath.   
We need a soaker.  

[Hawkeye]

The strong storms and heavy rain at the south end of the Iowa disturbance were not able to build southward enough to hit Cedar Rapids, so this morning's 5-minute downpour is all we get today.  I'm just hoping for a half inch tomorrow night.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was a summer like 82/58. Officially there was no rain fall but here in MBY I had a short but heavy shower with the sun out. The shower popped up right over head and dropped 0.05” of rain fall. At the airport there were 5 CDD’s yesterday and the highest wind speed was 19 MPH out of the S. The sun was out 76% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 71/50 the record high of 96 was set in the heat wave of 2017. The record low was a frosty 28 set in 1974. The record rain fall amount is 2.13” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 64/38.

[Clinton]

The SPC has put out an enhanced risk of severe weather for my area south into Oklahoma.

 MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage, and tornadoes, will be possible today across eastern parts of the Great Plains, and Mississippi Valley. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Eastern Great Plains/Mississippi Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over northern WY, advancing east toward the Black Hills, in line with latest model guidance. 60kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across NE to near FSD by 18z, then into northern MN during the overnight hours. This evolution will encourage a surface low to lift into northeast NE by 18z, with some deepening expected during the latter half of the period as the low occludes over southeastern ND by 24/12z. A north-south cluster of strong convection has evolved ahead of the upper trough over the High Plains from western NE into southwestern SD. This activity may continue through sunrise as it propagates east, aided by large-scale ascent ahead of the trough. Additionally, latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen ahead of this activity into western IA by mid day such that renewed development is likely. NAM aggressively strengthens the LLJ in excess of 60kt over south-central MN by late afternoon. Wind profiles and low-level shear will strengthen ahead of the deepening surface low. This supports the potential for supercells across the upper MS Valley, especially near/south of the northward-advancing warm front. Forecast soundings exhibit strong shear with substantial sfc-3km SRH, though lapse rates will remain weak. Aside from the threat for damaging winds with this pre-frontal activity, it appears environmental conditions also support a tornado risk. In addition to supercell threat, large-scale forcing may encourage some clustering and potential line segments. Severe risk will spread into central MN by late evening as the low occludes over the upper Red River (of the North) Valley. Farther south, high-level difluent flow will be noted across the lower MO Valley into eastern OK. 500mb flow is expected to strengthen south of I-70 to near the TX/OK Red River as weak height falls will be noted at these lower latitudes. Surface front will advance into eastern KS, arcing across central OK into northwest TX by late afternoon. Strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of this wind shift, with surface temperatures forecast to rise into the mid 90s to near 100F from portions of western OK into northwest TX. As a result, convective temperatures will be breached as CINH is reduced. Scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the wind shift, initially over eastern KS, then southwest along the boundary at least into central OK. Forecast soundings exhibit seasonally steep lapse rates with high PW values (approaching 2 inches). Wind profiles strongly favor organized convection and initial activity should be supercellular in nature. With time, one or more MCSs may ultimately evolve over the ENH Risk area, with southward propagation expected across eastern OK/western AR late in the period. Hail should be common with the initial activity, some of it likely exceeding 2 inches in diameter. While a few tornadoes may be noted with the supercells, storm mode may ultimately lead to a complex that could produce damaging winds as convection spreads southeast during the overnight hours.

[Clinton]

Local view from EAX. Really hope a large complex of rain can roll through.  A little worried about a broken line.

[Tom]

Welcome to the 1st day of Astronomical Fall!  On this day, or thereabouts, the sun sets over the Arctic and we begin the quick transition to Winter up north, while those of us who live in the mid latitude enjoy the volatility of weather as the seasons begin to really change.  Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow....

 

As I take a gander way up in the Arctic regions, this 500mb map is starting to look very interesting as the Ural Blocking will be a key component this Autumn and Winter.  The massive Hudson Bay ridge that has slowed down the systems this week/weekend may also be another player in the new pattern.  There are many fascinating implications that lie ahead as we finish off SEP and head into OCT.

 

According to the CFSv2 weeklies, if the Ural Blocking continues as suggested, look out below b/c this will weaken the Polar Vortex and increase the probability of a colder winter seas for the U.S.  In fact, by the middle of OCT, we could very well see a definitive sign of this pattern as a Cross Polar Flow is showing up.

 

 

This is usually the 1st day (10/6) of when the new LRC pattern sets up for the mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere....nice blocking setting up over Canada/Greenland (-NAO/+PNA)...

 

 

 

 

Looks quite active for the majority of our SUB....

[Clinton]

Here is the CPCs outlook for October. 

 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Welcome to the 1st day of Astronomical Fall!  On this day, or thereabouts, the sun sets over the Arctic and we begin the quick transition to Winter up north, while those of us who live in the mid latitude enjoy the volatility of weather as the seasons begin to really change.  Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow....

 

As I take a gander way up in the Arctic regions, this 500mb map is starting to look very interesting as the Ural Blocking will be a key component this Autumn and Winter.  The massive Hudson Bay ridge that has slowed down the systems this week/weekend may also be another player in the new pattern.  There are many fascinating implications that lie ahead as we finish off SEP and head into OCT.

 

According to the CFSv2 weeklies, if the Ural Blocking continues as suggested, look out below b/c this will weaken the Polar Vortex and increase the probability of a colder winter seas for the U.S.  In fact, by the middle of OCT, we could very well see a definitive sign of this pattern as a Cross Polar Flow is showing up.

 

 

This is usually the 1st day (10/6) of when the new LRC pattern sets up for the mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere....nice blocking setting up over Canada/Greenland (-NAO/+PNA)...

 

 

 

 

Looks quite active for the majority of our SUB....

So looking forward to something new and can't deny some of the early indicators are very positive.  I love seeing the cold indicators towards the end of October.  Gary routinely says the last week of Oct and the first week of November are the most important in determining what kinda winter lies ahead.

[Tom]

When I saw this Canadian fire map, it struck me again how nature is showing signs and early predictors of where warm anomalies (aka, blocking) could very well set up.  That NW NAMER region that is en fuego could be an indication of where a blocking pattern develops and cycles over and over.

 

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Here is the CPCs outlook for October. 

 

That screams severe weather chances for my area