September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Iceresistance]

57 minutes ago, Andie said:

Low 90’s for the week ahead. 
No rain in sight.  

It seems there will be no rain until October...

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

I saw this on the news this morning...has anyone else seen a robust acorn crop this year?  This article doesn't necessarily suggest anything of note for predicting the winter season...

https://libanswers.nybg.org/faq/222824#:~:text=The idea goes like this,seeds in a mast year.

Yes my trees are loaded!

[sumweatherdude]

Based on the current forecast, September in KC will end up several degrees above normal (we're +2 right now, and +4 if only considering daily highs).  We will have had 8 of the last 10 Septembers be above normal for temps. 

[Andie]

8 more days in the low to mid nineties.  
Then a chance of rain.  
This really stinks!   
91*. 

[Black Hole]

I'm in corpus christi for a few days. It's rather unreasonable weather Low 90s and humid every day.

[Hawkeye]

No rain here today, so my September total will be 1.08", the driest month in a year full of very dry months.

[westMJim]

It looks like we are going to start October on the very warm side. With highs forecasted from the upper 70’s to low 80’s it will be the warmest start to any October since 2017. And there is a good chance that this year will be warmer than October 2017. There has been some discussion on if there is a warm fall (October into November) if the winter that followed was a snow one or not. In looking at some past warm Octobers that is not always the case. In fact more cold falls have had more snow winter snow than warm falls. So we shall see. So far there has not been any rain fall here in MBY well there has been a trace. At the current time it is cloudy and 59.

[Tom]

It’s been a gloomy and damp morning with about 1” of rain since yesterday morning.  It’s so grey, gloomy and wet outside as this system continues to spin and swirl over IL.  Pretty cool looking satellite loop watching this storm system track slowly through the region.  I can’t wait for the sun to make a return and dry things out tomorrow and the weekend.  Gotta tell ya, those 80’s are looking mighty nice!

[Iceresistance]

11 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I'm in corpus christi for a few days. It's rather unreasonable weather Low 90s and humid every day.

You need to go back to Corpus Christi around October 13th!

[Niko]

Thankfully, no drought here in S MI.

[Niko]

This blocking pattern will hopefully break and allow weather systems to move along instead of stalling by tomorrow. Sun to return, along w warmer temps heading towards the end of the week and into the weekend.  Really looking forward to the 80s next week or near 80 at least and lows in the cool, refreshing 50s. You simply cannot beat this type of weather. Best time of the year. As for rainfall.....Zilch!!!!

 

Btw: I took a peak at the extended that takes my neck of the woods into December and man, that pacific jet will be roaring. Very strong. But it does get a little better by mid-month. Typical El Nino weather. We will see how it goes, but a lot of ups and downs is looking likely for that month, weatherwise and tempwise. 

[mlgamer]

After missing out on three out of four rain chances this past Thursday through Saturday the very warm and dry weather has resumed here. I like summer as much as anyone but I'm more than ready for crisp fall weather with hopefully some rain to boot.

[chescowxman]

The sun has returned! Of note I did record the first temperature in the 40's this morning since June 8th. Today and tomorrow look dry before more showers by Friday AM. We then clear out for the weekend and begin a nice warming trend. We should see well above normal temps by Sunday and see it continue for potentially the first couple weeks of October. As Ben Franklin said autumn in PA is the "most agreeable time of year" from a weather wise perspective. It should also be great weather as the Phightin Phils begin another Red October on Tuesday! Go Phillies!

Records for today: High 92 (1900) / Low 30 (1947) / Rain 4.02" (1985)

[Stormy]

On 9/26/2023 at 6:00 AM, Tom said:

I saw this on the news this morning...has anyone else seen a robust acorn crop this year?  This article doesn't necessarily suggest anything of note for predicting the winter season...

https://libanswers.nybg.org/faq/222824#:~:text=The idea goes like this,seeds in a mast year.

I really think it's just a natural cycle like it is with apple and other fruit trees here that I take care of. Every other year apples will over produce and take energy out of the tree, and it needs a year to recover, and in the following year it again has a huge crop unless something upsets the cycle like a late frost damaging the blooms. If most blooms would be damaged in a heavy-producing year, it of course wouldn't  produce many apples either, but would then the following year because it would have plenty of energy that didn't go into producing apples. But then again, I don't know too much about nut trees so the same principle might not apply. 

 

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

You need to go back to Corpus Christi around October 13th!

Yeah I didn't realize about the eclipse when I booked this trip! Oh well, I'll be happy to be back with the cooler temps up north. 

[Black Hole]

I hope we can see something like this soon! 

[sumweatherdude]

My location on the south side of the KC metro area has had almost 5x as much rain as the official amount at the airport.  4.8 inches vs. 1.01 inch.  

[OKwx2k4]

On 9/26/2023 at 1:11 PM, sumweatherdude said:

Based on the current forecast, September in KC will end up several degrees above normal (we're +2 right now, and +4 if only considering daily highs).  We will have had 8 of the last 10 Septembers be above normal for temps. 

Got a good feeling that cycle should break soon.

The late season warm spells have made every summer seem too long for the last decade. It flips, eventually. I know it will. 

I'd imagine our Marches/April's have been averaging cooler than average during the same span. 

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I hope we can see something like this soon! 

I saw that earlier. Let the fun begin.

I've believed that fall would arrive like a crash, so this fits perfectly.

[CentralNebWeather]

Have had wonderful weather the last week. 3” rain last Thursday followed by temps in the 70’s and lows in the upper 40’s through this morning. Well, that’s about to change. Highs in the upper 80’s to mid 90’s through Monday are on tap. To make things worse, potential record warm low temps in the upper 60’s to 70 until Tuesday with a south wind from 15-25 mph or higher sustained all days and nights. 

[Black Hole]

6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I saw that earlier. Let the fun begin.

I've believed that fall would arrive like a crash, so this fits perfectly.

It's interesting that there seems to be some ensemble support for something like this so I'm hopeful!

[Bryan1117]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Have had wonderful weather the last week. 3” rain last Thursday followed by temps in the 70’s and lows in the upper 40’s through this morning. Well, that’s about to change. Highs in the upper 80’s to mid 90’s through Monday are on tap. To make things worse, potential record warm low temps in the upper 60’s to 70 until Tuesday with a south wind from 15-25 mph or higher sustained all days and nights. 

It’s been the same here in Eastern Nebraska minus the plentiful rainfall… this weekend looks like an unwanted extension of summer - low to mid 90’s in late September and early October is too much. Anytime this dry and abnormally warm pattern wants to break will be very welcomed by most around here.

[Clinton]

It's going to be a warm next 5 days for mby. Both the Euro and GFS advertising a nice cold front and a chance for rain later next week. In fact it might be down right chilly for some next weekend. A large trough in the middle of the country to kick off the new LRC sounds good to me!

 

[westMJim]

Will 0 sunshine yesterday was a rather cool day with the official H/L at Grand Rapids of 64/58. There was a trace of rain fall, 4 HDD’s the highest wind speed was 21 MPH out of the E. Overnight I recorded 0.02” of rain fall that is the 1st rain fall for this week.  For today the average H/L is now down to 69/48. The record high of 86 was set in 1905 and the record low of 27 was set in 1991. The record rain fall amount of 1.96” fell in 1999. Last year the H/L was 54/47 and there was a trace of rain fall.

The start of October still looks to be on the very warm side. With a good amount of sun highs look to be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s and lows in the mid 50’s to near 60. This is well above average. My wife and I are going to the Tigers game on Saturday. As we all know this weekend will be the last games for Miguel Cabrera. Of course, this is a day game and unfortunately there is no shade at Comerica Park. So with highs in the 70’s with a lot of sun it will be a warm one. The last time we went to a day game was many years ago and it was in May and even thought it was only near 70 that day it was very warm in the sun and there is almost no shade in the whole park. But it should be a fun time.

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's going to be a warm next 5 days for mby. Both the Euro and GFS advertising a nice cold front and a chance for rain later next week. In fact it might be down right chilly for some next weekend. A large trough in the middle of the country to kick off the new LRC sounds good to me!

 

This is finally some good news… the cooler weather will be welcomed for sure. Good timing as I will be helping out with at a big outdoor show for work next weekend down in Springfield, MO.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's going to be a warm next 5 days for mby. Both the Euro and GFS advertising a nice cold front and a chance for rain later next week. In fact it might be down right chilly for some next weekend. A large trough in the middle of the country to kick off the new LRC sounds good to me!

 

Boom Baby!  Its literally a snap into a brand new pattern...its so fascinating watching the evolution of the weather over the mid lat's as we encompass Day 1 of the LRC right around OCT 7th.  

For those interested, here was Gary Lezak's graphic explaining his theory behind the starting point and nature's way of signaling his theory behind why the LRC starts in OCT.

[chescowxman]

Today will be our 15th straight below normal day across Chester County. Dreary chilly weather returns later today through early Saturday AM. The heaviest rain looks to stay east of Chesco but up to a 0.50" of rain can't be ruled out especially in eastern spots. The Sun returns on Sunday and we begin a nice warming trend for the first week of October. However, signs point to that being short lived as some chillier weather looks likely to move back in during the 2nd week of the 10th month!

Records for today: High 87 (1921) / Low 30 (1947) / Rain 2.97" (2004)

[CentralNebWeather]

94 degrees at 2:45 pm. Not at all ready for this again. Looks like heat through Monday. Much cooler from Tuesday on. 

[westMJim]

For anyone who wants to take a road trip here is the latest on this falls color in Michigan.

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/weather-news/peak-colors-are-starting-to-emerge-in-parts-of-the-upper-peninsula/

Note at the end of the article it is mentioned that this weeks warmth could slow the process. I for one do not buy into that. I feel that sunny days and clear nights have more to do with the color change and also being dry may also help3  

[CentralNebWeather]

[CentralNebWeather]

Still 80 degrees at 10 pm. A/C is back on for the next 4 days. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

Boom Baby!  Its literally a snap into a brand new pattern...its so fascinating watching the evolution of the weather over the mid lat's as we encompass Day 1 of the LRC right around OCT 7th.  

For those interested, here was Gary Lezak's graphic explaining his theory behind the starting point and nature's way of signaling his theory behind why the LRC starts in OCT.

It wont be a new pattern  if the trough drops east of Iowa as it has done  over and over and over.  Will there ever be a trough east side of rockies to Mississippi  river that last more than 1 or 2 days!!! Seems rinse  and repeat to me. Trough east.

[Hawkeye]

8 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

It wont be a new pattern  if the trough drops east of Iowa as it has done  over and over and over.  Will there ever be a trough east side of rockies to Mississippi  river that last more than 1 or 2 days!!! Seems rinse  and repeat to me. Trough east.

There is not much hope for us.  Next week's cold front should move through quickly, with just a little bit of rain if we're lucky.  After that it's bone dry nw flow again.  It has been a broken record all year and nothing is going to change.  I'm not optimistic about winter, either... probably warm and dry while storms track well south and east.

[Niko]

Where is is sun?? One whole week of cloudcover w scattered showers, although, my area did pick up near an inch of rainfall Wednesday nite. Yikes. This blocking pattern will break up starting today and sunshine will return, especially for the weekend. Big warm up coming but also lookout late next week, big cooldown.. My high will be ranging from the 80s during the early part of the workweek and not getting outta the 50s for highs by weeks end w lows in the lower 40s and not surprised to see some 30s in spots. An abrupt change!! 

[Niko]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

There is not much hope for us.  Next week's cold front should move through quickly, with just a little bit of rain if we're lucky.  After that it's bone dry nw flow again.  It has been a broken record all year and nothing is going to change.  I'm not optimistic about winter, either... probably warm and dry while storms track well south and east.

Yes, the storm track this winter will be too far south, then, riding up the EC. Bombs will be going on there this winter for them. I believe we will get our share from time to time, but not as much as folks to our south and in the NE corridor. Members on here living in the south will have a lot of fun tracking storms this cold season. @Clinton, @OKwx2k4, @Andie, @mlgamer, look out.

[Tom]

Happy Friday all!  The sun made an appearance yesterday afternoon from time to time and was welcomed.  Once the fog and low clouds clear this morning, I'm sooo looking forward to more ample sunshine and warmer temps.  It was getting a bit depressing with cloudy and dreary skies for days.  Anyway, what a great stretch of autumn weather this weekend into next.  Enjoy it folks because as @Nikosaid it is going to turn abruptly cooler...cold up north??  First flakes...maybe??  

 

 

[Tom]

Has anyone on here been to Hot Springs, AR?  @OKwx2k4its kinda by your area and was wondering if you had ever visited this place.  Looks really nice and naturesque.

[Clinton]

24 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yes, the storm track this winter will be too far south, then, riding up the EC. Bombs will be going on there this winter for them. I believe we will get our share from time to time, but not as much as folks to our south and in the NE corridor. Members on here living in the south will have a lot of fun tracking storms this cold season. @Clinton, @OKwx2k4, @Andie, @mlgamer, look out.

Of course I want snow but I have to have a wet pattern.  Give me rain or snow just moisture please!

[CentralNebWeather]

Only dropped to 70 this morning. That is our normal high for the end of September. 3 more days of 90’s it appears. 

[chescowxman]

We have picked up .05" of rain this AM we could see a few more showers today but most of the heavy rain will be to our east and north. Clouds linger tomorrow but the sun returns and finally some warmer weather by Sunday and this sunny above normal stretch should last till next weekend when we see temps slip back below normal averages for early October.

Records for today: High 93 (1921)/ Low 31 (1947) / Rain 1.84 (1924)

[Black Hole]

A couple of things I'm watching in the next 10 days. Of course in the shorter term looks like a good chance of rain/thunder in about 5-6 days along with the much cooler air pouring in behind this system. Probably going to see a few days in the 70s with sunny skies, looking forward to it!

Also, there is some possibility that any tropical system could get pulled into the southern states as the GFS shows in the 7-10 day period, should such a system develop given the flow pattern. 

[Black Hole]

EPS mean continues working towards a more favorable pattern mid month as the major positive height anomalies start to migrate west in response to stronger troughing in the GOA. This would probably be a coolish pattern with dry backdoor troughs. But the GFS being further west could result in some downright chilly weather as the troughs would dig more favorable. Whether or not this happens yet is unknown but it should be more likely going forward. 

[Hoosier]

18 hours ago, westMJim said:

For anyone who wants to take a road trip here is the latest on this falls color in Michigan.

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/weather-news/peak-colors-are-starting-to-emerge-in-parts-of-the-upper-peninsula/

Note at the end of the article it is mentioned that this weeks warmth could slow the process. I for one do not buy into that. I feel that sunny days and clear nights have more to do with the color change and also being dry may also help3  

There are several factors that affect the timing and vibrancy of fall colors.  Temps are one of them.  How much that this upcomimg warmth will slow the process remains to be seen.  May still notice the colors progressing, but would it be at a faster rate if it weren't going to be warm?

[Hoosier]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

There is not much hope for us.  Next week's cold front should move through quickly, with just a little bit of rain if we're lucky.  After that it's bone dry nw flow again.  It has been a broken record all year and nothing is going to change.  I'm not optimistic about winter, either... probably warm and dry while storms track well south and east.

I'd root for the Nino to get as strong as possible.  Would increase the chances of warmth but it would also increase the chances of some moisture laden systems in the region.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

A couple of things I'm watching in the next 10 days. Of course in the shorter term looks like a good chance of rain/thunder in about 5-6 days along with the much cooler air pouring in behind this system. Probably going to see a few days in the 70s with sunny skies, looking forward to it!

Also, there is some possibility that any tropical system could get pulled into the southern states as the GFS shows in the 7-10 day period, should such a system develop given the flow pattern. 

I would love to see that system get pulled in off the pacific. Those type if systems have been big long lasting rain producers for me in the past.  The Euro also shows a system in a similar area at the end of the run.

[OKwx2k4]

11 hours ago, Tom said:

Has anyone on here been to Hot Springs, AR?  @OKwx2k4its kinda by your area and was wondering if you had ever visited this place.  Looks really nice and naturesque.

Believe it or not, I have never actually been there, but I do know the picturesque part to be truth. This whole area and northeast of me is really beautiful. A lot of the Ozarks are. I don't think you'd be disappointed. 

[Bryan1117]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Dry, windy, and hot… 95 degrees on September 29th - the joke is definitely on us. Thankfully the pattern changes next week… can’t freaking wait!

[hawkstwelve]

Had an outside chance at some thunderstorms today but they stayed to our WNW and we ended up with nothing, as per usual. September should end up with only 20% of normal rainfall (-2.05). We are also running +5.2 on average temp with tomorrow doing absolutely nothing to help that figure be any lower.

Ultimately warm and dry, just like most recent months. Hope October can finally flip the script.

[Clinton]

Not a good sign for temperatures when it's 71 in the morning and the average high is 74.

The good news is next weekend looks to be about 25 degrees cooler and lows will dip into the 40s for the first time this season.  I think most of us are ready for this.